Challenging Conventional Wisdom...

This is one of the main reasons for looking at numbers when it comes to sports.

From reading articles, listening to the Leo Rautinses and Mark Jacksons of the world, and just from your own observations, you develop an impression on players. So-and-so is a good passer, so-and-so can't defend, etc... However, the premise of Bill James' work in baseball (perfectly illustrated in Moneyball) was that it's very easy for those observations to be wrong or off. The example commonly used is that the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter in baseball is roughly one hit per week of the season.

Could a scout really tell the difference between those two hitters just by visual analysis?

Anyways after that (very poor) explanation of the use of statistics, let me explain what I'm doing today: I'm just taking a quick look at some numbers at 82games, and seeing what numbers "don't make sense." Or in other words, what numbers challenge our conventional wisdom when it comes to how we look at certain NBA players. Let's begin.

SHOOTERS THAT DON'T HELP YOUR SHOOTING

Just the mere presence of Ray Allen on the floor improves Boston's effective field goal percentage by 9.6% (the best mark in the league). That makes sense. On the other end of the spectrum, when Anderson Varajeo is on the floor, Cleveland's effective field goal percentage drops by 3.1% (also makes sense).

But what's going on here?..

D. Gibson -1.6%
R. Fernandez -2.0%
C. Bell -3.1%
E. House -5.6%
L. Barbosa -5.7%

Raptors conundrum: Jason Kapono (-1.0%)

REBOUNDERS THAT DON'T HELP YOUR REBOUNDING

Paul Millsap improves Utah's rebounding by 5.9%, Allen Iverson hurts Detroit's rebounding by 4.7% (these make sense, in case you were wondering).

What's going on here?

J. Przybilla -1.5%
A. Jefferson -2.1%
T. Duncan -3.0%
R. Turiaf -3.2%
R. Wallace -3.8%

Raptors conundrum: Jamario Moon (-2.0%)

DEFENDERS THAT DON'T HELP YOUR DEFENCE

Jamal Crawford adds 13.2 points per 48 minutes to your points allowed, Andrei Kirilenko takes away 8.6 (these make sense).

What's going on here?

A. Horford +4.5
C. Billups +6.7
M. Barnes +7.3
T. Duncan +7.3
R. Brewer +8.2

Raptors conundrum: Andrea Bargnani (+5.9)

THOUGHTS

Tim Duncan's numbers in regards to defence and rebounding are very surprising. Granted, San Antonio's third & fourth big men (Fabricio Oberto and Kurt Thomas) are good defenders and rebounders, but still, based on Duncan's reputation and his raw rebounding and block totals, you wouldn't expect to see those numbers.

This is a guy who's made either the first or second All-NBA defensive team in each of his 11 seasons! And yet, this year, his team is better defensively and on the glass when he's on the bench! Do you think voters will recognize those numbers this year? My guess is no.

Anyways, there are 15 names up there (18 if you consider the Raptors) who don't seem to be conforming to the public's perception of their value to a team. Are there explanations? Mitigating factors?

The obvious mitigating factor is that you need to take into account who is replacing these players on the floor when they're on the bench. For example, Eddie House is likely hurt that at least some of his minutes come at the expense of the league's best shooter (Allen). A similar argument can be made for Ronnie Brewer (vs. Kirilenko). However, if these guys were as good as they're advertised in shooting and defence, you wouldn't expect the numbers to be this... drastic.

Mitigating factors aside, I still think these are all pretty eye-opening numbers. Billups is a former all-NBA defensive player; Jefferson and Duncan are top 20 rebounders; Fernandez, Gibson, House, and Barbosa are all known as sharp shooters... but as I said before, what people are "known as" isn't necessarily what they are.

Caldeford vs Hollinger

Quick note: I am extremely thankful for Mr. Grange's links to Caldeford on his blog... but we need to remove that superfluous "r" that he adds to Caldeford ("CaldeRford"). It's always there!

I forgot how I wanted to finish my post yesterday (this happens more often than you think... I start out with a plan, and it just kind of unravels from there... this happens more often IN MY LIFE than you think too).

Anyways, I wanted to compare my conclusions with those of Mr. Hollinger's Playoff Odds.

So, as a reminder, here was my prediction:

8. Toronto

9. Charlotte

10. Indiana

11. Milwaukee

12. New Jersey

13. New York

14. Chicago

And here are Mr. Hollinger's:

8. Toronto

9. Milwaukee

10. Charlotte

11. Indiana

12. New York

13. Chicago

14. New Jersey

ANALYSIS

First off, we both like Toronto, which gives a bit of credence to my argument (and gets me off the hook for any potential bias).

The biggest difference is where we have Milwaukee pegged, and as Mr. Hollinger admits, his system does not take into account that Michael Redd will not be playing for the rest of the season.

As for the other big difference (New Jersey), I tend to probably agree with where Mr. Hollinger has them slotted (especially given their remaining schedule), however, my system had them ranked higher because of their high-end talent (Carter & Harris).

7 teams, 1 playoff spot...

