Decade Ending Stuff

I work for That's Hockey at TSN (ironic I know, given that I write a basketball blog... is it ironic? or just coincidental?)... and we've been doing a bunch of decade-ending stuff for the show of late. Top 10 plays, moments, players, etc... The one thing we haven't really touched on is the top team of the decade, because really, there's no discussion. The best franchise in the NHL since 2000 is the Detroit Red Wings. However, the NBA is a different case. I think there are two obvious contenders, the Spurs and the Lakers. Let's consider a few things:

First, championships. The Lakers have won four titles, the Spurs three. This would seem to give the edge to the Lakers. But, when looking at an entire decade, it's important to take note of what I like to call "sustained excellence." Who was the best and most consistent, year in and year out?

REGULAR SEASON WINNING PERCENTAGE

Games played from Jan. 1, 2000 thru Dec. 29, 2009

1. SAS 573 - 245 (.700)

2. DAL 561 - 260 (.682)

3. LAL 529 - 291 (.645)

4. DET 493 - 329 (.600)

5. PHX 493 - 330 (.599)

22. TOR 370 - 453 (.449)

I thought I would throw in the Raptors there just for fun.... can you imagine how much more enjoyable it's been over the course of the last 10 years to be a Spurs fan? 203 more regular season wins, countless more playoff wins, and 3 titles... I'm so envious.

Anyways, that's pretty impressive stuff. A .700 win percentage is pretty amazing over the course of a few months, let alone 10 years! This would seem to sway the argument in San Antonio's favour.

However, the defining statistic revealed itself when I looked at the Finals from each year:

MULTIPLE FINALS APPEARANCES

THIS DECADE

LAL 6

SAS 3

DET 2

NJ 2

The Lakers made six trips to the Finals!

STAT OF THE DECADE

Here's the big question: Why has anyone put any money on any team in the Western Conference other than the Spurs or Lakers to make it to the Finals? Like at all this decade? From 1999 to 2009, the Lakers and Spurs have accounted for 10 trips to the finals, and 8 championships.

I will be flabbergasted by that note until at least the end of this decade.

Anyways, to send you off, I'll leave you with some individual stat leaders since the start of the 2000-01 season. Enjoy!

STATISTICAL LEADERS

SINCE START OF 2000-01 SEASON

GAMES: Andre Miller, 766

MINUTES: Kobe Bryant, 28101

POINTS: Kobe Bryant, 20477

REBOUNDS: Kevin Garnett, 8553

OFF. REBOUNDS: Ben Wallace, 2628

ASSISTS: Steve Nash, 6974

STEALS: Jason Kidd, 1393

BLOCKS: Ben Wallace, 1675

3PT FG: Ray Allen, 1853

PERCENTAGES

FG%: Shaquille O'Neal, .585

3PT%: Jason Kapono, .450

FT%: Reggie Miller, .915

ADVANCED STATS STUFF

PER: Lebron James, 26.4

TS%: Brent Barry, .629

OFF REB%: Jeff Foster, 15.0%

DEF REB%: Marcus Camby, 30.2%

TOT REB%: Reggie Evans, 20.8%

Off. Rating: Chris Paul, 121

Def. Rating: David Robinson & Ben Wallace, 94

Perspective

The Raptors have won 4 straight games. They are also 8-4 since starting the season 7-13. This has caused some to propose drastic personnel maneuvers involving one of Toronto's franchise players.

I'm speaking of Jose Calderon. Toronto's improved play has led to many people saying Jarrett Jack should continue to start at point guard even when Calderon returns. Here is my response to this suggestion:

No.

Consider: During this 8-4 stretch, the Raptors have played four teams with a winning record. They are 1-3 against those teams. The three losses were by a combined 61 points. In those 4 games against quality competition, Jack averaged 12 points and 4 assists per game, and was a combined -14.

So what exactly is the rush to alienate a player under contract for multiple seasons at big dollars? Is Jose Calderon playing at his best this season? No. Should the Raptors have expected him to be at his best after forcing him to sit out of international action all off-season? No.

Here are Toronto's wins during this stretch: Washington, Chicago, Minnesota, Houston, New Jersey, New Orleans, and Detroit (twice). This team has yet to beat a team with a winning record on the road this season.

What is everything I've just said above? Context.

If I were strictly a numbers guy (as many of you probably think I am), then technically, I should be all for this Jack as the starting point guard movement. Jack is a +57 at the point this year, Calderon is a -93 (giving a net difference between the two of 150 points). I don't think the easy schedule explains away all of that net difference... however, there are other factors (injuries, rust, etc...). And given the contract situation, and just the fact that Calderon is a better player, I think you need to stay the course with your original starter.

