Ball v.1.1

I've decided instead of coming up with cheeky/snarky/semi-intelligent headlines, every post for the rest of my existence will simply be "Ball." Doesn't get any more succinct than that.

STATS LIE

The Raptors are 4-0 this season when Chris Bosh turns the ball over six times or more.

NOT BUYING WHAT THE TURK IS SELLING

Definitely not buying Hedo Turkoglu's go-to explanation for when he plays well. The Turk seems to think that it's dependent on the team giving him the ball in order for him to produce. I emphatically disagree. They give him the ball all the time, it's just a matter of whether he's had the energy to do anything with it. Last night, he did. Consider:

HEDO TURKOGLU

FIELD GOALS AT THE RIM THIS SEASON

Jan. 28 vs NYK 5

Nov. 29 vs PHX 3

Dec. 13 vs HOU 3

11 times 2

He had five layups / dunks last night, a season-high. Two things: First, it's pretty embarrassing that he's only had three games this season with three field goals at the rim or more (compared to 17 games with 0 field goals at the rim). Secondly, notice a trend with the teams he's done it against? Knicks, Suns, and Rockets --- They all allow over 100 points per game, and they all lack size (& shot blockers) up front. All I'm saying is: I'll be impressed if Turkoglu puts his body on the line and gets to the rim against Boston or Orlando. It doesn't impress me against the Knicks.

THE POINT GUARD DEBATE

We really are going back in time to the good ol' days of Caldeford. Two point guards, almost equally splitting time, each wanting to finish games. Quite honestly, I don't think it's even been close in terms of who has played better. However, one of them keeps making up for overall poor play by hitting a big shot or two in the fourth quarter (and that seems to be all fans remember). But let's look at the numbers:

POINT GUARDS

SINCE CALDERON'S RETURN

Jack: 4 assists per game, 2.1 ast/to ratio, -32

Calderon: 5 assists per game, 4.5 ast / to ratio, +88

Calderon has been a plus in 10 of the 12 games. Jack has been a plus in 2 of the 12 games. However, a big layup against the Knicks, some tough finishes against the Lakers, and people are still convinced Jack is a better point guard for this team.

Whatever, it's still 48 minutes of above-average point guard play, something that I said was the key missing ingredient to last year's team. Consider:

TORONTO POINT GUARDS - A NEW ERA

09-10 Caldejack 22 pts, 11 ast, 5 reb, 4 to, 49% FG, 40% 3PT, 81% FT

07-08 Caldeford 23 pts, 14 ast, 5 reb, 4 to, 49% FG, 41% 3PT, 89% FT

06-07 Caldeford 22 pts, 13 ast, 5 reb, 5 to, 46% FG, 32% 3PT, 82% FT

As you can see, the numbers are nearly identical (the only reason the assist numbers are down is because of the presence of Turkoglu). Otherwise, you're still getting 48 minutes of efficient, offensive basketball from your point guards. And as a bonus, "Jack" meshes just as well with "Calde" as "Ford" did.

Ball

"Ball....."

"I got nothing else to say...."

"Yes Sir....."

The best.... post-game interview.... ever.

The Bargnani Factor: Appendices

"Over the past month we have watched Bargnani evolve into a more complete player. While his ability to make shots from 24 feet remains, it is his willingness to put the ball on the floor and drive to the basket with a proficiency rarely seen in big men, which has dramatically changed his effectiveness." – Bob McCown, "The Bargnani Factor", January 28, 2010

This is an excerpt from Bob McCown's blog over at Fadoo.ca. The topic (Andrea Bargnani's development) is certainly timely and appropriate, given how Il Mago has played this season (last night notwithstanding). However, there are a few additional points to the above paragraph that I think help tell the full story about Bargnani's change in play:

First, Bargnani's most valuable attribute is clearly his offensive play. However, he is also averaging career highs in offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds, total rebounds (obviously), and blocks. So, he's stepping up his play in all areas.

Secondly, Bargnani's evolution into Toronto's key secondary scorer actually began last season, not just over the past month, or even just over this season. Take a look at his pre/post all-star game splits:

Next, Bob is definitely accurate when he mentions Bargnani's newfound willingness to drive to the basket. Much like his overall numbers, it was a trend that began last season and has peaked this campaign. Take a look at Bargnani's shots from 10 feet and in (data provided by hoopdata.com

Finally, the biggest change in Bargnani's play this season that I've noticed using naked-eye observation is his mid-range game. His ability to fake a three-point shot, put the ball on the floor, and pick up his dribble to hit a 15-footer before reaching the awaiting defence is something I've never seen before (from him at least). Do the numbers back me up? Luckily, hoopdata allows us to look at shots from 10-15 feet away:

It's a dramatic change in style just over the course of a few seasons. He's taking twice as many mid-range jumpers than just two seasons ago! There are two notes that expand on this data. First, let's just collectively sum up his first three seasons and compare it to this season:

He's taking 56% more mid-range shots this season than his previous three seasons, and he's making them much more often. And secondly, Bargnani's 54% accuracy from this range is actually tops among NBA centres who take at least one attempt per game.

So, in summation, Bargnani began to improve last season, and this evolution has turned him into one of the most well-rounded offensive frontcourt players in the NBA.

Many NBA pundits have written that Chris Bosh could actually be a better player if he's a complementary scorer playing alongside a more offensive-minded star. They say that this could be a key determining factor when/if Bosh chooses a new team in July. But perhaps he's had a offensive-minded star alongside him in Toronto all along, it's just taken a few years for that scorer to reveal himself.

Blessing in Disguise

A quick disclaimer: This post has nothing to do with the long-term ramifications of this franchise. I understand it is important to develop players with an eye towards future seasons (however, I have a bit of problem with that as it relates to the Toronto Raptors --- more on that in a later post, but I digress). So if you find yourself disagreeing with anything below, make sure you're reading it in the context of someone who wishes only to maximize this season's output for the Raptors.

So, with that being said, here is the premise for today's content: DeMar DeRozan's injury could be the best thing that happens to this team this season.

This entire strategy of giving him minutes with the starting five in order to "develop" him has never made sense to me. I was told yesterday that it shouldn't matter if he's being given these minutes because they're not "big minutes" (as if it matters whether the team gives up a 10-0 run in the first quarter as opposed to the fourth).

