Questions & Answers vol. 1

We had so many questions before opening night, have any answers begun to emerge? What other questions popped up? Here's one obvious note:

1. The preseason means nothing - Marco Belinelli scores 10 points in 19 minutes off the bench, and is a game high +19. I shall never watch preseason basketball ever again.

2. Shaq is bad - Speaking of plus/minus, Shaq was a game-worst -25.

3. Chris Bosh is going to work hard in search of a max paycheck - "D"-ing up, crashing the boards (4 off reb), getting to the line (9-12 FT)... here's the thing though... why do players only do this in their contract year? If he goes on to have a monster 24/12 season and the team wins like 45-50 games, why did he have to wait to turn on his motor full blast? Is it so much to ask to give all you have for $10 million a year?

4. Andrea gave us glimpses of everything - The ability to put the ball on the floor, the ability to shoot the long ball, the ability to screw up something very easy (the missed dunk), the inability to stay out of foul trouble (though I understand, it was Shaq). To me, that's the most important part of Bargnani's game. Everyone should realize nearly every team will start a game by attacking him on the defensive end, hoping to get him in foul trouble. He must learn to defend without fouling.

5. Jay Triano was working hard! - Anyone who watched the game (especially live) would have noticed this, the way the official's horn was buzzing all night. The Raptors used 25 unique lineups. 25! To put that in context, in Atlanta's season opener, their starting five played 22 minutes together, and the team used 15 unique lineups. As I said, the Raps used 25 unique lineups, and their starting lineup played just 11 minutes together. Is this a trend? Was it an aberration? Will it work? Doesn't this particular starting lineup need time to gel? I'll be keeping my eye on this.

Questions... so many questions

And we'll begin to get some answers tonight...

But before I get to those questions, just a quick link to M. Grange's story on the Raptors dabbling in statistical analysis (my question: Who were the young dudes with laptops? Ivy league chumps I'm sure... who've never even watched a full Raptor game!)

ANYWAYS... onto the big Raptor questions for this season (in no particular order):

1. Will Bosh re-sign? - This one will hang around all season long, for obvious reasons. Frankly, I don't care all that much about this answer... I'm more concerned with the next question

2. How much should Bosh get paid? - I've written before about how Bosh has perhaps reached his ceiling as a player (and then I also refuted myself with some other numbers that suggested maybe a statistical leap is still possible)... but read what Bosh is saying himself in another Grange article: "My numbers have plateaued, and the wins have gone down." Does that sound like a player who deserves max money? In the same article, Bryan Colangelo sounds very non-committal about setting aside $130 million for Bosh.

3. Can you be a title contender without paying the luxury tax? - I suspect the answer to this question is "No." But I will have to do some research. FYI, Toronto is not a tax-paying team. The luxury tax (I think) is somewhere around $70 M this season. According to hoopshype.com, 12 teams are above that threshold, including the Lakers, Celtics, Magic, Cavs, & Spurs (in other words, the consensus five top teams in the NBA).

4. Is Jay Triano a legit NBA coach? - This is one of those questions that really can't be answered, but will be answered depending on Toronto's record. If they get off to a good start, he'll be complimented, if they don't, he'll be criticized. Whether or not he actually deserves the criticism/credit is very hard to gauge. Was he Toronto's cheapest option for head coach (remember, they're still playing Smitch), or was he an under-the-radar, rising star of the coaching ranks (remember, he helps out with USA basketball).

5. How much time will Colangelo give this team to gel? - He has a lot of players on one-year contracts (Belinelli, Douby, Johnson, Nesterovic, O'Bryant, Wright). There will be a lot of teams searching for expiring contracts. Will Colangelo go after a slightly overpaid veteran (a Gerald Wallace, Boris Diaw, Jeff Foster, Mike Dunleavy, etc...)?

