Turn (over) me up some! (inside joke for the Woychyshyn brothers)

So, the Raptors are a bad team. This, I understand, is not earth-shattering news. I suspect it's not even glass-shattering news (or news at all for that matter).

But, looking at the numbers, can we figure out why they're a bad team? Naked eye observation tells me they give up a bunch of easy buckets, and have to work too hard for their own. But I'm not sure how accurate that is.

While looking through some numbers, I came across this surprising stat (I'll call it my stat of the day):

STAT OF THE DAY

Toronto Raptors Turnover Pct
Since 2000-01

2010-11 14.8
2003-04 14.1
2001-02 13.6
2002-03 13.6
2006-07 13.0

Putting that into words, the Raptors are turning the ball over more often than any other season since the turn of the century. This is (somewhat) surprising, given that Jose Calderon is back as Toronto's full-time starting point guard, but less surprising if you think about the numbers just a little bit. Consider a few factors:

1. Calderon's turnover rate is at its highest point since his rookie season.

How much of this can be attributed to Calderon? Tough to say. I would submit that part of this is reflective of inexperienced post players (Bargnani, Johnson, Evans, Davis, Dorsey) not knowing how to properly seal, pick & roll, etc...

2. Linas Kleiza travels about once every 2.4 minutes

This number might be an approximation (and by approximation, I mean exaggeration)

3. Chris Bosh ain't walkin' thru that door

Turnover Pct This Season

Joey Dorsey 28.1
Reggie Evans 20.5
Amir Johnson 12.7

Chris Bosh's career turnover pct - 11.0

You see what I'm getting at. Say what you will about Mr. Bosh, but for someone who had the ball in his hands an awful lot, he didn't cough it up very often (is that because he never passed the ball with any type of degree of difficulty - well, yes). And Mr. Bosh's minutes have been replaced (for the most part) with a trio of players with a (minutes-weighted) turnover percentage of 17.5.

That probably explains the turnovers more than anything.

OTHER NOTABLE TEAM STATS

Two things I came across that interested me -

94.5 Pace Factor - highest ever (prev. high - 95-96)

I'm not sure if we've talked about this (I'm pretty sure we have), but Pace has no correlation with winning whatsoever. Having said that, teams that go into seasons knowing they are less talented than the majority of the league usually try one of two strategies -

1. Either really slow the pace down, make it a game of as few possessions as possible (thereby increasing the role luck plays over the course of a game)... think Kevin O'Neill's Raptors;

2. Or really fast the pace up (if "slow down" is a term, shouldn't "fast up" be one as well?), and hope even though your team isn't as talented as most, that at least you can teach effort, fitness, etc... and hope sprinting can lead to points/wins.

Now, my eyes tell me the first strategy is much more efficient (and likely to succeed) with less talented players. Less talented players are usually less athletic, and less athletic doesn't usually work when you fast the pace up. I also think, historically, the first option has been more successful. Think of the Milwaukee Bucks last season, or the 95-96 Florida Panthers (oh, this isn't a hockey blog?).

Anyways, the Raptors are clearly trying out the second strategy. But there's a reason why this will NEVER work for this team:

32.7 3pt Pct - worst ever (prev. low - 34.1 - 98-99)

First of all, no matter what pace you play, if you're shooting this poorly from the three-point line, you better be damn good somewhere else, and the Raptors don't fit that mold.

But, if you're trying to play an up-tempo game when you know you're outmanned, that strategy will ONLY work if you can kick it out for lots of wide open threes in transition.

Consider this:

Pace above 94, 3pt pct below 33%
Since 1995-96

02-03 Cle 17 wins
01-02 GS 21 wins
00-01 GS 17 wins
99-00 GS 19 wins
99-00 Sac 44 wins
98-99 Sac 44 wins (proj. win total)
96-97 Phi 22 wins

Few things here -

1. There's a reason this hasn't happened in 8 years. If you're playing at a fast pace, you're shooting the ball well from outside. If you're not, your coach adjusts and slows the pace down. In other words, there's no reason in rushing down the court to take contested 2s.

