Sunday, November 27, 2011

Five-point plan

Most observers of the NBA in this city are already treating this season as a write-off. They say the most important part of this season for the Raptors should be securing a high draft pick for the 2012 Draft. I disagree, and a look into the recent past is my main argument.

The Raptors won 16 games in the 1997-98 season. Their leading scorer was John Wallace. Heading into a lockout-shortened season, the Raptors didn't simply wave the white flag and plan for the next draft, here is what they did:
  • Drafted Vince Carter
  • Traded 2 first-round picks for 36-year old centre Kevin Willis
  • Traded Marcus Camby to the Knicks for 36-year old power forward Charles Oakley
Then general manager Glen Grunwald identified young pieces to build around (Tracy McGrady, Doug Christie, Alvin Williams), then added 3 starters through the draft and trade routes. Think about the backlash if Toronto traded two first-rounders for an aging centre now... and then consider those two picks in '98 ended up being Bryce Drew and Mirsad Turkcan.

If there was anything to be learned from the 1998-99 season, it was the opportunity it provided for young teams. A 23-year old Allen Iverson led the league in scoring. 22-year old Tim Duncan led San Antonio to its first NBA title. And the young, upstart Raptors became the most exciting team in the league, finishing with a surprising 23-27 record.

Glen Grunwald could have tanked that season, and geared up for a high pick in the '99 draft. In fact, that was the exact route taken by the Chicago Bulls in the post-Jordan era. Chicago got that first overall pick in '99 (Elton Brand), and it still took them six seasons to post a winning record. Instead, Grunwald did everything he could to compete, laying the foundation for three consecutive playoff seasons in the years ahead.

What do I take from this look into the past: There's an inherent, immeasurable quality that veterans bring to a young team. DeMar DeRozan, Ed Davis, and Andrea Bargnani could benefit greatly from seeing how players from winning teams operate on a day-to-day basis.

No season should be over before it begins.

And with that, here's a five-point plan to (immediately) improve the Raptors:

Toronto has 10 players under contract, here is their depth chart:

STARTING FIVE
PG: Jose Calderon, Jerryd Bayless
SG: DeMar DeRozan,
SF: James Johnson,
PF: Ed Davis,
C: Andrea Bargnani

BENCH
Jerryd Bayless, Leandro Barbosa, Linas Kleiza, Amir Johnson, Solomon Alabi

(note: Sonny Weems signed a contract in Europe that did not have an out-clause if the NBA returned, so he is not playing this season with Toronto)

Action #1. Use amnesty clause on Leandro Barbosa

Barbosa is a player (one of many) that doesn't fit into Dwayne Casey's vision of a defensive-minded team. He's also a back-up guard making $7 million this season. That cap space could be better used elsewhere.

Action #2. Move Linas Kleiza to the end of the bench

When he was signed as a free-agent, Kleiza was marketed as a combo forward with good size and good shooting skills. Instead, he shot 44% from the field, 29% from three-point land, and 63% from the line. 16 players racked up at least 100 minutes for Toronto last season, and Kleiza's 10.1 PER ranked dead last among those 16.

He's also coming off microfracture surgery (a process with varying degrees of success). This team wants to be fast and athletic, Kleiza is neither.

Action #3. Sign two defensive-minded wing players (one, or both that can preferably shoot from the outside)

The NBA is filled with players who are nearly impossible to guard on the perimeter. Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade are just a few. The best defenders don't necessarily stop these players, but they make things as difficult as can be for them. These defenders challenge all jumpers, take away favourite moves, and make stars work to get open.

Luckily, there are many options on the free agent market, including Shane Battier, Grant Hill, DeShawn Stevenson, Tayshaun Prince, Josh Howard Andrei Kirilenko, and Jared Jeffries.

The dream pickup would be Battier, but he's the type of player a championship team will be salivating over.

Action #4. Sign a defensive-minded post player

I wrote this yesterday, but it bears mentioning again: Here are the 8 starting centres for the teams that made the conference semi-finals last season:
  • Joel Anthony
  • Andrew Bynum
  • Tyson Chandler
  • Jason Collins
  • Marc Gasol
  • Joakim Noah
  • Jermaine O'Neal
  • Kendrick Perkins
The obvious theme is defence. The point you can extrapolate from that list is this: You can't win in the playoffs with Andrea Bargnani as your starting centre.

As I wrote yesterday, acquiring Tyson Chandler or Greg Oden would be a huge (unlikely) coup for Toronto, while a Joel Przybilla signing would be a nice consolation prize. Here are two other free agents that could fit:
  • Jeff Foster: 9-year vet moves very well, and would greatly help on rotations, and pick-and-roll defence
  • Jason Collins: No one defends Dwight Howard better than Collins. According to 82games.com, Atlanta allowed 12 fewer points per 100 possessions when Collins was on the floor
5. Do not have Andrea Bargnani in the starting five at the start of the season

I wrote earlier about how Toronto's young players need to learn how to win. This is one way to do that.