Have you looked at the Eastern Conference standings of late? As a fan of a particular team, sometimes it's easy to get caught up in just looking at how many games that team is out of the playoffs, neglecting to look at the teams around them.

First, grant me the following: The Sixers are 22-22, Elton Brand is returning to the lineup, and with a 2.5 game headstart on the 8th seed, Philly is safe to make the playoffs.

That leaves the following scenario: Seven teams--Milwaukee, New York, New Jersey, Charlotte, Chicago, Toronto, & Indiana--separated by just 2.5 games, vying for the final playoff spot in the East.

Now, on the surface, as a Raptors enthusiast, it's easy to say, "Well, Toronto is easily the best team out of those seven, they will go on a run and will take over the 8th seed, maybe even the 7th."

But does reality agree with that assessment? What do the numbers say? What do the schedules indicate? How healthy are all these teams? Let's go...

What I've done is rank these seven teams in a variety of ways, and the team was given a score corresponding to that ranking (i.e. if you ranked 1st in offensive efficiency, you received a score of 1 for that category). I then added up all of the scores in all of the categories to come up with a composite ranking that should tell us who has the best chance of winding up in the playoffs.

CURRENT RECORD

Whether you want to admit it or not, and no matter how small 2.5 games may seem, it's still a contributing factor to this analysis. Therefore, the Raptors are starting in a bit of a hole in this one, with a score of 6.

SCHEDULE TO DATE

Whose record masks a really easy schedule so far? Who has had to endure a bunch of games against the Bostons and Los Angeleses of the world? Teams spanned the entire spectrum here, Indiana has had the toughest schedule in the NBA so far, while New Jersey has had the easiest. Toronto has had the 6th toughest schedule so far, giving them a score of 3 for this category.

OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY

Not very many outstanding offences in this group. Toronto ranks as the best, but they only rank 14th in the league... Still good for a score of 1.

DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY

I'm starting to realize that these teams aren't very good. Seven teams, and only one ranks in the Top 10 in either offensive or defensive efficiency. That team is the Bobcats, who rank 9th in the NBA (Larry Brown can coach defence, you have to give him that). Toronto ranks 22nd in the NBA, good for a score of 5.

(Quick aside: You know how much of a proponent I am of the past two categories we've looked at, and for informational purposes, here are the top four teams when you combine offensive & defensive efficiency: TOR, MIL, CHA, IND)

TOP PLAYER FACTOR

The NBA is a game of stars, not necessarily of depth. This is a bit of a subjective measure, but what I did was look at the Top 50 players in Player Efficiency Rating, and find out which teams had the most, and highest-ranked. New Jersey (Harris & Carter) came out on top, with Toronto (Bosh & Calderon) coming in second. Note: Milwaukee was only credited with one player in the Top 50 (Villanueva) because even though Redd was in the Top 50, you couldn't really make a case for him to be included when he's out for the season.

INJURIES

Another slightly subjective measure, but something that has to be taken into effect somehow (that's one of the problems of Hollinger's Playoff Odds, it doesn't take into account players who won't be playing in future games). Milwaukee was given the worst ranking given Redd's injury, and three other rotation guys who have been knicked up (Ridnour, Bogut, Bell). Charlotte came up next to last because of Gerald Wallace's uncertain status, while Indiana is a big question mark because Danny Granger has been feeling pain in that questionable knee of his lately (plus Roy Hibbert has been out).

Even though they're fully healthy now, I gave Toronto a score of 3 in this category because I've also tried to take into account the injury history of players on each team (Do you really think Toronto will go the rest of the season without Bosh, Calderon, or O'Neal/Marion missing any time?)

REMAINING SCHEDULE

We've looked at the schedule to date, now we're going to have two rankings that look at the remaining schedules. The first is games against teams with winning records. New Jersey is the only team that has more games remaining against winning teams than losing teams. The three teams with the best ratios of games against winning teams vs losing teams are Toronto (14/21), Indiana (15/21), and Charlotte (16/20). That is a very favourable deal for Toronto, as three out of every five games for the rest of the season will come against losing teams.

HOME / ROAD SPLIT

This is when Toronto's advantage really starts to show itself. Not only do they have a ton of games left against bad teams, but they also have the second best remaining schedule in terms of home/road split (20/15).

Milwaukee ranks first in this category, while New Jersey and New York have really taken a beating in these last two categories (it's like the NBA was really trying to give those two New York area teams a really good shot at having a decent record to start the season).

CONCLUSION

So there you have it, eight categories... taking into account past performance, current roster makeup, and future hurdles. How does it shake out?

CALDEFORD RANKINGS

8.   Toronto

9.   Charlotte

10. Indiana

11.  Milwaukee

12. New Jersey

13. New York

14. Chicago

Does it pass the laugh test? I think so. I'd feel a lot more comfortable about Charlotte being where they are if I knew how long Gerald Wallace would be out. And I wish there was any kind of way you could account for potential roster improvement between now and the end of the season (i.e. Marion coming to the Raptors, Rose's continued emergence in Chicago, etc...), but other than that, I think the rankings make sense.