2. The average win total of those teams - 26. Toronto is on pace for 28.

3. The only playoff team on that list - The late '90s Kings. In other words, you can play at a fast pace and shoot poorly from 3pt land........ IF you have two of the best passing big men of the last 30 years (Divac & Webber) on your team getting you layup after layup.

My closing advice to the Raptors:

I know why they won't do a Kevin O'Neill / Scott Skiles type of transformation. That type of basketball isn't (necessarily) fun to watch. But, if you're going to keep up with this pace of play, please find some three point shooters to throw on your wings. This current collection of DeRozan (10%), Weems (26%), Kleiza (32%), and Barbosa (34%) just isn't good enough.

I've told you the good...

Now it's time for Bargnani the Bad....

Let's kick it off right away with the patented T.Jose Caldeford STAT OF THE DAY (TM)

STAT OF THE DAY

FEWEST ASSISTS PER GAME
AMONG 20 PPG SCORERS THIS SEASON

Dwight Howard 1.1
Andrea Bargnani 1.4
Jason Richardson 1.5
Michael Beasley 1.6
Kevin Love 2.1

Quick asides:
- First, can we get rid of that "Kevin Love is such a great passer" argument until he bumps up his assist totals a bit?
- Jason Richardson is the only guard on this list... He really is a chucker.

So, 1st point out of the way: Andrea isn't a very good passer.

Next:

ANDREA BARGNANI SHOT DISTRIBUTION
(courtesy 82games.com)

3% dunks/tips
16% close range
81% jump shots

So, 2nd point out of the way: Despite taking fewer threes (as mentioned in my previous post), the 7-foot Bargnani is still predominantly a jump shooter.

Next:

RAPTORS THIS SEASON
(courtesy 82games.com)

WITH BARGNANI ON THE FLOOR: 108 pts / 100 possessions
& ON THE BENCH: 111 pts / 100 possessions

WITH BARGNANI ON THE FLOOR: 114 pts allowed / 100 possessions
& ON THE BENCH: 102 pts allowed / 100 possessions

WITH BARGNANI ON THE FLOOR: Raps get 52% of avail rebounds
& ON THE BENCH: Raps get 55% of avail rebounds

In summation: Toronto's offence is 3 pts better per 100 possessions when Bargnani's on the bench; Toronto's defence is 12 pts better per 100 possessions when Bargnani's on the bench; and Toronto's rebounding is 3 percent better when Bargnani's on the bench.

Wow.

So, 3rd point out of the way: The Raptors are better offensively, defensively, and on the glass when Bargnani is on the bench (maybe those are my 3rd, 4th, & 5th points).

In another (final) summation:

1st point: Despite being the team's focal point on offence, Bargnani is not a good passer.
2nd point: Despite being a 7-footer (and having a pretty soft touch inside), Bargnani remains a jump shooter.
3rd point: Toronto is better offensively with him on the bench.
4th point: Toronto is better defensively with him on the bench.
5th point: Toronto is better on the glass with him on the bench.

That's ugly.

I have to say, these numbers are more up my alley when it comes to the stuff that I "buy" so to speak (compared to the pro-Bargnani stuff I was spewing out a few days back). So, even though I've been pretty pro-Bargnani so far this season, that probably ends tonight.

The toughest players in the NBA to defend...

Creates matchup problems. Shoots over smaller players, drives on bigger players. An ability to get to--and convert from--the free throw line. Can score from anywhere on the floor.

That is how I would describe players who are tough to guard, and I want to focus particularly on that last statement: Can score from anywhere on the floor.

Hoopdata.com tracks shot locations from five different ranges: At the rim; inside 10 feet; 10-15 feet; 16-23 feet; & 3pt. It's great to see that Blake Griffin leads the NBA with 4.2 FG at the rim (R. Westbrook is 2nd at 3.9!), or that Kyle Lowry is shooting 10% on long 2s this season (10%, wtf!).

Anyways, converting that statement "score from anywhere on the floor" and using it with this data, I came up with the following question:

How many players in the NBA are hitting at least one shot per game from each of the five ranges listed above ?

Here they are:

Kobe Bryant
Kevin Durant
Steve Nash
Rudy Gay

and....