6. Are the wings good enough? - Turkoglu will help but the 2 spot remains a mystery (read: disaster). Make no mistake about it, the NBA is a perimeter-oriented league. Name the contending teams who don't rely on perimeter/wing play: Orlando, San Antonio, and New Orleans. So you need either the best centre in the game, the greatest power forward ever, or the best point guard in the game (if you want to contend without good wing players). Does Toronto have that type of roster?

7. Will the three-point streak come to an end? - The Raptors have hit a three-pointer in something like 10,000 straight games (approximate). But look at the pre-season stats, the team made just 24% of their three-point attempts. The more important question about that is will there be enough shooters on the floor to give Bosh the room to operate in the low block? This team was built around having shooters (Parker, Kapono) waiting on the wings and in the corners to make teams pay for doubling Bosh. As of now, they haven't replaced that outside shooting.

8. Will Bargnani be on the bench in crunch time? - Reggie Evans and Amir Johnson have both shown a willingness to rebound and play defence in pre-season. If those skills are needed late in a game, does that mean Toronto's $50 million investment will have pine needles in his ass with games on the line?

9a. Is Turkoglu saving himself for the regular season?

9b. Is he tired?

9c. Is he hurt?

9d. Is he overrated?

9e. Is he old?

I have to say I think what makes Raptor fans most nervous is Hedo Turkoglu. Between his performance at the Worlds, and his prescribed rest at the beginning of training camp, fans can't seem to tell what, if anything, is wrong with the team's biggest off-season acquisition. My take: I think he's a "gamer," which is sort of a ridiculous label to put on someone (it's a term based on no real evidence). But it means I think he has trouble putting in effort for stuff he knows doesn't count. I think he's trying to keep everything in perspective, and prepare himself for heavy regular season minutes.

10. Is this a playoff team? - Depends on who you ask. Basketball-reference.com (a Caldeford favourite) pegs the Raptors at 4th in the East. John Hollinger, Basketball-prospectus, ESPN's Chad Ford & Bill Simmons all think the Raptors are lottery-bound. Here's my answer: Who cares? If people are actually questioning whether this is a playoff team, then they're doomed to begin with. Sure the MLSE folks might get happy over a 6th, 7th, or 8th playoff seed (and an inevitable 1st round loss). But the ONLY way this season can be a relative success is if this team makes it to the 2nd round of the playoffs, and the ONLY way that happens is if they get the 4th or 5th seed in the East. Can that happen? Yes, but only if a lot of the questions listed above have some positive answers.

Listen, there's a reason why I haven't been posting so much in the pre-season: It doesn't really provide you with all that much new information (especially when your top two players are out).

Ya, it's fun to realize that Amir Johnson is probably the team's best defender, and it's sad to learn to there was a pretty good reason Don Nelson gave away Marco Belinelli. But in terms of learning valuable information that could predict regular season success... well, there's just not that much there.

WITH THAT BEING SAID, let me list the teams that are currently two games or more below .500 so far this pre-season:

EAST: Charlotte, Toronto, Miami, New Jersey

WEST: Memphis, New Orleans, Oklahoma City, Sacramento, Minnesota

Not exactly a bunch of world-beaters in that group are there. The contrarians to the subtle point I'm making would say that the Raptors are trying to integrate a bunch of new players into a new system, and that would explain the pre-season record. My rebuttal would be that I thought the Raptors were now one of the supposed "deepest" teams in the league with all the moves made by Colangelo in the off-season.

Just as a reference point, let's look as past pre-seasons for these Raptors, and how it's translated into early-season success:

2008-09: 4-4 (3-0 reg. season start... finish 33-49)

2007-08: 5-2 (2-1 reg. season start... finish 41-41)

2006-07: 7-1 (2-8 reg. season start... finish 47-35)

2005-06: 3-4 (1-15 reg. season start... finish 27-55)

So, the last time the Raptors had a losing pre-season record, they finished 27-55 in the regular season, that's all I'm saying (haha, how's that for unnecessary and slightly irrelevant statistics!).

