Saturday, December 4, 2010

Andrea the All-Star?

Walt Williams, Keon Clark, Oliver Miller, John Wallace, Acie Earl... those names echo through the hallowed halls of the ACC... legends in their own right... and now, you can add Andrea Bargnani's name to that legendary list.

Seriously, on Friday night, Bargnani became just the 16th player in Raptor history to put up a 25+ pt, 12+ reb game (something Chris Bosh did 53 times).

The thing I liked about his game: When OKC went small in the 4th, it took Bargnani about 6 minutes to realize, "hey, if I just go down to the low block, crash the boards and--generally speaking--act like a 7-footer, I should be able to control this game." Granted, I didn't like that it took him 6 minutes to figure this out, but just the fact that he figured it out at all is progress (baby steps).

So, here's my question today (because I think I heard either a radio or television voice bring it up last night), and it's not rooted in the type of numbers I usually look at (because, frankly, Bargnani doesn't look good in that light). But here's the question: Is Bargnani an Eastern Conference all-star at centre?

Let's get one qualifier out of the way immediately: The only way he has a remote shot is if Dwight Howard wins the fan voting. If Shaq wins the fan vote, that means Howard has to be a reserve, all but guaranteeing Bargnani would be out of the loop.

Next, let's take his one real positive (his scoring) and put it in context:

He's averaging 20.9 points per game, as a 7-footer. Is that rare? Here's the list of 7-footers that have averaged at least that amount over the last 15 years:

Patrick Ewing
Yao Ming
Dirk Nowitzki
Shaquille O'Neal
Hakeem Olajuwon
David Robinson

So, what he's doing is pretty impressive/unique considering his size & position.

Moving on, let's assume that Shaq won't win the fan vote, and Dwight Howard gets in as the starter. Who are the candidates to be the reserve?

Andrea Bargnani: 21 pts, 6 reb per game, 38% 3pt
Roy Hibbert: 16 pts, 9 reb, 3 ast per game
Al Horford: 16 pts, 10 reb per game, 58% fg
Brook Lopez: 19 pts, 6 reb, 1.6 blk per game
Joakim Noah: 15 pts, 12 reb, 1.4 blk per game
*listed in alpha order

(Andrew Bogut has only played 12 games, and is only averaging 11 pts per game in those 12)

Let's get one thing out of the way immediately: I'm not on the Brook Lopez bandwagon. To put it in perspective, he has a lower field goal percentage than Bargnani, despite the fact that he doesn't shoot threes! And they have the exact same rebound rate!

Let's also scratch Roy Hibbert off the list. He's having a nice season, and we're all surprised at his playmaking ability, but it's just a year or two too early for him.

But even if you knock off those two, that still means Bargnani would have to be picked over Joakim Noah and Al Horford. Those are two players whose contributions to the game go beyond the box score. They defend well, set hard screens, alter shots, etc.... And ultimately, I can't see the coaches looking past that when it comes time to pick reserves.

However, let's go back to Bargnani's 20 pts per game as a 7-footer, and add one more wrinkle, something I'll call my stat of the day.

STAT OF THE DAY

20+ PTS PER GAME
7-0 OR TALLER
25 YRS OF AGE OR YOUNGER

It's something that's happened just 38 times in NBA history, done by just 14 players. Here is the list (in alpha order):

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Joe Barry Carroll
Bill Cartwright
Wilt Chamberlain
Brad Daugherty
Patrick Ewing
Pau Gasol
Yao Ming
Dirk Nowitzki
Shaquille O'Neal
Hakeem Olajuwon
David Robinson
Ralph Sampson

3 comments:

Tim W. said...

There's a difference between being unique and being an All-Star. Bargnani is a unique player, but he does one thing really well and two other important things poorly.

Michael Beasley is averaging more points, rebounds, assists, steals, the same number of blocks, shooting a higher percentage from three and the field. SHould he be an All-Star, or is he just able to get those numbers because he's on a team without a lot of talent?

Noah and Horford are better all around players who play for better teams. You obviously pick those guys first.

And if it's too early to pick ROy Hibbert, why isn't it also too early to pick Bargnani? This is the first year either of those players have been producing at this level.

Anonymous said...

Ok but Tim. do you see His competition at small forward in the west. granger anthony gay.

Stephen said...

I think the problem I have with calling Bargnani a possible all-star is that he's still pretty much a one-dimensional player. The six guys who averaged 20+ points in the last 15 years were more than offensive players, they were also dominant defensive players, rebounders or both (with the exception of Nowitski who while not a great defensive player is a much more dominant offensive player than Bargnani).

You're absolutley right that given the mechanics of the voting procedure he has a chance of making it but I'm definitely not sold on the idea that he should be considered an all-star calibre player. He is improving but he's not there yet.