T.Jose Caldeford

MLB PAYROLL CHANGE - 1992 TO 2011

2011-12-20T19:14:00.000-08:00

Consider this a fulfillment of a request from Dave Naylor and Bruce Arthur...

Earlier tonight, Dave tweeted: "Would love to see MLB payrolls 1992 and 2012 for the other 29 teams."

This is what I am here for (with big thanks to baseball-reference.com):

(but since 2012 payrolls aren't finalized, I'll be going with 2011 numbers)

INCREASE IN PAYROLL
FROM 1992-2011

1. NYY $165 M
2. PHI $148 M
3. BOS $118 M
4. LAA $104 M
5. CHW $98 M
6. CHC $95 M
7. SFG $85 M
8. MIN $85 M
9. DET $78 M
10. STL $78 M
11. NYM $74 M
12. SEA $63 M
13. TEX $62 M
14. BAL $61 M
15. LAD $59 M
16. HOU $55 M
17. MIL $54 M
18. ATL $52 M
19. WAS/MTL $44 M
20. CIN $40 M
21. CLE $39 M
22. OAK $26 M
23. SDP $19 M
24. PIT $11 M
25. TOR $6 M
26. KC $2 M

TOR: $56 M IN 1992, $62 M IN 2011 (AFTER EXCHANGE RATE)

So, in other words, only the Royals have had a smaller payroll increase between 1992 & 2011. This isn't the perfect measure --- for example, it doesn't take into account what teams spent in the years between 1992 and 2011 --- but the point still holds: This is one of the many reasons why Jays fans are frustrated. Here's something that'll make you even more frustrated:

The average inflation rate from 1992-2011 was 2.5%... if the Jays simply kept up with inflation, their payroll would be somewhere close to $90 m.

That is all.

Five-point plan

2011-11-27T16:03:00.001-08:00

Most observers of the NBA in this city are already treating this season as a write-off. They say the most important part of this season for the Raptors should be securing a high draft pick for the 2012 Draft. I disagree, and a look into the recent past is my main argument.

The Raptors won 16 games in the 1997-98 season. Their leading scorer was John Wallace. Heading into a lockout-shortened season, the Raptors didn't simply wave the white flag and plan for the next draft, here is what they did:

Drafted Vince Carter
Traded 2 first-round picks for 36-year old centre Kevin Willis
Traded Marcus Camby to the Knicks for 36-year old power forward Charles Oakley

Then general manager Glen Grunwald identified young pieces to build around (Tracy McGrady, Doug Christie, Alvin Williams), then added 3 starters through the draft and trade routes. Think about the backlash if Toronto traded two first-rounders for an aging centre now... and then consider those two picks in '98 ended up being Bryce Drew and Mirsad Turkcan.

If there was anything to be learned from the 1998-99 season, it was the opportunity it provided for young teams. A 23-year old Allen Iverson led the league in scoring. 22-year old Tim Duncan led San Antonio to its first NBA title. And the young, upstart Raptors became the most exciting team in the league, finishing with a surprising 23-27 record.

Glen Grunwald could have tanked that season, and geared up for a high pick in the '99 draft. In fact, that was the exact route taken by the Chicago Bulls in the post-Jordan era. Chicago got that first overall pick in '99 (Elton Brand), and it still took them six seasons to post a winning record. Instead, Grunwald did everything he could to compete, laying the foundation for three consecutive playoff seasons in the years ahead.

What do I take from this look into the past: There's an inherent, immeasurable quality that veterans bring to a young team. DeMar DeRozan, Ed Davis, and Andrea Bargnani could benefit greatly from seeing how players from winning teams operate on a day-to-day basis.

No season should be over before it begins.

And with that, here's a five-point plan to (immediately) improve the Raptors:

Toronto has 10 players under contract, here is their depth chart:

STARTING FIVE
PG: Jose Calderon, Jerryd Bayless
SG: DeMar DeRozan,
SF: James Johnson,
PF: Ed Davis,
C: Andrea Bargnani

BENCH
Jerryd Bayless, Leandro Barbosa, Linas Kleiza, Amir Johnson, Solomon Alabi

(note: Sonny Weems signed a contract in Europe that did not have an out-clause if the NBA returned, so he is not playing this season with Toronto)

Action #1. Use amnesty clause on Leandro Barbosa

Barbosa is a player (one of many) that doesn't fit into Dwayne Casey's vision of a defensive-minded team. He's also a back-up guard making $7 million this season. That cap space could be better used elsewhere.

Action #2. Move Linas Kleiza to the end of the bench

When he was signed as a free-agent, Kleiza was marketed as a combo forward with good size and good shooting skills. Instead, he shot 44% from the field, 29% from three-point land, and 63% from the line. 16 players racked up at least 100 minutes for Toronto last season, and Kleiza's 10.1 PER ranked dead last among those 16.

He's also coming off microfracture surgery (a process with varying degrees of success). This team wants to be fast and athletic, Kleiza is neither.

Action #3. Sign two defensive-minded wing players (one, or both that can preferably shoot from the outside)

The NBA is filled with players who are nearly impossible to guard on the perimeter. Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade are just a few. The best defenders don't necessarily stop these players, but they make things as difficult as can be for them. These defenders challenge all jumpers, take away favourite moves, and make stars work to get open.

Luckily, there are many options on the free agent market, including Shane Battier, Grant Hill, DeShawn Stevenson, Tayshaun Prince, Josh Howard Andrei Kirilenko, and Jared Jeffries.

The dream pickup would be Battier, but he's the type of player a championship team will be salivating over.

Action #4. Sign a defensive-minded post player

I wrote this yesterday, but it bears mentioning again: Here are the 8 starting centres for the teams that made the conference semi-finals last season:

Joel Anthony
Andrew Bynum
Tyson Chandler
Jason Collins
Marc Gasol
Joakim Noah
Jermaine O'Neal
Kendrick Perkins

The obvious theme is defence. The point you can extrapolate from that list is this: You can't win in the playoffs with Andrea Bargnani as your starting centre.

As I wrote yesterday, acquiring Tyson Chandler or Greg Oden would be a huge (unlikely) coup for Toronto, while a Joel Przybilla signing would be a nice consolation prize. Here are two other free agents that could fit:

Jeff Foster: 9-year vet moves very well, and would greatly help on rotations, and pick-and-roll defence
Jason Collins: No one defends Dwight Howard better than Collins. According to 82games.com, Atlanta allowed 12 fewer points per 100 possessions when Collins was on the floor

5. Do not have Andrea Bargnani in the starting five at the start of the season

I wrote earlier about how Toronto's young players need to learn how to win. This is one way to do that.

Bargnani had the worst defensive rating in basketball last season (according to basketball-reference). The year before he had the 9th worst, so it's not exactly a statistical anomaly.

Quick aside: DeMar DeRozan had the worst defensive rating in 09-10, and 7th worst last season. But I know putting him on the bench isn't a realistic option.

Bargnani is a gifted scorer, and he is totally indifferent on the defensive end. All last season, the team failed to hold Bargnani accountable for his defensive miscues. Defence is mostly about effort, and admittedly, there aren't many ways an NBA coach can alter a player's effort level. However, one option for a coach is to sit players down who aren't giving 100%.

Maybe Jay Triano thought he couldn't afford to sit Bargnani (and he could have been right), but affordable or not, a message needs to be sent. Until he gets with the program defensively, Bargnani should come off the bench.

Final (Hypothetical) Result

STARTING FIVE
PG: Jose Calderon
SG: DeMar DeRozan
SF: Andrei Kirilenko
PF: Ed Davis
C: Jason Collins

First 3 off the bench: DeShawn Stevenson, Andrea Bargnani, Jerryd Bayless
Remaining: James Johnson, Amir Johnson, Linas Kleiza, Solomon Alabi

Other than signing Kirilenko, I think all these moves are very realistic, and they all definitely improve the team substantially on the defensive side of the ball.

The Raps need defensive help (d'uh!)

2011-11-27T12:42:00.000-08:00

112.7 ... That number tells you everything you need to know about the Raptors' plans in this truncated free agency period.

112.7 was Toronto's points allowed per 100 possessions last season, a mark that was dead last in the NBA ("per possession" offensive & defensive metrics are considered better indicators of a team's play because it takes pace into account). It was the second straight season Toronto, statistically, had the worst defence in the league. In fact, the Raptors haven't had a top 10 defence since that glory year with Kevin O'Neill at the helm.

To give another clue about Toronto's plans in the off-season, consider the following list, given in alphabetical order:

Joel Anthony
Andrew Bynum
Tyson Chandler
Jason Collins
Marc Gasol
Joakim Noah
Jermaine O'Neal
Kendrick Perkins

Those are the starting centres for the eight teams that won at least one playoff series last season. Gasol is the only one from the list that could be considered a solid offensive option (Bynum's agent and close relatives would say he is the second). The others get their playing time purely for work on the defensive side of the ball.

It sounds like a simplification, but it's true: good NBA teams minimize easy points for their opposition. Dunks, lay-ups, uncontested jumpers --- good teams don't allow many of them. The Raptors allowed a lot of them last season, and a big body that protects the rim could go a long way to helping them improve in this regard.

Here are a few different scenarios Toronto could consider:

Perfect match: Tyson Chandler

Casey's interest in Dallas' starting centre is well-documented. Chandler grabbed 19.6% of all available rebounds when he was on the floor last season. Among centres that played at least 20 minutes per game, only Dwight Howard had a higher rate (conversely, Andrea Bargnani ranked dead last in that group at 8.6%).

He has anchored a top-10 defence in each of the past four seasons, including Charlotte's top ranked unit in 2009-10.

The issue: He will be entertaining offers from various title contenders, a list that could include Miami, Boston, New York, and Dall

Potential consolation prize: Joel Przybilla

Przybilla spent six and a half seasons in Portland, before getting traded to Charlotte in a trade that saw the Trail Blazers acquire Gerald Wallace. The 32-year old hasn't been fully healthy since 2008-09, when he grabbed a career-high 8.7 rebounds per game. He is a big body that blocks shots, and is always among the leaders at the position for drawing charges.

A plus: Przybilla is a role player, and would fit in well with Toronto's plan to develop their young front court players.

A minus: His lack of mobility would be especially glaring if paired with Bargnani at power forward.

Wild Card: Restricted free agent Greg Oden (Blazers)

First, to clarify: There is no compensation in the NBA for restricted free agents (as opposed to the NHL --- where top-level RFAs garner multiple 1st round picks as compensation).

Oden has failed to live up to the hype of being the first overall pick in the 2007 draft, however when he is healthy, he is a huge defensive force. In his career, he averages 17 points, 13 rebounds, and over 3 blocks per 36 minutes of floor time. Of course, it's ridiculous to use 36 minutes as a unit of measure for Oden, because it's safe to say he'll never average over 30 per game in any season. Regardless, in 09-10, Oden led the league in rebound percentage, and blocks per minute. He's a potential game-changer.

Now, to dampen everyone's spirits: he received an $8.8 million qualifying offer from Portland, and all indications are he's expected to stay with the Blazers.

So, while high-scoring free agents such as David West and Jason Richardson will undoubtedly get lots of attention (and dollars), expect the Raptors to focus on finding an anchor on the defensive end. Just don't hold your breath waiting for a big name.

Arguing against the "Kobe isn't Clutch" conventional wisdom

2011-05-03T09:05:00.000-07:00

I told Michael Grange I needed more than 140 characters to make this argument, so I moved from Twitter to this dusty ol' blog.

A quick primer: Kobe Bryant's poor late game performance in Game 1 against the Mavs renewed the "Kobe isn't clutch" argument. This argument is based on one key set of statistics that show, on game-winning shot attempts, Kobe shoots right at the league average (somewhere just below 30%).

First warning sign for me: Everyone seems to agree with this argument (except for Laker fans). This rule comes from my penchant for gambling but whenever so many people seem to agree (so vehemently) about a particular issue, that usually tells me the truth probably isn't so concrete.

Before I present some counter-statistics, let's look at two weaknesses that pop up when you look at the numbers these conventional wisdomers always cite (note: "wisdomers" not a word).

First, who decided that field goal percentage is the be-all & end-all when it comes to "clutchness"? As I said to Michael, this is like ripping on the NHL leader in game-winning goals because he also had the most potential game-winning attempts (he didn't buy this argument, but you might).

If you've played team sports at any level, there's a pecking order on each team in terms of who you look to throughout the game. But, there's also a pecking order late in the game that doesn't always perfectly correspond with that first list. Some players who don't look to score for most of the game tend to rise up in big moments. Conversely, some big-time scorers tend to shy away from the big moments, and prefer to act as a decoy or passer (more on this later).

Secondly, who decided that game-winning shots is the best measure for "clutchness"? This strikes me as a very narrow-minded definition. The best analogy for the people who make this argument are the people who believe in the (overrated) value of a closer in baseball. Isn't there just as much value in hitting a shot to put your team up 2 with 90 seconds left? Or 2 minutes left?

With that in mind, let's look at 82games.com Clutch statistics --- defined as 4th quarter or OT, less than 5 mins left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points.

This season, Kobe had a league -leading 50 pts per 48 minutes under those conditions. Here are his pts per 48 minutes (and league rank) over the past 4 seasons:

10-11 49.8 (1st)
09-10 51.2 (2nd)
09-09 56.7 (1st)
07-08 51.8 (2nd)

Some more points about this year's statistics:

- Some players thought to be more "clutch" than Kobe in most circles still shoot a higher percentage than him, but take significantly fewer attempts per 48 mins.

K. Bryant 39 fga, 40 fg%
C. Anthony 30 fga, 46 fg%
D. Nowitzki 24 fga, 46 fg%

As I've said before, detractors of Kobe will say he forces too many shots, I say most of the other players shy away from big shots (quick aside: D. Rose averages 37 fga per 48 mins in clutch... does anyone say he forces shots?).

- Kobe also takes hits for the fact that he has just one game-winning assist, and this is another bullet used as evidence for the "forcing too many shots" argument. As it turns out, Kobe averaged 7.6 assists per 48 minutes this season in the clutch. Here's how that number ranks with the 10 other players that average at least 40 pts per 48 mins in clutch (min 70 mins):

Derrick Rose 9.8
Kobe Bryant 7.6
Russell Westbrook 7.0
Dirk Nowitzki 5.6
LeBron James 4.9
Monta Ellis 4.0
Kevin Durant 2.3
Carmelo Anthony 1.3

So Kobe creates more for teammates in the clutch than Russell Westbrook, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant. Are all those players considered ball hogs as well?

- Finally, Kobe's net plus/minus in the clutch over the past four seasons: +192.

In conclusion, this argument was not meant to prove that Kobe is the "best" or "most" clutch player in the NBA. What this argument intended to do was disprove the theory that Kobe is simply an average player in the clutch.

I think I've successfully accomplished that wish. And it only took me about 14,000 characters.

Turn (over) me up some! (inside joke for the Woychyshyn brothers)

2010-12-29T06:33:00.000-08:00

So, the Raptors are a bad team. This, I understand, is not earth-shattering news. I suspect it's not even glass-shattering news (or news at all for that matter).