You could look at those numbers any... uhh, number.. of ways. The team had an average pre-season last year but got off to a quick start. But then again, that team finished with an awful record. On the other hand, in 06-07, a fantastic pre-season led to an awful start. However, that team finished with a great record. Does a pre-season have any impact whatsoever on a team's final record? Just on its start? Or none at all?

Personally, I think pre-seasons are for individual assessment. Who's healthy? Who's in shape? Who can defend? Who can rebound? This is how rotations are formed. For example, let's take a stab at pegging down Toronto's "depth chart" as it stands today:

Point Guards: Calderon, Jack, Banks

Wings: Turkoglu, DeRozan, Wright, Weems, Belinelli, Douby

Bigs: Bosh, Bargnani, Evans, Johnson, Nesterovic, O'Bryant

I think before the pre-season, it was a safe bet that Belinelli had a spot in the rotation as a three-point shooter off the bench. However, his turnover-prone, bad shot selection, out of control play in the pre-season probably means he'll start the year on the outside looking in.

I also think most people assumed Rasho Nesterovic would be the 4th big man on this team (behind Bargnani, Bosh, & Evans), however Johnson's play--mostly on the defensive end--has probably pushed him ahead of Nesterovic (if not Evans as well) on the depth chart. And oh ya, Patrick O'Bryant is a stiff.

So looking at that, what have we really learned? Well, Belinelli squandered a great opportunity (with Wright injured) to become the first guard off the bench. If that's the biggest news to come out of pre-season, then it really is some pretty non-eventful stuff.

However, retrospectively maybe some things will end up bigger than they seem now. If Calderon's struggles continue into the regular season... if Turkoglu's endurance & explosiveness are slow to return... if Bosh struggles in the new offence... all these things you could say afterwards were signs that something was amiss.

But I think it's impossible to say, until the games count, that all of those things will continue into the regular season.

A bad prospectus

The folks over at Basketball Prospectus produce an annual book outlining the upcoming season. I've purchased said book, and would like to highlight a few things they have to say about the Raptors (it ain't very pretty).

First, something about I've talked about already: Roster turnover. They've projected each team's minutes played this season, and the Raptors will have the biggest overhaul of the off-season.

LEAST PROJECTED PLAYING TIME, RETURNERS

TOR 43%

MIN 53%

MIL 57 %

DET 59%

MEM 62%

That's scary.

THE DEFENCE RESTS

Another thing that I've already tackled in this space is how Toronto's off-season moves will affect its defence (which was already bad to begin with). Prospectus is projecting Toronto's per-possession defence to be 29th in the NBA this season.

DISTURBING TRENDS

Offensive Rating Rank (last 5 seasons): 10th, 4th, 9th, 9th, 22nd

Defensive Rating Rank (last 5 seasons): 26th, 28th, 12th, 14th, 22nd

BACKHANDED COMPLIMENT OF THE YEAR

"Don't confuse Bargnani's scoring average with a sign of stardom. He has to be extremely good on offense to justify keeping him on the floor because he is so weak in other aspects of the game."

SIMILARITY SCORES

Another great thing they do is come up with similarity scores to determine who players are most comparable to. I find it interesting because it allows you to look at a team a bit more objectively.

Jose Calderon - Mark Jackson

DeMar DeRozan - Mike Miller (as a rookie)

Hedo Turkoglu - Steve Smith

Chris Bosh - Vin Baker

Andrea Bargnani - Charlie Villanueva

So, do you think a starting five of Mark Jackson, Mike Miller, Steve Smith, Vin Baker, and Charlie Villanueva would make any kind of impact? Neither do I.

BIG PICTURE

Basketball Prospectus doesn't foresee big things for the Raptors this season. I won't say more than that (I've already given away enough), but I'm starting to get a bit worried that two places I go to very often for basketball knowledge (prospectus and John Hollinger's site) both are predicting a bad year for the Raptors.