Toronto has had a double whammy in terms of scheduling so far this season. Not only have they played a bunch of good teams, but they've played those good teams on the road. So that bodes well for them for the rest of the season, as does their relative health, and even though relatively speaking they're not all that good this season, the fact is they're the most balanced and talented team left out of these seven teams (as evidenced by the Offensive and Defensive metrics).

How excited can you get?

Two wins against teams that were a combined 35 games below .500... you excited yet? Two teams both in the lower half of defensive efficiency (with one being dead last)... you excited yet?

Well frankly, I am, a little bit.. and here's three reasons why:

THE DUO

Only 5 Power Forwards in the NBA are averaging over 20 points per game in January. Only 4 Centres in the NBA are averaging over 20 points per game in January.

The Raptors have one of each.

Not surprisingly, given those facts, Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani have been the highest-scoring frontcourt in the NBA in this month (for informational purposes, Amare/Shaq are 2nd, Dwight Howard/Rashard Lewis are 3rd).

Here's another less talked about reason for optimism about these two: Both are averaging season-highs in assists this month as well, which could indicate they're starting to gain a certain amount of comfort playing together around the paint.

THE MVP

Chris Bosh is the superstar, I'm fine with that. But if there was any question as to which player was most valuable to this team (Bosh included), it was answered over the past two games. Consider the difference in performance over their two-game win streak compared to their seven-game losing streak:

• +17.5 in Points per game
• +10% in FG%
• +4.3 Assists per game

Obviously, what changed between those two time periods was the return of Jose Calderon. Have you seen his crazy averages over the past two games? 19.5 pts, 9 ast, 79.4 FG%, and ZERO turnovers.

(Alert: This is your stat of the day) Calderon's amazing efficiency this season (quick aside: He's now just 11 free throws away from tying the NBA record for consecutive successful free throws) has led to this: According to basketball-reference.com, Calderon has best offensive rating in the NBA this season. This is mostly a measure of efficiency, and when you consider his shooting percentages, his assist totals, and his low turnover rate, it all makes sense. For reference sake, here's the rest of the top 10:

1. Calderon

2. Chris Paul

3. Carl Landry

4. Ray Allen

5. Pau Gasol

6. Brandon Roy

7. Chauncey Billups

8. Jameer Nelson

9. Nene

10. Lebron James

THE ROTATION

The most interesting aspect of Calderon's return has been Jay Triano's new 8-man rotation. Make no mistake about it, this isn't something that has been advocated by this franchise for years. Smitch was a big proponent of a 9 or 10 man rotation... but the problem this year has been that they don't have a roster to merit such a deep rotation.

With the return of Calderon, they've essentially removed the two players from the rotation that were not legitimate NBA players at this time (Ukic & Solomon). It's a real simple premise: Play your best 8 guys, and make the minutes and positions fit to your talent.

Here's another coincidence (or maybe it isn't, maybe we found the stat that Triano/Colangelo really like to track): Toronto's new 8-man rotation are their top 8 players in True Shooting percentage (a number that takes into account three pointers and free throws).

THE WEEK OF HELL

All this optimism for a two-game winning streak, and yet, it could be all gone by next Sunday. Beginning this Sunday, the Raptors play 5 games in 7 days... here they are:

SUN  vs Orl

TUE  at Cle

WED vs Lal

FRI   at Nok 

SAT  at Mem

The only thing that tells me is that Toronto MUST win tonight against New Jersey and Friday against Milwaukee.

TGIF...

(Quick stat: Did you know Toronto's offence is 6 points worse per 48 minutes when Jermaine O'Neal is on the floor? Only 8 players in the NBA have a more negative effect on their teams)

Thank goodness it's Friday.... for all of you out there who work regular jobs with regular hours and regular compensation. Me? I'll be at Club Sportscentre until 3 a.m., earning a slightly embarrassing wage, and getting heckled (via text messages) by my drunk friends.

24-14

That's the record to close out the season that leaves Toronto with 40 wins on the season, and a likely playoff berth (quick Hollinger playoff odds update: Raps have a 16% chance of making the post-season).

A QUIET CHANGE

Anthony Parker has quietly had a profound change in his game, one that's not being talked about nearly enough this season. Over his first two seasons, Parker shot 48% from the field, and 44% from three-point land. That accuracy gave him a true shooting percentage that put him up with the likes of Ray Allen, Brent Barry, etc... as one of the most "efficient" long-range jump shooters in the game.

This year, Parker is making just 39% of his three-point attempts, and 43% of his shots overall. He's gone from being one of the best to ranking 45th among SG in true shooting percentage. 

From a totally non-statistical point of view, I would hold the opinion that he's getting just as many open looks as previous years, he just seems to be missing more. My opinion would also be that he's played more basketball over the past two or three calendar years than he ever has, and he's 34 years old, so it could be argued he's lost his legs a little bit (which would explain the three-point drop).

