Toronto: The worst sports city in North America??? - Expanded Edition

So, the other day I pointed out that since Joe Carter's World Series winning homerun, no Toronto team has played for a championship. That 16-year drought, I hypothesized, had to be among the longest current droughts of any major sports city in North America (major = a minimum of three pro sports teams in the metropolitan area).

Here is a list again of the top (or bottom) cities:

LONGEST CURRENT TITLE APPEARANCE DROUGHT

Minneapolis / St. Paul 18 years

Toronto 16 years

Washington D.C. 11 years

Milwaukee / Green Bay 11 years

Atlanta 10 years

*minimum 3 pro sports franchises

Well, I decided to expand on the analysis a bit, and use playoff appearances since that Carter homerun as the barometer to rank these cities. First, a couple points of emphasis:

1. I understand not all playoff spots are created equal. MLB (8 / 30) & NFL (12 / 32) have drastically tougher paths to the post-season than NHL (16 / 30) & NBA (16 / 30). For the most part, this should even out but in some instances, it will be either a mitigating or exacerbating factor.

2. I don't really think this is a "better" way to gauge a city's sport success, just "another" way of doing it. The reason I say this: I'll take a team that misses the playoffs for a few years then comes back and actually competes for a title, rather than a team that is consistently getting knocked out of the playoffs in the first round. That being said, this is still another piece of (somewhat) valuable information.

3. After taking a look at a few Google maps, I've made the following geographical decisions: The Charlotte area does not qualify as a three-sport metro area. The Hurricanes are based in Raleigh, nearly three hours away from Charlotte. I'm using the "reasonable drive test" as my barometer for judging whether a team is "local" and the 'Canes fail that test.

4. I've grouped all of the nine Greater NYC teams into one giant conglomerate. Initially, I had the Devils, Nets, and Giants as a New Jersey area trio, but, I mean, the Giants and Jets play in the same damn stadium, so it's tough to separate them into different metro areas.

5. The Bay Area includes the San Jose Sharks (using the "reasonable drive" test, the Sharks are less than an hour away -- about 38 miles), giving them the Sharks, A's, Giants, 49ers, Raiders, and Warriors.

6. I'm torn (well, as torn as you can be about something like this) about whether to include Milwaukee as a qualified area. Green Bay is about 97 miles away from Milwaukee. Let's use 100 miles as our breaking point. It's in! (as the people of Wisconsin rejoice!)

RESULTS

So, we're left with 22 metropolitan areas that are home to 84 pro sports franchises. I won't list them all here, but I'll show you the top & bottom

THE BEST

1. Boston 57% playoff success rate

2. St. Louis 56%

3. Detroit 54%

4. New York 53%

T5. Dallas 52%

T5. Philadelphia 52%

T7. Denver 49%

T7. Pittsburgh 49%

There you have it. Just six cities have a collection of teams that make the playoffs more than half of the time. I have to say when you factor in this result with number of championships won, I think it's pretty clear that Boston is the best sports city in North America right now (which is painful to say because of how excruciating it is to listen to Boston sports fans, the real ones and the ones who are only fans because they think it's cool to be a Boston fan).

I don't think there's any major surprises on this list, other than to say it's impressive that St. Louis and Pittsburgh are on this list, given they're the only cities in the top 8 playing in only one of the two "easy" leagues to make the playoffs (NHL & NBA). Pittsburgh is actually 0-for-14 in baseball, but makes up for it with their outstanding NFL performance (over 70%). St. Louis' impressive totals stems from their 50% success rate in baseball (only Boston, the Yankees, and Atlanta have a higher success rate).

THE WORST

18. Cleveland 37%

T19. Chicago 35%

T19. Washington 35%

21. Toronto 33%

22. Tampa Bay 31%

Before we get to Toronto (and what this result means for the city), I want to talk about some big surprises here (in my opinion). Chicago, I think, is known a pretty good sports town, but they've been awful over the last 15 years. The Hawks have made the playoffs just six times, the Cubs and White Sox collectively have gone to the post-season just seven times, the Bears just four times, and the Bulls nine times. Now I understand why the city was so excited about the Blackhawks rebirth this past season.

Washington is also a pretty depressing sports town when you consider this result, and the fact that they've played for just one championship during this time (the '98 Caps). Again, this provides an explanation for the D.C. area going crazy over Alex Ovechkin.