But, looking at the numbers, can we figure out why they're a bad team? Naked eye observation tells me they give up a bunch of easy buckets, and have to work too hard for their own. But I'm not sure how accurate that is.

While looking through some numbers, I came across this surprising stat (I'll call it my stat of the day):

STAT OF THE DAY

Toronto Raptors Turnover Pct
Since 2000-01

2010-11 14.8
2003-04 14.1
2001-02 13.6
2002-03 13.6
2006-07 13.0

Putting that into words, the Raptors are turning the ball over more often than any other season since the turn of the century. This is (somewhat) surprising, given that Jose Calderon is back as Toronto's full-time starting point guard, but less surprising if you think about the numbers just a little bit. Consider a few factors:

1. Calderon's turnover rate is at its highest point since his rookie season.

How much of this can be attributed to Calderon? Tough to say. I would submit that part of this is reflective of inexperienced post players (Bargnani, Johnson, Evans, Davis, Dorsey) not knowing how to properly seal, pick & roll, etc...

2. Linas Kleiza travels about once every 2.4 minutes

This number might be an approximation (and by approximation, I mean exaggeration)

3. Chris Bosh ain't walkin' thru that door

Turnover Pct This Season

Joey Dorsey 28.1
Reggie Evans 20.5
Amir Johnson 12.7

Chris Bosh's career turnover pct - 11.0

You see what I'm getting at. Say what you will about Mr. Bosh, but for someone who had the ball in his hands an awful lot, he didn't cough it up very often (is that because he never passed the ball with any type of degree of difficulty - well, yes). And Mr. Bosh's minutes have been replaced (for the most part) with a trio of players with a (minutes-weighted) turnover percentage of 17.5.

That probably explains the turnovers more than anything.

OTHER NOTABLE TEAM STATS

Two things I came across that interested me -

94.5 Pace Factor - highest ever (prev. high - 95-96)

I'm not sure if we've talked about this (I'm pretty sure we have), but Pace has no correlation with winning whatsoever. Having said that, teams that go into seasons knowing they are less talented than the majority of the league usually try one of two strategies -

1. Either really slow the pace down, make it a game of as few possessions as possible (thereby increasing the role luck plays over the course of a game)... think Kevin O'Neill's Raptors;

2. Or really fast the pace up (if "slow down" is a term, shouldn't "fast up" be one as well?), and hope even though your team isn't as talented as most, that at least you can teach effort, fitness, etc... and hope sprinting can lead to points/wins.

Now, my eyes tell me the first strategy is much more efficient (and likely to succeed) with less talented players. Less talented players are usually less athletic, and less athletic doesn't usually work when you fast the pace up. I also think, historically, the first option has been more successful. Think of the Milwaukee Bucks last season, or the 95-96 Florida Panthers (oh, this isn't a hockey blog?).

Anyways, the Raptors are clearly trying out the second strategy. But there's a reason why this will NEVER work for this team:

32.7 3pt Pct - worst ever (prev. low - 34.1 - 98-99)

First of all, no matter what pace you play, if you're shooting this poorly from the three-point line, you better be damn good somewhere else, and the Raptors don't fit that mold.

But, if you're trying to play an up-tempo game when you know you're outmanned, that strategy will ONLY work if you can kick it out for lots of wide open threes in transition.

Consider this:

Pace above 94, 3pt pct below 33%
Since 1995-96

02-03 Cle 17 wins
01-02 GS 21 wins
00-01 GS 17 wins
99-00 GS 19 wins
99-00 Sac 44 wins
98-99 Sac 44 wins (proj. win total)
96-97 Phi 22 wins

Few things here -

1. There's a reason this hasn't happened in 8 years. If you're playing at a fast pace, you're shooting the ball well from outside. If you're not, your coach adjusts and slows the pace down. In other words, there's no reason in rushing down the court to take contested 2s.

2. The average win total of those teams - 26. Toronto is on pace for 28.

3. The only playoff team on that list - The late '90s Kings. In other words, you can play at a fast pace and shoot poorly from 3pt land........ IF you have two of the best passing big men of the last 30 years (Divac & Webber) on your team getting you layup after layup.

My closing advice to the Raptors:

I know why they won't do a Kevin O'Neill / Scott Skiles type of transformation. That type of basketball isn't (necessarily) fun to watch. But, if you're going to keep up with this pace of play, please find some three point shooters to throw on your wings. This current collection of DeRozan (10%), Weems (26%), Kleiza (32%), and Barbosa (34%) just isn't good enough.

I've told you the good...

2010-12-07T20:56:00.000-08:00

Now it's time for Bargnani the Bad....

Let's kick it off right away with the patented T.Jose Caldeford STAT OF THE DAY (TM)

STAT OF THE DAY

FEWEST ASSISTS PER GAME
AMONG 20 PPG SCORERS THIS SEASON

Dwight Howard 1.1
Andrea Bargnani 1.4
Jason Richardson 1.5
Michael Beasley 1.6
Kevin Love 2.1

Quick asides:
- First, can we get rid of that "Kevin Love is such a great passer" argument until he bumps up his assist totals a bit?
- Jason Richardson is the only guard on this list... He really is a chucker.

So, 1st point out of the way: Andrea isn't a very good passer.

Next:

ANDREA BARGNANI SHOT DISTRIBUTION
(courtesy 82games.com)

3% dunks/tips
16% close range
81% jump shots

So, 2nd point out of the way: Despite taking fewer threes (as mentioned in my previous post), the 7-foot Bargnani is still predominantly a jump shooter.

Next:

RAPTORS THIS SEASON
(courtesy 82games.com)

WITH BARGNANI ON THE FLOOR: 108 pts / 100 possessions
& ON THE BENCH: 111 pts / 100 possessions

WITH BARGNANI ON THE FLOOR: 114 pts allowed / 100 possessions
& ON THE BENCH: 102 pts allowed / 100 possessions

WITH BARGNANI ON THE FLOOR: Raps get 52% of avail rebounds
& ON THE BENCH: Raps get 55% of avail rebounds

In summation: Toronto's offence is 3 pts better per 100 possessions when Bargnani's on the bench; Toronto's defence is 12 pts better per 100 possessions when Bargnani's on the bench; and Toronto's rebounding is 3 percent better when Bargnani's on the bench.

Wow.

So, 3rd point out of the way: The Raptors are better offensively, defensively, and on the glass when Bargnani is on the bench (maybe those are my 3rd, 4th, & 5th points).

In another (final) summation:

1st point: Despite being the team's focal point on offence, Bargnani is not a good passer.
2nd point: Despite being a 7-footer (and having a pretty soft touch inside), Bargnani remains a jump shooter.
3rd point: Toronto is better offensively with him on the bench.
4th point: Toronto is better defensively with him on the bench.
5th point: Toronto is better on the glass with him on the bench.

That's ugly.

I have to say, these numbers are more up my alley when it comes to the stuff that I "buy" so to speak (compared to the pro-Bargnani stuff I was spewing out a few days back). So, even though I've been pretty pro-Bargnani so far this season, that probably ends tonight.

The toughest players in the NBA to defend...

2010-12-04T09:04:00.000-08:00

Creates matchup problems. Shoots over smaller players, drives on bigger players. An ability to get to--and convert from--the free throw line. Can score from anywhere on the floor.

That is how I would describe players who are tough to guard, and I want to focus particularly on that last statement: Can score from anywhere on the floor.

Hoopdata.com tracks shot locations from five different ranges: At the rim; inside 10 feet; 10-15 feet; 16-23 feet; & 3pt. It's great to see that Blake Griffin leads the NBA with 4.2 FG at the rim (R. Westbrook is 2nd at 3.9!), or that Kyle Lowry is shooting 10% on long 2s this season (10%, wtf!).

Anyways, converting that statement "score from anywhere on the floor" and using it with this data, I came up with the following question:

How many players in the NBA are hitting at least one shot per game from each of the five ranges listed above ?

Here they are:

Kobe Bryant
Kevin Durant
Steve Nash
Rudy Gay

and....

Andrea Bargnani

I like seeing this, and it reaffirms something I said last season, that Bargnani is a much more natural scorer than Chris Bosh. That offence comes easier to him than it does to Bosh.

Quick aside: If you're wondering what's changed about Bargnani's game this season, how this was made possible... this evolution of his scoring... well, he's on pace to take the fewest three-pointers of his career. Even though he's still connecting at the same rate of his career pace (38%), he's still only averaging 3.1 attempts per game (down from a career-high 4.1 last season).

So, I'm comfortable saying Andrea Bargnani is one of the toughest players in the NBA to defend, and I don't think I should be laughed out of a room for saying it!

Andrea the All-Star?

2010-12-04T07:49:00.000-08:00

Walt Williams, Keon Clark, Oliver Miller, John Wallace, Acie Earl... those names echo through the hallowed halls of the ACC... legends in their own right... and now, you can add Andrea Bargnani's name to that legendary list.

Seriously, on Friday night, Bargnani became just the 16th player in Raptor history to put up a 25+ pt, 12+ reb game (something Chris Bosh did 53 times).

The thing I liked about his game: When OKC went small in the 4th, it took Bargnani about 6 minutes to realize, "hey, if I just go down to the low block, crash the boards and--generally speaking--act like a 7-footer, I should be able to control this game." Granted, I didn't like that it took him 6 minutes to figure this out, but just the fact that he figured it out at all is progress (baby steps).

So, here's my question today (because I think I heard either a radio or television voice bring it up last night), and it's not rooted in the type of numbers I usually look at (because, frankly, Bargnani doesn't look good in that light). But here's the question: Is Bargnani an Eastern Conference all-star at centre?

Let's get one qualifier out of the way immediately: The only way he has a remote shot is if Dwight Howard wins the fan voting. If Shaq wins the fan vote, that means Howard has to be a reserve, all but guaranteeing Bargnani would be out of the loop.

Next, let's take his one real positive (his scoring) and put it in context:

He's averaging 20.9 points per game, as a 7-footer. Is that rare? Here's the list of 7-footers that have averaged at least that amount over the last 15 years:

Patrick Ewing
Yao Ming
Dirk Nowitzki
Shaquille O'Neal
Hakeem Olajuwon
David Robinson

So, what he's doing is pretty impressive/unique considering his size & position.

Moving on, let's assume that Shaq won't win the fan vote, and Dwight Howard gets in as the starter. Who are the candidates to be the reserve?

Andrea Bargnani: 21 pts, 6 reb per game, 38% 3pt
Roy Hibbert: 16 pts, 9 reb, 3 ast per game
Al Horford: 16 pts, 10 reb per game, 58% fg
Brook Lopez: 19 pts, 6 reb, 1.6 blk per game
Joakim Noah: 15 pts, 12 reb, 1.4 blk per game
*listed in alpha order

(Andrew Bogut has only played 12 games, and is only averaging 11 pts per game in those 12)

Let's get one thing out of the way immediately: I'm not on the Brook Lopez bandwagon. To put it in perspective, he has a lower field goal percentage than Bargnani, despite the fact that he doesn't shoot threes! And they have the exact same rebound rate!

Let's also scratch Roy Hibbert off the list. He's having a nice season, and we're all surprised at his playmaking ability, but it's just a year or two too early for him.

But even if you knock off those two, that still means Bargnani would have to be picked over Joakim Noah and Al Horford. Those are two players whose contributions to the game go beyond the box score. They defend well, set hard screens, alter shots, etc.... And ultimately, I can't see the coaches looking past that when it comes time to pick reserves.

However, let's go back to Bargnani's 20 pts per game as a 7-footer, and add one more wrinkle, something I'll call my stat of the day.

STAT OF THE DAY

20+ PTS PER GAME
7-0 OR TALLER
25 YRS OF AGE OR YOUNGER

It's something that's happened just 38 times in NBA history, done by just 14 players. Here is the list (in alpha order):

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Joe Barry Carroll
Bill Cartwright
Wilt Chamberlain
Brad Daugherty
Patrick Ewing
Pau Gasol
Yao Ming
Dirk Nowitzki
Shaquille O'Neal
Hakeem Olajuwon
David Robinson
Ralph Sampson

The one player Raptors fans should be excited about...

2010-11-18T11:25:00.000-08:00

Andrea Bargnani is averaging career highs in points, free throw attempts, and free throw percentage. You should be happy about that. But... it's not all that "exciting." It was expected, for the most part.
5 players in the NBA that are 21 years old or younger get to the free throw line more than 4 times per game: Blake Griffin, John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Tyreke Evans, and DeMar DeRozan. You should be happy about that. But... 190 NBA players have taken at least 8 three-pointers this season, only 5 of those players have a lower 3pt shooting percentage than DeRozan's .125. That's why you shouldn't be excited about him.
Jarrett Jack is shooting 40% from the field, and 17% from 3pt land. That's all I have to say about him (for now).
Linas Kleiza has a very interesting accent. That's all I have to say about him right now.
Reggie Evans grabs boards. Many of them. He also plays beside someone that doesn't like to grab boards. You should be happy about that. But... 109 NBA players have played at least 300 minutes this season, only 11 have a lower offensive rating than Evans. So... he's a bit of a one-trick pony (Ya, I know, not a lot of groundbreaking stuff on Caldeford just yet).
Amir Johnson is averaging 16 pts & 9 reb per 36 minutes. We get it. This guy produces when he's on the floor, and for that, you should be happy. But... he's also averaging a career-high 7.2 fouls per 36 minutes. So.... ya, you get the picture.
Leandro Barbosa's 19 pts per 36 minutes ranks 3rd on the team (good). But... he needs a team-high 18.5 shots per 36 minutes to get those points (chucker = not so good).
Joey Dorsey grabs a rebound every two minutes. But... his jersey is a bit too tight.
I'm excited about David Andersen's hair (and his hair elastic). But... I don't think that applies for the purposes of yadayadayada either.
I'm excited about Jose Calderon. But... I'm always excited about Jose Calderon, so he doesn't apply for the purposes of this article.

Anyways, by this point, if you're reading Caldeford (after a 50 day hiatus... yaya, I get it, I'm lazy, sue me), then you know I'm getting to Mr. Sonny (Money) Weems. Here are the bullet points:

14.1 pts per game (2nd on team)
Shooting 53.1% from the field (2nd on team)
Shooting 42.9% from three (2nd on team)
Averaging 2.9 ast per 36 minutes (best non-point guard total on team)

And my best bullet point is my...

STAT OF THE DAY

50 guards in the NBA take at least 10 shots per game... here are the top 10 among those 50 in terms of field goal percentage:

10. Dwyane Wade .492
9. Devin Harris .496
8. Steve Nash .503
7. Monta Ellis .514
6. Vince Carter .514
5. Chris Paul .520
4. Ben Gordon .520
3. Tony Parker .524
2. Jason Terry .525
1. Sonny Weems .531

So ya, I'm excited about him.

I'm so excited, I'm going to tell the Raptors how they can maximize Weems' performance on the floor (and in turn, the entire team's):

Lesson #1 - The DeRozan & Weems buddy-buddy routine should stop

The Devlins, Rautinses, Smiths, & Joneses of the world love to talk about the chemistry that exists between these two young players. How they "feed off one another"... and "make each other better."

They're wrong.

