Anyways, the other day, Mr. Grange wrote about Andrea Bargnani's struggles in back-to-back games. This is a useful stat. Useful in that it confirms some qualitative analysis (Bargnani is not in as good of shape as he could be)... Even better, Mr. Grange wrote about those struggles BEFORE Bargnani played the second half of a back-to-back, and Bargnani followed the script almost perfectly (6-for-17 shooting from the field).
Quick Stat of the Day: I say "almost perfectly" because Il Mago still swatted away four New Jersey shot attempts. It was only the 11th time in his career he's had at least four blocked shots in a game (and just the second time this season). Most encouraging: In both instances this season, Bargnani had his "block party" so to speak in games when he wasn't shooting very well. In other words, perhaps he was looking to impact the game or help the team win in any way possible... not just the way he usually does it (making shots).
Anyways, Mr. Grange's post led me to a question: Do any other Raptors have statistical trends that show they struggle with or without rest between games? Let's check it out:
- Chris Bosh shoots in the high 50s with 2 or more days rest, he shoots at around 48% on the second night of a back-to-back (48% is still good... high 50s is crazy)
- Hedo Turkoglu's points, rebounds, and assists averages are all lower on 0 days rest compared to his seasonal average
- Jarrett Jack shoots 40% from the field with no rest, and around 50% with 1 or more days rest
- DeMar DeRozan shoots 42% from the field with no rest, and around 50% with 1 or more days rest
- Antoine Wright's best games have come with no rest
- Weird trend of the day: Jose Calderon shoots 94% from the line on 0 days rest, 80% on 1 day, 67% on 2+ days .... Amir Johnson shoots 82% from the line with no rest, and about 50% on 1+ days rest .... why are these guys better from the line with no rest?... (this is when you call chime in: small sample size)
Anyways, is there an underlying trend, a point I'm trying to make? Well, I don't think anyone would say Chris Bosh or Jarrett Jack or DeMar DeRozan is "out of shape," despite their shooting variances. I guess my point is, sometimes it's easy to find a stat that confirms an opinion you hold of someone (i.e. Andrea Bargnani is out of shape)... but does that stat always tell the whole story?
6 comments:
Actually it makes sense that guys shoot better from the line on back to backs because they are more in a rhythm from (supposedly) doing it more often and more recently in an actual game situation....especially someone like Amir who struggles from the line. The more he does it, and the more frequently he does it in a game, the more comfortable he'll be.
Might one argue that Antoine's Wright's best games come on no rest, because he gets more minutes during the second day of back-to-backs, presumably because the main rotation is more tired? This presumes he plays better with more time, but I think that's probably true of most players. Do other players who sit (or used to sit) lower in the rotation also do better on no rest (ie. Rasho, Marcus Banks, Bellinelli)?
re: effectiveness in back-to-backs
In the NBA environment, "WHO" it is you actually get a chance to play against is, at least, as important as "WHEN" you actually get to play, if not even moreso.
Unless you also correlate who the exact opponent is ... from a "qualitative" standpoint ... with the specific time-frame that a game takes place, it's not sound to place importance on statistical differences which exist between 1 days' rest, 2 days' rest, 3 days' rest, etc., performances in the NBA.
I know the Raptor's record in back to back games is dismal, and I have often thought that it may be due to a lack of conditioning.
You should compare Bargnani's shooting percentage to other starting centres that put up similar numbers, however, before you say that he is out of shape. A sample size of 1 is not valid!
I guess that shoots down your theory that Antoine Wright is out of shape (see AN INSIDE JOB, Jan 19/2010).
ok, watching the game, third quarter vs. Kings, and Derozan is a waste of space on the floor. initiates nothing. stops the ball movement. etc. you're totally right. plus, bargnani needs to learn to rebound on the defensive end.
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