Now, finally we get to Toronto. Let's break this thing down:

MLB: 0 / 14 - This will be 15 in just a few months, the only saving grace is the strike from 1994 that saved the city another year of ineptitude. Stuck in a division with the Red Sox and Yankees (and even the Rays), I can't see a playoff berth coming any time soon unless the team switches divisions or MLB moves away from an unbalanced schedule (and, quick lesson: The Jays management doesn't want either of those things to happen... they'd rather get the increased gate receipts from a bunch of home games against Boston and New York rather than, you know, have more than a 0.01% chance of making the playoffs.

NBA: 5 / 14 - The Raptors haven't been as bad of a franchise as some people would like you to believe. If you accept the fact that most expansion teams will require three or four years to get off the ground, then all of a sudden, five playoff appearances over the last decade doesn't seem all that bad. Here's the tricky part of this analysis though, because the team has won only one playoff series in 14 years of operation, meaning they've never been a serious title contender. Are they on that path now? I think that's still up for debate, but they should add another playoff appearance to the resume after this season.

NHL: 9 / 15 - The only saving grace that keeps this city from being downright embarrassing is the performance of the Quinn / Sundin / Joseph era Maple Leafs. Who would have thought we would look back on that era fondly. But again, were they serious Stanley Cup contenders? Or let's put it another way, look at all the other big-spending teams from this era: Detroit (15/15), Colorado (11/13), Philadelphia (13/15), Dallas (12/15) all have avoided major rebuilding (well, until now for Colorado). Why were the Leafs the only big-spending team that couldn't make the playoffs on a truly consistent basis, or turn their spending into at least one appearance in the Cup Final?

CONCLUSION

So here's the way I choose to look at this: Toronto is the worst sports city in North America. They're the only city that fails in both of these tests. Look at the cities in the basement with them in today's analysis:

Cleveland has been to a World Series, the NBA Finals, and is poised to win an NBA title sooner rather than later. Chicago has won a World Series, played in a Super Bowl, and won a boatload of NBA titles. Washington has been to a Stanley Cup Final, and has the best player in hockey playing in their city. Tampa Bay has been to a World Series, and won both a Stanley Cup and a Super Bowl. All of these cities have had at least something to get excited about over the last 15 or so years.

Then take a look at the analysis from earlier in the week: Atlanta has gone a while without a title, but they've got a perennial contender in baseball, and two teams on the upswing in football and basketball. Milwaukee / Green Bay is in a bit of a depressing state, but they still have a football team that contends more often than not.

Meanwhile, Minneapolis-St. Paul, the only area with a longer title appearance drought than Toronto, has been a much more consistent playoff performer (44%), and has had a couple teams that were true title contenders (Cunningham-Carter-Moss Vikings, Garnett-Cassell-Sprewell Timberwolves). And as I said the other day, I think the Twins & Vikings have a better shot of erasing their title game drought than any team currently residing in the GTA.

All in all, this has been a pretty depressing couple hours of work for me. What's next? I think we need to examine why Toronto is the worst performing major sports city in North America. Does it have to do with management? Fan support (or a lack thereof)? Geographical considerations? We shall see.

Toronto: The worst sports city in North America??? - Continued

Just an FYI: My next step in this analysis will be ranking the 24 metropolitan areas in terms of playoff appearances (quick teaser: Toronto will be close to the bottom).

Toronto: The worst sports city in North America???

All this talk about the impending trade of Roy Halladay has depressed me a bit as a sports fan. The trade (which is all but inevitable) will lead to yet another rebuilding phase for the Blue Jays (I think the 3rd or 4th rebuilding phase since their World Series title).

Which got me to thinking... with the Jays poised to throw up the white flag once again, the Leafs in perennial white flag mode, and the Raptors still not on the level of "championship contender," has any pro sport city in North America had a more depressing decade or so of ineptitude?

Think about it, the city of Toronto hasn't had one team even play for a championship in 16 years (and those were my prime sports-watching years!!!). 

That last sentence prompted my last bit of mini-research, which was: Does any city in North America with at least three major pro sports franchises (MLS not included) have a longer current drought?

What do you guys think? Take a guess before looking below... I'll even give you a bunch of spaces before I present the data.........