When those two have been on the floor together, the Raptors' point differential is -35. In all other instances, the team is -7.

Lesson #2 - Weems is most effective as a shooting guard, not small forward

Because they love to play Weems with DeRozan, over 3/4s of Weems' playing time has come at the 3. But that totally negates Weems strengths as a player. Offensively, he differentiates himself from other players by his ability to elevate and get off his mid-range jumper. That ability is neutralized when he's being covered by long, athletic 6'8ish small forwards, and the numbers back me up on this:

Weems as a small forward: 23 pts per 48, 16.0 PER, -60 +/-
Weems as a shooting guard: 32 pts per 48, 27.1 PER, +19 +/-

Lesson #3 - You should have seen this one coming - Weems is most effective with Calderon as his PG

This shouldn't come as a surprise. Calderon looks to set up others in the offence, while Jack looks for his own shot first, and isn't as gifted as a passer. To wit:

With Calderon and Weems as the backcourt, the Raps have outscored the opposition 91-73 in 42 minutes. With Jack and Weems as the backcourt, the Raps have outscored the opposition 49-48 in 23 minutes.

ADD UP ALL THE LESSONS AND WHAT DO YOU GET?...

You should be starting Calderon & Weems at the 1 & 2, and obviously Bargnani should start at the 5.

Looking up all the lineups (at basketballvalue.com) that have been used this season that satisfy those criteria, here's what you get: The Raptors have outscored the opposition 38-19 in 14 minutes.

(Your welcome for solving all of the Raptors issues in one single post)

Turkoglu is gone, so is "Ball"

2010-09-28T21:08:00.001-07:00

I enjoyed "Ball." You enjoyed "Ball." We all enjoyed "Ball."

But we've had enough fun with Balls. It's time to move on.

NEWS OF THE DAY

John Hollinger predicts the Raptors will finish 15th in the East, and win 22 games.

There's a good side to this you know. At least if the Raptors get the 1st overall pick in 2011, the draft will actually feature a legit #1 (see here or here).

The bad side is, well, Raptor fans would have to sit through another dreadful season.

QUESTION OF THE DAY

But before everyone gets all gloom and doom around here, let's ask a pertinent question: How accurate are Mr. Hollinger's predictions? Granted, he probably picked the Lakers to win the title last season, but if you asked my mom the same question, she would have given the same answer.

So, let's take a look at Mr. Hollinger's 2009-10 East forecast, and see how it stacked up to the real thing:

2009-10 Actual order of finish (with Hollinger prediction in brackets)

East
1. Cle (1)
2. Orl (2)
3. Atl (4)
4. Bos (3)
5. Mia (7)
6. Mil (14)
7. Cha (12)
8. Chi (9)
9. Tor (10)
10. Ind (11)
11. NY (13)
12. Det (8)
13. Phi (5)
14. Wsh (6)
15. NJ (15)

Quick Analysis: It doesn't take ESPN's resident basketball expert to know the Cavs, Magic, Hawks, Celts, and Heat were playoff teams coming into last season. Fact is, he whiffed on the only 3 "up for grabs" spots in the East. Granted, I don't think anyone predicted Gilbert Arenas would start packing heat in an NBA locker room. Here's one particularly bad forecast:

Philly: "Andre Miller may be gone, but Elton Brand returns to join several young studs -- Andre Iguodala, Thaddeus Young, Louis Williams, Marreese Speights -- on the East's most underrated squad."

My take: I think John is a bit over-reliant on his PER metric and forgets to take a step back to look at the forest instead of each tree (or something like that). What's funny is that's probably what most critics of my work would say about me.

With that in mind, let's take a look at Mr. Hollinger's 2010-11 predicted order of finish, and see if we can pick out where he's looking at the trees instead of the forest (last time I use that weak analogy, I promise):

2010-11 Hollinger Predictions for East

1. MIA 66-16
2. ORL 55-27
3. BOS 51-31
4. MIL 49-33
5. CHI 48-34
6. ATL 46-36
7. PHI 43-39
8. NY 37-45
9. IND 34-48
10. DET 32-50
11. CHA 30-52
12. WSH 30-52
13. CLE 29-53
14. NJ 26-56
15. TOR 22-60

My take:

There are 6 pretty good-to-amazing teams in the East, followed by 9 very average, very flawed franchises.
I absolutely refuse to believe the Cleveland Cavaliers are 7 games better than Toronto
I absolutely refuse to believe the Philadelphia 76ers are an above .500 team. Who distributes for that team? Who shoots for that team?

ANALYSIS OF THE DAY

Media and fans like to make a bunch of assumptions about teams heading into a new season. For instance, here are two key assumptions about this season's Raptors:

1. With the loss of Chris Bosh, the team as a whole will struggle to score
2. Though the team will struggle to score without Bosh, Andrea Bargnani will thrive (offensively) without Bosh in the lineup

Let's see if those assumptions hold up by looking at how Toronto fared in 12 games without Bosh last season.

Toronto went 5-7 WOB (without Bosh), compared to 35-35 WB (with Bosh). The WOB record translates to 34 wins over an 82-game schedule. Take that, John Hollinger! Seriously though, 5 of those 7 losses came against Portland, Cleveland, OKC, Boston, & Atlanta. In other words, this wasn't an easy slate of games.
Toronto averaged 104 pts per game WOB, 104 WB..... whoa... ya, this team definitely struggled to score without CB4 (note: I understand sarcasm doesn't always translate via text, but I think you get the point here).
Toronto allowed 107 pts per game WOB, 106 WB... again, another HUGE discrepancy.
My eyes told me that the ball probably moved better without Bosh and his deliberate post moves in the game... well Toronto averaged 23 assists per game WOB, 22 WB... that's probably not noticeable to the eye... let's move on
Want to know the most drastic change in games WOB? Not surprisingly, at the free throw line... Toronto got to the line 21 times per game WOB, compared to 27 times per game WB

BULLISH ON BARGNANI?

Contrary to popular belief, Andrea Bargnani did not experience a surge in productivity WOB. He averaged 18 pts and 5 reb per game WOB, while shooting 46% from the field (compared to 17, 6, 47% on the season). The rebounding numbers are particularly surprising, and could be a good indicator that we shouldn't expect a bump this season.

JONESIN' FOR JOHNSON?

Amir Johnson averaged 11 pts and 5 reb per game WOB while shooting 65% from the field (compared to 6, 5, 62% on the season). Nice bumps, but again nothing mind-boggling.

So where does the apparent enthusiasm for the Bargnani/Johnson come from? They stole from Costanza! (jump to about 1:21)

Over the last week or so of the season, Bargnani & Johnson were the featured frontcourt of the Raptors, and these were their average numbers:

Bargnani: 21 pts, 5 reb, 49% FG
Johnson: 16 pts, 5 reb, 73% FG

Granted, your team isn't going anywhere if your starting frontcourt grabs a combined 10 boards per game, but I digress. Those are phenomenal offensive numbers for a starting frontcourt (37 pts, 57% FG combined).

NEXT POST: Did anyone else flourish WOB? Should I get rid of the "WOB" shortform?

Ball v.1.44

2010-08-13T04:44:00.000-07:00

Was at the Rogers Cup yesterday. Sat in awe watching a couple pros work. Not talking about Federer or Murray... actually talking about Bruce Arthur & Michael Grange, but I digress.

ANYWAYS, actually considered heading down to the ACC to watch Canada/France. That is, I considered it until I went online to look at ticket prices. It cost $90 for two tickets in the lower bowl. Add in parking, a beer or two, and some food, and you're looking at a $200 night for two people to watch the game in decent seats. Are you kidding me?

So, naturally, I was curious to see what the final paid attendance would be for the game. Sure enough, it was embarrassing: just over 2500 people were at the game.

More embarrassing than the attendance however, were people's reactions to it. Various scribes and fans (via Twitter) were using it as source for an argument that the fans of this city should be ashamed for not supporting their national basketball team. Again: Are you kidding me? The story is how out of touch Canada Basketball is for putting these prices so out of whack with reality.

If they really knew what they were doing, they would have scheduled a Saturday/Sunday slate of games with both set in the afternoon. Make the Sunday game a "for the kids" event. Everyone 12-and-under gets a ticket for $10 bucks, no questions asked.

The goal of these games shouldn't have been a profit. It should have been to put on the best possible event with the best possible atmosphere. They failed.

Ball v.1.43

2010-08-04T06:06:00.001-07:00

Here's what I've decided about our boy Andrea Bargnani after reading yesterday's comments: He is a polarizing figure. He's Vernon Wells, or Larry Murphy... our own Sarah Palin.

All that being said, I still maintain he doesn't get enough credit for how unique of a player he is...

So, here are a few more ways Bargnani is a unique player:

MOST CAREER 3PT FG

7-0 OR TALLER

Dirk Nowitzki 1131

Andrea Bargnani 430

Arvydas Sabonis 136

Vlade Divac 100

HIGHEST CAREER FT%

7-0 OR TALLER

Dirk Nowitzki 87.6%

Yao Ming 83.2%

Andrea Bargnani 81.5%

Brook Lopez 81.0%

Yi Jianlian 80.5%

LOWEST REBOUNDS PER 36 MINUTES

7-0 OR TALLER

Brad Sellers 5.4

Nikoloz Tskitishvili 5.7

Andrea Bargnani 6.0

Jason Collins 6.6

Daniel Santiago 6.6

STAT OF THE DAY

So, he's unique. Can we all agree on that? Anyways, here's the biggest reason why I'm bullish on Bargnani: Check out the various per game categories he's improved in two straight seasons

Minutes

Field Goals

FG%

3PT Att

Off Reb

Def Reb

Blocks

Points

Again, will it all likely lead to a 35-win season... Perhaps. But I'm starting to think Bargnani averages 20+.

Ball v.1.42

2010-08-03T07:01:00.000-07:00

Lost in all the incessant chatter about Chris Bosh's effort level and Hedo Turkoglu's parting shots is the key question of the off-season (which I'm sure people will get to eventually): Can this team be even reasonably good?

While I won't fully answer until closer to the start of the season, I've been thinking a lot about "how" to answer that question.

First, I want to talk about the conventional wisdom: The CV says without Chris Bosh, this team will be led by a one-dimensional (that dimension being offence) post player and will be absolutely awful defensively.

Here's my question: Wasn't last year's team led by a one-dimensional post player and weren't they absolutely awful defensively?

My point is this: I think any frontcourt combination the Raptors throw out there this season will be better defensively than the Bosh-Bargnani duo we saw for the past few seasons.

My secondary point is this: I think any questions about how good this team can be this season revolve around Andrea Bargnani's ability to shoulder a heavier load. This is obviously a cliche angle that will be followed by all the conventional media outlets, but sometimes the obvious answer is the right one.

Here's where I differ from the CV: I think Bargnani can handle his new role.

STAT OF THE DAY

Here is a list of 7-footers that have averaged over 17 pts per game in a season before turning 25 (listed in chronological order):

Andrea Bargnani

Brook Lopez

Yao Ming

Pau Gasol

Dirk Nowitzki

Shaquille O'Neal

David Robinson

Kevin Duckworth

Brad Daugherty

Hakeem Olajuwon

Patrick Ewing

Ralph Sampson

Joe Barry Caroll

Bill Cartwright

Artis Gilmore

Elmore Smith

Kareeem Abdul-Jabbar

Wilt Chamberlain

A few caveats before I move along with my point: Yes, there are many players who were probably 6'10 or 6'11 who also averaged 17 pts per game before they hit 25 years of age, I understand. Secondly, I understand 16 or so of the players listed above are better defensive players than Bargnani.

All that being said, the point still stands: As a young 7-footer that can score, Bargnani is an extremely rare commodity.

QUICK ASIDE OF THE DAY

There's an interesting phenomenon that exists in Toronto and I'm not sure it exists elsewhere. While most cities love to coddle their young players and love watching them grow, Toronto seems to be the exact opposite (unless said player happens to be wearing a Leaf jersey---I'm talking to you Nazem Kadri). Toronto fans and media love to jump all over young Blue Jays and Raptors if they don't fall into that 1% of their league that shines right from the start.

My (least) favourite example:

Chris Carpenter was a supremely talented pitcher who was rushed to the major leagues. Despite the fast track, he still fought his way to a .500 career record with the Jays when his contract was up for renewal following an injury-plagued 2002 campaign. Though Carpenter would have to miss all of the following season due to injury, he wasn't asking for much money to re-sign. However, Toronto had had enough. Get him out of town. Good riddance. Career underachiever! Well, from 2004 to today pitching for the St. Louis Cardinals, Carpenter has a .745 win%, which is best in all of baseball over that time.

BACK TO BARGNANI

So how does Chris Carpenter relate to Andrea Bargnani? Well, we love to focus on everything Bargnani hasn't accomplished to date: He isn't a ferocious rebounder, he doesn't like the low post, he has yet to learn how to breath with his mouth closed, etc... But Raptor fans need to realize what they actually have: A uniquely talented, young, post player locked up in a long-term, reasonably priced contract.

As I said earlier, I think he can handle the heavier load, and here's one of the biggest reasons why:

STAT OF THE DAY #2

Andrea Bargnani

Fouls per 36 minutes

2006-07 4.0 (6.8)

2007-08 4.1 (6.3)

2008-09 3.6 (7.5)

2009-10 2.8 (7.7)

In other words, he's learning how to stay on the floor. The number in brackets, by the way, is a summation of his rebounds & blocks per 36 minutes. In other words, though he's fouling less often each season, he's actually increasing his defensive activity at the same time. This is all progress.

Listen, end of the day, I'm not coming out and saying this is a playoff team. But I'm also not saying they're necessarily going to be awful. All I'm saying is Andrea Bargnani is actually better than most people give him credit for...

(note: I hate ending a sentence, let alone an entire post, with a word like "for"... but I'm not really sure how to change that last paragraph, and I'm also pretty hungry... so there)

Ball V.1.41

2010-07-21T12:33:00.001-07:00

Is Matt Barnes coming? Isn't he? I don't care. Just like Brett Favre, the Phoenix Coyotes situation, Jim Balsillie, & Scott Niedermayer.... I just don't care about these things anymore. I don't want to keep up to the minute with various "tweets." Just call me when a decision is made one way or the other.

Here's two things we do know:

1. Leandro Barbosa will be a Raptor next season.

2. Linas Kleiza will be a Raptor next season.

Based on that, let's do a bit of analysis:

LEANDRO BARBOSA

On the surface, Leandro Barbosa had his least successful season as a pro in 2009-10. He struggled with injuries, and when he was in the lineup, he found his minutes eaten away in the backcourt by Goran Dragic, Jason Richardson, and Jared Dudley.

He averaged 18 mpg (lowest since 04-05), shot a career-low 42% from the field (prev. low - 45%), 32% from 3-point land (prev. low - 37%), and therefore averaged under 10 pts per game for the first time in five seasons.

There's the bad.

Here's the good: When Barbosa was on the court, the Suns tended to be pretty good. Barbosa frequently pops up in Phoenix's best lineups, and his net plus/minus of +1.7 was 4th best on the team (behind Nash, Stoudemire, and Richardson).