To put it as simply as I can, DeRozan (right now) is not good enough to be in a playoff team's rotation. I can see that from my own eyes, and the numbers back me up in black and white terms. To me, this is a really simple conclusion to reach, but I find whenever I talk about it, people can't seem to understand that DeRozan isn't very good (I suspect it's the fastbreak dunks that cloud their judgment). Furthermore, the numbers have shown that the Raptors are much better with Marco Belinelli on the floor. Again, this seems obvious to my own eyes, and the numbers back me up. But again, whenever I discuss this with Raptor fans, people can't seem to understand that the team is better with Belinelli (I suspect it's the off-balance jumpers).

Anyways, I will try to make the case as clearly as I can that this is a good thing for the Raptors:

He's not a good defender --- To those who suggest DeRozan is more of a defensive playmaker than Belinelli: Belinelli averages 2.2 defensive plays (blocks / steals / charges) per 40 minutes. DeRozan averages 2.1. Predicted rebuttal: Defensive plays aren't the be-all and end-all when it comes to defence. True, so try this: Belinelli's checks have produced a PER of just 13.1 this season, DeRozan's: 17.3.

He doesn't know how to pass --- Among the Raptors, only Andrea Bargnani and Amir Johnson average fewer assists per 40 minutes than DeRozan. Among guards playing at least 20 minutes per game, DeRozan averages the fewest assists in the entire NBA. Predicted rebuttal: It's not his job to create. There are other ballhandlers on the floor when he's out there, etc... Well, it's not Belinelli's job to create or have the ball in his hands either, he's a shooter. Same with Antoine Wright, or Sonny Weems, or even Rasho Nesterovic... none of them are primary (or even secondary ballhandlers). But if you understand the game, and how to play within an offence, or even just how to run, start, & finish a fastbreak, then a lot of assists just kind of come naturally even to players who don't have the ball in their hands very often. DeRozan lacks all of the qualities I just mentioned.

He doesn't how to finish --- Whether it's because of his shorter-than-expected height (I project it somewhere around 6'4 or 6'5), his shorter than expected wingspan (which makes his seem even shorter than his shorter-than-expected height), his lack of strength, his lack of understanding when to shoot, when to drive, when to pass, etc.... whatever... he is struggling to finish around the rim. No player on the Raptors gets blocked more often than DeRozan (8.5%). That number ranks in the bottom 10 among NBA guards as well. A trend: If you look at the players surrounding DeRozan in that high-block percentage, you'll notice a plethora of young players (Harden, Westbrook, W. Bynum, Stuckey, Affalo, C. Lee, Ge. Hill, etc...). That's because these guys are still learning how to pick their spots, and are learning how big/strong/tall/athletic NBA players really are. Predicted rebuttal: But DeRozan gets blocked a lot because he's taking it to the rim so often and finishing as well. You have to give him credit for that. Counter-point: Belinelli averages more "and-1s" per 40 minutes than DeRozan, but gets blocked half as often.

He can't stretch the floor --- NBA defences are tough to play against. They're tough to play against mainly because they (namely, the good ones) will find a way (more often than the bad ones) to have your 4th or 5th option end up shooting the ball. In years past, for Raptors fans, this meant a Shawn Marion or Jamario Moon corner three. This season, teams are hoping that Raptor possessions end up with the ball in DeRozan's hands with 6-10 seconds left on the clock. Why? For all of the reasons I've already listed: A lack of understanding, a lack of playmaking, and because he can't hurt them with the three ball. DeRozan is shooting 28% from three-point land. I'm not using this against him.. he only takes one every three games or so. It's just that this reality--the fact that the player sitting in the weakside corner can't hit a three ball--really allows teams to drift off of DeRozan and help on Bosh or Bargnani down low. Predicted rebuttal: Why does it matter if he moves in and shoots a 20-footer for two instead of the three? He's got a better field goal percentage than Belinelli this season. First of all, let's eliminate the misconception that he's shooting a better percentage than Belinelli. True, his field goal percentage is higher (46% compared to 40%). However, as most statheads know, FG% doesn't account for the added value of a three. When you compare the two players in effective field goal percentage (EFG%), you see that Belinelli has actually been a better shooter (49% to 47%). And as for that long, wide-open two that DeRozan loves to take: He's shooting 37% on 16-23 footers this season (that's an expected value of 0.7 points per shot). Belinelli's 39% accuracy on three-pointers actually gives him an expected value of 1.2 points per shot (and believe me, if he got as many wide open looks from the corner as defences give DeRozan, those numbers would be significantly higher). Here's something interesting: DeRozan actually has a higher expected value on his threes (0.8 points per shot) than his long twos this season. So when you cite DeRozan's willingness to pass up threes for the long two, it's actually not a good idea.

ADD IT ALL UP, WHAT DO YOU GET?

When I try to Coles notes all this stuff and produce an argument for people that Belinelli is much better for this team than DeRozan, here is the usual, final rebuttal: Ya, but we don't need another scorer in the starting five, it's good that DeRozan doesn't try to do too much when he's out there. This, to me, might be the weakest argument I've ever heard. According to this logic, DeRozan would be the perfect shooting guard for this team if he simply stayed in the corner, and didn't touch the ball (actually, he already does that).

This is when sites like 82games and basketballvalue really come in handy. Because they don't mess around with individual stats... they simply tell you: This five-man unit has been good, that five-man unit hasn't. The team does well when this player is on the floor. The team doesn't do well when that player is on the floor.

MY FINAL ARGUMENTS

The Raptors get outscored by 5.2 points per 48 minutes when DeRozan is on the floor. That's the worst mark among the team's rotation players (even Antoine Wright is only -3.2). The usual rebuttal to a mark like that is: Well, a stat like that doesn't account for the supporting cast on the floor with the player. However, in this case, we know that the heavy majority of DeRozan's floor time comes with Toronto's best players. Conversely, the Raptors outscore the opposition by 4.8 points per 48 minutes when Belinelli is on the floor (tied for the best mark on the team with Bargnani).

