ANYWAYS... I was reading Mr. Grange's post about yesterday's game, and came across the following message, which I will post in its entirety, because it's that good:
Has anyone considered that with Hedo contributing the Raptors have one of the best offenses in the NBA? Does anyone notice how guys playing alongside him like Andrea B. are having career years? Hedo's passing and ball handling are a great addition.
Just Toronto sports media only know how to read stat lines, well here's a stat, this teams' great record comes with Hedo playing heavy minutes consistently, the fact that his stat sheet doesn't glow with 20-point performances doesn't mean he's having a bad year. The Raptors recent win-loss record and exceptional offense prove to me he is making a solid contribution.
WTomlin76 wrote: Personally I don't buy the argument that Turkoglu has had a bad season. In Orlando he wasn't a dominant scorer, he was a ball-handler and distributor who would take the big shots when needed. Orlando trusted Hedo to facilitate their offense, and as Charles Barkley said about the Magic this season "they miss Turkoglu."
To me, this is about the stat culture that ruins Toronto basketball discussions. Reporters, who often don't even watch the games, just let the stat line do their thinking for them. The reality is that whenever the ball was in Hedo's hands against the Lakers last night, good stuff happened. Whether it was knowing when to shoot or when to pass, Hedo usually made the right decision. And a lot of his passes were to wide open hot shooters like Jack and Andrea B.
Has anyone considered that with Hedo contributing the Raptors have one of the best offenses in the NBA? Does anyone notice how guys playing alongside him like Andrea B. are having career years? Hedo's passing and ball handling are a great addition.
Just Toronto sports media only know how to read stat lines, well here's a stat, this teams' great record comes with Hedo playing heavy minutes consistently, the fact that his stat sheet doesn't glow with 20-point performances doesn't mean he's having a bad year. The Raptors recent win-loss record and exceptional offense prove to me he is making a solid contribution.
His message echoes a lot of things I said when I first started writing this blog. Yes, it's a statistics-based blog, but I always was dismayed by the way Toronto writers used the "front page stats" (pts, reb, ast) to formulate their storylines. And I know I have been "ripping" Turkoglu a bit of late, however, you'll notice that my observations have been how his performance has changed compared to prior years. And the performances I have been tracking are his "hustle" stats, not his front page stats.
To further the earlier point about Hedo, I'll pass along a great message via Twitter from "Steeebo":
"Hedo averaging 12.5 / 4.5 / 4.5 this yr & his career avgs are 12.3 / 4.2 / 2.8 so basically Hedo IS WHAT WE THOUGHT HE IS."
See, that's a way of using those front page stats effectively (i.e. In a way that the mainstream media is not).
Here's one more way of using the mainstream stats to tell a different story about Turkoglu: Those seasonal averages of 12.5 / 4.5 / 4.5... here's the list of players in the NBA averaging at least those amounts in all three categories:
Lebron James
Kobe Bryant
Dwyane Wade
Brandon Roy
Joe Johnson
Tyreke Evans
Chris Paul
Andre Iguodala
Russell Westbrook
Hedo Turkoglu
That's not a bad list, and all of this talk reminds of a favourite line, courtesy of Homer Simpson: "People can come up with statistics to prove anything. 40% of all people know that."
5 comments:
My favorite Turkoglu stat is from 82games: his Per is 15.8 (hardly mindblowing, albeit above average). However, his cover has a Per of 12.7.
That's pretty impressive.
The post had me up until this line:
"this teams' great record comes with Hedo playing heavy minutes consistently, the fact that his stat sheet doesn't glow with 20-point performances doesn't mean he's having a bad year. The Raptors recent win-loss record and exceptional offense prove to me he is making a solid contribution."
Every player on the team could have the same thing said about them regarding the team's recent win-loss record. But to go as far as to say that this team has a "great record" when they are floating around .500 makes me think that this guy is a leafs fan that dropped by to admire that great record.
While the Raps are the 5th highest scoring team in the league, they are also the 5th most scored upon team. If Hedo is to get credit for the former, he then deserves blame for the latter.
While I love to analyze the stats, I also let what I see on the court dictate my decisions as much as the stats. What I see is a player that refuses to play inside (only 21% of his shots are inside shots), when he does shoot from the outside, it is not effective (.401 shooting percentage ranks 138th among forwards, would be even worse if you removed his 21% of inside shots) and on defence is not a factor at all.
Now let's be fair, there are very few "defenders" on this team and Hedo is just 1 of many bad defenders on this team, but I have at least seen some improvement (effort) in some of the other poor defenders, Bargnani to name one.
Hedo himself has stated the obvious, that he is not playing well. This is backed up by watching the games or by looking at the stats. He knows it, you know it and I know it. To try to defend him is just being selective in what stats you use or trying to blame the messenger who only uses the "headline stats". Sometimes the stats lie, but sometimes, just sometimes they do tell the truth.
Que fingers being pointed at Calderon.
If your BC and HAD to trade someone, who would it be?
I'm betting Calderon gets the most votes, he slides out of this line up easier than anyone else of signifigance...
Well, wherever he shoots from, Turkoglu went to the rack at the right time on Sunday! Jay Triano said today that over the past 26 games, the Raptors are among the top 10 defensive teams in the NBA. I imagine this is true, but the real stat is that they are 16-10 over this span. In January, they have beaten San Antonio, Orlando, Dallas, and LA, 4 teams with a combined 116-60 record, and they also won their first back-to-back game of the season. What people miss is that this team has shown constant improvement, and even if they flatline right now, they will still win 46 games this year. It also demonstrates that this is a team sport, and we can talk about individual players all we want, but it is how they play together that wins games, and that is the only stat that counts!
I saw this in another blog
3. I Underrated Hedo Turkoglu
When Orlando let Turkoglu walk as a free agent, replacing him with Carter, I thought it was the right move. Now I'm not so sure, and not just because of the preceding paragraphs. Turkoglu has never rated particularly well by my numbers or most others. Both his per-minute win percentage and PER evaluated him as essentially an average player this season. But the success the Toronto offense has enjoyed since adding Turkoglu, ranking fourth in the league, has made me rethink his value.
In paying tribute to Steve Nash earlier this season, I referenced hoopnumbers.com's breakdown of adjusted plus-minus into the Four Factors at both ends of the floor. Of the top 13 players in adjusted impact on their team's effective field-goal percentage, 11 were All-Stars last year. The 12th is Deron Williams, and I think it's safe to say he belongs in the All-Star category despite the fact that a logjam of point guards in the West has kept him from actually making the team. The last player? Turkoglu, who ranked seventh by increasing his team's eFG% by 1.34 percent while on the floor over the last three seasons when accounting for the quality of his teammates.
What I'm starting to suspect is there is something about how Turkoglu helps an offense that is not picked up by his individual stats. Whether it is because of his versatility, or his ability to run the pick-and-roll, he makes his teammates more efficient without generating a ton of assists or scoring all that efficiently (or that often) himself.
Now, that still doesn't mean letting Turkoglu go was a terrible move. The five-year contract he got from the Toronto Raptors will take him through age 35 and could get ugly on the back end. Also, Carter ranks 16th on the same list of adjusted eFG%, so Orlando should be deriving a similar benefit from his presence. Still, there is some statistical evidence to explain why the Magic would miss Turkoglu.
Follow Kevin on Twitter at @kpelton.
Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.
Post a Comment