Thursday, June 11, 2009

Stanley Cup Thoughts

Thought #1: Why is Marian Hossa getting hammered so much in the press?

Here's the thing, I understand why the media is focusing on Hossa so much, it's a natural storyline. However, it seems to me like everyone just looks at the fact that he hasn't scored a goal and therefore, has determined Hossa has played like a bum. But, consider these numbers:

Hossa: 3 pts, +1, 20 shots
Player X: 3 pts, -2, 15 shots

Based on those numbers, you'd have to determine that the two players have played similarily well, or Hossa has played better (tough to tell just on those numbers but...).

Anyways, Player X is Sidney Crosby, and I guarantee you haven't heard as many stories about Crosby struggling in the Stanley Cup final as you have about Hossa.

Thought #2: The NHL is playing a dangerous game with their officiating.

There's been a lot said about how nice it's been to see the refs put their whistles away during the Cup final and how good the hockey has remained regardless. Well, I think we should all realize that this is only possible because of the two teams that are playing in this Cup final. Pittsburgh and Detroit are two of the cleanest teams in the league, and I think that's the only reason the refs have been able to not call as many penalties. If you saw any two other teams in the Final, I think it would have been a drastically different scenario.

Thought #3: Which goalie would you rather have for Game 7? Osgood or Fleury?

I think most casual fans would say Fleury is the better goalie (based on both subjective and objective analysis). Others would cite Osgood's three Stanley Cup rings as the strongest argument one way or another.

However, my choice would centre around Fleury's penchant for giving up bad goals in big games (dating back to gold medal games at the World Juniors). Now, he erased some of those bad memories with a solid Game 7 vs Washington (see his breakaway save vs Alex Ovechkin), and with his performance in Game 6 of this series, however, there's just something about him that makes me nervous.

Thought #4: Assuming a lack of a defining performance in Game 7, who would be the Conn Smythe winner should Detroit win? Or if Pittsburgh won?

I think there are only four logical candidates: Zetterberg, Osgood, Crosby, & Malkin. Here are the brief arguments:

Zetterberg: The best all-around player in the playoffs (default winner since Datsyuk was injured)... leading scorer for the Wings
Osgood: GAA hovering around 2, makes the saves when you need them... a default 2nd candidate for Detroit because Lidstrom has seemed a step slow since coming back from injury
Crosby: Probably works harder than any great player in the game. Has developed a knack for goal scoring in these playoffs that most didn't know existed.
Malkin: Carried the team when Crosby was scuffling... the league's leading scorer.... 

Personally, I think you can easily narrow it down to Zetterberg and Malkin. Zetterberg gets more ice time per game than any other forward in the Cup final, and he's been dynamic (especially when Datsyuk is in the lineup with him). And Malkin has put up the most points in a single playoff since Gretzky rung up 40 back in 1993. Add to that his improving defensive play, and his growing penchant for hitting and post-whistle skirmishes, and you have an all-around player worthy of the Conn.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Website you've gotta check out....

Much like how 82games.com sucked the life out of me during basketball season...Fangraphs is about to do the same during baseball season. The stats are great, they're doing some new stuff, and I love it all... Here now are a few nuggets to chew on:

Nugget #1: Only three players in Major League Baseball have an OPS above 1.000 and more walks than strikeouts on the season (essentially, these are the players that combine an ability to generate contact, while also generating power):

A. Pujols: 1.116 OPS, 2.10 BB/K ratio
A. Gonzalez: 1.059 OPS, 1.12 BB/K ratio
C. Jones: 1.018 OPS, 1.21 BB/K ratio

Nugget #2: They track statistics on every ball hit into play. One of the stats they track is "line drive percentage" (the percentage of balls a player hits that are line drives... self-explanatory, yes). My fantasy team killer Garrett Atkins is last in the Majors with a 12.8 line drive %. Jays 3B Scott Rolen is 2nd in the Majors with a 28.9 percentage.

Nugget #3: They also track every pitch a batter sees during the season, and this provides some real interesting data. For instance, only four players in all of baseball see less than 50% fastballs (this could mean these players are very poor at identifying pitches, laying off pitches out of the zone, etc...):

A. Soriano 44.2% FB
R. Howard 46.4% FB
J. Francoeur 47.8% FB
H. Blalock 49.7% FB