Ball v.1.40

A change in philosophy... that's the term that keeps popping in my head when I think about what Bryan Colangelo is trying to accomplish this off-season. He's abandoning the idea that you can out-finesse or out-offence teams in the NBA, and he's going to a more traditional way of building a roster. Athletes on the wings, and size on the blocks... gone (or soon to be gone in the case of Jose Calderon) are players who rely on savvy and basketball IQ, and to a lesser extent, who rely on shooting. Consider the career outside shooting numbers of the current point guards and swingmen on the Raptors:

CAREER 3PT FG%

Barbosa - 40%

Calderon - 39%

Bargnani - 38%

Jack - 36%

Kleiza - 34%

Barnes - 33%

DeRozan - 25%

Weems - 11%

No one over 40% and with Calderon likely not on the roster come October, only one guard above 36%.

But just how smart of a shift is this? Colangelo is abandoning his Euro-based philosophy at a time when it seems to be catching on in the NBA. The two most lethal offences in the NBA (arguably) are those of Phoenix and Orlando. And a big part of those arsenals is the three-point shot. Consider: The Suns had 6 players who shot better than 39% from beyond the arc last season, while the Magic featured 7 players that made at least one three per game. With the likely loss of Calderon, the Raptors will have just two players who drained at least one three-point shot per game last season (Jack & Bargnani).

So as I said (and as John Hollinger has written about extensively), the three-point shot is increasingly becoming an integral part of the best offences in the NBA. Here is an excerpt from one of Hollinger's articles:

"Teams that take lots of 3s tend to win, and the more 3s they jack up, the more successful they are. The idea that "real" teams don't depend on the 3 is based in the old-school mentality that the 3 is a novelty shot, a circus trick that has little to do with real basketball.

The truth is the exact opposite, though. The Celtics and Lakers both shoot the 3 far more than the league average... and nearly every other quality team from the past several years -- the only low-3 teams to break through were Larry Brown's Pistons teams and the '06 Mavs."

Hollinger expanded on this again later in the 2008-9 season:

"Few stats correlate better with winning than 3-point attempts... Check this out: The teams in the top 10 in 3-point attempts per field goal attempt have a combined win % of .593 and those in the bottom 10 have a combined win % of .400. That's no accident. Three-point attempts have correlated highly with winning for the past several years."

So, as you can see, I question Colangelo's strategy for revamping the roster. I understand what he's trying to do, he's trying to improve on the defensive side of the ball, especially on the perimeter, and that makes sense. As good as the Raptors have been hitting shots from outside the past few seasons (think Parker, Calderon, Kapono, etc...), they've been just as bad at giving up the three ball. The team was a -91 in terms of 3pt FGM - Opponent 3pt FGM last season, that ranked 21st in the NBA.

But, as Hollinger continued, preventing 3-point makes or attempts, isn't nearly as important as what you do on the offensive end:

"Here's the really weird part: Preventing 3-point attempts does not convey any similar advantage. The bottom 10 teams in this category are a combined .501, while the top are .509 -- an insignificant difference, especially considering teams in the middle 10 are wore than both the top and bottom groups."

So long story short... I'm a bit skeptical of the changes. Though I know how important defence is, I'm not sure you can totally neglect the offensive side of the ball, despite what the Charlotte Bobcats & Larry Brown might have to say about that.

STATS OF THE DAY

So, we don't know yet if Matt Barnes will be a Raptor, but here's a quick synopsis of what he will bring to the team: Among SF, he ranked in the top 10 in True Shooting % last season. That figure is encouraging because he didn't shoot the three all that well last season, meaning his shot selection inside the three-point line must be pretty good.

Next, Barnes had a net plus/minus of +6.2, which was 3rd best on the Magic.

But one stat about Barnes stands out above the rest, and I think this probably had a lot to do with the Raptors bringing him in after the departure of Chris Bosh:

Barnes' rebounding percentage was 2nd best among NBA SF last season. Only the crazy-freakish-ball-hawk Gerald Wallace was better. And this wasn't an aberration. Barnes has ranked among the top 5 SF in rebounding percentage in each of the past 3 seasons.

Listen, when you lose 11 boards a game, you need to make them up in some way, and Amir Johnson won't grab all 11 of those rebounds. You need guys to grab boards all over the floor and Barnes will do that, and that's why I expect he'd win the starting spot at the 3 if he does end up being a Raptor.