He's only played about 100 minutes (about two full games). He was an NBDL player at one point this season.
And yet, he might be the one bright spot from this season for the Toronto Raptors.
Pops Mensah-Bonsu... my man.
Check out Toronto's 82games.com page. Granted, being on the court for just 3% of a team's season is a small sample size, but his performance is still quite striking.
The best way I can describe PMB is to say he's everything I've ever wanted from Kris Humphries, on speed. His motor never stops, he's slightly more athletic than Hump, and he does everything I want from Hump but to a much greater degree.
For example, I always said Hump should never even consider taking jump shots. He should just grab boards and stay in the paint. Well, he did that... to a degree. 44% of his shots were from "in close," which is pretty good. Well, 82% of PMB's shots are inside shots.
Hump was Toronto's best rebounder (which isn't saying much), grabbing 10% of the available offensive rebounds and 16% of the total rebounds available when he was on the floor. PMB has blown those numbers out of the water (18% and 24%).
However, PMB's greatest impact has shown up on the defensive side of the ball. While Hump improved Toronto's defence by about 3 points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor, PMB's presence on the floor has improved Toronto's defence by about 26 points per 100 possessions. Teams are shooting just 39% from the field when PMB is on the floor, and Toronto's defensive rebounding improves from 70 to 80 per cent.
What all this leads to is the fact that when PMB has been on the floor, the Raptors have outscored their opposition by 34 points (or roughly 17 points per game). Granted, some of that time has been "garbage time" but I think his performance has spoken for itself.
But here's the question? What does this really mean for next year? Front court play hasn't really been a problem for this team. I think most people would say this solidifies the big man rotation. Bosh and Bargnani with PMB as the third big, and Hump as the reserve.
But, to those people, I present the following list:
(* denotes current playoff team)
* 1. CLE 15.5
* 2. LAL 10.9
* 3. BOS 10.3
* 4. MIA 8.6
* 5. POR 7.5
* 6. DET 4.5
* 7. CHI 3.8
* 8. PHI 3.2
* 9. ATL 2.9
* 10. UTA 1.8
11. MIL 1.1
* 12. DEN 0.5
* 13. HOU -0.1
14. OKC -1.2
* 15. ORL -1.6
* 16. DAL -1.9
17. PHX -1.9
18. IND -2.3
19. SAC -2.3
* 20. SAS -2.4
21. GS -2.4
22. NJ -3.0
23. CHA -3.8
24. MEM -4.0
* 25. NOK -4.3
26. WSH -4.7
27. MIN -6.0
28. TOR -7.8
29. LAC -8.6
30. NYK -10.5
Before I explain what list is (and how strongly it correlates with team performance), I also want to relay something I heard on the radio from the great Dr. Jack Ramsay (a longtime NBA analyst). He said that in the new NBA, generally speaking, the most successful teams are the ones who can put the ball in their best player's hands to let them create their own offence. Essentially, he was saying given the new climate (read: rules) in the NBA, dominant perimeter players are now in vogue.
Now I can tell you the list above is Swingman PER +/- (essentially a team's combined PER at the shooting guard and small forward positions). What sticks out to me (other than all the playoff teams at the top of the list): The only teams in the playoffs in the bottom third of the list are the Spurs and Hornets. To take that fact one step further, I present the following rule:
If you want to make the playoffs with below average swingmen, you need either:
A) The greatest Power Forward to ever play the game (Tim Duncan)
or
B) The best point guard in the game today, and maybe ever (Chris Paul)
Well, let me tell you, Chris Bosh is no Tim Duncan, and Jose Calderon is no Chris Paul.
Which brings me back to my original question: What does PMB's performance really tell us about what the Raptors should do in the off-season? If anything, I think it should embolden the Raptors even more to look for a trade (either Bargnani or Bosh) that significantly improves their production at the 2 and 3 spots.
15 or 20 years ago, this Raptors team as currently constructed could probably win a playoff round or two, but as Dr. Jack said and as the numbers show, this is a new NBA, and the Raptors have to catch up.
30 comments:
Chris,
I simply cannot emphasize enough "the utter wrongness" of what you just wrote about Tim Duncan.
Tim Duncan is one of the all-time great Centers in NBA history.
He is not a Power Forward; and, it simply does not matter what the "initial" says beside his name in the NBA Box Scores.
When the Spurs play the Suns:
Q1. Who does Duncan check?