LONGEST CURRENT TITLE APPEARANCE DROUGHT

Minneapolis / St. Paul    18 years

Toronto                           16 years

Washington D.C.              11 years

Milwaukee / Green Bay  11 years

Atlanta                               10 years

So there you have it, only those poor Minnesotans have had to wait longer than us poor Torontonians. Here's a question: Who's more likely to snap the skid earlier? Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson and a dominant Vikings defence might have something to say about this come February 2010. Or maybe Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and the Twinkies could take Minneapolis off the list. Either way, I think it's safe to say Toronto's prospects look much dimmer.

Going in a completely different direction

Rasho Nesterovic is a nice piece. He's a pro, he hits over half his shots, etc... but he has his drawbacks too. He probably can't even jump high enough to dunk anymore, he can't defend the pick and roll very well, and he's not someone that will be crashing the offensive glass with reckless abandon (or any kind of abandon).

So here's my idea of the day: Forget Rasho, use the bi-annual exception to get Ben Wallace under contract.

Let's break this down pro/con style:

CONS

- Redundant?: You could make a case that he's too similar to Toronto's other big off the bench, Reggie Evans.

- Backboards and rims will take a beating: Wallace shot just 18% on jumpers, and made just 42% of his free throws last season

PROS

- Board-crasher: Along with Evans, would give the Raptors two of the top 20 offensive rebounders in the game last season. Toronto's best last season was Chris Bosh, who ranked 87th

- Underrated passer: His 16.8% assist rate was 9th among NBA power forwards last season (just behind Pau Gasol)

- More points = more wins: Cleveland outscored their opponents by an average of 16 points per 48 minutes with Wallace on the floor. Why's that impressive? It was the highest mark on the team. With Lebron on the floor, the Cavs outscored their opponents by 14 pts per 48 mins.

- Quiet impact: Though the last thing you'd call Wallace is "savvy" on the offensive end of the court, he is a "savvy" basketball player overall (kind of the way I'd describe myself as a ball player). Consider: He draws more fouls than the man he's covering, outrebounds them, turns the ball over less, and blocks more shots. That's a winning basketball player

CONCLUSION

Yes, Wallace is similar to Evans, but that's the type of player I want on the bench. No matter what, you'll always have scorers on the floor with this team. I can't envision a scenario when all three of Turkoglu, Bosh, and Bargnani will be on the bench together. 

Here's the clearest way I can put it: Nesterovic, for the most part, won't negatively impact a game, but he won't really impact a game positively either. He's a "passive" player.

On the other hand, Wallace--as I've pointed out--won't negatively impact a game either, but he can impact a game positively with his ability to defend, block shots, and rebound. He's an "active" player.

You're starting to know Jack

Here's just a few video clips of the newest Toronto Raptor:

Standing up to a 6'11" Power Forward

A two-point jumper (remember those) to win vs New York

A huge defensive play (not sure Raptors know how to make those)

College Game-winner

A very awkward interview

Notes from the awkward interview: Jack went to high school with Amare Stoudemire... Stoudemire puts sugar on his grits... The reporter is wearing a short-sleeve, mock turtleneck... Jack's greatest off-the-court accomplishment is inspiring people while playing basketball (which technically, I think, is "on-the-court" but I digress)

You Don't Know Jack...

In honour of Jarrett Jack's impending arrival to the city of Toronto, I present my own version of the (mildly) entertaining trivia game "You Don't Know Jack."

Question #1: What position will Jack play with the Raptors?

Answer: Not as much point guard as most people think.  Local writers have assumed Jack will play the majority of his minutes backing up Jose Calderon at point guard (meaning also that Roko Ukic would have a reduced role). However, in my last post, I pointed out that Jack played the majority of his minutes last season at shooting guard. Indiana's back up point guard was Travis Diener, so it's not as if the Pacers were stacked at the position either. My gut feeling says DeRozan starts at the 2 next season, and Jack is the first guard off the bench (first to substitute DeRo, and then another shooting guard to relieve Calderon, moving Jack over to the point).

Question #2: Why didn't Jack play more point last season?

