Lost in all the incessant chatter about Chris Bosh's effort level and Hedo Turkoglu's parting shots is the key question of the off-season (which I'm sure people will get to eventually): Can this team be even reasonably good?
While I won't fully answer until closer to the start of the season, I've been thinking a lot about "how" to answer that question.
First, I want to talk about the conventional wisdom: The CV says without Chris Bosh, this team will be led by a one-dimensional (that dimension being offence) post player and will be absolutely awful defensively.
Here's my question: Wasn't last year's team led by a one-dimensional post player and weren't they absolutely awful defensively?
My point is this: I think any frontcourt combination the Raptors throw out there this season will be better defensively than the Bosh-Bargnani duo we saw for the past few seasons.
My secondary point is this: I think any questions about how good this team can be this season revolve around Andrea Bargnani's ability to shoulder a heavier load. This is obviously a cliche angle that will be followed by all the conventional media outlets, but sometimes the obvious answer is the right one.
Here's where I differ from the CV: I think Bargnani can handle his new role.
STAT OF THE DAY
Here is a list of 7-footers that have averaged over 17 pts per game in a season before turning 25 (listed in chronological order):
Andrea Bargnani
Brook Lopez
Yao Ming
Pau Gasol
Dirk Nowitzki
Shaquille O'Neal
David Robinson
Kevin Duckworth
Brad Daugherty
Hakeem Olajuwon
Patrick Ewing
Ralph Sampson
Joe Barry Caroll
Bill Cartwright
Artis Gilmore
Elmore Smith
Kareeem Abdul-Jabbar
Wilt Chamberlain
A few caveats before I move along with my point: Yes, there are many players who were probably 6'10 or 6'11 who also averaged 17 pts per game before they hit 25 years of age, I understand. Secondly, I understand 16 or so of the players listed above are better defensive players than Bargnani.
All that being said, the point still stands: As a young 7-footer that can score, Bargnani is an extremely rare commodity.
QUICK ASIDE OF THE DAY
There's an interesting phenomenon that exists in Toronto and I'm not sure it exists elsewhere. While most cities love to coddle their young players and love watching them grow, Toronto seems to be the exact opposite (unless said player happens to be wearing a Leaf jersey---I'm talking to you Nazem Kadri). Toronto fans and media love to jump all over young Blue Jays and Raptors if they don't fall into that 1% of their league that shines right from the start.
My (least) favourite example:
Chris Carpenter was a supremely talented pitcher who was rushed to the major leagues. Despite the fast track, he still fought his way to a .500 career record with the Jays when his contract was up for renewal following an injury-plagued 2002 campaign. Though Carpenter would have to miss all of the following season due to injury, he wasn't asking for much money to re-sign. However, Toronto had had enough. Get him out of town. Good riddance. Career underachiever! Well, from 2004 to today pitching for the St. Louis Cardinals, Carpenter has a .745 win%, which is best in all of baseball over that time.
BACK TO BARGNANI
So how does Chris Carpenter relate to Andrea Bargnani? Well, we love to focus on everything Bargnani hasn't accomplished to date: He isn't a ferocious rebounder, he doesn't like the low post, he has yet to learn how to breath with his mouth closed, etc... But Raptor fans need to realize what they actually have: A uniquely talented, young, post player locked up in a long-term, reasonably priced contract.
As I said earlier, I think he can handle the heavier load, and here's one of the biggest reasons why:
STAT OF THE DAY #2
Andrea Bargnani
Fouls per 36 minutes
2006-07 4.0 (6.8)
2007-08 4.1 (6.3)
2008-09 3.6 (7.5)
2009-10 2.8 (7.7)
In other words, he's learning how to stay on the floor. The number in brackets, by the way, is a summation of his rebounds & blocks per 36 minutes. In other words, though he's fouling less often each season, he's actually increasing his defensive activity at the same time. This is all progress.
Listen, end of the day, I'm not coming out and saying this is a playoff team. But I'm also not saying they're necessarily going to be awful. All I'm saying is Andrea Bargnani is actually better than most people give him credit for...
(note: I hate ending a sentence, let alone an entire post, with a word like "for"... but I'm not really sure how to change that last paragraph, and I'm also pretty hungry... so there)