And finally, basketballvalue tracks all of the five-man units used by a team in a given season. As of today, the Raptors had used 22 different lineups for at least 20 minutes. I've sorted them by overall rating (pts per 100 possessions subtracted by pts allowed per 100 possessions), and listed the shooting guard in each lineup:

1. +37 (Belinelli)
2. +30 (Belinelli)
3. +29 (Belinelli)
4. +29 (Belinelli)
5. +14 (Wright)
6. +13 (Wright)
7. +11 (DeRozan)
8. +9 (Weems)
9. +7 (Belinelli)
10. +7 (Belinelli)
11. +7 (Belinelli)
12. +6 (DeRozan)
13. +2 (DeRozan) --- starting lineup with Calderon
14. +2 (Belinelli)
15. +2 (Belinelli)
16. 0 (DeRozan)
17. -4 (Wright)
18. -6 (Belinelli)
19. -9 (DeRozan) --- the current starting lineup
20. -16 (Jack) --- the dreaded Calderon / Jack backcourt
21. -25 (Belinelli)
22. -49 (DeRozan) --- DeRozan / Wright as the swingmen... let us never see this again

So, Belinelli appears as the shooting guard in seven of top 11, Wright in two, and DeRozan & Weems in one each.

Listen, I'm sure none of this is news to Jay Triano, or Bryan Colangelo, or any of the members of press row (well, maybe I shouldn't go that far). But, I've struggled all season with the fact that DeRozan (21 mpg--- that's minutes per game, not miles per gallon) gets more burn than Belinelli (19 mpg). It's never made sense to me, and hopefully, Belinelli can take advantage of an opportunity (if it presents itself) to earn more minutes. Then maybe the team will abandon their wish of developing a 10-point deficit at the start of every half (sorry, I mean their wish of developing DeRozan at the start of every half).

Best message I've read in a long time...

Message boards are a weird place to roam. They're kind of like Fox News... you tune in fully expecting to be disappointed by what you hear, but you go anyway.

ANYWAYS... I was reading Mr. Grange's post about yesterday's game, and came across the following message, which I will post in its entirety, because it's that good:

WTomlin76 wrote:

Personally I don't buy the argument that Turkoglu has had a bad season. In Orlando he wasn't a dominant scorer, he was a ball-handler and distributor who would take the big shots when needed. Orlando trusted Hedo to facilitate their offense, and as Charles Barkley said about the Magic this season "they miss Turkoglu."

To me, this is about the stat culture that ruins Toronto basketball discussions. Reporters, who often don't even watch the games, just let the stat line do their thinking for them. The reality is that whenever the ball was in Hedo's hands against the Lakers last night, good stuff happened. Whether it was knowing when to shoot or when to pass, Hedo usually made the right decision. And a lot of his passes were to wide open hot shooters like Jack and Andrea B.

Has anyone considered that with Hedo contributing the Raptors have one of the best offenses in the NBA? Does anyone notice how guys playing alongside him like Andrea B. are having career years? Hedo's passing and ball handling are a great addition.

Just Toronto sports media only know how to read stat lines, well here's a stat, this teams' great record comes with Hedo playing heavy minutes consistently, the fact that his stat sheet doesn't glow with 20-point performances doesn't mean he's having a bad year. The Raptors recent win-loss record and exceptional offense prove to me he is making a solid contribution.

His message echoes a lot of things I said when I first started writing this blog. Yes, it's a statistics-based blog, but I always was dismayed by the way Toronto writers used the "front page stats" (pts, reb, ast) to formulate their storylines. And I know I have been "ripping" Turkoglu a bit of late, however, you'll notice that my observations have been how his performance has changed compared to prior years. And the performances I have been tracking are his "hustle" stats, not his front page stats.

To further the earlier point about Hedo, I'll pass along a great message via Twitter from "Steeebo":

"Hedo averaging 12.5 / 4.5 / 4.5 this yr & his career avgs are 12.3 / 4.2 / 2.8 so basically Hedo IS WHAT WE THOUGHT HE IS."

See, that's a way of using those front page stats effectively (i.e. In a way that the mainstream media is not).

Here's one more way of using the mainstream stats to tell a different story about Turkoglu: Those seasonal averages of 12.5 / 4.5 / 4.5... here's the list of players in the NBA averaging at least those amounts in all three categories:

Lebron James

Kobe Bryant

Dwyane Wade

Brandon Roy

Joe Johnson

Tyreke Evans

Chris Paul

Andre Iguodala

Russell Westbrook

Hedo Turkoglu

That's not a bad list, and all of this talk reminds of a favourite line, courtesy of Homer Simpson: "People can come up with statistics to prove anything. 40% of all people know that."

Definitely not a Lazy Sunday

Let's just update a few trends we've been following here at Caldeford before I get to Sunday's win over the Lakers:

TORONTO RAPTORS
BEST HOME WINNING PERCENTAGE

2006-07 .732 (30-11) *
2009-10 .714 (15-6)
2000-01 .659 (27-14) *
1999-00 .634 (26-15) *
2007-08 .610 (25-16) *
2001-02 .585 (24-17) *
*made playoffs

The Raptors continue to impress on their homecourt, and this does bode well for the team's immediate future: 9 of the next 12 at home, no "road trip" at all during that time (where "road trip" = more than 1 game in a row away from home).

However, it doesn't bode well for their playoff chances. They are just 8-16 on the road this season, including an abysmal 2-13 record vs. teams at or above .500. If you can't win on the road against playoff teams, you're simply not going anywhere in the playoffs.

SUNDAY IS FUNDAY

The Raptors have now played 6 Sunday home dates against Western Conference opponents this season. They're 5-1 against Phoenix, Houston, New Orleans, San Antonio, Dallas, and the Lakers.... 6 teams that, collectively, are 59 games above .500 this season.

CAN YOU FEEL IT?

I don't like to get caught up in writing about non-quantifiable stuff here at Caldeford, however, I want to briefly mention the unique electricity that was present at the ACC during the game last night.

There's only a few players that have come in to the arena (in my experience) that just have that aura about them: MJ, Kobe, Shaq, LeBron, and Vince. Mr. Carter probably doesn't belong on that list based on his accomplishments, but because of his---ahem---history here, he generates (or at least did) that buzz in the building.

Anyways, best crowd and best game of the season...

INSTANT NOSTALGIA

So where does it rank in terms of best regular season home dates ever? Here's a brief list I put together... counting down from five:

5. Sunday, January 8th, 2006 --- NJ 105, TOR 104 --- The only loss on the list. Playing in just his second game back in Toronto, Vince Carter hits a game winning three pointer that he calls "his greatest shot ever." Carter scored 42 points, including 24 in the fourth quarter... and he also got good friend Morris Peterson ejected from the game in the first half after Steve "Look at me" Javie made one of the worst calls I've ever seen in person. Bonus points because I somehow managed to sit courtside for this game, and made Vince laugh with one of my chirps.