Answer: Well, T.J. Ford had a bit to do with it. But it also had to do with one pretty key stat: Jack's 12.3% Turnover Rate ranked 112th among guards in the NBA last season. If he wants to run the point (and honestly, I'm not sure what Jack's preference is, position-wise), then he needs to learn to take care of the basketball.

Question #3: What is the common thread between Jack and the other acquisitions Toronto has made this off-season?

Answer: The ability to get to the basket. I've touched on this before, but none of Toronto's wingmen last season possessed the ability to put the ball on the floor and get to the rim. The Raptors top 3 swingmen last season (Parker, Kapono, Moon) were notorious for being jump shooters. In fact, on average, only 16% of their shots came in the paint. Compare (and contrast) that to the players that will likely be replacing them this season:

Wright     36%

Turkoglu 27%

Delfino    27%

Jack        26%

(note: Delfino's percentage is from the 07-08 season)

Add in DeRozan's explosiveness and you can definitely see a pattern emerging with what Colangelo has done to his corps of wings this off-season.

Question #4: Ok, so we know what the common thread is between Jack and the other off-season acquisitions, but what is the common thread between Jack and the existing Raptors?

Answer: The two-point jumper. I'm not the biggest fan of the two-point jumper (see here and here) but Jack is one of the best in the NBA at the shot. He is one of only seven guards in the NBA to shoot 46% or better on two-point jumpers last season. Check out the list:

Jason Terry     .492 (45%)

Ray Allen         .487 (47%)

Steve Nash      .487 (9%)

Chris Paul       .479 (8%)

Derek Fisher  .476 (39%)

Mo Williams   .464 (31%)

Jarrett Jack .460 (23%)

Jack finds himself in some good company there, and it's even better when you consider the number in brackets. That is the percentage of the player's successful two-point jumpers that are assisted. This is where you realize that Jack really is a true "combo guard." Most shooting guards (like Allen and Terry) are catch & shoot guys (high percentage of their buckets are assisted on), whereas most true point guards (like Nash and Paul) shoot their jumpers coming off of pick & rolls (low percentage assisted on). Jack and Mo Williams are rare exceptions of guys who can do a bit of both, and do them both well.

Question #5: What else makes Jack a unique player, statistically speaking?

Answer: His "triple threat." Of the seven players listed above, Jack and Chris Paul were the only ones who balanced their skill at the two-point jumper with a willingness to score inside (both with 26% of their attempts coming in the paint). But Paul can't match Jack's ability to shoot from three-point land and that is where Jack's uniqueness is revealed. Only a few dozen players in the NBA satisfy what I will call the triple-threat qualification: A minimum of 25% of their shot attempts must come from each of three-point land, two-point jumpers, and inside.

This should identify players who have some of the most balanced offensive games in the league. However, it's one thing to take your shots from all over the court, making said shots is the true test. Baron Davis (37% FG), Stephen Jackson (41%), and Ron Artest (40%) are just a few examples of players who qualify for the "triple threat" designation but don't connect at a very high percentage, meaning them shooting from all over the court is probably more of a threat to their own team.

With that in mind, here are the leaders in field-goal percentage last season among players who qualified as "triple threats":

1. Mike Miller             .482

2. Jason Richardson   .477

3. Paul Pierce              .457

4. Eric Gordon            .456

5. Manu Ginobili        .454

6. Jarrett Jack        .453

*minimum 2000 minutes played

Final Question: Based on all of that geeky statistical info, is there a natural geeky stat-inspired nickname for Toronto's newest player?

Answer: Most Definitely. You need something that highlights his ability to play both guard positions, his ability to shoot from all over the floor and his ability to finish at the rim. It's a natural isn't it? Ladies and gentlemen, I present: Jarrett "Jack Of All Trades".

The Trade

By now, it's been talked about enough (and praised and praised and praised... I think the Smith brothers--The Star's Doug, and The Fan's cost-effective colour analyst Eric--had a dual orgasm reciting the details of the trade). Here's the thing: Colangelo deserves every bit of praise for making the trade. However, there's one key point to emphasize: The players involved in the deal are completely insignificant. The other day someone in the newsroom said Devean George will offer great "veteran leadership" for the Raptors! What? Excuse me? This was a guy searching for a reason to love the deal even more than it needed to be loved (quick aside: if you're looking to lose the respect of people who follow basketball at your work, use the term "veteran leadership" and attach it to Devean George... it's amazing how quickly you get made fun of around the room).

