The Bargnani Factor: Appendices

"Over the past month we have watched Bargnani evolve into a more complete player. While his ability to make shots from 24 feet remains, it is his willingness to put the ball on the floor and drive to the basket with a proficiency rarely seen in big men, which has dramatically changed his effectiveness." – Bob McCown, "The Bargnani Factor", January 28, 2010

This is an excerpt from Bob McCown's blog over at Fadoo.ca. The topic (Andrea Bargnani's development) is certainly timely and appropriate, given how Il Mago has played this season (last night notwithstanding). However, there are a few additional points to the above paragraph that I think help tell the full story about Bargnani's change in play:

First, Bargnani's most valuable attribute is clearly his offensive play. However, he is also averaging career highs in offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds, total rebounds (obviously), and blocks. So, he's stepping up his play in all areas.

Secondly, Bargnani's evolution into Toronto's key secondary scorer actually began last season, not just over the past month, or even just over this season. Take a look at his pre/post all-star game splits:

Next, Bob is definitely accurate when he mentions Bargnani's newfound willingness to drive to the basket. Much like his overall numbers, it was a trend that began last season and has peaked this campaign. Take a look at Bargnani's shots from 10 feet and in (data provided by hoopdata.com

Finally, the biggest change in Bargnani's play this season that I've noticed using naked-eye observation is his mid-range game. His ability to fake a three-point shot, put the ball on the floor, and pick up his dribble to hit a 15-footer before reaching the awaiting defence is something I've never seen before (from him at least). Do the numbers back me up? Luckily, hoopdata allows us to look at shots from 10-15 feet away:

It's a dramatic change in style just over the course of a few seasons. He's taking twice as many mid-range jumpers than just two seasons ago! There are two notes that expand on this data. First, let's just collectively sum up his first three seasons and compare it to this season:

He's taking 56% more mid-range shots this season than his previous three seasons, and he's making them much more often. And secondly, Bargnani's 54% accuracy from this range is actually tops among NBA centres who take at least one attempt per game.

So, in summation, Bargnani began to improve last season, and this evolution has turned him into one of the most well-rounded offensive frontcourt players in the NBA.

Many NBA pundits have written that Chris Bosh could actually be a better player if he's a complementary scorer playing alongside a more offensive-minded star. They say that this could be a key determining factor when/if Bosh chooses a new team in July. But perhaps he's had a offensive-minded star alongside him in Toronto all along, it's just taken a few years for that scorer to reveal himself.