Here's the best: Barbosa knows how to get to the rim. He's averaged over 5 attempts at the rim per 40 minutes in every NBA season he's played in, including averaging 6 per 40 minutes this past season.

To put that number in context, let's show where current Raptors rank in terms of attempts at the rim per 40 minutes last season:

Evans 6.4
Barbosa 6.0
Johnson 5.8
DeRozan 5.2
Jack 3.6
Weems 3.6
Banks 3.5
Bargnani 3.4
Calderon 3.4
Belinelli 3.1

So, in other words, the Raptors finally have a player capable of penetrating from the perimeter and getting to the hoop.

Finally, in listening to Bryan Colangelo, it sounds as if Barbosa will back up at both the point & shooting guard positions. This seems like a valid idea. I'm sure he can handle the ball (as the attempts at the rim show), but he hasn't exactly run an offence over the past few seasons. Consider his proportion of minutes played by position over the past few seasons

2009-10: 4% at PG, 96% at SG
2008-9: 56% at PG, 44% at SG
2007-8: 35% at PG, 65% at SG
2006-7: 33% at PG, 67% at SG
2005-6: 5% at PG, 95% at SG

So, Barbosa played the majority of his minutes at the point in just one season since 2005-6. All I'm saying is, if Colangelo is planning to have his two point guards be Jarrett Jack and Barbosa, I think the offence (and especially Andrea Bargnani) could suffer to get good open looks.

LINAS KLEIZA

The first thing about Kleiza that should be pointed out right away is that despite being known mainly as a small forward (and expected to compete for the starting spot in Toronto), the majority of his playing time as a Nugget in 2008-09 came as a Power Forward.

Granted, he was more effective in his time as a Small Forward (especially on the defensive side of the ball), but still, I think you actually might see a repeat of 08-09 in this upcoming season. I'm not sold that Amir Johnson will be able to stay on the floor (re: foul trouble), and I'm not sure Ed Davis or Solomon Alabi is ready for prime time. Also, if you read between the lines of what Bryan Colangelo is saying in the press, it sounds as if he wants his team to go small a fair bit, and I think the only way that happens is with Kleiza at the 4.

STAT OF THE DAY

Kleiza is not shy. He's a chucker of Belinelli-like proportions. Among the 2008-9 Nuggets, only Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith took more shots per minute than Kleiza, and only Smith took more 3-pointers than Kleiza's 6 per 40 minutes. Consider where that number would rank among last season's Raptors:

3pt FG per 40 mins

Kleiza 6.0
Belinelli 5.6
Turkoglu 5.1
Wright 5.0
Bargnani 4.6
Calderon 3.8
Jack 3.5

(FYI: Barbosa 6.9 per 40 mins last season)

Maybe that's the thing to take from today's read: Barbosa and Kleiza both aren't going to be shy about putting the ball up towards the rim, and that's probably a good thing, considering the team is losing about 3000 field goal attempts in Bosh, Turkoglu, Calderon, Wright, & Nesterovic.

Ball v.1.40

2010-07-20T09:34:00.000-07:00

A change in philosophy... that's the term that keeps popping in my head when I think about what Bryan Colangelo is trying to accomplish this off-season. He's abandoning the idea that you can out-finesse or out-offence teams in the NBA, and he's going to a more traditional way of building a roster. Athletes on the wings, and size on the blocks... gone (or soon to be gone in the case of Jose Calderon) are players who rely on savvy and basketball IQ, and to a lesser extent, who rely on shooting. Consider the career outside shooting numbers of the current point guards and swingmen on the Raptors:

CAREER 3PT FG%

Barbosa - 40%

Calderon - 39%

Bargnani - 38%

Jack - 36%

Kleiza - 34%

Barnes - 33%

DeRozan - 25%

Weems - 11%

No one over 40% and with Calderon likely not on the roster come October, only one guard above 36%.

But just how smart of a shift is this? Colangelo is abandoning his Euro-based philosophy at a time when it seems to be catching on in the NBA. The two most lethal offences in the NBA (arguably) are those of Phoenix and Orlando. And a big part of those arsenals is the three-point shot. Consider: The Suns had 6 players who shot better than 39% from beyond the arc last season, while the Magic featured 7 players that made at least one three per game. With the likely loss of Calderon, the Raptors will have just two players who drained at least one three-point shot per game last season (Jack & Bargnani).

So as I said (and as John Hollinger has written about extensively), the three-point shot is increasingly becoming an integral part of the best offences in the NBA. Here is an excerpt from one of Hollinger's articles:

"Teams that take lots of 3s tend to win, and the more 3s they jack up, the more successful they are. The idea that "real" teams don't depend on the 3 is based in the old-school mentality that the 3 is a novelty shot, a circus trick that has little to do with real basketball.

The truth is the exact opposite, though. The Celtics and Lakers both shoot the 3 far more than the league average... and nearly every other quality team from the past several years -- the only low-3 teams to break through were Larry Brown's Pistons teams and the '06 Mavs."

Hollinger expanded on this again later in the 2008-9 season:

"Few stats correlate better with winning than 3-point attempts... Check this out: The teams in the top 10 in 3-point attempts per field goal attempt have a combined win % of .593 and those in the bottom 10 have a combined win % of .400. That's no accident. Three-point attempts have correlated highly with winning for the past several years."

So, as you can see, I question Colangelo's strategy for revamping the roster. I understand what he's trying to do, he's trying to improve on the defensive side of the ball, especially on the perimeter, and that makes sense. As good as the Raptors have been hitting shots from outside the past few seasons (think Parker, Calderon, Kapono, etc...), they've been just as bad at giving up the three ball. The team was a -91 in terms of 3pt FGM - Opponent 3pt FGM last season, that ranked 21st in the NBA.

But, as Hollinger continued, preventing 3-point makes or attempts, isn't nearly as important as what you do on the offensive end:

"Here's the really weird part: Preventing 3-point attempts does not convey any similar advantage. The bottom 10 teams in this category are a combined .501, while the top are .509 -- an insignificant difference, especially considering teams in the middle 10 are wore than both the top and bottom groups."

So long story short... I'm a bit skeptical of the changes. Though I know how important defence is, I'm not sure you can totally neglect the offensive side of the ball, despite what the Charlotte Bobcats & Larry Brown might have to say about that.

STATS OF THE DAY

So, we don't know yet if Matt Barnes will be a Raptor, but here's a quick synopsis of what he will bring to the team: Among SF, he ranked in the top 10 in True Shooting % last season. That figure is encouraging because he didn't shoot the three all that well last season, meaning his shot selection inside the three-point line must be pretty good.

Next, Barnes had a net plus/minus of +6.2, which was 3rd best on the Magic.

But one stat about Barnes stands out above the rest, and I think this probably had a lot to do with the Raptors bringing him in after the departure of Chris Bosh:

Barnes' rebounding percentage was 2nd best among NBA SF last season. Only the crazy-freakish-ball-hawk Gerald Wallace was better. And this wasn't an aberration. Barnes has ranked among the top 5 SF in rebounding percentage in each of the past 3 seasons.

Listen, when you lose 11 boards a game, you need to make them up in some way, and Amir Johnson won't grab all 11 of those rebounds. You need guys to grab boards all over the floor and Barnes will do that, and that's why I expect he'd win the starting spot at the 3 if he does end up being a Raptor.

Ball v.1.39

2010-07-07T11:20:00.000-07:00

My break is over. I'm off work from TSN for 6 more weeks, so I thought it's time to revive the blog.

Anything big happening in Raptor-land these days???

Here's my top 10 thoughts about Bosh-to-Miami:

10. I'm sick of Twitter - At least the way athletes use it. From Bosh's "Should I stay or should I go" back in May to his "Got a bunch of calls & texts today, what's going on" type message today, it's become a joke. Players who you expect to be leaders and championship-winners shouldn't feel the need to be fawned over by faceless fans.

9. Without LeBron in for sure, Miami is not a title favourite by any stretch - Laid out quite nicely by John Hollinger here (insider), getting Bosh doesn't guarantee anything for the Heat, at least next season. I'd still put them behind Orlando and Boston in the East, depending on what else they do this off-season.

8. To those who say Bosh is overrated and won't be good in Miami: You're wrong. I've used this stat before, but here's the list of 24/10 guys over the last 20 years: Barkley, Bosh, Brand, Duncan, Ewing, Garnett, Malone, Shaq, Hakeem, Robinson, Webber. Granted, he's closer to Webber & Brand than he is to Duncan & Shaq, but that's still quite the list. The people who are questioning his talent are the people who have probably seen him play once over the past 4 years.

7. Boo Bosh? Don't think so - I don't think Chris handled this situation very gracefully (see #10 & #2), but having said that, I won't be booing him when he plays at the ACC this season. He honoured his contract, and played (relatively) hard every game. Needless to say, he's no Vince.

6. Not about Bosh, but best LeBron article I've read so far this summer can be found here.

5. Why I don't think LeBron is joining Bosh & Wade - The 3 players combined to take 4,197 FGA and 2,065 FTA last season. There's simply not enough possessions to go around for all 3 of them.

4. I nearly had a heart attack when I remembered Miami owns Toronto's 1st round pick in 2011. Good god, will they pull a Seguin-to-the-Bruins type of moment? But then I looked it up and realized it's lotto-protected 'til 2015.... so sleep easy, restless Toronto fans.

3. Bosh-less & Turkoglu-less Raptor analysis - So let's assume Bosh & Turkoglu are gone next season. Obviously, there will be new players in the fold, but what was the best Raptor lineup last season that didn't feature either of those two players? Jack-Belinelli-Weems-Johnson-Bargnani was actually the best performing unit on the entire team last season (min. 30 minutes played)

2. Bosh didn't keep his word to the Raptors - On April 21, Bosh said the following: "No matter what happens, me and Bryan (Colangelo) agreed to work together. I think that's important. I respect him as a GM and he respects me as a player. No matter what you do, you always want to do good business in this league. We're always going to talk."

1. Stan Van Gundy is my new hero - SVG already was quite entertaining for me with his sideline antics and crazy voice and awful wardrobe. But this article takes it to a whole new level for me... here are just some highlights:

Re: Bosh joining Wade in Miami - "Well, he's been following him around for two weeks like his lapdog. So that doesn't really surprise me."

Re: LeBron's hour-long special - "Come on, an hour long? It takes 15 seconds to say I've decided to say in Cleveland but we've got another 59 minutes and 45 seconds to, what? Promote LeBron James? As if we don't do that enough."

Re: Kobe/Durant vs Bosh/Wade/LeBron - "You don't hear Kobe and certainly not Kevin talking about their brand. I hear that from the other guys. They're simply basketball players who want to be great players and win games. It's not what I like."

Re: 2010 free agency - "I think these guys did a masterful job of creating suspense and carrying out a great charade."

Ball v.1.38

2010-04-19T15:36:00.001-07:00

A few weeks back I wrote that I will start focusing my posts a lot more on defence. Today, Bryan Colangelo said that nearly every personnel decision he makes this off-season will focus on defence. Let's just assume he reads Caldeford.

Anyways, I'm only bringing this up because I want to lay out the two areas my future posts will be covering, and two things Bryan Colangelo said today have reiterated that these two areas are very important.

1. Defence & Potential Personnel Moves

2. Cap Spending, Luxury Tax & Performance

I will do some work on this second point because of recent emphasis on this by three people: Chris Bosh (in his post-mortem comments), Bryan Colangelo (same), and Michael Grange (who's touched on this subject many times in the past few weeks).

I suspect the correlation between payroll and performance is quite strong in the NBA (probably much stronger than NHL & NFL, perhaps even stronger than MLB). We will hopefully answer that question in the coming weeks.

Ball v.1.37

2010-04-15T05:00:00.001-07:00

According to basketball-reference.com, the Raptors became just the 2nd team this decade to have a losing record with an offensive rating of 111 or higher.

The 27 teams from the decade that posted an offensive rating of 111 or higher averaged 55 wins per season.

In other words, with any kind of average defence, this could have been a special team.

But as we all know, they didn't provide average defence. Their defence was historically bad.

WORST DEFENSIVE RATING

SINCE 2000-01

2008-09 Kings 114.7

2005-06 Sonics 114.4

2008-09 Wizards 113.6

2008-09 Warriors 113.3

2009-10 Raptors 113.12

The Raptors had the 5th worst defence of this decade and the 10th worst defence of all-time. Of the 30 worst defences of all-time, just two, this season's Raptors and the 81-82 Nuggets managed to win 40 games, so that's an accomplishment.

With that being said, every move the Raptors make this off-season should be with an eye on just maintaining their offensive output while greatly improving their defensive performance.

I'll have much more to say on that in the coming months, but off the top of my head, here are a couple off-season ideas:

1. Sign-and-trade Chris Bosh to Houston for Trevor Ariza and Chuck Hayes

2. Sign Marcus Camby to replace Bosh. Overpay him. Do what it takes. Under any circumstances.

3. Sign-and-trade Raymond Felton from Charlotte for Jarrett Jack. Let offence (Calderon) or defence (Felton) win the starting job at the point.

Your lineup would then look like this:

Calderon / Felton at the point

Weems / DeRozan at shooting guard

Ariza / Turkoglu at small forward

Bargnani / Camby / Hayes / Johnson (if you can keep him) as your bigs

You'd be sacrificing a certain amount of offence to get a lot better at defence. I don't expect the team to make all these moves, but the Raptors need to improve on defence at each of the three positions on the floor (point, wing, post), so hopefully they address at least a couple of those spots.

Ball v.1.36

2010-04-14T19:54:00.001-07:00

This was the best offensive team in Raptors franchise history (104.1 pts per game), and it was the worst defensive team in franchise history (105.9 pts against per game).

There really isn't much else to say (at least for tonight).

Ball v.1.35

2010-04-13T06:21:00.000-07:00

Back in August, I cited a John Hollinger article that said the following:

"I guess what I'm saying is I have no idea how this will work out... It's easy to split the difference and say they'll be a .500-ish team, but I don't think that will be the outcome. I'm expecting either a brilliant success or a spectacular failure, and I'm not really sure which."

The lesson: Don't overthink things, just split the difference, predict a 40-42 record and call it a day.

Anyways, I'm going to re-post a lot of what I wrote back on that day, only because it came all the way back in August, and a lot of it has come "true" so to speak (and because the majority of people disagreed with me after I wrote it):

I think the conventional wisdom (especially in these parts) is that the Raptors have guaranteed a playoff spot with their moves this past off-season, and that consensus might be right. But I (and apparently I'm not alone) have my doubts, and here's why: This team has the makings of a truly awful defensive outfit.

QUICK ANALYSIS

I jumped over to basketball-reference.com to do a quick analysis using defensive metrics (quick aside: there's no need to talk about the limitations of defensive stats in basketball, we're all aware of their limitations, but we need to use something). Here's what I found:

The Raptors finished 22nd in Defensive Rating last season. In this decade (9 seasons), 11 teams have made the playoffs when finishing that low in Defensive Rating. Of those 11 teams, 9 of them lost in the 1st round of the playoffs. One of the teams that made it into the 2nd round was the 2005 Sonics, and they were lucky enough to play in the first round against a team that was as bad defensively as they were.