Quick stats of the day: Just to hammer home this George point one more time before I promise to move on: This is a guy who has never scored more than 8 ppg or grabbed more than 4 rpg in a season. He's started more than 17 games in a season just once, five years ago. This guy was/is a bit player, and now he's reached the point where he's an old bit player. Let's move on

ANYWAYS, Shawn Marion and Hedo Turkoglu don't have much to do with this deal (they were signing with their respective teams anyways), so essentially, it boils down to Toronto losing Kris Humphries and Nathan Jawai, while gaining Antoine Wright and the aforementioned fodder known as Devean George.

But wait! You intelligent readers out there are saying, "Chris, what about the valuable ability to re-sign and sign players that Toronto gained out of the deal?" You're exactly right intelligent readers... "and wait Chris, what about your gimmick of having conversations with your fake readers in order to get your points across... isn't that getting a little contrived and tired?" You're exactly WRONG, imaginary readers.

So, when looked at in terms of what Toronto had before the deal and what it had after, the deal is essentially Humphries and Jawai for Wright, George, and potentially Carlos Delfino, Jarrett Jack, and Rasho Nesterovic.

Let's get one thing out of the way as quickly as possible: Nathan Jawai played 19 minutes last season, and might have a big hole in his heart (not to get too unsentimental). Let's assume his chances of being a productive player in the NBA are about 0.0%.

But, Jawai aside (quick aside: I will never use the phrase "Jawai aside" in a phrase ever again after today... a little sad in a way), I am a bit sad to see The Hump go. Kris Humphries was a very productive player over the last two seasons, and a darling of the statistical world (maybe why Cuban and the Mavs were after him???). Numbers-wiser, he was the team's best rebounder, got to the free throw line more often than most Raptors, and he had a epiphany at the charity stripe last year, as he transformed from a career brick-layer (under 60%) to an above-average shooter (nearly 80%). That is the one stat that I think should worry Bryan Colangelo, because it showed that a player who is still very raw (no need to bring up the countless blown assignments on defence and the quick jumpers on offence) was showing the very-rare ability to improve upon his game. Who's to say what Hump's ceiling is as an NBA player if he can improve one part of his game that drastically from one season to the next. What if Dallas had him work on nothing but baseline 15-footers all summer? What could he become as a player? He's been a 15/10 player (per 36 minutes) over the last two seasons. If he is given Brandon Bass's former role with the Mavs (energy big off the bench) as I believe they will, he could become a 12/8 guy on a title contender in the West. Again, not to get too unsentimental, but that's what I'm worried about in this transaction. Not about losing someone who seems like a good guy or a good interview (as my boy, Mr. Grange would point out), but just losing an asset that has the ability to appreciate in value.

I rambled a little long on Mr. Hump, so the rest of the players I'll do bullet-point style:

• George: See paragraphs above re: his rotting basketball corpse 
• Wright: Not a darling of the statistical world, over at 82games, he ranked dead last on Dallas' roster in Roland Rating among those who were on the court at least 20% of the time last season. Between the Mavs adding a PER-darling in Hump, and getting rid of two PER-drainers in Wright and George, I'm thinking someone in that basketball ops department has a fondness for the John Hollingers of this world. All that being said, Wright can defend adequately, and shows a willingness to drive to the basket 
• Nesterovic: Toronto's biggest supporter in the NBA player community. Loves the city, and he'll have to show it to come back and play, as the Raps will probably only have their bi-annual (roughly $1.9 mill) to offer Nesterovic. He'll be a less-explosive (see their vertical leaps), less-productive (check their per minute splits), though more-dependable (see their IQs) version of Humphries.
• Delfino: Played last season in Siberia (not a metaphor for some basketball hell, I think he literally played in Siberia, or maybe just Russia, but you get the point). As a Raptor two seasons ago, Delfino was an overrated player. Toronto was 5 points per game better when Delfino was on the bench compared to when he was on the floor. And his defensive game was mostly based on reputation (as opposed to, you know, numbers). What caused this mis-ratedness (note: not a word)? Well, Delfino did seem to hit an inordinate amount of very tough shots (either slightly out of control lay ups or deep deep threes taken with 18 seconds left on the shot clock). And he also benefitted from perfectly coifed-hair and a resemblance to the Eastern european hearthrob doctor from the last few seasons of ER (Luka, I believe). Those are the only points I have to explain his status as a better player than he actually is.
• Jack: The most intriguing addition to the Raptor roster. Jack is a decent enough shooter (45% FG / 35% 3FG / 85% FT), who can play both guard positions (He played in a dual PG role with T.J. Ford last season--giving him and Jose ample amounts of conversation material). To those who say he is a point guard, 62% of his minutes came at the shooting guard spot last year, according to 82games. And it seems as if he was better at that spot as well (+0.7 Net PER at SG, -5.5 Net PER at PG). I will say I'm a bit worried about Jack and Calderon's collective defence when they're on the floor together (Indiana was one of the worst defensive teams in the league last season).