Here's an argument though, that says it might not be solely Parker's fault for his drop in accuracy: The same thing has happened to Toronto's best shooter. Jason Kapono made roughly half of his three point attempts over the past two seasons. In short, he was the most accurate three-point shooter in the league. This season, he's at 42%.

Based on that information, here's a theory: Over the previous two seasons, Toronto's three-point shooters normally received passes from Caldeford as they were coming off a screen & roll, or when Ford had beaten his man off the dribble. This year, Ford is gone (as is his ability to break defences down), and more of Toronto's offence is originating in the post (where none of Bosh, O'Neal, or Bargnani are known as good passers). This has probably allowed defences to key in on Toronto's shooters more than in the past.

(The lesson: Whether you want to admit or not, T.J. Ford was more valuable to this team than most people realize)

MIS-DIALING FROM LONG DISTANCE

Looking first at Parker's numbers, then Kapono's, I decided to look at the Raptors team as a whole, here is what I found:

• Last season: Raps ranked 2nd in 3PT%; This season: 10th
• Last season: Raps had 10 players taking at least two three pointers per game; This season: 7
• Last season: Raps had 8 players shoot better than the league average from three-point land; This season: 4 

So, how much of this has to do with Ford? The loss of Delfino? The injury to Calderon? It's tough to say, however, this could have been another addition to my previous post for sure.

STALLING IN THE CLUTCH

Which brought me to my last little idea of the day: Perhaps the lack of dribble penetration (from Ford) and the lack of both the quality and quantity of three-point shooters on the floor has led to Chris Bosh struggling in the clutch this season.

(Quick note: Remember, 82games defines "clutch" as 5 minutes remaining in 4th quarter or overtime with neither team ahead by more than 5 points)

• Last 2 seasons: Net +/- of +4; This season: -30
• Last 2 seasons: 38 pts per 48 mins; This season: 30 
• Last 2 seasons: 25 FGA per 48 mins; This season: 20
• Last 2 seasons: 4.5% of shots were blocked; This season: 10%

I call that last stat the "Joakim Noah shocking stat of the day." The fact that the rate at which his shots are blocked has doubled is surprising enough, but it's even more surprising when you consider the fact that half of Bosh's shot attempts in the clutch last season were "inside shots" compared to just 43% this season. So, he's taking more jumpers AND he's getting blocked more often?

Perhaps it's a chicken & egg thing: BECAUSE he's getting blocked so often inside this season, he's adjusted by taking more jumpers.

Anyways, it's tough to say whether this is because teams are really keying in on Bosh late in games, or he's not making the right decisions with the ball (though his 48% FG this season is a career best in the clutch); or just the lack of team depth is catching up with him.

Here's one thing to consider: As of today, no player in the NBA has played more minutes this season than Chris Bosh. That's amazing enough, but add in the fact that no other player in the Top 20 is a true post player, then add in the Olympic experience, and maybe Bosh's failings in the clutch have as much to do with fatigue as anything else.

What's different?

That's what I've been asking myself about these Raptors of late. What's different? What has changed about this team that's made them so poor late in games this season?

If you're wondering what's made me think about that question. Consider the following:

• The Raptors are one of only two teams in the NBA that have yet to win a game by three points or less this season (The other team is Cleveland, but, you know, they're doing ok. They've only lost one game by three or less actually).
• The Raptors are 8-15 in games decided by 10 points or less this season. Only the Washington Wizards have a worse winning percentage in the East.
• If games were only played to halftime, the Raptors would have a winning record and be in the playoffs. They're 21-20-2 in first halves this season.
• The Raptors are 2-21 when trailing after three quarters. Only New York & Washington have a worse record.

So, ya, late in games, Toronto is really, really, really.... bad. (Remember, I vowed not to swear using this forum)

What I've done today is look back at some key team metrics for each of the past three seasons. Obviously, the past two seasons have resulted in playoff appearances, and it doesn't seem as if this year will end with that result, so hopefully what we'll find is a few patterns that mirror that performance.

COMMON THREADS

First, let's present the commonalities between this season and the previous two (or, areas where patterns don't really exist):

• PACE OF PLAY - The Raps ranked 9th, 23rd, and 18th over the past three seasons
• eFG% - 10th, 8th, 12th
• OPPONENT eFG% - 21st, 21st, 22nd

(Quick note: effective field goal percentage takes into account the added value of a three-pointer)

This tells us that the Raptors are still hitting shots and allowing their opponents to hit shots are essentially the same rates as the last two seasons. So, to those of you who say it's defence that's the problem, you could be wrong.

THE PROBLEMS PRESENT THEMSELVES

Here are the things that really stuck out when looking at Toronto's numbers over the past three seasons (and thanks to basketball-reference for that):

• TURNOVER %: 3rd in 06-07, 1st in 07-08, 14th in 08-09
• OPP. TURNOVER %: 12th, 15th, 24th
• DEF. REB %: 8th, 4th, 20th

GET ON THE GLASS!