A1. He checks Shaq.
Q2. Who does Shaq check?
A2. He checks Duncan.
Shaq is a Center; this fact is unquestionable.
Duncan, too, is a Center; this fact should also be unquestionable.
The reason you and other NBA observers continually make this specific mistake in reference to Tim Duncan's position is rather remarkable to me, since it then leads to all sorts of mistaken perceptions and proclamations about, "What it takes to succeed in the NBA with specific types of individual players at certain positions or not."
Once you [and others] first assign players to their correct positions, in the NBA, then you can plausibly consider what's actually required to win a League Championship with those players on a specific team's roster.
hey khandor. you are a douche.
Khandor is serious about success.
Chris, you need to post more, dude.
Keep Bargs. Trade Bosh.
And Pops is the muthafuckin man.
Khandor,
Not sure why "utter wrongness" was in quotations in your post, but I digress.
I understand Duncan doesn't "play" power forward, but he insists on being "labelled" as such.
Nevertheless, that piece of inane trivia doesn't change the "point" I made, which is that post play and point guard play is not as important as wing play in today's game.
Do you "get" what I'm trying to say?
Clown,
If you actually read the post you would have realized that it makes no difference to the argument whether Tim Duncan is a PF or a PG.
What is important to the argument is that his and CPaul's greatness at their positions (whatever they may be) provides an explanation for their teams success despite their respective teams low Swingmen PER.
"i" "agree" "with" "anonymous"...and eyebleaf's pt about posting more...
another solid article, but way too long in the making...act like you've been here before...
Can't we just call Duncan a post player and quit caring about whether he is a pf or center by label. Haha no wonder khan gets on everybodies nerves with posts like that.
I guess we will have to see what the raptors land at the draft before making any big plans, but I am very interested to see if BC actaully does anything to address the obvious weakness of this team. He has shown throughout his managerial career that he has the cajones to make a big deal if it needs to be made, so I guess its just whether or not he recognizes the weakness that everybody else seems to have recognized.
With so many teams looking to cut costs in a time of financial instability the raptors might be best off just letting their FA's walk and using that space to pick up a scoring swing for free (although I'm still dreaming of moving up in the lottery to get James Harden, which would allow us to bring back Marion and AP if that is what BC wants).
Sooo...teams with horrible players at two of 5 positions don't win? Is that supposed to be a shock?
What would a list look like for PF-C?
PG-SG?
I bet the Raptors are near the bottom of both. Happens when you have no bench and are giving 30 minutes a night to the Euro-Curry.
Centre or Power Forward, it's all semantics. 2 big, 2 wings and a pg.
I think you gotta trade calderon or bargs for a wing. If BC comes back with ap/graham/marion/delfino wing rotation, we cap out at 45 wins or so.
GETTA WING
Chris,
No, I don't "get" what you're trying to say ... principally because I don't think you actually mean what you're trying to say here.
If Wing Play was indeed "more important" than either "PG play" or "Post play" [if that's what you want to call it, this time, instead], in today's NBA, then the simple fact is that the San Antonio Spurs would not have 4 NBA Titles to their credit in the last 10 years.
What position Tim Duncan actually plays for the San Antonio Spurs has considerable meaning and is not a piece of inane trivia ... at least, not to those who understand how the NBA game actually works.
e.g. NBA teams and their head coaches do not classify their players as simply being, "2 Bigs, 2 Wings and 1 PG", nor should those who truly wish to understand just how important specific 1-v-1 match-ups are within the context of any single contest.
If you truly knew how NBA coaches think then you would never make a comment like that in the first place.
Right now, the Pistons are playing the Rockets.
The Pistons' 2 Bigs are McDyess and Maxiell; while the Rockets' 2 Bigs are Scola and Hayes. The score is 70-69 with 8+ minutes left in the 4th quarter.
Now, when Yao Ming checks in ... do you think that Michael Curry is going to stay with the combination of Maxiell and McDyess as his "2 Bigs" or do you think he is going to counter with Kwame Brown, at the Center position for the Pistons?
1. Those who think that positions don't matter in the NBA game do not understand it at the level they might think they do.
2. The quality of play a team gets at a specific position is not correlated positively to its level of success when success itself is measured/determined by winning the NBA Championship or not, and that's a fact you can take to the bank. :-)
And conversely, if the Pistons come early with Kwame, as they're doing right now ... and the Rockets do not respond by coming back with Yao Ming or Mutombo ... then, just sit back and watch what happens over the next few minutes in this specific game.