4. Sunday December 8th, 1996 --- TOR 97, CHI 89 --- The defending champs rolled into the weekend with a 17-1 record. However, after a home loss to the Miami Heat the night before, mostly everyone expected the Bulls to take out their frustrations on the 6-12 Raptors. It didn't happen. Michael Jordan suffered through a 5-for-17 shooting performance, Damon Stoudamire had 31 points and the Raptors pulled off another shocking upset of the Bulls (more on the first one later). Interestingly enough (or maybe not), the Bulls followed up the two-game losing streak with another 17-1 streak. One more fun fact: Sharone Wright and Popeye Jones both had double-doubles for the Raptors.

3. Sunday, February 27th, 2000 --- TOR 103, PHX 102 --- Welcome to the Carter Show, America. Remember Raptor fans, it wasn't all bad memories with this guy. Making their first ever appearance on US national television, the Raptors take out the 34-20 Suns on the heels of Vince's 51-point effort.

2. Sunday, January 24th, 2010 --- TOR 106, LAL 105 --- The Raptors welcome the best in the West to town. Kobe, Gasol, Bynum and co. bring a 33-10 record into the ACC. A well-played game (37 assists overall compared to 22 turnovers... 30-35 combined from the line) featuring (arguably) the two best front courts in the NBA. Oh, and also the 2nd best player in the NBA. Numerous dunks, highlights, and opposing runs from each team. Punctuated by a near make by one of league's all-time greats.... a shot that nearly everyone in the arena expected him to make (despite its degree of difficulty).

1. Sunday, March 24th, 1996 --- TOR 109, CHI 108 --- This wasn't the first time the Raptors played the Bulls tough at home. Back in January, the Raptors actually led at the half against the 32-3 Bulls, and had a chance to tie the game as the clock winded down (I won't tell you who took the potential game-tying shot... I'll only say it's hilarious, and it can be found here). So, you'd think MJ and company wouldn't mess around a few months later, as they marched into town with a 60-7 (!!!) record to face the 17-49 Raptors. But Mighty Mouse (I think the Bulls had trouble against quick, small point guards) led the Raps with 30 points and 11 assists, and Jordan's potential game-winning shot was a fraction of a second too late (shades of Kobe... or I guess, Kobe was shades of MJ... you get the idea).

Honourable mention: Sunday, March 19th, 2000 --- TOR 100, HOU 98 --- Vince Carter with a game-winning baseline drive & jam over Hakeem Olajuwon.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

Hey, did you realize all those games, including the honourable mention, came on Sunday. I'm telling you... magical stuff happens at the ACC on Sundays ("magical" = not very quantifiable).

QUICK STATS OF THE DAY

• The Raptors improved to just 6-21 all-time vs the Lakers

• The Raptors had a 26-9 free throw advantage despite being outrebounded 51-39

• Since Kobe has been in the NBA (992 games), only 3 times have the Lakers attempted fewer than 9 free throws in a game

• The Raptors were 2-7 against the Top 5 defences in the NBA before last night's game

• The Raptors are now 10-4 this season when Andrea Bargnani grabs 8 boards or more

You've got questions... I've got answers...

Matt wrote:

It seems like it's pretty common that when Bosh has a huge offensive game (like the one last night against the Bucks), the Raps lose. This might be an interesting blog topic. Bosh seems to slow down the offense when he has the ball. Even though he usually puts on show when the ball is in his hands, are the Raptors better off with a bosh-centric offense? Don't know how, but could be an interesting analysis.

I respond:

Good question Matt. A quick pull of Bosh's highest-scoring games reveals the following:

The Raptors are just 8-10 when Chris Bosh scores 35 points or more (including a 1-4 mark when he puts up more than 40).

What might be a more interesting way of looking at it is this: Bosh took 26 shots last night. The Raptors are 5-8 in Bosh's career when he takes 25 shots or more.

Is there a magic number from Bosh's perspective that will lead to wins? A stat that, if he hits, will ensure victory?

Let's set the time period from 2005-06 to this season (since Bosh has been the team's unquestioned alpha dog)... and let's roll out the numbers:

• Is it when he's aggressive driving to the hoop? Nope... the team is 15-17 when Bosh has 15 free throw attempts or more
• Is it when he's looking to find his teammates offensively? Nope... the team is 21-21 when Bosh has 5 assists or more
• Is it when he's crashing the glass offensively? Nope... the team is 20-31 when Bosh has 5 offensive rebounds or more
• Is it when he's cleaning up the glass on both ends? Not bad.... the team is 20-16 when Bosh has 15 rebounds or more
• Is it when he's selectively picking his spots offensively? Pretty, pretty, pretty good... the team is 46-26 when Bosh shoots 60% from the field or better

We seem to be getting warmer, but I'm a bit skeptical of the 60% field goal percentage number because he could shoot 3-5 from the field when a bunch of other players go off and the team wins. It shows up almost as a false positive... yes the team won, but was it really due to Bosh's play?

No, there only was one or two numbers that I think provided us with a real answer, and it comes back to something I talked about earlier this year: Defensive Plays. I don't have the ability to search his game logs for charges drawn, but blocks and steals tell a compelling story:

• The team is 8-5 when Bosh has 3 steals or more
• The team is 23-12 when Bosh has 3 blocks or more

When he's got a real nose for the ball, and he's getting steals and blocks, it's even more obvious:

• The team is 8-1 when Bosh's steals & blocks add up to 5 or more

So, there's the magic elixir... When Bosh is getting after it defensively... when, as I said, he's got a "nose for the ball," the team wins.

Simple as that.

AN INSIDE JOB

If you're looking for evidence that:

• Bosh is working harder than ever
• DeRozan is listening to the coaches
• Bargnani is starting to "get it"
• Antoine Wright came into the season out of shape
• Hedo Turkoglu came into the season out of shape

Just look here:

TORONTO RAPTORS
INSIDE SHOTS PER 40 MINUTES

1. Chris Bosh 10.5
2. Rasho Nesterovic 8.2
3. DeMar DeRozan 6.6
4. Amir Johnson 6.5
5. Andrea Bargnani 5.4
6. Sonny Weems 4.9
7. Jarrett Jack 4.1
8. Marcus Banks 4.0
9. Marco Belinelli 3.9
10. Jose Calderon 3.7
11. Antoine Wright 3.6
12. Hedo Turkoglu 3.3

(INSIDE SHOTS = FGA less than 10 ft from the rim)

Two stats of the day

TORONTO RAPTORS
BEST RECORD THROUGH 41 GAMES

2001-02 24-17*
1999-00 22-19*
2000-01 22-19*
2007-08 22-19*
2009-10 21-20
*made playoffs

This is just the fifth time in franchise history the Raptors are above .500 through 42 games. The good omen: In each of the four previous instances, the Raptors made the playoffs.

