Toronto owns a one-game lead over the Bulls with 5 to play. They also own the tie-breaker against the Bulls regardless of the one game remaining between the two.
This is not news.
But let's put it into perspective and try to explain why John Hollinger still says the Raptors have an 86% of making the playoffs (though admittedly, that number doesn't take Chris Bosh's injury into account).
Let's consider two scenarios: One where the Raptors beat the Bulls in their head-to-head matchup, and one where the Bulls win.
First, if Toronto beats Chicago on Sunday, for all intents and purposes, the race is over, regardless of what happens in the other games.
Chicago would need to make up 3 games in the remaining part of the schedule. So, they would need to go a minimum of 3-1 against Cleveland, New Jersey, Boston, and Charlotte, while Toronto would need to 1-3 or 0-4 against Boston, Atlanta, Detroit, and New York. What is the likelihood of Chicago going 4-0 combined with Toronto going 1-3? Or the likelihood of Chicago going 3-1 with Toronto going 0-4? I'd say about 2 percent.
Now, let's assume Chicago beats Toronto on Sunday. That would mean Chicago only needs to make up one game to overtake the Raptors in the standings. But that's still easier said than done. Assuming Toronto takes care of business against teams with nothing to play for (Detroit and New York), Chicago still needs to go 3-1 against their opponents to get the playoff spot. Again, this isn't very likely.
The big question is: Can Toronto take care of business against those poor teams without Chris Bosh?
2 comments:
If the Raptors can't take care of business againgst those poor teams which yo've identified ... even without the services of Chris Bosh ... then, they don't deserve to make the playoffs, in the first place.
the answer to the big question is:
I don't know. If this team has done one thing consistently this year, it is to be confounding. I really don't know what to expect when they play New York and Detroit.
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