Andrea Bargnani

I like seeing this, and it reaffirms something I said last season, that Bargnani is a much more natural scorer than Chris Bosh. That offence comes easier to him than it does to Bosh.

Quick aside: If you're wondering what's changed about Bargnani's game this season, how this was made possible... this evolution of his scoring... well, he's on pace to take the fewest three-pointers of his career. Even though he's still connecting at the same rate of his career pace (38%), he's still only averaging 3.1 attempts per game (down from a career-high 4.1 last season).

So, I'm comfortable saying Andrea Bargnani is one of the toughest players in the NBA to defend, and I don't think I should be laughed out of a room for saying it!

Andrea the All-Star?

Walt Williams, Keon Clark, Oliver Miller, John Wallace, Acie Earl... those names echo through the hallowed halls of the ACC... legends in their own right... and now, you can add Andrea Bargnani's name to that legendary list.

Seriously, on Friday night, Bargnani became just the 16th player in Raptor history to put up a 25+ pt, 12+ reb game (something Chris Bosh did 53 times).

The thing I liked about his game: When OKC went small in the 4th, it took Bargnani about 6 minutes to realize, "hey, if I just go down to the low block, crash the boards and--generally speaking--act like a 7-footer, I should be able to control this game." Granted, I didn't like that it took him 6 minutes to figure this out, but just the fact that he figured it out at all is progress (baby steps).

So, here's my question today (because I think I heard either a radio or television voice bring it up last night), and it's not rooted in the type of numbers I usually look at (because, frankly, Bargnani doesn't look good in that light). But here's the question: Is Bargnani an Eastern Conference all-star at centre?

Let's get one qualifier out of the way immediately: The only way he has a remote shot is if Dwight Howard wins the fan voting. If Shaq wins the fan vote, that means Howard has to be a reserve, all but guaranteeing Bargnani would be out of the loop.

Next, let's take his one real positive (his scoring) and put it in context:

He's averaging 20.9 points per game, as a 7-footer. Is that rare? Here's the list of 7-footers that have averaged at least that amount over the last 15 years:

Patrick Ewing
Yao Ming
Dirk Nowitzki
Shaquille O'Neal
Hakeem Olajuwon
David Robinson

So, what he's doing is pretty impressive/unique considering his size & position.

Moving on, let's assume that Shaq won't win the fan vote, and Dwight Howard gets in as the starter. Who are the candidates to be the reserve?

Andrea Bargnani: 21 pts, 6 reb per game, 38% 3pt
Roy Hibbert: 16 pts, 9 reb, 3 ast per game
Al Horford: 16 pts, 10 reb per game, 58% fg
Brook Lopez: 19 pts, 6 reb, 1.6 blk per game
Joakim Noah: 15 pts, 12 reb, 1.4 blk per game
*listed in alpha order

(Andrew Bogut has only played 12 games, and is only averaging 11 pts per game in those 12)

Let's get one thing out of the way immediately: I'm not on the Brook Lopez bandwagon. To put it in perspective, he has a lower field goal percentage than Bargnani, despite the fact that he doesn't shoot threes! And they have the exact same rebound rate!

Let's also scratch Roy Hibbert off the list. He's having a nice season, and we're all surprised at his playmaking ability, but it's just a year or two too early for him.

But even if you knock off those two, that still means Bargnani would have to be picked over Joakim Noah and Al Horford. Those are two players whose contributions to the game go beyond the box score. They defend well, set hard screens, alter shots, etc.... And ultimately, I can't see the coaches looking past that when it comes time to pick reserves.

However, let's go back to Bargnani's 20 pts per game as a 7-footer, and add one more wrinkle, something I'll call my stat of the day.

STAT OF THE DAY

20+ PTS PER GAME
7-0 OR TALLER
25 YRS OF AGE OR YOUNGER

It's something that's happened just 38 times in NBA history, done by just 14 players. Here is the list (in alpha order):

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Joe Barry Carroll
Bill Cartwright
Wilt Chamberlain
Brad Daugherty
Patrick Ewing
Pau Gasol
Yao Ming
Dirk Nowitzki
Shaquille O'Neal
Hakeem Olajuwon
David Robinson
Ralph Sampson