TORONTO RAPTORS
BEST HOME WINNING PERCENTAGE

2006-07 .732 (30-11) *
2009-10 .684 (13-6)
2000-01 .659 (27-14) *
1999-00 .634 (26-15) *
2007-08 .610 (25-16) *
2001-02 .585 (24-17) *
*made playoffs

This season also seems like it will be the fifth time in franchise history the Raptors have finished with a home winning percentage above .600. Good omen: In every other one of those instances, the Raptors made the playoffs.

Lazy Sundays?

Do the Raptors strategically schedule Western Conference opponents to early Sunday afternoon game times? Is there an actual advantage to doing that?

Consider:

The Raptors have played at home 19 times this season (sporting an impressive 13-6 record).

There has been roughly a 50/50 split between Sunday home dates and non-Sunday home dates (9/10 split).

Despite the nearly even split of Sunday and non-Sunday games, the Raptors have played just one Western Conference team on a non-Sunday home date. Conversely, the majority of their Sunday home games have come against teams from the West (Phoenix, Houston, New Orleans, San Antonio, and Dallas).

Before we get to some more numbers, first, let me explain the theory:

CREATURES OF HABIT

Basketball players, and all professional athletes really, are creatures of habit. From the time they're young teenagers, they're told not only when to stretch, study, practice, & play... they're also told when to sleep, eat, nap, wake up, etc... (none of this, I'm aware, is groundbreaking).

Most of these athletes are used to playing at night. They're used to the odd afternoon game, HOWEVER, what they aren't used to are morning games. And for teams from the West, a 12:30 start in Toronto is a morning game. Let me put it to you this way: How would you perform in your regular 11 a.m. budget meeting if all of a sudden it was scheduled for 3 a.m.?

THE RESULTS

So, as I said, five of Toronto's 9 Sunday home games have come against Western Conference teams, while just 1 of their 10 non-Sunday home games have come against the West.

Phoenix, Houston, New Orleans, San Antonio, and Dallas---all over .500, all potential playoff teams, all (arguably) better than Toronto.

Collectively, they're 35 games above .500 (Toronto is one). In those five Sundays against Toronto, they're 1-4 (and losers of four straight).

Collectively, they average 102 points per game (Toronto allows 104). In those five Sundays against Toronto, they average 93.

Collectively, they shoot 46.5% from the floor (Overall, Toronto allows its opponents to shoot 46.3%). In those five Sundays against Toronto, they shot 42.5%.

Overall, Toronto is -55 in total rebounding this season. In those five Sundays against Western Conference opponents, they're +4.

So it looks as if Toronto does gain an advantage by playing against Western Conference teams early on Sundays. If you're skeptical, let's replay all those five games at 7 pm on Wednesdays, what do you think the numbers would look like then?

STAT OF THE DAY

Jose Calderon was a game-high +32 against Dallas on Sunday. He's better than Jarrett Jack, in case anyone was wondering.

Talkin' Turk

Wow, Raptor fans just lose their mind if there's no games to be played for a few days eh? Apparently, it's now time to trade Jose Calderon and Hedo Turkoglu. Really, Raptor fans? You're that enamoured with Jarrett Jack? Have all of you been fooled that much by the easiest part of Toronto's schedule? I can't spell this out anymore clearly:

It's easy to look like a good point guard against teams like Detroit, New Jersey, and New Orleans (when Chris Paul gets injured early in the game).

Let's just look at the past four games (keeping in mind that most of Calderon's minutes have come with the reserves):

CALDERON: 54% FG, 4.0 AST/TO, +6

JACK: 44% FG, 2.2 AST/TO, -18

Jose Calderon is a better player than Jarrett Jack. Let's just leave it at that.

Now, let's move on to the player Toronto fans have really been fretting over, Mr. Turkoglu. The big issue has been that Hedo has been complaining about not being a key part of the offence when Jack and Calderon are both in the lineup. Here's my response:

"You're lazy, Hedo. Don't blame your inactivity on other players or the coaching staff. Blame it on your diet. Blame it on your off-season. Blame it on your attitude. It's all on you."

Don't believe Hedo is lazy this year.... let's roll out the numbers:

CHARGES PER GAME

Previous 3 seasons: 0.15

This season: 0.03

STEALS PER GAME

Previous 3 seasons: 0.9

This season: 0.5

SHOTS AT THE RIM PER GAME

Previous 3 seasons: 3.6

This season: 2.0

FG% AT THE RIM

Previous 3 seasons: 57%

This season: 50%

Getting to the rim, finishing at the rim, taking charges, picking off passes... those are all skills that require a certain level of energy, athleticism, and effort. Turkoglu has regressed in all four of those areas this season.

Let's look at Turkoglu's year-over-year shot breakdown:

THIS SEASON

Rim - 15 feet: 4.2 FGA

16 feet & beyond: 7.9 FGA

LAST SEASON

Rim - 15 feet: 6.5 FGA

16 feet & beyond: 8.2 FGA

So, he's taking pretty much the same amount of long-range shots as he was last season. The only key difference is that he's taking much fewer close-range shots. Is that because he's becoming just a catch-and-shoot guy in this offence? Could be. I happen to believe there's so many opportunities for every player on the floor in this offence to drive, it's just an individual decision that's made. So whether he's just choosing not to drive, or he just doesn't have the ability to get inside anymore, he's doing it a lot less often this season.

HAVING SAID THAT...

The Raptors are still outscored by 5 points per 48 minutes when Turkoglu is on the bench. Regardless of his laziness, Toronto's other small forwards (Weems, Wright) are so bad (no offence), that the Raptors need Turkoglu, and they need to fix his attitude. They have no other choice.

Mail time re: Bosh

Big Chris wrote: What about Pau? Currently the only elite level PF with a championship ring. Should the fact that he is asked to shoot less for the sake of winning a championship count against him.I think Dirk is the best PF right now too... but I don't even know if Bosh is > than Gasol...