So here's my collective take: Anytime you can turn one bench player (regardless of his potential) into four rotation players and one journeyman, you have to do it. I will miss Hump, but the deal is a no-brainer and one that makes perfect sense, especially from the following perspective: 

Having four locked in starters already in place, it seems as if Colangelo is trying to give his coaching staff as many options as possible to fill the 48 minutes at two guard. It makes sense, because it's the biggest open question facing this team. Calderon, Turkoglu, Bosh, and Bargnani each will be taking up at least 35 minutes per game at their respective positions, meaning those backups will be of minimal importance. 

But the SG is an open question right now, so Colangelo is saying, "Want a young kid oozing with athleticism? Here's DeRozan. Want someone familiar with the system and the city? Here's Delfino. Want someone who can be an energy defender? Here's Wright. Want a combo guard that can play a bit at the point if Ukic stumbles? Here's Jack." 

The likelihood of all of these players contributing next season is close to zero. The most likely scenario is that two of them rise to the challenge and steal the starter's minutes. Who will be that lucky player? Your guess is as good as mine.

If Bryan Colangelo is working this hard...

Then there's no reason T.Jose Caldeford shouldn't work hard in the off-season too! Without further ado, let's get you caught up on the numbers from Toronto's biggest off-season acquisition.

Hedo Turkoglu joins the Raptors - Why you should be excited

After "The Turk" (what he will be called here on Caldeford from now on) signed in Toronto, all of the print, television, and radio media centered their focus on one thing: The Raptors signed a free agent! The Raptors signed a free agent! They barely scratched the surface of what this signing actually does for the team. I didn't hear one bit of analysis about how this CHANGES the Raptors. Where's Jack? Where's Leo? (That's how desperate I was).

Anyways, let's talk about what The Turk brings to the table:

1. Passing - According to 82games, The Turk was one of the best passing forwards in the game. In fact, only LeBron James and Stephen Jackson had a better passing rating among forwards. This is huge (especially for the Raptors). Toronto has lacked a playmaker on the wing ever since Vince Carter left town. And last year, the only player teams really had to worry about in terms of getting other players involved was Calderon. This signing makes Toronto's offence more dynamic and less predictable.

2. Get to the line! - The Raptors were the most accurate free throw shooting team in the NBA last season (at 82.4%). However, on most nights, they were unable to exploit this advantage because they were unable to get to the line enough to make opposing teams suffer from their accuracy. Toronto got to the line just 22.7 times per game (25th in the NBA). The Turk will help in this regard because he can dribble and drive (a simple skill, however, one that eluded many of Toronto's wing players... cough, Marion, cough, Moon, cough). Here is a breakdown of Toronto's guards and wingmen last season, and their "foul percentage" (fouls drawn divided by shot attempts):

Graham    13%

Ukic            9%

Moon          8%

Marion       7%

Parker        7%

Calderon    5%

Kapono      2%

Oh, Jason Kapono, I'll miss you. Anyways, Joey Graham played more like a power forward when he was in the game. So, essentially, you could say none of Toronto's guards had a foul percentage above 10% last season. Where does The Turk rank? He had a foul percentage of 13% last season, which would rank right at the top for the Raptors swingmen (and would also rank ahead of Bargnani and Jermaine O'Neal). Another underrated aspect of this signing that I won't go into too much detail about (because it's not "numbers" oriented) is how important it will be to have a ball-handler on the wing (which ties into this analysis about drawing fouls, and the previous analysis about passing). I think the presence of The Turk will have a huge impact on Jose Calderon and his ability to stay healthy and rested throughout the season. The Turk will be able to run the pick and roll and run the offence when Calderon needs a breather or when Triano simply wants to switch up sets. This will prove invaluable for the Raptors, and I'm predicting a big bounce back season for Calderon because of it. 

