That's what I've been asking myself about these Raptors of late. What's different? What has changed about this team that's made them so poor late in games this season?
If you're wondering what's made me think about that question. Consider the following:
- The Raptors are one of only two teams in the NBA that have yet to win a game by three points or less this season (The other team is Cleveland, but, you know, they're doing ok. They've only lost one game by three or less actually).
- The Raptors are 8-15 in games decided by 10 points or less this season. Only the Washington Wizards have a worse winning percentage in the East.
- If games were only played to halftime, the Raptors would have a winning record and be in the playoffs. They're 21-20-2 in first halves this season.
- The Raptors are 2-21 when trailing after three quarters. Only New York & Washington have a worse record.
So, ya, late in games, Toronto is really, really, really.... bad. (Remember, I vowed not to swear using this forum)
What I've done today is look back at some key team metrics for each of the past three seasons. Obviously, the past two seasons have resulted in playoff appearances, and it doesn't seem as if this year will end with that result, so hopefully what we'll find is a few patterns that mirror that performance.
COMMON THREADS
First, let's present the commonalities between this season and the previous two (or, areas where patterns don't really exist):
- PACE OF PLAY - The Raps ranked 9th, 23rd, and 18th over the past three seasons
- eFG% - 10th, 8th, 12th
- OPPONENT eFG% - 21st, 21st, 22nd
(Quick note: effective field goal percentage takes into account the added value of a three-pointer)
This tells us that the Raptors are still hitting shots and allowing their opponents to hit shots are essentially the same rates as the last two seasons. So, to those of you who say it's defence that's the problem, you could be wrong.
THE PROBLEMS PRESENT THEMSELVES
Here are the things that really stuck out when looking at Toronto's numbers over the past three seasons (and thanks to basketball-reference for that):
- TURNOVER %: 3rd in 06-07, 1st in 07-08, 14th in 08-09
- OPP. TURNOVER %: 12th, 15th, 24th
- DEF. REB %: 8th, 4th, 20th
GET ON THE GLASS!
Let's start with the last one (which is probably the most surprising). Contrary to popular belief, the Raptors were a good defensive rebounding team over the past two seasons. The reason for their poor overall rebounding numbers was the fact that they had an organizational philosophy of never crashing the offensive glass (they were more concerned with transition defence). Actually, they've even gotten worse at offensive rebounding (25th last year, 29th this season).
Anyways, so while Toronto's overall rebounding numbers never looked impressive, and writers would constantly opine about this team's need for a stud rebounder, it wasn't really that much of an issue on the defensive end. And intuitively, you'd think the addition of Jermaine O'Neal
would only help in this regard.
It hasn't.
But, Toronto's poor rebounding hasn't been the fault of Jermaine O'Neal. He's been an improvement over Rasho Nesterovic. And it also hasn't been the fault of Chris Bosh, who's actually improved his rebounding rates this season as well.
So, who's at fault? Here's three reasons why the Raptors have become a below average defensive rebounding team:
- The 3rd big man: Kris Humphries was this team's best rebounder last season. This season, he's an after-thought. He's been replaced by Andrea Bargnani, who is one of the worst defensive rebounders in the NBA.
- The Jamario Effect: Jamario Moon was one of the league's best rebounders at small forward last season (21.6% DREB). That rate has dropped to 16.3% this season. Is he not working as hard? Sitting on the perimeter?
- The Delfino Effect: Carlos Delfino was one of the league's best rebounding wingmen as well last year (18.1%). His minutes have been replaced by one of the worst in Jason Kapono (8.1%) and Joey Graham (15%).
I've mentioned before that Chris Bosh and Jermaine O'Neal are only marginal rebounders compared to other bigs around the league. Add in Andrea Bargnani's awful nose for the ball and the only way you can have a decent rebounding team is to have a group of swingmen that can really get after it. Moon did last year, as did Delfino. Shawn Marion also could help greatly in this regard. But Jason Kapono, Anthony Parker, Joey Graham, and this year's version of Moon can't cut it.
NON-OPPORTUNISTIC
Now, let's look at why the Raptors have gone from a slightly above-average team to one of the worst in the league when it comes to forcing turnovers.
Three factors that revealed themselves in the previous discussion also apply here. First, Jamario Moon has become a much less active shot blocker this season compared to last. Secondly, Kris Humphries stole the ball at a much higher rate last season than Andrea Bargnani is this season. And finally, Carlos Delfino stole the ball at a much higher rate last season than the combo of Graham and Kapono this season.