My Response: I have probably the exact same thoughts as "Big Chris" when it comes to where Gasol ranks. I stuck with only mentioning Nowitzki because I thought he was clearly a better player than Bosh, whereas with Gasol, I think it's an argument that can go one way or another. On another note, I also happen to think Gasol is more of a true 5, and is only playing PF for the sake of Andrew Bynum.

Chris wrote: You are all forgetting that the players who can arguably be called better than Bosh are 30 and over. Bosh is just entering his prime years. Dirk, Gasol and Garnett all play on better teams (both coaching wise and talent wise) so it is difficult to compare them. It's easy to say Dirk/Gasol are the better players but remember Dirk has won as many championships as Bosh has (with a better team) and Gasol needed Kobe to get out of the first round.

My Response: First and foremost, I swear I'm not the one writing these comments (if I was going to respond to my own blog, I would make up names, not use my own). Part of the reason I said Dirk is a better player than Bosh is because Dirk has produced at this level for years (i.e. even when he was Bosh's age). I also think it's hard to hold Dirk's lack of titles against him for a variety of reasons (the refs stole it from him in 2006; he plays in such a ridiculously competitive conference, etc...). I think the supporting cast (when you're talking about Gasol) definitely is a valid point. Who knows what Bosh could do with a player like Kobe on his team, however, I still don't think he'd ever be as good of a playmaker as Gasol or Nowitzki even with a better supporting cast. I just don't think he has the basketball sense.

Khandor wrote: Chris, I'm in full agreement with your take on Doug Smith's claim that Chris Bosh is the best PF in the NBA. Although CB4 is a terrific basketball player ... at the Power Forward position, specifically, he is not a better player than, at least, the following list of individuals:

Kevin Garnett (when healthy)
Dirk Nowitzki
Pau Gasol
Carlos Boozer
Josh Smith
Chris Bosh[tie] / Luis Scola [tie] / David West [tie]

My Response: I've already talked about Nowitzki and Gasol. Garnett hasn't been healthy for two years, he doesn't belong on this list. Carlos Boozer isn't even the best power forward on his team. Defensively, Josh Smith is probably the best power forward in the game, but his offensive game is non-existent. Luis Scola can't jump 6 inches off the ground. David West would be a 12/8 guy if he didn't have Chris Paul as his point guard. Khandor, you obviously have an IQ for this game, however, posts like this don't provide you with much credibility.

A letter to Doug Smith...

Who wrote in his blog the other day that Chris Bosh is the best power forward in the NBA:

"Doug, The "Chris Bosh = best PF in the NBA" argument sounds a bit too much like homerism to me. Statistically, Dirk Nowitzki averages more points, assists, blocks, and steals per game than Bosh, while also turning the ball over less frequently. Qualitatively, Nowitzki plays on a better team in a tougher conference, just has better basketball sense, and most importantly, Nowitzki has shown he can play at this level consistently, not just in a contract year. Listen, I'm as happy as the next Raptor fan to see Bosh playing at this new level (even if it's just because he wants to guarantee a max contract), but I think it's too much of a reach to call him the best power forward in the game. Let's just call him best in the East."

A trip down (recent) memory lane

This definitely isn't my bit, but unfortunately I don't remember whose it is... but you know how people are all about snapping pictures and then immediately going through the digital images on their camera. "Ohhhh, look at how young we looked," they'd say as they looked at a picture taken 5 minutes before.

The term is "instant nostalgia."

Well, we're going to have a little instant nostalgia today as we catch up (figuratively) with the lost souls from the 2008-09 Raptors.

QUINCY DOUBY

Douby played in a few games at the end of the season for the Raptors, showing a bit of promise and actually came to this year's camp with a shot at making the team as an extra guard. That (obviously) didn't happen.

This is pretty funny. Douby is playing in the Turkish Basketball League for a team called "Darussafaka Cooper Tires." They started the year 0-12 before winning their first game in the new year (Douby had 15 points in the win). He is 2nd on the team in scoring and leads in assists.

The lesson: Don't try to win a Turkish Basketball League championship with Quincy Douby as your lead guard.

NATHAN JAWAI

Jawai was the 08-09 version of Reggie Evans. The big, burly body in street clothes on the bench. Jawai is actually a contributing member of the Minnesota Timberwolves (which is kind of like saying you're a contributing member of Enron).

He's appeared in 28 games, starting 2... and he even racked up 16 points and 6 rebounds in one of those games.

JAKE VOSKUHL

Jake was a late cut from the Mavs training camp. He hasn't caught on anywhere, but has continued to work out for teams, hoping to catch another gig where he plays once every two or three weeks and still manages to earn a $500,000 per season paycheque (see: Patrick O'Bryant).

HASSAN ADAMS

Adams was traded by the Raptors last season to the Clippers where he was immediately waived (that's a bit of kick in the pants I'd say).

He then played two games with "Vojvodina" in the Adriatic League (if I had any idea what that was, I'd provide you with more context, but alas) before leaving to head back home to America.

I literally cannot find one piece of information that says Adams is playing basketball anywhere this season.

WILL SOLOMON

Bryan Colangelo really upsold everyone on Will Solomon didn't he? We really thought Toronto's backup point guard problems were solved the way Colangelo raved about Solomon's play in Europe.

He ended up starting 9 games in Toronto when Calderon was injured, with the high point being a 15 point, 11 assist performance against the Heat.

He was also traded mid-season.

Solomon signed with Turkish club Fenerbahce, but was released for insubordinate behaviour (or so Google translate tells me). Which brings me to my next player...

ROKO UKIC

(quick timeline: they traded Roko to Milwaukee after they signed Jack... Milwaukee released Roko just a week or so ago)

I will never understand why they signed Will Solomon because I thought Roko Ukic had the ability to grow into the role as backup point guard (and maybe more). Consider:

Jan. 12, 2009 - Playing on the road in Boston without Calderon, the Raps force overtime before falling to the Celtics. Facing Rajon Rondo most of his time on the floor, Ukic hits 7-of-12 shots for 16 points (with just one turnover).

Feb. 11, 2009 - Without Calderon and Bosh, the Raptors defeat Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and the Spurs 91-89. Ukic goes off for 22 points in 29 minutes, and has just one turnover.

Mar. 27, 2009 - Backing up Calderon, Ukic racks up 10 assists (compared to just one turnover) in a win over the Thunder.