So, a team that was ranked 22nd defensively last season trades Moon/Marion for Turkoglu (defensive downgrade), and Parker/Kapono for Wright/Bellineli/DeRozan (neutral, maybe slight upgrade), while keeping the rest of their starters the same. Doesn't common sense say, at best, they stay the same defensively next season?

I don't know how else to put it: Not one team that's been as bad defensively as the Raptors were last season has made it past the 2nd round of the playoffs this decade.

ONE MORE WAY OF LOOKING AT IT

Here's another way of looking at it: I gathered all of the individual defensive ratings for the starters on each of the Eastern Conference champions since the beginning of this decade. The theory being we should be able to get a good snapshot at what it takes to win in this conference. Here are the ratings (the lower the better)

EASTERN CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS

STARTERS AVG. DEFENSIVE RATING

2009 ORL - 101.8

2008 BOS - 98.4

2007 CLE - 101.2

2006 MIA - 104.4

2005 DET - 101.4

2004 DET - 102.0

2003 NJ - 97.8

2002 NJ - 99.2

2001 PHI - 98.2

Now, I know you're all wondering, what is the average rating for Toronto's projected starters? Well, we don't have a rating for DeRozan, so we'll slot Antoine Wright into the starting SG spot for now, and here's what you get: 109.6.

It's tough to put into words how awful that is. All I can say is, for those of you who think Toronto's success next season is a given, I'd be more than a bit worried about how the team plans on keeping the ball out of their own hoop.

Anyways, so my semi-prediction of a defensive rating of 109.6 comes awfully close to Toronto's current rating of 110.2. That's all I'm saying. Allow me to gloat for a bit.....

.....

Ok I'm done.

WOW...

This team looks good when they play a team that's giving a solid 64% on the floor. Some post-game notes:

- What I'm most impressed with about Amir Johnson: 6-7 FT... just the third time in his career he's hit at least 80% from the line (min. 5 att)

- Calderon's 12th career turnover-less game with at least 10 assists

- Turkoglu with 8+ rebounds for 3rd straight game - longest streak for him since 2007

- Raps had a season-high 37 assists, which ties the NBA season high for road assists. Let's put this in even more perspective: First off, if you're ever tracking assists, track road assists, they're much more "legit." So that being said, since the turn of the century, road teams have put up 37 assists or more just 25 times. That's in over 12,000 games! That means it happens about once every 480 games.

HOME 'COOKIN (OF THE STATS)

Let's take this assist thing a bit further... I'm going to list the leaders in double-digit road assist games (with how many times they've done it at home in parantheses):

Nash 26 (27)

D. Williams 24 (24)

Rondo 18 (26)

Kidd 14 (21)

Other notables:

James 10 (14)

J. Calderon 4 (2)

Devin Harris 0 (7)

M. Ellis 0 (5)

D. Rose 1 (5)

M. Williams 1 (5)

I'm shocked by the Deron Williams thing. I guess the commonly-held belief that assists are easy to come by in Utah isn't necessarily accurate. Rondo getting some love from the home stat guys, and I'm sure Mark Cuban threatens to fire his stat guys if they don't pad Jason Kidd's assist totals.

Ball v.1.34

2010-04-07T06:58:00.000-07:00

A quick playoff race primer:

Toronto owns a one-game lead over the Bulls with 5 to play. They also own the tie-breaker against the Bulls regardless of the one game remaining between the two.

This is not news.

But let's put it into perspective and try to explain why John Hollinger still says the Raptors have an 86% of making the playoffs (though admittedly, that number doesn't take Chris Bosh's injury into account).

Let's consider two scenarios: One where the Raptors beat the Bulls in their head-to-head matchup, and one where the Bulls win.

First, if Toronto beats Chicago on Sunday, for all intents and purposes, the race is over, regardless of what happens in the other games.

Chicago would need to make up 3 games in the remaining part of the schedule. So, they would need to go a minimum of 3-1 against Cleveland, New Jersey, Boston, and Charlotte, while Toronto would need to 1-3 or 0-4 against Boston, Atlanta, Detroit, and New York. What is the likelihood of Chicago going 4-0 combined with Toronto going 1-3? Or the likelihood of Chicago going 3-1 with Toronto going 0-4? I'd say about 2 percent.

Now, let's assume Chicago beats Toronto on Sunday. That would mean Chicago only needs to make up one game to overtake the Raptors in the standings. But that's still easier said than done. Assuming Toronto takes care of business against teams with nothing to play for (Detroit and New York), Chicago still needs to go 3-1 against their opponents to get the playoff spot. Again, this isn't very likely.

The big question is: Can Toronto take care of business against those poor teams without Chris Bosh?

Ball v.1.33

2010-04-06T15:19:00.000-07:00

So, Chris Bosh broke his face. Where do the Raptors go from here?

(Quick aside: I understand the point of view held by our friend Mr. Grange, who wrote yesterday that there really is no difference between finishing 8th or 9th in the East. Grange went on to say that it would have probably been in the franchise's best interests to tank last season and earn a higher draft pick than what they got -- Mr. DeRozan -- and I certainly can't argue with that logic. However, regardless of the futility involved with following this team, what is the alternative? The Blue Jays? So I'm still going to bang out some blog posts until it's all over)

Anyways, as I was saying, where do the Raptors go from here? What questions should be asked at this particular point?

To me, I think there are two practical questions to ask:

1. What will Jay Triano likely do in terms of minute distribution without Bosh?

2. What should Triano do in terms of minute distribution without Bosh?

If he is going to be out for a game, two games, the rest of the season, whatever... I want to know whether the team is making the right call with their new rotation.

ANSWERS

Triano actually has more options than you think, and he showed them last night. There are two obvious or likely choices (Amir Johnson and Reggie Evans), a less likely choice (move Bargnani to the 4 and have Rasho Nesterovic at the 5), and an even less likelier choice (go small and have Hedo Turkoglu play the 4).

First off, the Turk hasn't been all that bad as a 4 in a small lineup this season. He's a -6 this year as a Power Forward (compared to minus a hundred and something overall). Obviously this isn't a potential "extended" solution, but I think you'll see Triano more likely to throw this lineup out there a bit more than before (probably not against Atlanta, but you could see it against Boston and Chicago).

Next, you saw Rasho get some burn last night. Let me be clear, regardless of matchups, Rasho being on the floor should be avoided as much as humanly possible. The Raptors get outscored by 10 points per 100 possessions when Rasho is on the floor. To put that in perspective, I've gone crazy this season at how many minutes DeMar DeRozan gets, and the team only gets outscored by 7 points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor. Anyways, granted Rasho hasn't played all that much, and some of those minutes have come in garbage time, but the numbers back up what my eyes tell me: Rasho can't move anymore, and moving is an essential part of being a useful basketball player.

So, based on this, it seems like the obvious and likely scenario is to have a standard three-man big rotation with Andrea Bargnani, Amir Johnson, and Reggie Evans. I think most people would suggest you should just move Johnson into the starting lineup and go from there, however, the more Evans plays, the more the numbers are starting to say something fairly startling. That's why I think he should start alongside Bargnani. And it's why I think he should start alongside Bosh when/if the time comes.

Let me build my case:

First off, and in simplest terms: With Evans on the floor, the Raptors outscore their opponents by 2.15 points per 100 possessions (best mark on the team).

Why is that possible? Why does it happen? Well, fans and writers (including myself) have commented on how much better Toronto's defence is when Amir Johnson is on the floor, and it's true, the defence is better. Overall, Toronto's defence allows 110 points per 100 possessions (last in the NBA). When Johnson is on the floor, they allow just 107.3 points per 100 possessions (which would rank in a tie for 22nd in the NBA with Phi and NO).

That's good, but it's not that good.

I'm reminded of a classic bit from one of my favourite movies of all-time. Go here (0:33 mark, not safe for work, well unless you work at a really cool place). Amir Johnson makes Toronto's defence better, but he's still not a great defender. In other words, Raptor fans are starving, and Amir is just a regular old cracker, not a Ritz.

Now, getting back to my point, and to further the analogy, Reggie Evans is a Ritz for starving Raptors fans. With Evans on the floor, opponents are scoring just 100.6 points per 100 possessions, a mark that would rank tied for fifth in the NBA with the Milwaukee Bucks. Now that is the best cracker I've ever had!

One more way of looking at it: 82games tracks the PER of the opponent that you are covering on the floor of every minute you play. It's a bit of a flawed statistic (defence isn't 100% individual... if you rotate away from your man to help on some penetration from the off-wing and your man ends up slamming home an alley-oop because someone else failed to rotate down, is it really fair that your man got those two points?) but it still tells stories that seem to make sense. For example, Calderon's opponents produce the highest PER of any individual on the team (which he offsets by having the 2nd highest PER of his own on the team). Anyways, here are Toronto's big men, listed by their Opponent's PER:

Evans 11.1

Bosh 18.1

Bargnani 19.1

Johnson 19.8

Nesterovic 21.6

Reggie gets after it defensively. And that's why I think he should start for the remainder of this season and the playoffs.

One more reason Reggie is quickly becoming a favourite of mine, and it's my Stat of the Day

STAT OF THE DAY

CHARGES PER 40 MINUTES - NBA LEADERS

Nick Collison 1.45

Reggie Evans 1.36

Jose Juan Barea 1.26

Kyle Lowry 1.25

Jared Jeffries 1.20

Quick note: There was a great article I read just the other day about the value of taking a charge, and for the life of me, I can't find it anywhere. But essentially, the idea was this: A charge is more valuable than a block because a block only changes the possession about 50% of the time. So, players who take charges are probably undervalued in most people's eyes.

By the way, here's my quick take on why this Evans-in-the-starting-lineup thing won't happen: Jay Triano is an offensive-minded coach, and Bryan Colangelo is an offensive-minded GM. They would rather have Amir Johnson out there because he can run the floor, and dunk the basketball, and make some pretty plays. If I was selling the Toronto Raptors to the public, I would rather have Johnson out there too. But if I were trying to win games, then Evans would be on the floor, no questions asked.

Ball v.1.32

2010-04-05T13:16:00.000-07:00

Had a reader chime in with this today: "Player A just got lit up by a rookie in yesterday's game, was a -15, while Player B was +14 and almost single handedly got us back into the game!"

May I refer you to the many times I've mentioned the issues with sample sizes and the problem with using one-game plus/minus to make/break arguments.

Ball v.1.31

2010-04-01T08:46:00.001-07:00

Let's compare two players using 82games.com data:

Comparison #1: When Player A has been on the floor this season, his team has outscored their opposition by 7 points. When Player B has been on the floor, they've been outscored by 108 points. Who has the edge?

Comparison #2: If you only counted the score when Player A was on the floor in each game, his team's record would be 28-25. If you only counted the score when Player B was on the floor in each game, the team's record would be 28-38. Who has the edge?

Comparison #3: Player A has turned the ball over 82 times as a result of a bad pass or bad ballhandling. Player B has turned it over 127 times using the same criteria. Who has the edge?

Comparison #4: Player A & Player B have both played over 300 minutes with the same set of four other players. Player A is +6 with those players, Player B is -91. Who has the edge?

Comparison #5: Offensively, the team is 4 points per 100 possessions better when Player A is on the floor. The team is 0.6 points per 100 possessions better when Player B is on the floor. Who has the edge?

Comparison #6: Defensively, the team is 2 points per 100 possessions better when Player A is on the bench. The team is 3 points per 100 possessions better when Player B is on the bench. Who has the edge?

Comparison #7: The team grabs 49% of all available rebounds when Player A is on the floor. The team grabs 48.7% of all available rebounds when Player B is on the floor. Who has the edge?

SUMMARY

I want to post a message left by a reader (edited for length purposes):

Read your blog a bunch. Disagree with you a lot. But still read....

I do not think I have ever seen you use a numbers based argument (other than small sample size 5 man units or defensive ratings / offensive ratings of those sample sizes) to prove Calderon is better (than Jarrett Jack).

The whole sense I got from reading this guy's message was that he probably rips my blog on whatever message board people would thereotically talk about my blog (I highly doubt these so-called message boards exist, but if they did, I suspect he would rip me on them). But he tried to be civil while also ripping me since you know, he was writing on my website.

So anyways, that was the motivation for this quick little summation of everything I've been saying all season long about the Calderon/Jack debate. Or essentially, how it's not even a debate at all (I think you can guess the identities of Player A and Player B).

Calderon dominates in overall plus/minus and offensive metrics, and he even comes out (just slightly) ahead in areas you think Jack should dominate (defensive numbers and rebounding).

Listen, that doesn't mean I'm suggesting Calderon is a better defender or rebounder than Jack. BUT, if Jack were THAT much better of a defender or rebounder than Calderon, you would expect to see the numbers back him up.

So if Jack's presence on the floor isn't having a tangible impact defensively or on the glass, then it's no contest who the better point guard is, because Calderon's presence on the floor has a huge impact offensively.

I hope this clears everything up. You may resume ripping me on your message boards (if said message boards happen to exist).

Ball v.1.30

2010-03-31T05:52:00.001-07:00

Let me start today's entry with an admission: Not for one second did I think the Raptors brass would take Hedo Turkoglu out of the starting lineup. I'm upset that they did, if only because it rendered so much of my work from the last few days useless!

But there's always something to analyze.

Let's start off with a bit of small stuff, let's call them our mini-stats of the day:

I won't give up on my stance that Marco Belinelli deserves more minutes. Over Toronto's last 10 games, the team has been outscored by 61 points overall. However, one player managed to stay in the positive over those 10 games. Belinelli was a +20 over that time.
Over that same time frame, Andrea Bargnani was a team-worst -66, and DeMar DeRozan was a -60

Now let's move on to a bit of technical mumbo-jumbo:

After laying out the Turkoglu data crunching last week, I had a reader ask if it would be possible to consider the defensive side of the ball as well. Let's consider this for a second: If I tell you that a particular 5-man unit has outscored their opposition by 50 points this season, that's really ALL you need to know. The score encapsulates everything in basketball. It takes into account offence and defence. It takes into account ball movement, and turnovers, and shooting, and rebounding... everything. That's why it's a great stat (especially when you're talking about 5-man units). I agree with people who say plus/minus is a limited stat... it only helps explain part of the picture when you're talking about individual players. But when you're talking about 5-man units, I think it's a lot tougher argument to make.

THE NEW STARTING LINEUP

Finally, let's get to the meat of today's post. It won't take too long to analyze, but I want to look at a couple angles:

1. How has this lineup fared throughout the season?

2. How has this lineup fared with Jack as the point guard?

3. Was this move made with an eye towards the post-season?

Answers:

1. I'm so happy. This is the first personnel/coaching decision that's been made all season long that seems to be in concert with the numbers. Well, the first one that I haven't been screaming about making for 40 games (insert note about DeRozan or Jack here).

The Raptors have used 10 unique lineups for at least 60 minutes this season. Of those lineups, this current starting lineup of Calderon, Wright, Weems, Bosh, & Bargnani has been the 2nd best. They are a +12 so far this season.