Bargnani had the worst defensive rating in basketball last season (according to basketball-reference). The year before he had the 9th worst, so it's not exactly a statistical anomaly.

Quick aside: DeMar DeRozan had the worst defensive rating in 09-10, and 7th worst last season. But I know putting him on the bench isn't a realistic option.

Bargnani is a gifted scorer, and he is totally indifferent on the defensive end. All last season, the team failed to hold Bargnani accountable for his defensive miscues. Defence is mostly about effort, and admittedly, there aren't many ways an NBA coach can alter a player's effort level. However, one option for a coach is to sit players down who aren't giving 100%.

Maybe Jay Triano thought he couldn't afford to sit Bargnani (and he could have been right), but affordable or not, a message needs to be sent. Until he gets with the program defensively, Bargnani should come off the bench.

Final (Hypothetical) Result

STARTING FIVE
PG: Jose Calderon
SG: DeMar DeRozan
SF: Andrei Kirilenko
PF: Ed Davis
C: Jason Collins

First 3 off the bench: DeShawn Stevenson, Andrea Bargnani, Jerryd Bayless
Remaining: James Johnson, Amir Johnson, Linas Kleiza, Solomon Alabi

Other than signing Kirilenko, I think all these moves are very realistic, and they all definitely improve the team substantially on the defensive side of the ball.

The Raps need defensive help (d'uh!)

112.7 ... That number tells you everything you need to know about the Raptors' plans in this truncated free agency period.

112.7 was Toronto's points allowed per 100 possessions last season, a mark that was dead last in the NBA ("per possession" offensive & defensive metrics are considered better indicators of a team's play because it takes pace into account). It was the second straight season Toronto, statistically, had the worst defence in the league. In fact, the Raptors haven't had a top 10 defence since that glory year with Kevin O'Neill at the helm.

To give another clue about Toronto's plans in the off-season, consider the following list, given in alphabetical order:

Joel Anthony
Andrew Bynum
Tyson Chandler
Jason Collins
Marc Gasol
Joakim Noah
Jermaine O'Neal
Kendrick Perkins

Those are the starting centres for the eight teams that won at least one playoff series last season. Gasol is the only one from the list that could be considered a solid offensive option (Bynum's agent and close relatives would say he is the second). The others get their playing time purely for work on the defensive side of the ball.

It sounds like a simplification, but it's true: good NBA teams minimize easy points for their opposition. Dunks, lay-ups, uncontested jumpers --- good teams don't allow many of them. The Raptors allowed a lot of them last season, and a big body that protects the rim could go a long way to helping them improve in this regard.

Here are a few different scenarios Toronto could consider:

Perfect match: Tyson Chandler

Casey's interest in Dallas' starting centre is well-documented. Chandler grabbed 19.6% of all available rebounds when he was on the floor last season. Among centres that played at least 20 minutes per game, only Dwight Howard had a higher rate (conversely, Andrea Bargnani ranked dead last in that group at 8.6%).

He has anchored a top-10 defence in each of the past four seasons, including Charlotte's top ranked unit in 2009-10.

The issue: He will be entertaining offers from various title contenders, a list that could include Miami, Boston, New York, and Dall

Potential consolation prize: Joel Przybilla

Przybilla spent six and a half seasons in Portland, before getting traded to Charlotte in a trade that saw the Trail Blazers acquire Gerald Wallace. The 32-year old hasn't been fully healthy since 2008-09, when he grabbed a career-high 8.7 rebounds per game. He is a big body that blocks shots, and is always among the leaders at the position for drawing charges.

A plus: Przybilla is a role player, and would fit in well with Toronto's plan to develop their young front court players.

A minus: His lack of mobility would be especially glaring if paired with Bargnani at power forward.

Wild Card: Restricted free agent Greg Oden (Blazers)

First, to clarify: There is no compensation in the NBA for restricted free agents (as opposed to the NHL --- where top-level RFAs garner multiple 1st round picks as compensation).

Oden has failed to live up to the hype of being the first overall pick in the 2007 draft, however when he is healthy, he is a huge defensive force. In his career, he averages 17 points, 13 rebounds, and over 3 blocks per 36 minutes of floor time. Of course, it's ridiculous to use 36 minutes as a unit of measure for Oden, because it's safe to say he'll never average over 30 per game in any season. Regardless, in 09-10, Oden led the league in rebound percentage, and blocks per minute. He's a potential game-changer.

Now, to dampen everyone's spirits: he received an $8.8 million qualifying offer from Portland, and all indications are he's expected to stay with the Blazers.

So, while high-scoring free agents such as David West and Jason Richardson will undoubtedly get lots of attention (and dollars), expect the Raptors to focus on finding an anchor on the defensive end. Just don't hold your breath waiting for a big name.