Turkoglu is gone, so is "Ball"

I enjoyed "Ball." You enjoyed "Ball." We all enjoyed "Ball."

But we've had enough fun with Balls. It's time to move on.

NEWS OF THE DAY

John Hollinger predicts the Raptors will finish 15th in the East, and win 22 games.

There's a good side to this you know. At least if the Raptors get the 1st overall pick in 2011, the draft will actually feature a legit #1 (see here or here).

The bad side is, well, Raptor fans would have to sit through another dreadful season.

QUESTION OF THE DAY

But before everyone gets all gloom and doom around here, let's ask a pertinent question: How accurate are Mr. Hollinger's predictions? Granted, he probably picked the Lakers to win the title last season, but if you asked my mom the same question, she would have given the same answer.

So, let's take a look at Mr. Hollinger's 2009-10 East forecast, and see how it stacked up to the real thing:

2009-10 Actual order of finish (with Hollinger prediction in brackets)

East
1. Cle (1)
2. Orl (2)
3. Atl (4)
4. Bos (3)
5. Mia (7)
6. Mil (14)
7. Cha (12)
8. Chi (9)
9. Tor (10)
10. Ind (11)
11. NY (13)
12. Det (8)
13. Phi (5)
14. Wsh (6)
15. NJ (15)

Quick Analysis: It doesn't take ESPN's resident basketball expert to know the Cavs, Magic, Hawks, Celts, and Heat were playoff teams coming into last season. Fact is, he whiffed on the only 3 "up for grabs" spots in the East. Granted, I don't think anyone predicted Gilbert Arenas would start packing heat in an NBA locker room. Here's one particularly bad forecast:

Philly: "Andre Miller may be gone, but Elton Brand returns to join several young studs -- Andre Iguodala, Thaddeus Young, Louis Williams, Marreese Speights -- on the East's most underrated squad."

My take: I think John is a bit over-reliant on his PER metric and forgets to take a step back to look at the forest instead of each tree (or something like that). What's funny is that's probably what most critics of my work would say about me.

With that in mind, let's take a look at Mr. Hollinger's 2010-11 predicted order of finish, and see if we can pick out where he's looking at the trees instead of the forest (last time I use that weak analogy, I promise):

2010-11 Hollinger Predictions for East

1. MIA 66-16
2. ORL 55-27
3. BOS 51-31
4. MIL 49-33
5. CHI 48-34
6. ATL 46-36
7. PHI 43-39
8. NY 37-45
9. IND 34-48
10. DET 32-50
11. CHA 30-52
12. WSH 30-52
13. CLE 29-53
14. NJ 26-56
15. TOR 22-60

My take:

• There are 6 pretty good-to-amazing teams in the East, followed by 9 very average, very flawed franchises.
• I absolutely refuse to believe the Cleveland Cavaliers are 7 games better than Toronto
• I absolutely refuse to believe the Philadelphia 76ers are an above .500 team. Who distributes for that team? Who shoots for that team?

ANALYSIS OF THE DAY

Media and fans like to make a bunch of assumptions about teams heading into a new season. For instance, here are two key assumptions about this season's Raptors:

1. With the loss of Chris Bosh, the team as a whole will struggle to score
2. Though the team will struggle to score without Bosh, Andrea Bargnani will thrive (offensively) without Bosh in the lineup

Let's see if those assumptions hold up by looking at how Toronto fared in 12 games without Bosh last season.

• Toronto went 5-7 WOB (without Bosh), compared to 35-35 WB (with Bosh). The WOB record translates to 34 wins over an 82-game schedule. Take that, John Hollinger! Seriously though, 5 of those 7 losses came against Portland, Cleveland, OKC, Boston, & Atlanta. In other words, this wasn't an easy slate of games.
• Toronto averaged 104 pts per game WOB, 104 WB..... whoa... ya, this team definitely struggled to score without CB4 (note: I understand sarcasm doesn't always translate via text, but I think you get the point here).
• Toronto allowed 107 pts per game WOB, 106 WB... again, another HUGE discrepancy.
• My eyes told me that the ball probably moved better without Bosh and his deliberate post moves in the game... well Toronto averaged 23 assists per game WOB, 22 WB... that's probably not noticeable to the eye... let's move on
• Want to know the most drastic change in games WOB? Not surprisingly, at the free throw line... Toronto got to the line 21 times per game WOB, compared to 27 times per game WB

BULLISH ON BARGNANI?

• Contrary to popular belief, Andrea Bargnani did not experience a surge in productivity WOB. He averaged 18 pts and 5 reb per game WOB, while shooting 46% from the field (compared to 17, 6, 47% on the season). The rebounding numbers are particularly surprising, and could be a good indicator that we shouldn't expect a bump this season.

JONESIN' FOR JOHNSON?

• Amir Johnson averaged 11 pts and 5 reb per game WOB while shooting 65% from the field (compared to 6, 5, 62% on the season). Nice bumps, but again nothing mind-boggling.

So where does the apparent enthusiasm for the Bargnani/Johnson come from? They stole from Costanza! (jump to about 1:21)

Over the last week or so of the season, Bargnani & Johnson were the featured frontcourt of the Raptors, and these were their average numbers:

Bargnani: 21 pts, 5 reb, 49% FG
Johnson: 16 pts, 5 reb, 73% FG

Granted, your team isn't going anywhere if your starting frontcourt grabs a combined 10 boards per game, but I digress. Those are phenomenal offensive numbers for a starting frontcourt (37 pts, 57% FG combined).

NEXT POST: Did anyone else flourish WOB? Should I get rid of the "WOB" shortform?