And then this season:

Dec. 9, 2009 - Ukic puts up 17 points (with just one turnover) in 25 minutes as the Bucks blow out the Raptors.

I will never understand why they didn't just give Ukic time to develop. If they had, the Raptors don't need to sign Jack to his overpriced contract. The point guard situation is settled, and maybe they spend the mid-level somewhere else where it was more needed (i.e. wing play).

Anyways, as I said, Solomon led into the Ukic update so well because after Fenerbahce released Solomon, they signed Ukic as his replacement. See, a Turkish team understands Ukic is better than Solomon, why didn't the Raptors realize this?

JOEY GRAHAM

Oh Joey, Joey, Joey. Untapped potential. Space cadet. Those are the terms that come to mind with this guy.

But he's bounced back nicely in a new setting this year. Graham has appeared in 26 games with the Nuggets this season backing up star forward Carmelo Anthony. He's even had a chance to start with 'Melo injured. He peaked last week with a 20 point, 8 rebound performance against the Warriors (but in fairness, I think everyone in the NBA has had a 20 point game against the Warriors this year).

On the things I never thought I'd hear list: "Graham earned praise from head coach George Karl for his hard work during Anthony's absence."

KRIS HUMPHRIES

Hump was traded to Dallas in that convoluted, four-team sign-and-trade over the summer. Always a fan favourite, Hump actually became somewhat of a per-minute, statistical wunderkind as well (look back at my previous posts or read some of Hollinger's work on him).

This season, his best performance on a stacked Dallas team was probably a double-double in just 22 minutes of court time against the Pacers.

He was traded to the Nets just last week.

To most people, that would either serve as an indictment of their play, or as just a very depressing piece of news, but for Hump, I don't think either applies.

Because of the presence of Marion (more on him later), Howard, Dirk, Dampier, and others in Dallas (and because of Dallas' fondness for small ball), Hump wasn't going to get the opportunity to play very often.

And the biggest reason why New Jersey traded for him is actually a very big compliment: They know he will play hard, even on a 3-34 team. Anyways, he will make his debut tonight, likely being the first big off the bench, backing up Yi Jianlian and Brook Lopez. Here's to hoping for some early foul trouble for Yi!

SHAWN MARION

Shawn Marion's season averages in points, rebounds, and minutes this season in Dallas are all at their lowest levels since his rookie season in Phoenix.

You would expect, given his history, that this would lead to some serious pouting from Marion.

However, Marion is being told he is the key to Dallas' defence. Mark Cuban is proclaiming that Marion should be first-team all-NBA defence this season.

He's averaging about one steal and one block per game, and has helped the Mavs jump from 17th to 7th in defensive efficiency. All that being said, the biggest surprise is still that he's not pouting.

JERMAINE O'NEAL

There's not much to be said for Jermaine. I think we all know he's starting at the five spot in Miami. I'll give you just a quick statistical rundown to see if he's doing anything differently in Miami than he was in Toronto:

You probably won't remember, but when O'Neal first came to Toronto, I expressed amazement at the fact that he had never shot better than 50% from the floor, considering his size and athleticism. Well apparently, having Dwyane Wade on your team gets you a bunch of easy buckets. O'Neal is shooting a career-high 54% from the floor this season.

His other numbers are all fairly similar, except his usage rate (an approximation of how much the ball is in his hands) is well down, implying that the Heat aren't really posting him up all that much.

JASON KAPONO

Our boy JK is having another tough year... a 3rd straight season of declining numbers since his career year in Miami. His three-point percentage is down to 40%, and he's playing just 14 minutes per game in Philly.

He's actually not even getting off the bench some nights (moreso lately). He can still light it up every once in awhile (20 pts on 8 of 11 shooting in 29 minutes against the Celtics back in late November), however, a player like Kapono needs a point guard like Jose Calderon. Instead in Philly, he has me-first PGs like Lou Williams and Allen Iverson (hence the struggles).

And he probably won't see any good court time for the foreseeable future. The Sixers GM is getting quoted in the press that he'd like to see the team's defence improve, and Raptor fans know you don't turn to Jason Kapono when you need good defence.

JAMARIO MOON

Jamario is currently out with an abdominal strain that isn't considered too serious. He's been coming off the bench in Cleveland, and doing fairly well. Statistically, it's amazing how little his game has changed going from Toronto to Miami to Cleveland.

You would think maybe he would shoot less on the better teams, or maybe take less threes. You would think SOMETHING would have to be different. But Jamario just keeps on keeping on, so to speak. Consider:

From the start of last season to now, here are some key per 36 minute stats for Jamario on each of the three teams:

4 FG in Tor

4 FG in Mia

4 FG in Cle

47% FG in Tor

46% FG in Mia

45% FG in Cle

7 Reb in Tor

6 Reb in Mia

7 Reb in Cle

10 Pts in Tor

10 Pts in Mia

10 Pts in Cle

I used to lose my mind that Moon didn't just put in the work to become a better shooter. But if playing with Wade and Lebron doesn't push you to improve offensively, then maybe nothing will.

That being said, Moon has drawn praise in Cleveland for his defence, and he's undertaken one of the toughest jobs in basketball: trying to keep Cavs fans from losing their mind when Lebron is off the floor. Moon is one of the few players on the team that doesn't really benefit from playing with Lebron because most of Moon's minutes come when Lebron is off the floor.

ANTHONY PARKER

And we'll end with my favourite former Raptor, the guy who would be helping this current edition of the team the most: Anthony Parker.

"He's been great."

"He's shooting the heck out of the ball."

"He's making (Lebron & Shaq)'s jobs easier."

Those are just some of the things being said about A.P. this season in Cleveland. The consummate pro, Parker has started all 40 games for the 30-10 Cavs. His counting numbers are all at their lowest levels since returning to the NBA in 2006-07, but that doesn't really matter. Here's the only number Cleveland coaches and fans and players probably care about: .475. It's Parker's three-point field goal percentage, and as long as he keeps banging home those threes from the corner, everyone will be happy. Incidentally, his three-point percentage currently ranks third in the NBA. He also ranks 2nd on the team in charges drawn.

One funny note: Parker was somehow labelled as a good defender while here in Toronto (a claim I always disagreed with), so it was funny to read some things about how Parker had to learn a lot of new defensive principles in Cleveland. "He's getting better," "He had to learn some things when he first got here," etc... were just some of the things I read about Parker's defence. Shows what we know here in Toronto eh?

