Comparison #1: When Player A has been on the floor this season, his team has outscored their opposition by 7 points. When Player B has been on the floor, they've been outscored by 108 points. Who has the edge?
Comparison #2: If you only counted the score when Player A was on the floor in each game, his team's record would be 28-25. If you only counted the score when Player B was on the floor in each game, the team's record would be 28-38. Who has the edge?
Comparison #3: Player A has turned the ball over 82 times as a result of a bad pass or bad ballhandling. Player B has turned it over 127 times using the same criteria. Who has the edge?
Comparison #4: Player A & Player B have both played over 300 minutes with the same set of four other players. Player A is +6 with those players, Player B is -91. Who has the edge?
Comparison #5: Offensively, the team is 4 points per 100 possessions better when Player A is on the floor. The team is 0.6 points per 100 possessions better when Player B is on the floor. Who has the edge?
Comparison #6: Defensively, the team is 2 points per 100 possessions better when Player A is on the bench. The team is 3 points per 100 possessions better when Player B is on the bench. Who has the edge?
Comparison #7: The team grabs 49% of all available rebounds when Player A is on the floor. The team grabs 48.7% of all available rebounds when Player B is on the floor. Who has the edge?
SUMMARY
I want to post a message left by a reader (edited for length purposes):
Read your blog a bunch. Disagree with you a lot. But still read....
I do not think I have ever seen you use a numbers based argument (other than small sample size 5 man units or defensive ratings / offensive ratings of those sample sizes) to prove Calderon is better (than Jarrett Jack).
The whole sense I got from reading this guy's message was that he probably rips my blog on whatever message board people would thereotically talk about my blog (I highly doubt these so-called message boards exist, but if they did, I suspect he would rip me on them). But he tried to be civil while also ripping me since you know, he was writing on my website.
So anyways, that was the motivation for this quick little summation of everything I've been saying all season long about the Calderon/Jack debate. Or essentially, how it's not even a debate at all (I think you can guess the identities of Player A and Player B).
Calderon dominates in overall plus/minus and offensive metrics, and he even comes out (just slightly) ahead in areas you think Jack should dominate (defensive numbers and rebounding).
Listen, that doesn't mean I'm suggesting Calderon is a better defender or rebounder than Jack. BUT, if Jack were THAT much better of a defender or rebounder than Calderon, you would expect to see the numbers back him up.
So if Jack's presence on the floor isn't having a tangible impact defensively or on the glass, then it's no contest who the better point guard is, because Calderon's presence on the floor has a huge impact offensively.
I hope this clears everything up. You may resume ripping me on your message boards (if said message boards happen to exist).
8 comments:
Well glad to inspire a post.
Thanks for putting your argument finally into numbers.
Long time reader, first time commenting.
The Raptors have had long standing issues with rebounding on both ends of the floor.
Watching the game against Denver, (Jack?) brought up that they are so confident in getting a defensive rebound from their bigs, they will often have at least one wing up the floor for a leak out.
This leads to my question:
1) Is there a correlation between defensive rebounding and fast break ?
2) On the opposite end of the floor, are offensive rebounds and fast breaks given to the other team related?
The big caveat might be steals/turnovers, but could this explain why the Raptors, who are often terrible in transition defence, forgo crashing the offensive glass?
Do other teams face the same problem? Or are they just lazy?
I still think you rely way too much on plus minus numbers and such however.
Also I think your turnover numbers may be a bit misleading, since Jack has played more games/minutes of course his raw numbers will be larger.
Ok, well, this year, Jack turns over the ball on 17.8% of possessions, Calderon turns it over on 14.2% of possessions. So, yes, Calderon really does take better care of the ball.
Jack is a backup. A good backup, but a backup. Calderon is a starter. An average starter, but a starter.
Thank you for backing up what I've believed all along--Marco Belinelli should get WAY more time on the floor. Not only his plus/minus stats indicate his contribution, but also his ESPN PER score, which is better than Weems or DeRozan.
Why do you think Triano doesn't use Marco more?
Seems to me the bigger picture shouldn't have to concern itself with who the better PG is, but which wing that PG is paired up. Don't you think Triano has finally gotten it right by pairing Jack with Hedo (the de facto point), and Calderon with Wright?
I keep having this debate with one of my friends that "Chris Bosh is just not a #1 guy. He is not clutch and can't win a game on his own". Of course he pulled that out after tonights game. Care to dispell that myth?
How many guys can win a game on their own? My rough estimate is 5-10, if you are suggesting Bosh is not one of those people I am perfectly fine with that.
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