Two other key positions have regressed from last season, the first being point guard: T.Jose Caldeford produced a steal on about 2.5% of possessions last season. Will Caldeukic is at about 1.5% this season. That doesn't seem like much except when you consider that's about one steal per game, or roughly 80 extra possessions in a season.
Finally, whether it's the Olympics, the added workload, the added pressure, the frustration, whatever... but Chris Bosh has become a much less active defender this season. His steal rate and block rate have both dropped considerably year-over-year.
I MISS T.JOSE CALDEFORD
I've saved the most drastic rankings slide for last. How did a team go from the league's best at taking care of the ball last season to just league average in 08-09?
I'd love to tell you that it's not just the point guards. That other players have shown drastic regressions in how they've handled the rock.... but I can't. It's the point guard play. There's no other way to put it. Not only have Will Solomon and Roko Ukic been a disaster, but the injuries to Jose Calderon have made them more of a disaster than originally expected!
Now, I know I've fed you a lot of numbers today, but stick with me for one last section, and I promise you'll be happy. I've gone through the past three seasons to come up with a Raptors PG PER, which is essentially a weighted average (based on minutes played) of how Toronto's point guards have performed over the past three seasons. Over the two previous years, it was T.Jose Caldeford (with a dash of Darrick Martin sprinkled in), while this year it's been Will Caldeukic (for simplicity sake, I won't account for Anthony Parker's play at point guard over the last two games).
RAPTORS PG PER
08-09: 14.8
07-08: 20.4
06-07: 18.2
Remember, 15 is considered average! So even with one of the league's best in Jose Calderon, Toronto has received below-average point guard play this season.
To put it in perspective, I've looked at this year's PG PER rankings to come up with an NBA player whose rating comes closest to these numbers:
08-09: Kyle Lowry
07-08: Chauncey Billups
06-07: Andre Miller
So two years ago, we were getting a solid, if not spectacular (Andre Miller) level of play from our point guards. Last year, we were getting an MVP type of combined performance from Caldeford. This year, we're getting a journeyman performance.
THE SILVER BULLET
In economics, we learned that education was the silver bullet of development. Educate your country and it effects everything... health, wealth, human rights, etc...
Well, I believe I found the silver bullet to this Raptors team. As much as we want to slag Jamario Moon for taking an ill-advised three, or Chris Bosh for failing in the clutch, the fact is point guard play will be the reason this team goes from the playoffs to the lottery. Can you argue that shoddy point guard play hasn't at least contributed to:
- 4th quarter struggles
- Turnovers
- Calderon's injuries
- Bosh's struggles
So I believe we've found the silver bullet, the only problem is (warning: cheesy line coming up)... I think it's already been shot.
14 comments:
Excellent article.
What I thought was the most telling: they're 21-20-2 in first halves, and yet 16-27 overall. I think that sums up how I've felt about the team this season - good enough to compete, but lacking the players (or confidence? or health?) to get it done in crunch time.
i completely agree. That was a great article. Simply amazing.
I was wondering if you think there is a possibility, without spending too much money, to have this lineup and subs after 2010:
Calderon/Nash
Parker/Delfino
Marion/Jamario
Bosh/Hump
Bargnani/Voskhul
Furthermore, do you think that this lineup is a recipe for success? I am thinking that Nash will agree to limited minutes because of age...maybe split the game 50/50. Maybe it is just a wonderful pipedream, but I think it could happen...if Marion takes a paycut of course.
Chris,
re: PG play
And, the fact is Jose Calderon, when not injured, is still by and large the same player he was last season.
What's been missing at this key position is a decent BACK-UP for Jose ... which they had the past two seasons.
Secondly.
re: The rebounding issue
Here's a simple fact for you to consider.
The available rebounds in a game remain basically the same regardless which players are on the floor.
Last season Moon gobbled up lots of boards BECAUSE he was played as the 2nd Big beside Chris Bosh. However, when you shift Moon out of that spot and replace him there with Jermaine O'Neal, of course JO is going to pick up a solid number of boards BUT SO TOO are Moon's rebounding numbers going to drop for at least 2 valid reasons:
i. Bosh gets the same number of boards; O'Neal now gets his share too; therefore, there are fewer to go around for a 3rd player in the Raptors 5-Man Unit; and, here's the kicker ...
ii. Especially if/when the team decides to go with a twin towers approach and emphasizes its INSIDE game, which reduces its number of possessions per game overall.
It's completely wrong for Raptors followers to expect that Moon would be able to put up similar numbers to last season when he is no longer playing the #4 spot beside Bosh for much of the game, replaced by Jermaine O'Neal [or Andrea Bargnani, who has seen his rebounding numbers increase recently since he's taken JO's spot in the rotation].