Positions matter in the NBA game and others simply shouldn't believe what someone else says who tries to tell them otherwise.
... and, just to proove MY POINT ... back comes Rick Adelman with Yao Ming, following his team's time-out. :-)
Khandor,
I appreciate the point you're trying to make, but you're still forgetting or neglecting the original point of my post, which was that wing play is taking over today's NBA.
Picking one counter-example (one of the best players EVER in Tim Duncan) doesn't discredit the point I made.
That's like refuting an argument about power pitching taking over Major League Baseball by pointing out that Greg Maddux was successful and he didn't throw hard.
The simple facts are that 14 of the top 16 teams in wing play are playoff teams. The two playoff teams with below-average wing play have either one of the best post players ever, or one of the best point guards ever.
My point? If you want to be successful in today's NBA, the numbers seem to show you have to do it with good swingmen.
are you guys going to hug it out?
Chris,
Here's a simple aspect of what it is that I am trying to get across to you:
1. The Utah Jazz ... for example ... are a team on your list above [I think], with solid PER numbers at their wing positions but the player who makes their team GO isn't one, or two, or three, etc., of their wings ... in fact, it's their PG, Deron Williams.
IMO, the Jazz's "okay" wings might not cut the mustard at all, as a solid team that has a legit chance to win the title this season ... unless they have D-Will running their squad.
Which then gives at least 2 examples of top teams in this year's NBA that don't fit your specific hypothesis, from a causation standpoint, re: the actual importance of a team's PER at the Wing positions, as a fundamental piece for major success in this league.
And, if I was to take the time to go down the entire list I am willing to bet that the two of us working together in such an effort could in fact invalidate everything you tried to say in your original claim.
e.g.
Dirk Nowitzki isn't a Wing player and he is the engine for the Mavs.
Dwight Howard isn't a Wing player and he is the engine for the Magic.
Derrick Rose isn't a Wing player and he is the engine for the resurgent Bulls.
Rodney Stuckey isn't a Wing player and he is the engine for the Pistons.
Chauncey Billups isn't a Wing player and he is the engine for the Nuggets.
Yao Ming isn't a Wing player and he is the engine for the Rockets.
etc., etc., etc.
If your team has a player like Duncan ... then it can take out another squad that happens to Kobe or Lebron or D-Wade on it ... and, your team has one of those three on it then it too might have the goods to take out a squad that has men like KG, and Da Truth and Jesus Shuttlesworth on it, depending on the quality of their coaching and their principal rotation overall, etc.
There is isn't one specific type of player that is more important than another in the NBA ... as long as the team in question has what it takes to amass a positive Rebounding Differential, can get key stops when it needs to, and can score the ball effectively with a balanced Team Offense.
Great teams in the NBA come in many different shapes and sizes depending on what their actual personnel is and how it is their GM and Head Coach choose to put together their top flight organization.
"a bumble trip zip"
this analysis is phenominal. and labelling tim duncan a power forward is anything but "utter wrongness", David robinson made the switch from PF to C because he saw the potential in Tim Duncan, and Bonner/Oberto/Elson/Nesterovic have been the starting Centers the last 4 to 5 years. It doesn't matter if Shaq matches up with Tim Duncan on defense, teams put their best post defender on the opposing team's best post player. There isn't really a difference between the PF and C spots anyways. Is bargnani really a Center? no. So khandor.....keep your comments to yourself unless you know what you're talking about. He's even listed as a PF, he says he's a PF, but if khandor says he's a center he must be a center and everything PF about him is "utterly wrong".........douchebag
So to conclude some bigs are better equipped to guard other bigs (no shit!) and good teams usually have good players at every position or several great players.
The raptors are below average at both of the wing positions right now, and particularly they lack guards who can create their own shot or a shot for their teammates. Every good team in the nba has at least one player who can create his own shot or an open look for his teammates. The raptors seem to have none of these players with Calderon being a cripple right now.
For the benefit of those who don't know much about the history of this league ...
The exact "switch" which David Robinson made in the best interests of the Spurs, once Mr. Duncan arrived in town, was to go from Center to Power Forward, for San Antonio ... not the other way around.
LOL, at anonymous.
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Chris,
Unlike some who may read your fine blog and, then, unfortunately, leave a comment while working from a position of ignorance ... it is good to see you actually thinking about what I wrote and not simply over-reacting in a knee-jerk sort of way.