THE ENIGMA THAT IS SONNY WEEMS

He can't shoot. His handle doesn't even look that nice. He can D up reasonably well. Somehow that all adds up to a great performance. During this winning streak (and yes, all those caveats about Jack apply here as well), Weems has been a plus in each game... leading to a combined plus/minus of +54 (3rd on the team during that time, and best among reserves).

His game is admittedly tough to figure out. It's hard to understand how someone that is obviously athletic, has a fairly high basketball IQ, and has decent touch (as evidenced by his alley-oop passes) can't seem to hit a 15-foot jumper consistently.

STAT OF THE DAY

(courtesy of 82games.com)

Back to my point about the Raptors really not showing much during these winning times. Toronto has played 32 games this season.

Here is how their record breaks down when you separate their opponents by net points (for-against):

vs Top 10 teams: 1-11

vs 11th-20th teams: 2-5

vs 21st-30th teams: 11-1

So, the Raptors are 3-16 against the top 20 teams in the NBA, but they're dominating the really crappy teams...... YAY!!!!

FYI: Toronto's next 6 games:

vs Charlotte

at Boston

vs San Antonio

at Orlando

at Philly

vs Boston

Absolute best case is 3-3. More likely to be 2-4 or 1-5... giving the team a 17-21 record nearly halfway through the season.

And they're going to alienate their point guard over that!

Gimme Some More cont'd

A player has averaged a 24 points and 12 rebounds in a season 92 times in NBA history. We're talking Wilt Chamberlain, Oscar Robertson, Kareem, Karl Malone... all-time greats here.

Couple things:

• Bosh ranks dead last in terms of minutes played when you look at all those players
• Only 7 of those players took fewer shots per game than Bosh

EURO-BOSH

Don't believe Bosh plays a European style of basketball? Consider the list of players who have averaged 24 points per game and fewer than 2 turnovers in a game in a season since the start of this decade:

Dirk Nowitzki (3 times)

Peja Stojakovic (03-04)

Got a European flavour, doesn't it.

In fact, Bosh could become just the fifth player in NBA history to average more than 24 PPG, and fewer than 2 turnovers per game (Kiki Vandeweghe and Jeff Malone have also accomplished the feat).

Gimme Some More (Bosh)...

Chris Bosh is averaging over 24 points and 12 rebounds per game right now. If he were to finish the season above those two thresholds, he would become just the 12th player over the last 20 years to do so.

And here lies the problem.

If you look at the numbers of those 12 players, particularly minutes played, here is the story they tell:

Tim Duncan (01-02) 40.6 *

Shaquille O'Neal (99-00) 40.0 *

Shaquille O'Neal (93-94) 39.8

Shaquille O'Neal (00-01) 39.5

Hakeem Olajuwon (92-93) 39.5

Kevin Garnett (03-04) 39.4 *

Shaquille O'Neal (96-97) 38.1

David Robinson (90-91) 37.7

Charles Barkley (92-93) 37.6 *

Patrick Ewing (92-93) 37.1

David Robinson (95-96) 36.8

Chris Bosh (09-10) 34.7

* denotes MVP season

Pretty good company Bosh finds himself in... 7 players all either current or future hall of famers...

BUT.... why is Bosh getting so little run compared to these players. Only Shaq in 93-94 and 96-97 was younger than Bosh is now. So why are all these players getting at least two minutes per game more than Bosh?

Granted, I think Bosh is the only one of these players to consistently wear a knee brace, but I digress.

Here's the big point: If this guy is gone for good at the end of the season, then maximize the return on your investment. He should be playing a MINIMUM of 38 minutes per game... no questions asked.

STAT OF THE DAY

No player in the history of the NBA has ever had a season averaging over 24 points and 12 rebounds per game, and fewer than 2 turnovers per game (Bosh is averaging 1.8 turnovers per game so far this season).

STAT OF THE DAY #2

Bosh could become the only player from that original group to have his team miss the playoffs.

John Hollinger rips Triano

From his PER Diem:

OK, we need to stop mincing words and call this what it is: Jay Triano is in over his head, and if the Raptors don't do something about it, it will cost them their best player this summer. The 146 points Wednesday night by Atlanta was the latest ridiculous example of Toronto's defensive ineptitude, and while the roster composed by Bryan Colangelo is far from ideal in this respect, this should not be the worst defensive team in history. Right now it is.

