Turn (over) me up some! (inside joke for the Woychyshyn brothers)

So, the Raptors are a bad team. This, I understand, is not earth-shattering news. I suspect it's not even glass-shattering news (or news at all for that matter).

But, looking at the numbers, can we figure out why they're a bad team? Naked eye observation tells me they give up a bunch of easy buckets, and have to work too hard for their own. But I'm not sure how accurate that is.

While looking through some numbers, I came across this surprising stat (I'll call it my stat of the day):

STAT OF THE DAY

Toronto Raptors Turnover Pct
Since 2000-01

2010-11 14.8
2003-04 14.1
2001-02 13.6
2002-03 13.6
2006-07 13.0

Putting that into words, the Raptors are turning the ball over more often than any other season since the turn of the century. This is (somewhat) surprising, given that Jose Calderon is back as Toronto's full-time starting point guard, but less surprising if you think about the numbers just a little bit. Consider a few factors:

1. Calderon's turnover rate is at its highest point since his rookie season.

How much of this can be attributed to Calderon? Tough to say. I would submit that part of this is reflective of inexperienced post players (Bargnani, Johnson, Evans, Davis, Dorsey) not knowing how to properly seal, pick & roll, etc...

2. Linas Kleiza travels about once every 2.4 minutes

This number might be an approximation (and by approximation, I mean exaggeration)

3. Chris Bosh ain't walkin' thru that door

Turnover Pct This Season

Joey Dorsey 28.1
Reggie Evans 20.5
Amir Johnson 12.7

Chris Bosh's career turnover pct - 11.0

You see what I'm getting at. Say what you will about Mr. Bosh, but for someone who had the ball in his hands an awful lot, he didn't cough it up very often (is that because he never passed the ball with any type of degree of difficulty - well, yes). And Mr. Bosh's minutes have been replaced (for the most part) with a trio of players with a (minutes-weighted) turnover percentage of 17.5.

That probably explains the turnovers more than anything.

OTHER NOTABLE TEAM STATS

Two things I came across that interested me -

94.5 Pace Factor - highest ever (prev. high - 95-96)

I'm not sure if we've talked about this (I'm pretty sure we have), but Pace has no correlation with winning whatsoever. Having said that, teams that go into seasons knowing they are less talented than the majority of the league usually try one of two strategies -

1. Either really slow the pace down, make it a game of as few possessions as possible (thereby increasing the role luck plays over the course of a game)... think Kevin O'Neill's Raptors;

2. Or really fast the pace up (if "slow down" is a term, shouldn't "fast up" be one as well?), and hope even though your team isn't as talented as most, that at least you can teach effort, fitness, etc... and hope sprinting can lead to points/wins.

Now, my eyes tell me the first strategy is much more efficient (and likely to succeed) with less talented players. Less talented players are usually less athletic, and less athletic doesn't usually work when you fast the pace up. I also think, historically, the first option has been more successful. Think of the Milwaukee Bucks last season, or the 95-96 Florida Panthers (oh, this isn't a hockey blog?).

Anyways, the Raptors are clearly trying out the second strategy. But there's a reason why this will NEVER work for this team:

32.7 3pt Pct - worst ever (prev. low - 34.1 - 98-99)

First of all, no matter what pace you play, if you're shooting this poorly from the three-point line, you better be damn good somewhere else, and the Raptors don't fit that mold.

But, if you're trying to play an up-tempo game when you know you're outmanned, that strategy will ONLY work if you can kick it out for lots of wide open threes in transition.

Consider this:

Pace above 94, 3pt pct below 33%
Since 1995-96

02-03 Cle 17 wins
01-02 GS 21 wins
00-01 GS 17 wins
99-00 GS 19 wins
99-00 Sac 44 wins
98-99 Sac 44 wins (proj. win total)
96-97 Phi 22 wins

Few things here -

1. There's a reason this hasn't happened in 8 years. If you're playing at a fast pace, you're shooting the ball well from outside. If you're not, your coach adjusts and slows the pace down. In other words, there's no reason in rushing down the court to take contested 2s.

2. The average win total of those teams - 26. Toronto is on pace for 28.

3. The only playoff team on that list - The late '90s Kings. In other words, you can play at a fast pace and shoot poorly from 3pt land........ IF you have two of the best passing big men of the last 30 years (Divac & Webber) on your team getting you layup after layup.

My closing advice to the Raptors:

I know why they won't do a Kevin O'Neill / Scott Skiles type of transformation. That type of basketball isn't (necessarily) fun to watch. But, if you're going to keep up with this pace of play, please find some three point shooters to throw on your wings. This current collection of DeRozan (10%), Weems (26%), Kleiza (32%), and Barbosa (34%) just isn't good enough.