Kudos to you!
[whether or not I agree with your position]
khandor you are pretty persistant in your ignorance, I'll give you that much.
But now you are not only saying Tim Duncan is not a Power Forward but David Robinson is not a Center? You just created a whole new debate my friend.
Direct quote from David Robinson's nba.com player bio.
"One of the top centers of his era, David “The Admiral” Robinson was a marvel of a basketball player and a respected figure off the court." ( http://www.nba.com/history/players/robinson_bio.html )
I'd hate to reference wikipedia since anyone can contribute to an article, but nowhere on David Robinson's entire profile does it say anything about him playing power forward....ever
And yes although Tim Duncan does play center from time to time depending on matchups and who he's on the floor with, saying he's not a power forward is pretty silly.
But now to say David Robinson is not a Center but a Power forward?...absolutely ridiculous
a few more quotes just for giggles:
from http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/505699/David-Robinson "...bringing San Antonio its first NBA title and silencing the critics who complained that the 2.16-m (7-ft 1-in), 113.4-kg (250-lb) centre played more like a small forward."
"Accompanied by teammates who played a more physical game—most notably second-year standout power forward Tim Duncan—Robinson was able to fully utilize his talent and win a championship."
LOLing at anonymous seems a little inappropriate since "initials" beside players names in the NBA Box Scores indicates their positions, regardless of whether or not you agree with them.
I think even if Tim Duncan told you personally he was a Power Forward you wouldn't agree with him. You seem to be pretty set in your way of thinking.
As for the article, agree 100% extremely well done. Jack Armstrong has said repeatedly it is much easier for a swingman at the 2 or 3 to takeover a game than a post player because of the way today's game is being called. You should write more.
What I said was ... that shifted David Robinson shifted from Center to Power Forward in order to accommodate for Tim Duncan on the Spurs ... which is not to say that The Admiral was NOT a Center for the btter part of his NBA career, and a very good one at that.
Certain individuals might do well to improve their reading comprehension skills before criticizing the work and opinions of others. :-)
Those who say that it is easier for a 2/3/wing player to assert control over an NBA game than it is for a Big Man are correct in making this claim. Period.
As I before, Chris ... kudos to you for taking a more mature approach to what I said originally.
but david robinson didn't shift from center to power forward. that's what you said and you were wrong. My reading comprehension skills are fine thanks. Unless of course i'm somehow mistaken when you said
"The exact "switch" which David Robinson made in the best interests of the Spurs, once Mr. Duncan arrived in town, was to go from Center to Power Forward, for San Antonio ... not the other way around."
Clearly you didn't say David Robinson shifted from center to power forward...
While Duncan may have been named PF and Robinson C, Robinson actually moved from the low post (typical centre position) to the high post (typical PF position) to accomodate Duncan. So yes Robinson did move to accomodate Duncan...
sledgehammer,
Fortunately, YOU know exactly where it's at; in sharp contrast with Frank, who is, unfortunately, Lost in Space. :-)
clearly, I don't know what I was thinking calling one of the greatest centres of all time a centre...god forbid
David Robinson was a terrific Center for the Spurs ... who eventually shifted to the Power Forward position, in order to accommodate an even better Center, in San Antonio, in the form of young Tim Duncan. :-)
you're right, everyone else is wrong. excellent job khandor, too bad nobody reads your blogs....wonder why
Not everybody else is wrong, Frank ... just you, in this instance.
As I said before, thanks, sledgehammer. :-)
you obviously want to get the last word in and have made it clear there's no use in arguing with fools. now i know not to waste valuable time reading any comments headed by
khandor said...
feel free to post accordingly.
It's a shame then you won't read these next comments.
Did you hear what Jeff Van Gundy just said during tonight's Bos/ORL match-up, re: what position Tim Duncan actually plays, in the NBA, according to a real live former NBA head coach and TV Analyst?
HAHAHAHAHAHA :-)
LOL, LOL, LOL
"Tim Duncan hasn't played a minute this season at the Power Forward position. Tim Duncan is a Center, in the NBA." - JVG
ROTFLOLWKAS :-)
--------------------------------
Once again, my commendations to Chris Black for not continuing on the track he initially started with during this thread, and to "sleadgehammer" [the voice of reason]!
Frank, you know exactly where you can reach me directly. :-)
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