Let's start with the last one (which is probably the most surprising). Contrary to popular belief, the Raptors were a good defensive rebounding team over the past two seasons. The reason for their poor overall rebounding numbers was the fact that they had an organizational philosophy of never crashing the offensive glass (they were more concerned with transition defence). Actually, they've even gotten worse at offensive rebounding (25th last year, 29th this season).

Anyways, so while Toronto's overall rebounding numbers never looked impressive, and writers would constantly opine about this team's need for a stud rebounder, it wasn't really that much of an issue on the defensive end. And intuitively, you'd think the addition of Jermaine O'Neal 

would only help in this regard. 

It hasn't.

But, Toronto's poor rebounding hasn't been the fault of Jermaine O'Neal. He's been an improvement over Rasho Nesterovic. And it also hasn't been the fault of Chris Bosh, who's actually improved his rebounding rates this season as well.

So, who's at fault? Here's three reasons why the Raptors have become a below average defensive rebounding team:

• The 3rd big man: Kris Humphries was this team's best rebounder last season. This season, he's an after-thought. He's been replaced by Andrea Bargnani, who is one of the worst defensive rebounders in the NBA.
• The Jamario Effect: Jamario Moon was one of the league's best rebounders at small forward last season (21.6% DREB). That rate has dropped to 16.3% this season. Is he not working as hard? Sitting on the perimeter?
• The Delfino Effect: Carlos Delfino was one of the league's best rebounding wingmen as well last year (18.1%). His minutes have been replaced by one of the worst in Jason Kapono (8.1%) and Joey Graham (15%).

I've mentioned before that Chris Bosh and Jermaine O'Neal are only marginal rebounders compared to other bigs around the league. Add in Andrea Bargnani's awful nose for the ball and the only way you can have a decent rebounding team is to have a group of swingmen that can really get after it. Moon did last year, as did Delfino. Shawn Marion also could help greatly in this regard. But Jason Kapono, Anthony Parker, Joey Graham, and this year's version of Moon can't cut it.

NON-OPPORTUNISTIC

Now, let's look at why the Raptors have gone from a slightly above-average team to one of the worst in the league when it comes to forcing turnovers.

Three factors that revealed themselves in the previous discussion also apply here. First, Jamario Moon has become a much less active shot blocker this season compared to last. Secondly, Kris Humphries stole the ball at a much higher rate last season than Andrea Bargnani is this season. And finally, Carlos Delfino stole the ball at a much higher rate last season than the combo of Graham and Kapono this season.

Two other key positions have regressed from last season, the first being point guard: T.Jose Caldeford produced a steal on about 2.5% of possessions last season. Will Caldeukic is at about 1.5% this season. That doesn't seem like much except when you consider that's about one steal per game, or roughly 80 extra possessions in a season.

Finally, whether it's the Olympics, the added workload, the added pressure, the frustration, whatever... but Chris Bosh has become a much less active defender this season. His steal rate and block rate have both dropped considerably year-over-year.

I MISS T.JOSE CALDEFORD

I've saved the most drastic rankings slide for last. How did a team go from the league's best at taking care of the ball last season to just league average in 08-09? 

I'd love to tell you that it's not just the point guards. That other players have shown drastic regressions in how they've handled the rock.... but I can't. It's the point guard play. There's no other way to put it. Not only have Will Solomon and Roko Ukic been a disaster, but the injuries to Jose Calderon have made them more of a disaster than originally expected!

Now, I know I've fed you a lot of numbers today, but stick with me for one last section, and I promise you'll be happy. I've gone through the past three seasons to come up with a Raptors PG PER, which is essentially a weighted average (based on minutes played) of how Toronto's point guards have performed over the past three seasons. Over the two previous years, it was T.Jose Caldeford (with a dash of Darrick Martin sprinkled in), while this year it's been Will Caldeukic (for simplicity sake, I won't account for Anthony Parker's play at point guard over the last two games).

RAPTORS PG PER

08-09: 14.8

07-08: 20.4

06-07: 18.2

Remember, 15 is considered average! So even with one of the league's best in Jose Calderon, Toronto has received below-average point guard play this season. 

To put it in perspective, I've looked at this year's PG PER rankings to come up with an NBA player whose rating comes closest to these numbers:

08-09: Kyle Lowry

07-08: Chauncey Billups

06-07: Andre Miller

So two years ago, we were getting a solid, if not spectacular (Andre Miller) level of play from our point guards. Last year, we were getting an MVP type of combined performance from Caldeford. This year, we're getting a journeyman performance.

THE SILVER BULLET

In economics, we learned that education was the silver bullet of development. Educate your country and it effects everything... health, wealth, human rights, etc...

Well, I believe I found the silver bullet to this Raptors team. As much as we want to slag Jamario Moon for taking an ill-advised three, or Chris Bosh for failing in the clutch, the fact is point guard play will be the reason this team goes from the playoffs to the lottery. Can you argue that shoddy point guard play hasn't at least contributed to:

• 4th quarter struggles
• Turnovers
• Calderon's injuries
• Bosh's struggles

So I believe we've found the silver bullet, the only problem is (warning: cheesy line coming up)... I think it's already been shot.

