The Olympics were a once-in-a-lifetime experience, and a once-in-a-lifetime workload. I'm exhausted, and honestly, I wasn't very interested in what the Raptors were doing during the Games.
Quick aside: To those "hardcore" hoops writers that thought it gave them cred that they were more interested in a Golden State-L.A. game than a home-country Olympics... get some perspective. First, it doesn't make your writing or your insight any better. Second, it's just stupid.
Now, to the Raptors. I don't think anyone should be surprised by this stretch of play. If anything, I think the Bosh injury will be a detriment to the (numerous) delusional Raptor fans. They'll use the injury as an excuse for these losses, when in reality, the team probably would have lost most of these games regardless. Here's the cold hard truth:
1. The Raptors aren't as bad as their 11-17 start.
2. The Raptors aren't as good as the 18-6 stretch that followed.
The common denominator between those two points is the schedule. In the early part of the season, the Raptors had a very hard schedule. In the middle portion of the year, they had a very easy schedule. It really is as simple as that.
You can give the Raptors credit for beating teams they're supposed to beat. Toronto is 20-5 against teams with losing records...
STAT OF THE DAY: Only the Bucks (21-7) and Lakers (24-4) have more wins against losing teams this season.
But the flip side to that equation is Toronto's record against good teams. They have just 11 wins against winning teams this season.
FLIP SIDE STAT OF THE DAY: Toronto (11-23) ranks 22nd in the NBA in wins against winning teams.
OUTLOOK
Looking at Toronto's stretch run in this context, they have 23 games remaining, 11 against losing teams, and 12 against winning teams. Assuming their season-long winning percentages against losing & winning teams stays relatively consistent, that would suggest a 43-39 year-end record for the Raptors.
MY TAKE
That model is assuming the Raptors continue to shred losing teams at an 80% clip, while also going 4-8 in the following games:
@ LAKERS
@ BLAZERS
HAWKS
THUNDER
JAZZ
NUGGETS
@ HEAT
@ BOBCATS
@ CAVALIERS
CELTICS
@ HAWKS
BULLS
Not be Dennis Downer, but I don't see four wins coming out of that.
My prediction: Toronto goes on a season-ending downturn (aggravated by Chris Bosh, Hedo Turkoglu, and Jose Calderon's struggles with staying healthy), ending with a 41-41 or 40-42 record.
4 comments:
don't agree totally with the season ending slide.
the bobcats, heat, and bulls can be wins. then there's the jazz or a steal (or 2) somewhere along the way.
4-8 sounds just about right, actually.
Hi, Chris.
Back on January 4th and 6th of this year, statistical projections which I posted on my site indicated that the Raptors were likely going to finish this season with a W-L record of 40-42, 41-41, or 42-40.
2 months later ... it still looks this way.
As you and I have both said for a long time now there really hasn't been very much tangible improvement from this team during the 4 full years since Bryan Colangelo assumed full control of the team.
Yr 1, 2005-2006, 47-35
Yr 2, 2006-2007, 41-41
Yr 3, 2007-2008, 33-49
Yr 4, 2009-2010, 40-42/41-41/42-40
If Chris Bosh walks away at the end of this season, there should really be very little cause for optimism going forward in Raptorville.
Debbie Downer
Hi, Chris.
Read what you had to say about Joe Jaso on the CUBDL.
Kudos!
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