Getting defensive effort from players is one of the basic measuring sticks for an NBA coach, and Triano has failed miserably in this respect. The carping in the locker room following Wednesday's defeat spoke volumes -- players were basically begging the coaching staff to go through the film and go over the mistakes so they could correct them. Which makes one wonder what on earth the Raps were doing for the first quarter of the season while opponents conducted layup drills at their expense.

There's an added urgency for the Raps because of Chris Bosh's impending free agency -- if the Raptors can't show substantial improvement, he's probably gone after the season. And it appears there's no chance of Toronto showing that kind of progress under Triano. It would be a desperation move to change conductors at the 20-game mark, but I'm not sure the Raptors' situation gives them much of a choice.

Dissecting a Disaster

From Dave Feschuk's article yesterday: "...more than one veteran voice said Triano is failing to call out the players who are making the most egregious defensive mistakes.

"Every time something happens it's always, `It's okay, it's all right.' It's not all right," said Jarrett Jack..."Problems go by without attacking them or challenging them or bringing them to the forefront and getting them solved. We can't keep keep putting them to the back of the bus and just saying, `That's okay.' It's not all right. Everybody can't walk on eggshells around here and say, `We're playing good basketball.' We're not."

Said Antoine Wright: "You've got to address (the defensive issues) and you've got to show people on tape. It's not personal. If you want to win, you're going to have to make some sacrifices."

Wright said Triano has failed to "call out" under-performing Raptors because unnamed teammates are "too sensitive" to criticism.

From Mr. Feschuk's article today: Sam Mitchell on who he was hard on: "People don't understand how relentless I was on Jose and Chris. I cut 'em no slack... Andrea it was different. I cut Andrea a lot of slack."

READING BETWEEN THE LINES

Mr. Feschuk is an intelligent writer. He knows there are certain things he can and cannot write in the paper. Jarrett Jack and Antoine Wright are both intelligent (if not exactly in-shape) basketball players. They know they can't call out specific players in the papers.

However, if you read between the lines of Mr. Feschuk's columns over the last two days, I think you'll see that he's saying the Raptors are growing frustrated about how Andrea Bargnani is treated by this organization.

You even get the sense from the Mitchell quote that he didn't even want to cut Bargnani that much slack, that it was almost an organizational mandate to do so.

MY OWN OBSERVATION

As I mentioned earlier this week, I was at the Suns game on Sunday. On two separate occasions, Bargnani just totally forgot to rotate on defence (I'm sure he forgot to rotate many more times than that, but I'm just pointing these two out for a specific reason). After his gaffe led to dunks for the Suns, a visibly frustrated Hedo Turkoglu threw his hands in the air and said/yelled something in the direction of Bargnani. The Italian was naturally oblivious to Turkoglu's criticism, and merely continued up the court, happily mouth-breathing away.

"DO SOMETHING..."

That was the plea from Chris Bosh to his coaches (said thru the media) after the loss in Atlanta.

Luckily, I'm here to provide the answers for Bosh, here is a five-point plan to make this team better:

1. Belinelli for DeRozan in the starting five - Talked about in my previous post.

2. Johnson for Bargnani in the starting five - I didn't agree with this move earlier this week, however, I didn't realize how much this team doesn't respect Bargnani's work ethic. This is a move made to keep this team together, not necessarily one that makes sense on paper.

3. Abandon the idea that Jack is a combo-guard - Jack is a +3 as point guard, a -48 as a shooting guard. It doesn't get any simpler than that. The Calderon-Jack backcourt has been about as successful as the Caldeford pairing of years past.

4. Cut Turkoglu's minutes until he gets in better shape - He's out of shape. I think that's obvious to anyone who watches this team play on a consistent basis. However, the solution to this problem is almost a catch-22. Do you play him to get him in shape (and thus, reward him for bad behaviour)? Or do you sit him to punish him for being out of shape (and thus, potentially only make the problem worse)? I think you have to sit him down, and say, we need you to be quicker and stronger out there. We need you to be our leader on the floor, and you can't do that in the shape you're in right now. Until you're in that kind of shape, then you're going to be a 24 minute per night guy. I think, at that point, Turkoglu's pride will take over, and you'll see him wake up.

5. Maximize Antoine Wright's minutes - He's been awful this year, no question. But they've misused him and put him in the wrong lineups. Simply put, you cannot have him out there with DeRozan as the shooting guard. Wright should only be on the floor when Belinelli is out there as a shooter. That way, he'll know what his role is when he's out there. Be scrappy, go for loose balls, attack the basket, and defend. If the Raptors trot out a unit with DeRozan and Wright out on the floor, Wright's saying, I'm more ready to contribute than this kid, give me the ball! The numbers agree with me on this:

STAT OF THE DAY ALERT!