Shawn Marion -- Broken Down

So, this was an inevitable posting coming from me. Now that it seems almost guaranteed that Shawn Marion will be coming to the Raptors, I have to ask (or answer) the following questions: Will he help the Raptors? How has he performed in his first full season outside of the realm of Steve Nash? What will he bring to the table that's different from the current crop of Raptor swingmen provide?

(Quick aside before I begin: After that awful loss to Phoenix--that defence was embarrassing by the way--Hollinger's playoff odds say the Raptors only have a one in three shot of making the post-season)

MARION, THE GOOD

Quick stat: One of only three players on the Heat with a positive "Roland Rating".  

Here's the most obvious quality Marion will bring to the Raptors, and it can't be emphasized strongly enough (I guarantee it won't be emphasized enough in the mainstream media). Let me put it in capital letters for you: SHAWN MARION IS THE BEST REBOUNDING SMALL FORWARD IN THE NBA. You can go to 82games or Hollinger's player stats for that. Now obviously, since Toronto ranks 28th in rebounding, this is the biggest benefit when considering bringing Marion aboard. However, here's one thing to consider: This benefit will be negated at least in part because of the loss of Jermaine O'Neal. It's not that O'Neal was all that great of a rebounder (34th among NBA centres), it's the fact that Andrea Bargnani is that bad of a rebounder (56th out of 57 NBA centres).  One more caveat: The negative effect of having more Bargnani will also be offset by the fact that this trade will also likely mean more Kris Humphries, who is actually Toronto's best rebounder.

For my second point, consider the following numbers: 23%, 15%, 10%... now consider the next number: 45%

The first three numbers are how often Toronto's top three wingmen (Kapono, Parker, Moon) take inside shots. The last number is how often Shawn Marion takes an inside shot. After rebounding, Toronto's biggest weakness is likely their fondness for jump shots. This makes them an erratic and inconsistent team (when shots are falling, they look great... when they aren't, they don't). Marion will help in this regard. Again, the effect will be partly muted because of the Bargnani / O'Neal comparison, but (again) that effect will also be muted because of how often Humphries goes to the basket.

Marion's final key benefit to the Raptors will be how his presence will allow this roster to be maximized. It is obvious that he will help the wing position, however, as you saw during the Phoenix game, an outside benefit to having Marion could be having Anthony Parker periodically run the point (when matchups allow it). Parker's lack of athleticism has been exposed against many shooting guards this year, however, against certain point guards, Parker could be used (allowing the team to avoid ever putting Will Solomon on the floor). Therefore, the presence of Marion would give the team the following rotation:

PG: Calderon followed by Parker or Ukic (as matchups dictate)

SG: Marion, Parker, Moon, Graham (or Kapono)

PF/C: Bosh, Bargnani, Hump

What are the benefits to this rotation:

1. Goodbye Will Solomon

2. Goodbye to one of Kapono or Graham

Essentially, what I'm saying is the benefit of having Marion isn't just what he brings to the table, it's what he'll allow Jay Triano to do in terms of the other 8 or 9 Raptors that will see the floor.

MARION, THE BAD

Quick stat: Marion is averaging 12 points per 36 minutes, his lowest rate of production in his career.

Another bad stat: Marion is shooting 19% from three point land this season, his lowest rate since his rookie year. Now in fairness to Marion, though that is an awful number, it's not as if he's taking three or four long-range bombs per game like he did when he was in Phoenix. He's only taking about one per game.

The final bad stat: According to the defensive ratings at basketball-reference, Marion is having the worst defensive season of his career. Now, defensive ratings are the biggest weakness in basketball statistical analysis, however, it still warrants mentioning to those people who believe Marion will instantly improve Toronto's defence. However, I don't care how bad of a year he's having relative to his previous seasons, he's still better than any Raptor wingman.

MARION, THE UNKNOWN

According to those great folks at 82games, Marion's has been most effective this season when Miami has gone small, and he's played the power forward position. Now he only plays the 4 about half as much as he plays the 3, however, this is similar to his time in Phoenix and reflects what a lot of scouts think about Marion--that he's at his best when he has a big speed and quickness advantage against opposing power forwards.

Why is this an unknown? Well, how often Toronto will use Marion at the 4 is the $17,000,000 question. Because, even if Marion is most effective at that position, it would present the same problem as before, Toronto's lacklustre current crop of wing players would be prominently involved.

THE FINAL VERDICT

Marion's key weaknesses--his poor shooting and declining scoring ability--aren't really that big of a deal on a team that has enough shooters and enough people that can score. In addition, Marion's key strengths--his rebounding and athleticism--are two things that are in dire need on this team. 

Add in the contractual situation and I believe that makes this deal a slam dunk for the Raptors (relatively speaking--for a team that is ten games under .500).

The Hot Stove is Burnin Up!

Mr. Grange took the rumours from the 'Net to the local media, and now Adrian Wojnarowski at Yahoo Sports has taken the O'Neal for Marion swap international! The highlight from the story: "O'Neal was telling league associates as recently as Friday that he believes he'll end up in Miami."