3. Rising to the level of play - The Turk raised his profile across the NBA for hitting big shots in the playoffs. This gave the impression that he could play well against the best teams in the league. Does that impression hold up when you look at the numbers? Last season, only 10 players in the NBA averaged more than 17 points, 4 assists, and 4 rebounds per game against the top 10 teams in the league (the upper tier). Here are those players (along with their plus/minus against the upper tier last season):

Kobe Bryant             153

LeBron James         100

Hedo Turkoglu     78

Brandon Roy             40

Chris Paul                -28

Dwyane Wade         -67

Andre Iguodola       -77

Andre Miller           -85

Stephen Jackson    -121

Caron Butler          -141

Those are some of the best all-around players in the NBA (and I can't believe Andre Miller is on that list - and he's available as a free agent right now... this is a guy who's made every team he's ever been on better... whoever signs him will exceed expectations next season, book it... but I digress). ANYWAYS, some of Toronto's key players (cough, Bosh, cough) are known to buckle under the pressure or against some of the better teams in the NBA. The Turk, it seems, will help in this regard. Let me put that in perspective for you before we move on: Bosh, Bargnani, Calderon, Kapono, and Parker all scored less against good teams than average or poor teams (again, broken down by tiers). The Turk scored more against good teams than average or poor teams. He's a gamer. Book it. Let's move on.

4. It's all about balance - Toronto's biggest weakness last season (even more than health, or rebounding) was their wing play (which I talked about ad nauseum). They had solid point guard play with Calderon and Ukic, and their post play was solid with Bosh, Bargnani, Humphries, and others. However, their Net PER on the wings was -7.0 (good for 28th in the NBA, only the Clippers and Knicks were worse). Turkoglu should boost their Net PER immediately at the SF position, and that could mean big things for the Raptors if last year's numbers are any indication. Toronto finished with a positive Net PER at three positions last year (PG, PF, C). Assuming Turkoglu pushes them into the positive at SF, that would give them a positive Net PER at four positions, something only five teams accomplished in the NBA last season. Here are those teams, along with their record:

Cleveland    66-16 (lost in East Final - to ORL)

L.A. Lakers 65-17 (won NBA Title)

Boston         62-20 (lost in East Semi - to ORL)

Orlando       59-23 (lost in NBA Final - to LAL)

Utah             48-34 (lost in 1st rd - to LAL)

TOTAL       300-110 (.732 win%)

That's pretty damn impressive. You could make a case those teams were the five best in the NBA last season (the Jazz were the darlings of the statistical world... just couldn't stay healthy). Now, in no way am I saying The Turk instantly pushes Toronto into this stratosphere. I think those top four teams all have something the Raptors don't: a legit NBA superstar that makes those around him that much better. However, I think Toronto's lineup is definitely starting to look somewhat Utah-like. Both teams revolve their offences around efficient shooters (from the field, line, and three-point land), and a never-ending stream of pick and rolls from all over the floor.

So there you have it. I think this signing is a slam dunk for the Raptors, and not because the city's basketball fans have shed their collective inferiority complex. The Turk has simply made the Raptors a much, much better team.

Now, I should at least mention the biggest risk with this signing, and how it indicates a change in thinking among Raptors management: With their frontcourt structured the way it is (Bosh and Bargnani), Colangelo and company seemed to make a concerted effort to fill their SF position with players who could defend and/or rebound (Moon, Marion, Graham) in order to make up for those deficiencies in their front court. What I believe Colangelo is now saying with this signing is the following: We understand what we have and don't have in Bosh and Bargnani, but a good rebounding SF won't make up for poor rebounders at PF and C. Therefore, we're going to shift to an even more European style than before. We're going to add another smooth offensive player, giving us four of them on the floor, and just make our two-guard an all-defence kind of player. It's a risky strategy, but one that I think they had to take.

Tomorrow, I'll take a look at Bryan Colangelo's miraculous trade (along with a fond farewell to Kris Humphries).