I think there are 2 significant spots that require upgrading: Starting Swing, & substitute PG. If we get an above-average swing, so much will fall into place afterwards! And the substitute PG is a race. Can we get someone good enough before RU is ready to assume the mantle? Close call. We're losing close games. We need a difference maker at swing more than anything. If we can afford to rent a #2 PG, that, too, would be welcome news.
Khandor,
Some quick numbers from 82games.com:
About 20% of Jamario's PT last season came as a power forward, and you're right, that number has dipped to about 2% this season.
HOWEVER, Moon only grabbed 11.8 rebs per 48 mins as PF last year, compared to 10.3 per 48 as a SF. If you do a weighted average of those numbers, it comes out to 10.6 per 48.
This season, he's grabbing just 8.7 rebs per 48 as a SF this year, and his weighted average is pretty much right at 8.7 as well (because he's played there so much.
My point is this, even if Moon was still playing 20% of his court time at the 4, he'd have to be averaging 18 rebs per 48 at that spot just to equal his weighted average from last season.
So, granted, he's not playing at the 4 as much as possible, but it's his lack of rebounding at the Small Forward position that's primarily the cause for his lacklustre numbers.
Chris,
How Moon is rebounding at the #3 this season is still only part of the equation.
The other parts include, at least ...
i. Who was playing #2 and #3 last season when Moon was playing #4?
ii. What were those players rebounding numbers like in comparison with the boards O'Neal & Bargnani are putting up this season, taking into consideration the difference in the number of possessions per game between the two seasons and the focus this season on the Twin Towers approach to half-court offense.
Conversely ... if Moon would be allowed to play the #2 this season with Calderon/Parker, Graham, Humphries/Bargnani & Bosh, IMO, you would soon see that this team's Rebounding Numbers on the whole would in fact be improved over last season's.
In general terms, it matters what position you play, who you're playing with, and what the offensive/defensive/rebounding emphasis is going to be with a specific 5-Man Unit on the floor.
Although there are only a certain number of boards available per game, good players get rebounds, regardless of who they are playing with. Take Chris Bosh: last year, playing with Moon and Bargnani/Rasho averaged 8.7.
This year, despite playing with a better rebounder (JO) and an improved rebounder (Bargnani), he is averaging more rebounds: 10/game.
All things considered I wouldn't put too much stock in who players are playing with. The tempo of the game though - that probably has a much bigger impact on rebounding.
What matters is, "Was the player part of a 5-man unit that won the mini-battle against their 5-man unit?"! CB is on all 6 winning 5-man units. JC, AP, JM, JK, JG, & AB are on 3/6. WS & JO are on 2/6. WS, JO, & one of the swings would be my subs ... unless BC makes a trade ...
By the way, since I prefer an 8-man rotation, 1 of the swings would be on the bench ...
Great post, bro.
What would I want from our swings? Free Throws Made, Field Goals Made & Three Pointers Made Per Minute. Kapono & Graham would start, with Parker as the sub, and Moon on the bench. Use the defensive players when you have to, not as a rule.
Dan,
This year, despite playing with a better rebounder (JO) and an improved rebounder (Bargnani), he is averaging more rebounds: 10/game.
There are different logical assumptions you're making that don't necessarily make sense within the context of a NBA game ... e.g.
re: the increased rebounding numbers for Chris Bosh
* O'Neal is not necessarily a "better" rebounder. Afterall, to whom are you comparing him? [as "better" is a relative term]
* Because Bargnani is an "improved" rebounder this season ... What logical consequence dictates that this fact SHOULD somehow preclude another player like Bosh, for example, from increasing his rebounding total?
IN FACT ... THESE ARE REASON WHY JAMARIO MOON'S REBOUNDING NUMBERS SHOULD BE DOWN THIS SEASON.
It is a fallacious argument to suggest/expect a NBA team to be able to change/alter the focus of its team from a perimeter game to an INTERIOR/Twin Towers game and yet still have the same level of productivity from its Wing Players.
--------------------------
So, too, is it a fallacy to suggest that "good players" get rebounds.
Reggie Miller was a "very good" NBA player who did not get rebounds. Stacey Augmon was a "good" NBA player who was a decent rebounder and very much like Jamario Moon.
The FACT IS ... Jamario Moon is much closer to being either Stacey Augmon or even Reggie Miller than he is to being Micheal Jordan [an all-around player who could board no matter what].
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