2. I'm even happier. I'm over the moon. This lineup has performed well with either point guard at the helm.

As I said, the Raptors have used 10 unique lineups for at least 60 minutes this season and the current starting lineup has been the 2nd best among those 10. The best lineup among those 10 is Jarrett Jack playing with the other four starters!

They've outscored their opposition by 19 points in just 62 minutes of court time.

Before I get to my quick little third question, I want to make a point about what these numbers should tell Jay Triano. Don't put Calderon and Jack on the floor together at the end of close games. These numbers should make it easy for the Raptors. The starting unit works well with either of those guys at the helm, just pick one--whomever you think is having a good game--and finish the game with them. Don't ever say, "I can't pick between them, so let's just throw both of them out there." (I'm convinced this is what happens in Triano's head).

3. I told you this would be quick. The current starting lineup has not played a single minute against the Cleveland Cavaliers this season.

Ball v.1.29

2010-03-30T03:35:00.000-07:00

Great message left on Mr. Grange's game recap today:

"I think my enjoyment of the Raptors improves when I concentrate on the game and not on the dollar values in the contract of individual players. I have no idea how much money Diana Krall makes every time I attend a concert - and that works just fine for me. I am trying to imagine a review in the Globe of a singer's performance that is punctuated by the amount of money they were paid to show up. Just doesn't happen, does it?" - Posted by Roarque

Just a simple, but absolutely perfect point made by this Roarque. This comes back to the post I wrote comparing Larry Murphy and Hedo Turkoglu, but for some reason, this city is obsessed with the contracts of the professional athletes who work here.

Is it because we live in the most superficial city in Canada? Is it because so many of us work in the finance industry? Does it come back to Canada's widely-panned inferiority complex? I don't have answers to those questions. All I know is that I'm going to watch games the way Roarque does. It sounds much more relaxing.

STAT OF THE DAY

Toronto's win over Charlotte on Monday night was just their 2nd win over a team with a winning record since January 28th! Two-plus months and 27 games played! They are 2-11 against +.500 teams during that time, and 10-4 against sub-.500 teams. I've said it before and I'll say it again - This team has had a peachy schedule for awhile (note: first time I've ever used "peachy" in a sentence).

BREAK IT DOWN

Toronto has 9 games remaining, and owns the tiebreakers with both Chicago and Charlotte. In my opinion, getting out of the 8th seed is vital to at least having a chance of an entertaining first round. I would peg Toronto's chances of pushing a series to at least 6 games vs Cleveland at about 8.4% (you appreciate the .4, don't you?). I think that probably jumps to about 18.6% if the opponent is Orlando. So what are their chances of moving up to 7th? Of even making the playoffs?

6. Mia 40-34 - 8 games remaining (3 home / 5 away); 0 vs. playoff contending teams

They're only 1.5 games up on Charlotte but this race is essentially over. Every single team Miami faces to close out the season is already out of the playoff picture. There is no reason for the Heat to not finish up on a 6-2 run.

7. Cha 38-35 - 9 games remaining (5 home / 4 away); 5 vs. playoff contending teams

The interesting part of Charlotte's schedule is that they have 2 games remaining against the Bulls--one this Saturday, and their final game of the season on April 14th. If you're a Raptors fan, who do you want to win on Saturday? I have to say, I don't think they have the easiest schedule, and I think they're scuffling a bit. I think they finish on a 4-5 run, leaving them with a 42-40 record.

8. Tor 36-37 - 9 games remaining (5 home / 4 away); 4 vs. playoff contending teams

Couple caveats to throw out about Toronto's schedule: Cleveland is obviously a tough opponent (they play next Tuesday), but by the time the Cavs and Raptors meet, Cleveland might have already locked up top spot in the East. So that could mean an unexpected win for Toronto.

Next, they play Chicago on April 11th (3rd last game of the season). If they have a 3-game lead in the standings on the Bulls by that time, then the Bulls would have nothing to play for. I'm not saying it's likely, but that could be another game where it looks like a toughie, but could be an easy and unexpected win.

Finally, I think most people would look at Toronto's remaining schedule and say the Cle, Bos, Atl stretch is the most important part, but I tend to take an opposite view (naturally). I think this next week (Wed vs Clippers, Sat at 76ers, Sun vs Warriors) is THE time to take care of business. Toronto has handled weak competition well all season long and if they can do it again, they could potentially deliver a knockout blow to the Bulls.

8. Chi 35-38 - 9 games remaining (5 home / 4 away); 7 vs. playoff contending teams

They're one game behind Toronto in the standings, but that's essentially a two game lead because the Raptors own the tiebreaker.

Here's why I think the next five days or so are pivotal: If Toronto goes 3-0 against that weak competition, and Chicago goes 1-2 against Phx, Wsh, Cha (not unlikely). That would give the Raptors a three game lead on the Bulls with six to play, leaving their "magic number" to clinch a playoff spot at 3 ("magic number" - any combination of Toronto wins or Chicago losses).

Then, with the Bulls looking at games against Milwaukee and Cleveland, I think you could make them fold the tents up a bit early.

CONCLUSION

I think it's unlikely Toronto catches Charlotte in the standings (not groundbreaking I know). But you should get a good sense of whether they can in the next week as they need a 3-0 week to have any shot.

Ball v.1.28

2010-03-29T05:12:00.000-07:00

So, if you're a regular reader of this blog, then you should have learned a few things about this Raptors season. You know the yanking of DeMar DeRozan out of the starting lineup came about two months too late. You know the yanking of Jarrett Jack out of the starting lineup came about a month too late. And you also know Jack and Jose Calderon should never (!) be on the floor together.

Sadly, Jay Triano doesn't read this blog.

Sunday vs Miami, the Raptors are on the verge of a key win. Leading by as much as 17 points (with Jack and Calderon never seeing the floor together), Triano sends Jack into the game to replace Sonny Weems with just under 3 minutes to play.

My reaction (think dramatic movie slow motion): "Noooooooooo!"

I've talked about this before. Let's jump all the way back to December 4th, 2009: "Abandon the idea that Jack is a combo-guard - He is a +3 as a point guard, and a -48 as a shooting guard. It doesn't get any simpler than that. The Calderon-Jack backcourt has been about as successful as the Caldeford pairing of years past."

That was nearly four months ago!

Anyways, so what happened next in the Miami game, to me, was no surprise. The Heat went on a 7-0 run to close out the game. Another failure for the Raptors.

The frustrating part about the conclusion of the game (and of the previous one against Denver) was that the disappointing endings masked two impressive games for Toronto. There were many positives to take from the two-game stretch, but perhaps none moreso than the improved 3rd quarter play. Taking DeRozan out of the starting lineup has helped coming out of halftime - Toronto outscored their two opponents by a combined 17 points in the two 3rd quarters.

However, the one glaring shortcoming in each of the two games was the inability to get a good shot late in the game. This is where Hedo Turkoglu is usually counted upon, and his absence was very noticeable. Say what you want about his "stomach virus," but this team needs him late in close games.

Ball v.1.27

2010-03-26T10:45:00.000-07:00

I was reading Doug Smith's pre game chat over at thestar.com, and came across this:

Comment from Colin from Halifax: Did you see the Caldeford post today? Any thoughts?

This is it! Caldeford has gone big time... readers from Halifax, a mention on Doug Smith's pre-game chat... the fame, the jobs, the money, the women... it's all gonna happen! Call up Spice Route, book some tables, order the bottles... we're gonna make it rain tonight! Finally!!!

Reply from Doug: I have no idea what you're talking about and won't go looking for it.

Sorry, where was I?

Ball v.1.26

2010-03-26T03:58:00.001-07:00

If there's one thing Toronto Raptor fans can agree on, it's this: They're stuck with Hedo Turkoglu. He's not going anywhere. Jay Triano isn't taking him out of the starting lineup. You're either going to win or lose with him.

Given that scenario, I've decided to devote my time and this space to finding a way to maximize the Raptors performance. Here's what I've realized after looking at the data: I knew there was a reason I liked Marco Belinelli!

I started my data mining over at basketballvalue.com to look at the most frequently used lineups that included Turkoglu. See if you notice a pattern when I list the shooting guard for each of those lineups (what you'll see in brackets is whether the lineup has a positive or negative plus/minus)

1. DeRozan (negative)

2. DeRozan (negative)

3. Jack (negative)

4. Weems (positive)

5. DeRozan (negative)

6. Wright (positive)

7. Belinelli (positive)

8. Belinelli (positive)

9. Belinelli (positive)

10. DeRozan (negative)

11. Belinelli (positive)

12. Wright (positive)

13. Belinelli (positive)

14. Weems (positive)

15. DeRozan (negative)

Let's summarize:

DeRozan appears 5 times (all negative)
Jack appears once, but in the third most used lineup (negative)
Sonny Weems and Antoine Wright both appear twice (all positive)
Marco Belinelli appears 5 times (all positive)

Before you say to yourself "well, DeRozan and Belinelli both appear five times, that's good..." consider the weighting of Turkoglu's floor time this season: (quick aside: All of you owe me for this... I did some serious Microsoft Excelling to figure this out)

Here is how Turkoglu's floor time has been split up in terms of shooting guards playing alongside him:

DeRozan 45%

Belinelli 16%

Weems 12%

Wright 12%

Jack 10%

(that only adds up to 95%, but the other 5% Turkoglu was playing as a Power Forward)

Before you build an opinion on the above list, let's show the net plus/minus for these guys playing alongside Turkoglu (brackets shows per 48 min +/-)

DeRozan -150 (-8.0)

Belinelli 62 (+9.0)

Weems -26 (-5.0)

Wright 3 (+0.6)

Jack -11 (-2.6)

I think there are two interesting questions to consider after looking at those numbers:

First, how does Turkoglu look if him and DeRozan never play together: Turkoglu would be a +31 overall, +3.6 per 48 minutes. Unfortunately, 45% of Turkoglu's floor time comes with DeRozan on the floor.

Secondly, how good would Turkoglu look if all of his court time came with Belinelli on the floor: Turkoglu would be a +379 overall, +9.0 per 48 minutes. Unfortunately, only 16% of Turkoglu's floor time comes with Belinelli on the floor.

ANALYSIS

There are a few nearly irrefutable truths I'm taking from this analysis:

Since Turkoglu starting at the small forward spot is a given, it is imperative--given this data--that DeMar DeRozan be removed from the starting lineup immediately
Weems & Turkoglu don't seem to play well together on the wings (-5 per 48), so all of Weems' minutes should come only as a substitute for Turkoglu
This is just another piece of evidence that Jarrett Jack should never play at the 2
Belinelli or Wright should be starting at the 2--with the other being the main backup at shooting guard. DeRozan would get minutes where specific situations specifically called for him

Given those conclusions, the breakdown of minutes at shooting guard alongside Turkoglu would look something like this:

Wright 45%

Belinelli 45%

DeRozan 10%

Here's an interesting hypothetical: Based on their performance alongside Turkoglu all season, what would the Turk's plus/minus look like if the above breakdown were used since October?

He would be a +11 with Wright, a +170 with Belinelli, and a -33 with DeRozan, giving him a net plus/minus of +148.

Real World Turkoglu: -119

Hypothetical Caldeford world Turkoglu: +148

Net Difference (the Caldeford effect): +267

So, you know, no big deal, my analysis is worth about 267 points to the Raptors (only about 3.25 points per game). What is that worth in today's NBA? $5 mill?

I'll wait for my check to show up in the mail.

DISCUSSION

I believe this is the most important issue for the Raptors going forward. As mentioned at the outset, the Raptors are going to win or lose with Turkoglu as their small forward, so it behooves them (don't know the last time I used "behoove" in a sentence) to find effective 5-man combinations that include him.

So ultimately, if the Raptors continue to throw out combinations they should know aren't effective, then there's nothing you can say other than Turkoglu's performance has been a failure of coaching and management. There are combinations (Belinelli, Wright) where Turkoglu has proven to be effective, and yet they are only being used sparingly (29% of the time). Conversely, there are combinations where Turkoglu has proven to be ineffective (with DeRozan or Weems), and yet, those combinations are still used more than half of the time. How can that not be considered a failure of coaching?

One other question to consider is this: Why? Why is Turkoglu effective with Wright & Belinelli, and not Weems and DeRozan? Here's one easy possible answer:

3PT FG / 3PT %

Wright & Belinelli: 102 / 36%

Weems & DeRozan: 5 / 18%

Here's another possible answer:

ASSISTS PER 36 MINUTES

Wright & Belinelli: 4.9

Weems & DeRozan: 3.8

That is telling because neither Wright or Belinelli are even considered playmakers, and yet they still have a noticeable edge in assists. I bring the assists up along with the three-pointers because I think there's an obvious difference between the two pairs. Wright & Belinelli have relatively complete games offensively. They can put the ball on the floor, they can make a pass that leads to a bucket... they have relatively high basketball IQs. Weems & DeRozan have very limited games offensively. They can take an open 15-footer, but they don't really understand how to work within an offence, they have low basketball IQs. They get by on athletic ability.

If you look at Turkoglu's last couple seasons in Orlando, you'd see that he was most (and very) effective when Keith Bogans was on the floor as the shooting guard. Bogans is like a Belinelli or Wright... he can spread the floor (with his shooting), and he has a high basketball IQ... he was known for making little plays to help the offence.

Anyways, as I said, I believe this data shows there are pieces available on this roster to make the team and Turkoglu effective. It's just a matter of whether management and coaching can figure it out.

Ball v.1.25 - Playing the Expectations Game

2010-03-23T18:56:00.000-07:00

One day, a one-dimensional player came to Toronto as a high-priced acquistion saddled with big expectations. This player came from one of the best teams in the league, and was riding high following an outstanding playoff performance.

I'm speaking, of course, about Larry Murphy.

Mr. Murphy was an offensive minded defenceman who was traded to the Leafs in 1995 in exchange for young blueliner Dmitri Mironov and a 2nd round pick.

Despite nearly identical production to the year before in Pittsburgh (0.74 points per game in 94-95 compared to 0.79 points per game in 95-96), Murphy was booed mercilessly in Toronto. He was quickly run out of town and was traded to Detroit for future considerations just a year later.

I bring this up for two reasons.

1. I attended the disaster that was the Oklahoma City game. I heard the boos rain down on Hedo Turkoglu, and I heard the (mostly uneducated) hecklers focus their taunts on Toronto's big off-season acquisition.

These fans are booing Turkoglu for the same reason Toronto fans booed Murphy 15 years ago: Totally unrealistic expectations.

I have no idea whether this is a problem unique to Toronto or if it's a problem that afflicts all sports towns. But fans in this city always become totally unrealistic about high-priced talent. Let me try to explain:

If Player A has performed at level X for a number of seasons, and he comes to Toronto at the age of 28 or 30 or 32, let me tell you something... that player isn't getting any better. Level X is the BEST you can hope for for that player, and chances are you will get something much lower than level X.

What is difficult to accept for most of the paying public is that in professional sports, you have to overpay to acquire veteran talent. Free agency ensures this. The public doesn't understand this.

Before I move on to reason #2, let's hammer away at the one key area where I know people disagree with me. "But Turkoglu has been soooooo bad Chris, you've said it yourself!" Ya, but how much different has this season been for Turkoglu compared to last?