*************

So what was all of this for (other than a big procrastinating session on my part)? I think the biggest thing I want people to take from this is: Wow, that's a lot of bodies. Meaning, there's a lot of new bodies with this season's Raptors, and that it will take time for this team to really come together.

Oh, and I also wanted to point out how bad last year's team really was.

Unrealistic Trades... the lifeblood of the internet

Graham Smith said...

Dear Caldeford, I was reading Raps Republic this morning and they had an article proposing at trade: Calderon and Derozan to Philly for Iguodala and Holiday. I discussed this trade with my brother and we both agreed that we'd pull the trigger on this deal. What do you think of this potential trade? Please enlighten us with some additional statistical knowledge to justify the deal. Thanks. Keep up the good work. Great Blog!

Well first off, tell me my blog is great, and I'll answer your question any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Here is my additional statistical knowledge:

Yes, it would be a slam dunk win for the Raptors, but there's 0% chance of this deal ever happening. In order for a trade to happen, there has to be motivation for both sides, and I can't see why Philly would be motivated to trade its best player for a point guard (when they already have Lou Williams and Iverson on the roster).

On another note, Graham's note prompted me to head on over to this "Raps Republic" for a quick glance.... who are these people? If you listened to the people that left messages on this site, they'd have you believe a Raps poo-poo platter of Weems, Belinelli, and some other junk (along with a first rounder of course) could get you Caron Butler??? Are they insane??? These people must not read my stuff I assume since the messages I get are always of the utmost quality. I can only assume that its the intelligencia of Toronto that read Caldeford... all you investment bankers, and doctors and such...

In Michael Grange's latest post, he wrote the following: "There is more meat on the bone here – anyone care to figure out the Raptors defensive rating for their past eight games? Or their past 16? – but it will have to do for now."

Since Mr. Grange complimented me in the same post, I thought I would do the dirty work for him, and sent him the following:

"Just for you, Mike: Raps defensive efficiency over the past 8 games (7-1 rec): 101.1

That would rank 7th in the NBA if it were held over the course of the entire season. Now before all Raptor fans start patting themselves on their proverbial backs, let's put this number in context:

Here is the list of teams they've played during this 7-1 stretch (with their offensive efficiency rank in parantheses):

NJ (30), NO (20), DET (24), DET (24), CHA (27), BOS (8)*, SA (5), ORL (7)

That's an average offensive efficiency rank of 18th in the NBA (and that's not even taking into account the * I put beside Boston for them not having three of their four best offensive players). In the first 28 games of the season, Toronto's opponents had an average offensive efficiency rank of 14th (and 16 of those 28 games came on the road, which is historically a tougher place to play defence than at home).

So yes, they've defended better, but a lot of that has to do with the quality of competition."

THE BEST IS YET TO COME?

So in my message to Mr. Grange, I preached "context" to Raps fans, but looking ahead, the context looks pretty damn good as well (I'm pretty sure that doesn't make sense). Consider the following points about Toronto's schedule heading into the all-star break (16 games):

• The average offensive efficiency rank of Toronto's opponents is 19th.
• They don't play more than 2 straight games on the road
• They play only 5 games against teams with winning records
• 4 of those 5 games come at home
• Toronto is 13-3 against teams with losing records this season
• Toronto is 4-4 at home against winning teams this season

I guess what I'm saying is, perhaps when we were all ready to jump on a proverbial cliff after seeing the first month or two of the season, we should have given the tough schedule more credit for Toronto's lacklustre play. Because it seems like chances are Toronto will walk into the all-star break anywhere from two to six games above .500 with 30 games left in the season.

Three weeks ago, if I had suggested the Raptors would have a 28-24 record at the all-star break, I'm pretty sure I would have lost about 90% of my readership (note: 90% equals 4.5 readers).

More from Hoopdata

Question from Sivart:

• "Who are some of the top "playmakers" Toronto could look to trade for (at a reasonable cost)? One of the guys I thought the raptors should have targeted, was Matt Barnes, not sure where he ranks among the playmakers but it seems like when he is on the court he makes things happen, yet nobody ever seems to really want him."

Answer: First, about Matt Barnes... he averages 2.05 defensive plays per 40 minutes, which isn't very high. As for who Toronto could trade for: Well, there are only 2 players in the NBA who average over one steal, one block, and one charge per 40 minutes of action. The first is Jared Jeffries from the Knicks. I doubt however, the Raptors (or any other team) would be very interested in his exorbitant contract. The second is Anthony Randolph, the freakishly athletic forward from Golden State who stat heads have been salivating over ever since his amazing summer league performances. Could he be had? Probably not, but that is someone who would fit in as a backup off the bench rather well.

Comment from Toma:

• "This is a prime example of why stats do not tell the story. If you look at the very database you referenced it shows that GSW is the best at defensive plays but allow the most points in the league while PORT has the same league worst defensive play (12.5) as TOR but are 4th best in opp scorong (sp). I love stats but whenever a stat is used to back up an arguement or premise, almost inevitably, further examination of the stats will show that it doesn't mean a damn thing and normally doesn't even back up what it was intended... If we are going to use a stat to back up a premise, it should not be so easy to show that defensive plays as a stat mean nothing."

First of all, it's a very valid point that Toma makes. However, I think there are two counter points to his argument.

Re: Portland - They had two significant playmakers at the back of their defence (Oden and Pryzbilla). They funnelled all of the opposing offence to these guys hoping for a blocked shot or at least a challenged or altered shot. I think that's why their numbers are low, because Portland's other players didn't have to make plays, and because Oden and Pryzbilla were making plays don't show up in this metric (altered shots).

Re: Golden State - It's one thing to have a few playmakers on defence, it's another to have everyone on the floor overplaying passing lanes and generally playing reckless defence in the hopes of picking off passes. The Warriors have to do this because they play so small all the time (Curry, Ellis in the backcourt... Maggette playing the occasional power forward, etc...).

So, I don't think Toronto would be better off if everyone on the team were a go-for-broke defender. However, I do think they would be better if perhaps their shooting guard was more of a defensive playmaker (see below):

CHARGES DRAWN PER 40 MINUTES (AMONG SHOOTING GUARDS)

1. MANU GINOBILI 0.77
2. RAJA BELL 0.76
3. QUENTIN RICHARDSON 0.65
4. DAHNTAY JONES 0.62

T-32. DEMAR DEROZAN 0.28