If the player is saying that, then that means the agent is pushing for it, and if the agents are involved, trades usually happen.

As the Raptors turn....

Mr. Grange has taken the O'Neal to the Heat or Bulls rumours mainstream. I can't tell you how much I want to see the Heat deal happen. If that happened, my top priority in the off-season would be signing potential free agent Hedo Turkoglu to whatever he wanted to play the 3.

J.O. SAYS HE'S COOL COMING OFF THE PINE

Jermaine O'Neal says the bench is fine for him. As my ex-girlfriend used to say, "words are words, actions are actions." Before the season, J.O. also said he'd be fine letting Bosh run the show and run the offence, that he was fine being a complementary player. Well, up to this point in the season, Chris Bosh takes exactly five shots per 12 minutes (one quarter), O'Neal takes 4.9.... yep, he's really taken a back seat.

So, forgive me for waiting a few games before I'm convinced J.O. is as big of a team player as he says he is.

BULLS GAME --- REVISITED

Bulls game... bullet style

• The Raps had no plan for defending Derrick Rose--especially when the Bulls went small in the fourth quarter. No zone? Diamond-one? Flashing double teams? Frustrating to watch.
• Nocioni could help the Raptors, no doubt about that. He moves the ball well for a three, can put it on the floor, and can hit the open 'J'. He also played the four for Chicago when they went small
• Larry Hughes is in street clothes, I couldn't even tell you if he was hurt, though I can tell you he did seem very interested in the females located in the section directly behind Chicago's bench
• Chris Bosh misses Jose Calderon. It's amazing how much Roko and Will Solomon struggle to make a decent entry pass.

BARGNANI

Three stats I found about Andrea Bargnani that help explain what he's improved on this season:

(Quick aside: My thoughts from Andrea during the Chicago game? The game has slowed down for him. He takes what's given to him, exploits size advantages down low, uses his quickness against bigger checks, and is still active on the defensive end. The big change from a week or two ago? He's not missing left or right anymore, which was a really weird blip on his career path--maybe he was working on his mechanics.)

Anyways, onto the stats:

A career-high 24% of Bargnani's shot attempts this season have been "inside" shots. Keep in mind, that's even accounting for his brief stint as a starting small forward.

Bargnani also has career highs this year in rebounding rate and block rate. I find that encouraging because that means even when he was struggling offensively, Il Mago was still producing on the defensive end.

That's it for now. Have a good weekend.

O'Neal for.... (do it now!!!)

Will have my post up about the Bulls game later on today, but wanted to pass this along first (and honestly, I can't believe I haven't mentioned this scenario already. I've been advocating trading this Raptor for weeks now, and I've also been a proponent of bringing this opposing player on board since the beginning of the year... why didn't I put two & two together???):

From SI's Truth & Rumours:

"The chances of Shawn Marion remaining with the Heat for the balance of this season are quite slim. And the thought here is that it would be in the Heat's best interest to trade this bouncy All-Star forward soon. This isn't an indictment of Marion as a player. On the right team, for the right price, Marion would be a crucial contributor. But the issue here isn't only that the Heat is not the ideal fit for Marion, whose numbers will never match his career averages in this Dwyane Wade-dominated, half-court-heavy system. It's also that Marion badly wants to be traded, as well. The Heat's goal in moving Marion is to get back a quality big man with a contract that expires in the 2010 offseason. There's a trio of big men who fit the Heat's trade criteria: Sacramento's Brad Miller, Los Angeles' Marcus Camby and Toronto's Jermaine O'Neal."

Miami Herald

The deal makes so much sense (and here it is, in Trade Machine format). Neither team gives up the ability to compete for a playoff spot this season--if anything, the trade is one of those old school baseball deals that makes both teams better. Miami, probably the smallest team in the league, gets bigger. Meanwhile, Toronto, maybe the most unathletic team in the league, gets a much-needed dose of speed and hops.

Live from the Bulls game...

I was graciously offered tickets tonight to the Bulls & Raptors (I also graciously accepted them). So, I'll be in section 120, watching intently to see if this Bargnani surge is for real.

Other things I'll be watching for / evaluating:

- How the Raptors choose to defend the pick & roll of Derrick Rose

- Whether Nocioni and Hughes still have a pulse / could help the Raptors

- Toronto's substitution patterns

- The effort level of Drew Gooden (I suspect it's very low)

- Chris Bosh's body language

FYI, I won't be wearing the Caldeford jersey.

One more from out West

Quick note before I get to my two Jermaine O'Neal trade proposals of the day: I didn't get to see the Raptors game today, however, when I saw the box score, here was my first thought: Is it just me, or does Ray Allen seem to score 1000 points and shoot 90% from the floor whenever he plays the Raptors?

I'm not going through his entire career, but consider this:

06-07: 26 ppg vs NBA, 32 ppg vs Raptors

07-08: 17 ppg vs NBA, 21 ppg vs Raptors

08-09: 18 ppg vs NBA, 25 ppg vs Raptors

So, ya, he (similar to swingmen around the league) likes playing against Toronto's shoddy wing defence.