He shot 41% from the field last season; shooting 41% this season
He shot 36% from three-point last season; shooting 38% this season
He took 5.4 3s per 40 mins last season; taking 5.1 per 40 mins this season
Last season, his rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks added up to 12.3 per 40 mins
This season, his rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks add up to 12.3 per 40 mins

I can't emphasize this strongly enough. I know how frustrated Raptor fans are with Hedo Turkoglu, but he's giving you exactly what you saw from him last season. And I know that most of you were happy when he signed on the dotted line.

Which brings me to my 2nd point: After Toronto fans patted themselves on the back for running Larry Murphy out of town, a funny thing happened... he played amazingly well for two Stanley Cup winning teams in Detroit. In fact, check this out, it's my stat of the day (and it's not even basketball... bonus points because I still found a way to incorporate plus/minus)

NHL LEADERS

PLAYOFF PLUS/MINUS - 1997 & 1998

Larry Murphy +28

Nicklas Lidstrom +24

Martin Lapointe +14

Steve Yzerman +13

Brendan Shanahan +13

Igor Larionov +13

(of note: Murphy (26) and Lidstrom (27) had nearly identical point totals as well)

So all of a sudden, outside of the hotbed of Toronto, Larry Murphy suddenly isn't a stiff who can't play hockey. He arguably performs equally with the best defenceman of that era (Lidstrom) in helping the Wings win two Cups.

Remember this when Toronto gives away Turkoglu for 10 cents on the dollar at the 2011 trade deadline.

Ball v.1.24 - Looking back

2010-03-21T07:08:00.000-07:00

About two weeks ago, I attempted to forecast into the not-too-distant future to see how the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff race would play out. I looked at each team's schedule, injuries, and most importantly, their recent level of play, to throw out some rough hypotheses on how things would stand following this past weekend.

Quick snarky note: If you want to take a look at the post, just scroll down a couple weeks back to the post that starts with "Ball."

Anyways, I'm not posting this to gloat (well, I am, but I digress)... I'm actually just trying to show that if you pay attention to what's actually happening with each NBA team (and don't go by what you read or what gets hyped up on ESPN and ABC), then you can get a pretty good sense for what's going to happen:

Milwaukee: I wrote "expect a 3-2 record minimum" - They went 4-1

Miami: I wrote "Expect 4-1... at worst 3-2" - They went 3-2

Charlotte: I wrote "Expect a 2-4 record... maybe 3-3" - They went 3-3

Toronto: I wrote "Expect a 2-3 record" - They went 2-3

Chicago: I wrote "Expect 2-4 at best, but I have a feeling it might be 1-5" - They went 1-5

That is all.

Ball v.1.23 - More Crunch Time Analysis

2010-03-15T19:07:00.000-07:00

Quick primer: The other day, we took a look at 82games.com's Crunch Time numbers. They track statistics when there's less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter or overtime in a game where the point differential is 5 points or less. We looked at some high level stuff the other day (i.e. LeBron James is the best player in the NBA... very groundbreaking). Today, we'll dig a bit deeper.

Stat of the Day: Want evidence that the NBA is a perimeter-based game? Only 1 of the top 30 players in terms of clutch FGA is either a power forward or a centre (Dirk Nowitzki).

Other quick highlights:

Dwyane Wade has struggled in crunch time this year. He's a -16 per 48 minutes, is shooting just 32% from the field, and actually scores less often in crunch time than he does throughout the entire course of a game (more on this later)
Minnesota's Jonny Flynn has made 13 buckets in crunch time this season, not one of them has been assisted. Other players with less than 10% of their crunch time FGs assisted: Brandon Roy (6%), and Gilbert Arenas (7%)
Andrea Bargnani has 11 blocks in 103 crunch time minutes. I'm speechless.

BLOCKS PER 48 MINUTES

CRUNCH TIME

Brandon Haywood (the WSH version) 5.2
Andrea Bargnani 5.1
Andray Blatche 4.9
Kendrick Perkins 4.0
Andrew Bogut 3.9
Tim Duncan 3.8

Speaking of Tim Duncan, he can still ratchet it up when he wants to: 22 pts, 21 reb, 4 ast, 4 blk per 48 minutes in crunch time

Finally, I mentioned earlier that Wade actually scores less in crunch time than during the course of an actual game. I came across this when I did a little project for you guys. It's called the Crunch Time Multiplier (or as I like to call it, the Sam Cassell Elephant Balls Dance Ratio).

I took the pts per 48 mins data from 82games.com, and put it alongside the basic pts per 48 mins data for the entire season. Divide column A by column B, and you get a good sense for who ratchets up their production when all the chips are down (the Sam Cassells of the world), and who shies away from the big moments (the Patrick Ewings).

Quick disclaimer: This doesn't include everyone in the NBA. 82games showed only the players who had a minimum of 50 minutes in crunch time.

SAM CASSELL LEADERS

Louis Williams 1.93
Raymond Felton 1.83
Jared Jeffries 1.79
LeBron James 1.78
Steve Nash 1.75
Antoine Wright 1.72

I know what you're thinking. What the hell is LeBron James doing on that list? (Sarcasm never works in writing)

Anyways, couple things:

First, the degree of difficulty in reaching the top of this list when you're already averaging 37 pts per 48 minutes is quite high, so James' 1.78 is probably the best mark in the NBA.
Still, my hat's off to Louis Williams, check out his crunch time percentages: 58% FG, 47% 3pt
That being said, scoring a bunch of points doesn't guarantee effectiveness: Williams is a -11 per 48 minutes of crunch time (1 of only 2 players in the top 10 Sam Cassells to have a minus)
Finally, Antoine Wright... I won't give up on this, he must become the starter at the 2 for the Raptors

PATRICK EWING LEADERS

(min 20 pts per 48 mins overall)

Troy Murphy 0.45
Elton Brand 0.49
Luis Scola 0.51
Charlie Villanueva 0.52
Brook Lopez 0.55
Marcus Thornton 0.58
Andrew Bynum 0.59
Dwight Howard 0.61

Notes:

I put the minimum requirement on this one because the guys at the bottom of the list initially provided no real value (Do you care that Juwan Howard scores only 4 pts per 48 in crunch time as opposed to 12 pts per 48 in regular? Didn't think so)
Common denominators: They're nearly exclusively post players, and they nearly exclusively lack the ability to create their own shot
As I mentioned in an earlier post, "Dwight Howard 0.61" is why the Magic went out to get Vince Carter. And it's working, Howard is a +17 per 48 minutes in crunch time

ANALYSIS

I'm not going to do this (I do have some semblance of a life to uphold), but I bet you'd find a pretty strong correlation between height and this crunch time multiplier. In other words, the majority of the players who fall on the Patrick Ewing side of the scale (multiplier <>1.00) tend to be ball handlers.

This isn't necessarily shocking. I think most people realize that the NBA turns into a "let's spread out and watch this guy drive the lane" in the closing minutes. It's not necessarily beautiful basketball, but it is what it is.

That being said, I'm interested in the players who defy those generalizations.

What is it about Erick Dampier that makes him jump from 13 to 19 pts per 48 minutes in crunch time (1.48 multiplier)?

Conversely, how in the world does Dwyane Wade's scoring decrease when the game is on the line (from 36 to 29 pts per 48)?

Interestingly enough (or not), I think Dampier and Wade's situations are related. Jason Kidd's basketball IQ is off the charts. This is not news. He knows teams will overplay on Jason Terry and Dirk Nowitzki when the game is on the line, so he probably finds Erick Dampier for easy looks, which the veteran (key word there) Dampier converts.

I think Dwyane Wade's basketball IQ is at the same level as Kidd's (which other people might not agree with). Ever since his days at Marquette, you could tell he had a gift for seeing the floor, and making the right decisions with the ball. When you surrounded him with veterans in 2006 (Payton, Walker, Posey, O'Neal... i.e. Dampier types), you saw the results. He was perhaps the most clutch player in the NBA.

This season, surrounded with players who don't necessarily share the same basketball IQ (Chalmers, Beasley, Richardson), his scoring is down in crunch time and he's a -16.

So, as I said, I think it comes down to basketball IQ. In Dallas, Erick Dampier, Jason Kidd, and company have it, while Dwyane Wade's supporting cast in Miami definitely doesn't.

FYI: RAPTOR CRUNCH TIME MULTIPLIERS

Antoine Wright 1.72

Hedo Turkoglu 1.34

Jarrett Jack 1.11

Andrea Bargnani 1.08

Chris Bosh 1.02

Jose Calderon 0.81

Ball v.1.22 - Lineup Analysis

2010-03-15T14:39:00.000-07:00

Question from regular reader Sivart: "I am sure it has been asked before, but is there anyway a lineup with Calderon, Hedo, and Bargnani can even be an average defensive team?"

First of all, great question, and thanks for the idea for content!

To answer your question directly, the best defensive lineup that includes those three players is Calderon-Belinelli-Turkoglu-Bosh-Bargnani, who allow 102 points per 100 possessions (min. 20 minutes played). So yes, at their very best, they can be an average defensive lineup (for 29 minutes or so).

But this leads me to another question, if we looked at the best and worst Raptor defensive lineups, would any trends reveal themselves?

(Quick aside: After watching more NBA basketball in the past two years than I have in my entire life, I've come to the conclusion that defence is everything. The Lakers are the best team in the West because of defence. The Cavs, Magic, Celts, and Hawks are top 4 in the East because of defence. Charlotte became a team when Larry Brown finally taught them to defend. Phoenix is an also ran because they don't defend. It just goes on and on and on, even on an individual level. I'll take Andrew Bogut over Andrea Bargnani any day of the week even though Bargnani is exponentially more talented offensively. Anyways, this has turned into a longer aside than I thought, but long story short, I'm going to focus moreso on defence from now on because I think it's the thing that is least understood about basketball from a fan's point of view)

Disclaimer: The order of these isn't all that important (because of sample sizes, you're going to get big variances in the numbers). What is important is if you see certain people (or don't see certain people) very often.

Another disclaimer: If you play 40 minutes a night, you're going to show up in most lineups regardless (So, this practice doesn't reveal much about Chris Bosh... well it can, but we'll get to that).

One more disclaimer: Reggie Evans hasn't played enough to show up in these lineups (and it might not matter because Jay Triano doesn't care to play him lately), but the early numbers show Evans has been one of Toronto's best defenders. Sure, him and Amir Johnson do much of the same thing, but maybe they should both get legitimate minutes at the expense of Andrea Bargnani. More on this later.

TORONTO'S WORST DEFENSIVE LINEUPS

Calderon-Belinelli-Wright-Johnson-Bargnani 155

Calderon-DeRozan-Wright-Bosh-Bargnani 144

Calderon-Jack-Wright-Bosh-Bargnani 140

Jack-DeRozan-Turkoglu-Bargnani-Nesterovic 130

Calderon-Jack-Turkoglu-Bosh-Bargnani 126

Jack-Belinelli-Weems-Bosh-Bargnani 123

Calderon-Wright-Turkoglu-Bosh-Bargnani 122

Jack-DeRozan-Turkoglu-Johnson-Bargnani 117

Jack-Belinelli-Turkoglu-Bosh-Bargnani 116

Jack-DeRozan-Turkoglu-Bosh-Bargnani 116

Before we do some analysis, let's look at the best defensive lineups

TORONTO'S BEST DEFENSIVE LINEUPS

Banks-Belinelli-Turkoglu-Johnson-Bosh 66

Jack-DeRozan-Weems-Johnson-Bargnani 67

Calderon-Jack-Wright-Johnson-Bosh 71

Calderon-Wright-Turkoglu-Johnson-Bosh 83

Calderon-Belinelli-Weems-Johnson-Bosh 86

Jack-DeRozan-Turkoglu-Bosh-Nesterovic 94

Jack-Wright-Weems-Bosh-Bargnani 95

Calderon-Belinelli-Wright-Johnson-Bosh 97

Jack-DeRozan-Wright-Johnson-Bargnani 98

Calderon-Wright-Weems-Johnson-Bosh 99

ANALYSIS

First of all, can we all stop saying that Jarrett Jack is this wonderful defensive point guard compared to the atrocious Jose Calderon. Perception isn't always reality. Jack appears among the best lineups 5 times, and the worst lineups 7 times. Calderon appears 5 times in the best lineups, and 5 times in the worst lineups.

If Calderon truly was an awful defender, and Jack truly was better, then you'd see different best/worst ratios for those players.

In fact, I like the idea of the best/worst ratio (a ratio of how often someone appears among the top 10 defensive lineups compared to the worst)... let's take a look:

Johnson 8 / 2

Bosh 8 / 7

Wright 6 / 4

Calderon 5 / 5

Jack 5 / 7

Weems 4 / 1

Belinelli 3 / 3

DeRozan 3 / 4

Turkoglu 3 / 5

Bargnani 3 / 10

I'll take three key results from this analysis:

Amir Johnson, Chris Bosh, Antoine Wright, and Sonny Weems are likely Toronto's best defenders
Hedo Turkoglu and (unquestionably) Andrea Bargnani are likely Toronto's worst defenders
Johnson & Bosh are the frontcourt all five times Calderon appears in the best 10... while Wright appears with Calderon four times... in other words, put Calderon with the right people on the floor, and there's no problem defensively. Put him with the wrong people (i.e. Turkoglu and/or Bargnani, as Sivart correctly pointed out earlier, and you've got trouble)

Ball v.1.21 - Crunch Time Stats

2010-03-13T16:10:00.000-08:00

82games.com has finally released its sortable crunch time statistics. A quick primer: They accumulate per minute statistics for any game with less than 5 minutes left during a 4th quarter or overtime where the point differential is 5 points or less.

Here are the league-wide highlights:

LeBron's line is a highlight unto itself: 65 pts, 17 reb, 7 ast, 2 blk, 3 stl... and 26 free throw attempts per 48 minutes. The next closest point total in the NBA is Kobe (50), the next closest free throw total is Carmelo (20)
This is why Orlando got Vince Carter: 41 pts (7th in NBA) and +31 (3rd in NBA) per 48 minutes
This is why Dallas got Jason Kidd: He averages a triple double in crunch time! 13 pts, 11 reb, 10 ast, 48% 3PT, +26 per 48 minutes
As impressive as the Kidd line is, it's not that surprising. You almost expect that kind of line from him. Here's a line that is surprising: 26 pts, 10 reb, 9 ast, 4 stl, 2 blk, +18 per 48 minutes. Well it's surprising because of the name in front of the line. Who do you think put it up? My first guesses would have been: Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo, Deron Williams, or Derrick Rose... Wrong on all counts. The answer is: Baron Davis. Apparently, he hasn't been mailing it in all year

Here are the Raptor highlights:

Antoine Wright has not missed a free throw in crunch time. He's one of many impressive clutch free throw shooters on the team - Bosh (89%), Bargnani (87%), Jack (86%), Turkoglu (86%), and Calderon (80%)
Jack does a great job getting to the line (15.5 FT - 12th in NBA), but he should be focusing even more on getting to the rim. Why? He's shooting 11% from three-point land. 11%.
Raps coaches, broadcasters, and writers always say that despite Turkoglu's overall performance, his value is what he brings to the team in crunch time... do the numbers back them up? 24 pts, 8 reb, 2 ast, 37% FG, 26% 3PT, +17... my analysis: He's producing in terms of putting up points and getting to the line, but the assist total is a bit depressing. What happened to the vaunted pick & roll with Turkoglu and Bosh, or the pick & pop with Turkoglu and Bargnani that was talked about so much in the off-season?