DeRozan & Wright have played almost an entire 48-minute game on the court together this season, and the Raptors have been outscored by 43 points in that time!

FIVE POINT PLAN - REVIEW

Let's review my changes, and see what it would give us as a new overall picture for this team (with avg minutes played in parentheses)

Starting Five: Calderon (30), Belinelli (33), Turkoglu (24), Bosh (38), Johnson (28)

Backup PG: Jack (18)

Backup SG: DeRozan (15)

Backup SF: Wright (24)

Backup big: Bargnani (30)

That, to me, is a tightly knit, better defined rotation. Everyone will have a better idea of the role they will play. The team will get the sense that Bargnani is being punished for bad defensive play (even though he'll still play 30 minutes per game). And we'll never have to see the Calderon-Jack backcourt ever again.

STAT OF THE DAY DOUBLE-DIP SURPRISE SPECIAL

When Calderon & Jack are on the court together this season, the Raptors are a -50.

The Defence Rests....

Should be the slogan for this year's Raptors.

Went to the Suns game on Sunday, and I was amazed at how bad the Raptors defence is in person. Granted, Phoenix is a great offensive team, but Toronto's defenders are just, well, beyond description.

Their key strategy of the day was to switch on every high pick & roll, trusting that Andrea Bargnani could contain Steve Nash one-on-one. Apparently, help defence from whoever was covering Grant Hill in the corner was out of the question.

My favourite part of the various game recaps was the part where they said Bargnani and the Raptors defence actually did a decent job on "containing Nash." This is where the Raptors now find themselves: Allowing 113 points overall, while allowing the point guard to rack up 20 points and 16 assists is classified as "containing" the aforementioned point guard. I will now set fire to the remaining Raptors tickets sitting on my dresser.

THE REGGIE EVANS MYTH

This awful defence has led to a steady stream of "this will change when Reggie Evans finally plays" lines from fans and media alike. Let me reply:

WRONG!

There are two ways I respond to this:

1. What do you really expect Reggie Evans to do?

Last season, he had a net PER of -10.4. When he was on the court, the 76ers were outscored by 3 points per 48 minutes. When he was off the court, the 76ers outscored their opponents by 1 point per game.

So, essentially, the Sixers were a better team without Evans on the floor.

2. How much can one player affect a whole team's defence when he's playing just 30% of the game?

Over his entire career, Reggie Evans has averaged about 20 minutes per game. With Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani firmly entrenched in their starting roles in Toronto, that leaves about 27 minutes of front court time to the rest of Toronto's bigs (Evans, Johnson, & Nesterovic).

So, unless they completely sit down Amir Johnson when Evans returns (I doubt that will happen), Evans is looking at between 12-20 minutes per game.

Really, how much could one player affect a team's defence even when he's playing 80 or 90% of the game, let alone 30%? At the end of the day, each of Toronto's five starters is a below-average defensive player. Nothing will change that, meaning nothing (not even the presence of Reggie Evans) will change the fact that the Raptors are the worst defensive team in basketball.

WON-LOST PROFILES (& MY STAT OF THE DAY)

This is my stat of the day. It's tracked by 82games.com, and it's an individual won-lost record based on whether your team outscored the opposition in a given game when you were on the court.

Here is the list of players on the Toronto Raptors with a winning individual won-lost record:

Hedo Turkoglu 9-6

That is all.

OBSERVATION OF THE DAY (a new feature!)

Have you ever noticed Andrea Bargnani is faster on the offensive end than he is on the defensive end?

This is my first rebuttal whenever anyone disputes that defensive performance isn't effort-based.

FIX OF THE DAY

It's time to end the DeMar DeRozan as a starter experience. The Raptors get outscored by 7 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor (and he pretty much exclusively plays with Toronto's best players). What does this mean? Well, it means Toronto is always having to dig out of a first quarter & third quarter hole. It means they're always playing from behind, which is actually very tough to do mentally.

And again, if you're following the logic that nothing will change the fact that Toronto is a bad defensive team (in case you haven't noticed, I'm firmly in this camp), then you should do everything you can to just maximize Toronto's offensive capability.

If that's the case, there's only one move to make: Put Belinelli in the starting lineup.

The Raptors average 115.86 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor (tops on the team), and he's one of just four players on the team with a plus/minus greater than zero for the season (Bosh, Turkoglu, and Bargnani being the other three).

And if you want to keep it really simple, that lineup (Calderon, Belinelli, Turkoglu, Bosh, Bargnani) has been Toronto's best this season in terms of offensive efficiency and net efficiency. Therefore, it follows that you should probably put your best lineup out on the floor as much as possible.