O'NEAL TRADE SCENARIOS

Over at ESPN's Weekend Dime, Marc Stein reports that two teams are in desperate need for a 5 that provides some type of low-post scoring. They are the Bulls, and the Mavericks.

Using that as my motivation, let me present two more Jermaine O'Neal trades:

Option #1: Toronto sends Jermaine O'Neal and Jason Kapono to Dallas for Josh Howard, Erick Dampier, and Jerry Stackhouse

Why the Mavs make this trade: Howard has fallen out of favour in Dallas. O'Neal gives them an offensive complement to Dirk. They rid themselves of Dampier's awful contract. Stackhouse has barely played this year and still has another year at 7 mill left on his deal.

Option #2: Toronto sends Jermaine O'Neal and Jason Kapono to Chicago for Larry Hughes, Andres Nocioni and Drew Gooden

Why the Bulls make this trade: They get their low post presence; They rid themselves of Hughes' awful deal.

I think both options are realistic (though I'm sure I'll hear otherwise), and I think both accomplish the goal of making Toronto's wing contingent more athletic and better on the defensive end.

Something Ray Allen is certainly hoping doesn't happen anytime soon.

Hodge Podge from Out West pt. 2

Some quick tidbits before I delve into more pressing matters: Basketball Prospectus has an interesting article about how the East has stepped it up against the opposing conference this season. The gist (jist?): After posting a 44% winning percentage in each of the last five seasons against the West, the East is winning 55% this season. Check the link for possible explanations (or just know this: the bottom six teams in the West are really, really, really bad).

One other note from around Basketball Prospectus: They dig into the East's three best point guards (and for your information, Jose Calderon is not one of them---we're talking about performance this season, and honestly, I can't argue with their selections). They say Devin Harris is number one, slightly ahead of Jameer Nelson and Rajon Rondo.

IL MAGO!

Quick Bargnani note (alert: this is your.... STAT OF THE DAY!): The Big Italian has scored at least 18 points in six straight games (a career-long streak). In 2007-08, his longest such streak was three games. In his rookie season, his longest such streak was two game.

He's also averaging six boards and nearly two blocks per game during that stretch. So, this has brought on the call for the Italian to remain in the starting lineup when Jermaine O'Neal returns.

J.O.

But do you think the ego of Jermaine O'Neal could accept coming off the bench of a team that's currently below .500? (note: I don't). Since 2000, O'Neal has played in 542 games, and he's come off the bench in 17 of them (3%). I suspect in almost every one of those 17 cases, he was recovering from an injury. Asking him to come off the bench when he's healthy is a completely different matter altogether.

But let's think about this, Toronto's offence revolves around Chris Bosh in the post. Why not make the second unit offence revolve around Jermaine O'Neal in the post? He loves getting touches in the low block, and he could take advantage of the third big man on opposing teams.

So in theory, it sounds good. But, don't forget how bad Bargnani has played this year. According to 82games, of those players who have played at least 35% of their team's total minutes, Bargnani has been the 11th worst player in the league (slightly ahead of Mo Evans). 

The question must be asked: Is a little tease from Il Mago worth perhaps poisoning the attitude in the room? (secondary question: Do you care about the attitude in the room if a team's below .500?)

I'll think about those questions as I'm flying back from Calgary.

Hodge Podge from Out West

Quick thoughts before hopping on a plane bound for the Rockies where I (most likely) will tear (at least) one knee ligament while trying to ski the slopes.

Mr. Grange has hopped aboard the trade Jermaine O'Neal bandwagon. However, his reasons are to blow up this season as quickly as possible; gain a lottery pick; and sign free agents this off-season as opposed to next (thereby creating a stronger argument for Chris Bosh to stay with the Raptors). 

I'd love to argue with his logic, but you really can't. I'm fairly confident the Raptors could move up to at least 7th in the standings by the end of the season, but could they catch the Miami Heat for 6th? Because if the best you can get is the 7th seed (and a date with the Celtics), then maybe you are better off just tanking now.

BOSTON FOR BUSINESS??

So an acquaintance of mine bumped into Jermaine O'Neal and his agent on a plane bound for Boston yesterday. Apparently they were just doing a bit of business. Obviously, we have no idea what the business is (could be an investment, sponsorship, to see a specialist, etc...) but, this is a blog, and blogs do speculate so.... would the Celtics consider adding O'Neal to their front court? Are they not satisfied with Perkins? Something to consider: O'Neal has moved up to 17th among NBA centres in PER (above average), while Perkins ranks 38th (below average).

BEST TEAM IN BASKETBALL

Speaking of the Celts, remember when the Bill Simmons' of the world were up in arms when people were even considering that the Cavaliers were the best team in the East (I was one of those people "considering")... Well, 18-0 at home, beating their opponents by an AVERAGE of nearly 13 points per game. I think we've all settled that argument (at least for now).