Ball v.1.20

2010-03-13T15:32:00.000-08:00

Jay Triano's favourite crunch time lineup seems to be the one with his two point guards on the floor as his backcourt. He has said he likes having three ball handlers on the floor.

I've written before about how bad the Raptors are with Jack and Calderon as the backcourt. Here is another way of putting it / showing it:

That lineup (Calderon-Jack-Turkoglu-Bosh-Bargnani) is the worst defensive lineup in the NBA among units that have played at least 100 minutes together. They allow 126.1 points per 100 possessions.

Having a poor defensive lineup is one thing, relying on it (time and time again) in crunch time is another. It's just one of the reasons why I'm starting to wonder if Jay Triano is a legitimate NBA coach.

Ball v.1.19

2010-03-11T09:41:00.001-08:00

A reader pointed out that Doug Smith is suggesting in his blog that Calderon and Wright might enter the starting lineup on Friday in place of Jarrett Jack and DeMar DeRozan.

For those of you that have seen Alice in Wonderland, I'm doing the dance that Johnny Depp does at the end of the movie right now (that's how happy I am).

For those of you who come here in search of valid statistical notes instead of pointless pop culture drivel, I'll have you know that the Raps are +69 this season with Calderon & Wright as their backcourt.

That is all.

Ball v.1.18

2010-03-11T08:08:00.000-08:00

DeRozan game-worst -27 last night... it's all I'm going to say on the topic. I've already made my point. Anyone who watches basketball knows I'm right (except for maybe Bryan Colangelo and Jay Triano).

Anyways, about 10 days ago, I wrote the Raptors would finish the season with a 41-41 or 40-42 record. Clearly, nothing has happened to change that prediction.

But here's the question: Are these guys going to miss the playoffs entirely? Here's the bottom half of the Eastern Conference playoff race:

5. Mil 34-29

6. Tor 32-31

6. Cha 32-31

6. Mia 33-32

---

9. Chi 31-32

FROM NOW THRU NEXT WEEKEND...

Mil: Uta, Ind, @Lac, @Sac, @Den

Tor: @GS, @Por, Atl, Okc, @NJ

Cha: Lac, @Orl, @Ind, Okc, @Atl, @Mia

Mia: Chi, Phi, SA, Orl, Cha

Chi: @Orl, @Mia, @Mem, @Dal, Cle, @Phi

ANALYSIS

Mil: Peaking at the right time (9-1 in last 10); facing only two winning teams and have just one back-to-back; their core is healthy; tightly defined 9-man rotation; should expect a 3-2 record minimum

Tor: Playing poor basketball (3-7 in last 10); facing three winning teams, and playing two back-to-backs (a potential disaster NJ game on 2nd end of a back-to-back looms large); Chris Bosh working himself back to 100% health; can't decide on a tight rotation (11 players saw floor vs LA); should expect a 2-3 record, but 3-2 (or 1-4) is possible

Cha: The best defensive team in the league - only one of their last 7 opponents has scored more than 90 pts; Tough stretch of basketball - 6 games, 4 winning teams, 2 back-to-backs; Fully healthy; My favourite 8-man rotation in the NBA (Felton/Augustin at PG, Jackson, Wallace, Diaw on the perimeter, Tyrus Thomas, Chandler, and Ratliff inside... now that team can defend!); despite the fact they're playing well, expect a 2-4 record during this stretch (maybe 3-3)

Mia: Talent-wise, has the best player but the worst roster among these teams; Easily the best schedule - 5 home games, 0 back-to-backs; 2 pivotal games with Cha and Chi; Beasley left last night's game with an injury; Expect 4-1 (at worst, 3-2)

Chi: Shouldn't even be in this position, but trading of Salmons, and injuries have ruined their depth; Lost 5 straight games and it could get worse; Easily the toughest schedule in the group - 5 road games, 3 unique sets of back-to-backs (incl. games at Mia and at Dal on the back halves of those back-to-backs); J. Noah is out indefinitely, L. Deng got hurt last night and won't play tonight vs Orl, T. Gibson might not play tonight, B. Miller is playing hurt... meaning essentially it's Derrick Rose and a bunch of sluff on the floor (with apologies to K. Hinrich); Expect 2-4 at best, but I have a feeling it might be 1-5

CALDEFORD'S PROJECTED STANDINGS AS OF NEXT SUNDAY

5. Mil 37-31

6. Mia 37-33

7. Tor 34-34

8. Cha 34-35

-----

9. Chi 32-37

Keep in mind, Toronto plays Mia, Cha, and Chi before the end of the season, games that could mean huge things in the standings.

I guess all I'm saying after looking at the respective situations of each team is this: Chicago is messed up and picked the wrong time to have key injuries (and to trade away one of your top six players). I really can't see them sticking in this (unless D. Rose turns into C. Paul, which he does from time to time). So, on the one hand, Toronto is probably assured of a playoff spot.

On the other hand, Milwaukee and Charlotte are playing much, much better than Toronto, and should likely finish ahead of them in the standings. So, as long as you're excited about a first-round exit at the hands of Cleveland or Orlando, then yes, you should be excited that the Raptors will, in fact, make the playoffs.

Ball v.1.17

2010-03-10T17:29:00.000-08:00

Stat of the Day: Toronto has wins over Cleveland and Los Angeles already this season, and they've blown games against each of those teams that they should have won as well. Regardless, Toronto is one of only 8 teams in the NBA to have beaten the two best teams in the league this season:

Charlotte (has beaten Cle 3 times already)

Dallas (has beaten LA twice)

Boston

Houston

Memphis

Orlando

Toronto

Utah

What do I take from this? Maybe Stephen Jackson is the only person crazy enough in the NBA to take on LeBron and win... a Charlotte-Cleveland 1st round series could be pretty interesting.

Ball v.1.16

2010-03-09T07:34:00.000-08:00

Here is a list of the 25 highest-paid players in the NBA, sorted by how far they've gone in the playoffs:

WON NBA TITLE
Ray Allen
Kobe Bryant
Tim Duncan
Kevin Garnett
Pau Gasol
Shaquille O'Neal
Paul Pierce
Dwyane Wade

(interesting note ((to me)): Tim Duncan is the only player listed above to have won the title playing without anyone else on the list)

NBA FINALIST
Dwight Howard
LeBron James
Rashard Lewis
Kenyon Martin
Dirk Nowitzki

CONFERENCE FINALIST
Carmelo Anthony
Joe Johnson
Andrei Kirilenko
Jermaine O'Neal
Amare Stoudemire

2ND ROUND
Gilbert Arenas
Vince Carter
Yao Ming

NEVER WON A PLAYOFF SERIES
Chris Bosh
Tracy McGrady
Michael Redd

So, how many ways can we put this: Over half of the 25 highest paid players in the league have played in the NBA Finals... Even Vince Carter has won a playoff series before and Chris Bosh hasn't...

Here's one other thing I noticed: If there's one common denominator between the guys at the top of this list, contrasted with the guys at the bottom, it's that almost all of the guys at the top are great players on both ends on the floor, while the guys at the bottom are somewhat one-dimensional.

Ball v.1.15

2010-03-08T16:01:00.000-08:00

I've come to grips with the fact the Raptors will keep Jarrett Jack as their starting point guard. I've gone through the all the required "steps":

Denial - This is when I thought the starting lineup was just a temporary thing while Calderon returned to 100%...

Anger - This is when the Raptors were going through their hot stretch and everyone thought Jarrett Jack was the greatest thing since sliced bread...

Bargaining - I tried finding any statistic to prove to someone that Jarrett Jack was not a good point guard... no one listened.

Depression - I didn't post for weeks on end. I even made up a story about going to the Olympics to justify my lack of work.

Acceptance - This is where I'm at now. Jarrett Jack is Toronto's starting point guard. I've moved on.

And this is what I've moved on to (and something I won't give up on this season): It's time to sit DeMar DeRozan down for this season. I've talked about it before, and I won't give up on it. It just makes too much sense. Here are the arguments:

1. It's too hard to be a rookie guard in this league - Among the playoff contending teams in the East, there's only one successful rookie guard (Brandon Jennings), and even he has hit a massive wall of late. The Raptors can't afford to be playing someone who's in over his head, and DeRozan clearly is...

2. He's lost the one other trick in his bag - Other than driving to the net, the only other thing DeRozan does offensively is take long 2s. Other than the fact that those are the most inefficient shots in basketball, DeRozan is also the worst in the league among shooting guards when it comes to those shots... take a look:

LONG TWO-POINT JUMPERS FG%
AMONG SHOOTING GUARDS

D. DeRozan 34%
K. Martin 35%
J. Stackhouse 37%
D. Jones 38%
D. Wade 38%
M. Ellis 38%
*min 4 att per 40 min

Here's the thing too... Martin, Wade, & Ellis probably take the majority of these shots under extreme defensive pressure, compared to DeRozan, Stack, and Dahntay Jones, who probably were taking open Js.

3. He's the least effective player on the Raptors, according to one metric - If you gauge by on-court plus/minus, no one has been less useful for Toronto this season:

ON COURT +/-
PER 48 MINS

Wright 2.3
Johnson 2.2
Belinelli 1.2
Bosh 0.8
Weems 0.8
Calderon 0.7
Evans 0.0
Jack -1.5
Bargnani -1.6
Turkoglu -2.2
DeRozan -6.0

This is obviously not the be-all and end-all when it comes to statistics. However, one thing is striking about this list: All of the players fall within a certian range (-2.5 to 2.5). It's a five-point range which pretty much says, "We're all NBA players, and when we're on the floor over the course of a full season, you're not going to win or lose by too much." And then there's DeRozan... 6 points per 48 minutes... that's insane. And it's way too much of a hole to be giving up when playoff spots are on the line.

THE SOLUTION

I'm so jacked about this problem, I'm going to give you the goods on three possible solutions. If you hold the four other spots of the starting lineup constant (Jack, Turkoglu, Bosh, Bargnani), and just look at the stats of the five-man units for all of the possible shooting guards, here is what you get:

DeRozan 314 mins, -72, 102 off eff, 113 def eff
Weems 83 mins, +4, 106 off eff, 110 def eff
Belinelli 39 mins, +24, 138 off eff, 117 def eff
Wright 35 mins, +6, 124 off eff, 104 def eff

Weems, Belinelli, and Wright have all been relatively successful playing with the starting lineup (with all the obvious notes about sample size and not accounting for competition). Belinelli or Wright provide the stronger offensive punches, Weems or Wright provide the best defensive punches.

One thing is for sure: DeRozan provides the worst overall option.

Ball v.1.14

2010-03-05T09:46:00.000-08:00

Addendum to Stat of the Day:

Only 5 players in NBA history have ever averaged 24 points and 10 rebounds per game while also shooting over 50% from the field and 80% from the line:

Larry Bird 1984-85

Bob Lanier 1976-77

Julius Erving 1975-76

Bob McAdoo 1974-75

Oscar Robertson 1962-63

My point? Other than that these are also all Hall of Famers... Chris Bosh is having a once-in-a-generation season, and will join some pretty exclusive company if he can improve his free throw shooting (79%) by just a bit.

Ball v.1.13

2010-03-05T09:36:00.000-08:00

Stat of the Day:

Only 13 players in NBA history have ever averaged at least 24 points and 11 rebounds in a season, while also shooting at least 52% from the field... they are:

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (7x)

Charles Barkley (4x)

Walt Bellamy

Wilt Chamberlain (6x)

Patrick Ewing

Artis Gilmore

Bob Lanier (2x)

Karl Malone (5x)

Moses Malone (2x)

Bob McAdoo (2x)

Shaquille O'Neal (8x)

Hakeem Olajuwon (2x)

David Robinson (2x)

Only one of those players (Gilmore) is not a current or future member of the Hall of Fame.

My point? Chris Bosh (24.5 pts, 11.4 reb, 52.5 fg%) is having a once-in-a-generation type season.

The last non-Shaq (i.e. non-freak-of-nature) season like this was Olajuwon's 93-94 campaign, which is generally regarded as one of the best seasons ever by a post player.

That's all I'm saying.

Ball v.1.12

2010-03-02T10:06:00.000-08:00

To further the points made in my previous post:

The most common theme about Toronto's resurgence in the middle part of the season was that their defence improved. It did, but again, this has more to do with schedule than anything else. Consider:

During the 11-17 start:

Toronto opponents had an average offensive efficiency rank of 15th in the NBA
They faced 11 teams ranked in the top 10 offensively (39%)

During the following 20-7 stretch:

Toronto opponents had an average defensive efficiency rank of 20th in the NBA
They faced 3 teams ranked in the top 10 offensively (11%)

During the latest 0-4 stretch:

Toronto opponents had an average offensive efficiency rank of 9th in the NBA
They faced 2 teams ranked in the top 10 offensively (50%)

So, start of the season, they faced a good-to-great offensive team nearly every other game, and middle of the season, they faced a good-to-great offensive team once every 10 games.

If that doesn't explain everything you need to know about the Raptors season, well, then... (insert witty comment here).

Ball v.1.11

2010-03-02T05:48:00.000-08:00

The Olympics were a once-in-a-lifetime experience, and a once-in-a-lifetime workload. I'm exhausted, and honestly, I wasn't very interested in what the Raptors were doing during the Games.

Quick aside: To those "hardcore" hoops writers that thought it gave them cred that they were more interested in a Golden State-L.A. game than a home-country Olympics... get some perspective. First, it doesn't make your writing or your insight any better. Second, it's just stupid.

Now, to the Raptors. I don't think anyone should be surprised by this stretch of play. If anything, I think the Bosh injury will be a detriment to the (numerous) delusional Raptor fans. They'll use the injury as an excuse for these losses, when in reality, the team probably would have lost most of these games regardless. Here's the cold hard truth:

1. The Raptors aren't as bad as their 11-17 start.
2. The Raptors aren't as good as the 18-6 stretch that followed.

The common denominator between those two points is the schedule. In the early part of the season, the Raptors had a very hard schedule. In the middle portion of the year, they had a very easy schedule. It really is as simple as that.

You can give the Raptors credit for beating teams they're supposed to beat. Toronto is 20-5 against teams with losing records...

STAT OF THE DAY: Only the Bucks (21-7) and Lakers (24-4) have more wins against losing teams this season.

But the flip side to that equation is Toronto's record against good teams. They have just 11 wins against winning teams this season.

FLIP SIDE STAT OF THE DAY: Toronto (11-23) ranks 22nd in the NBA in wins against winning teams.

OUTLOOK

Looking at Toronto's stretch run in this context, they have 23 games remaining, 11 against losing teams, and 12 against winning teams. Assuming their season-long winning percentages against losing & winning teams stays relatively consistent, that would suggest a 43-39 year-end record for the Raptors.

MY TAKE

That model is assuming the Raptors continue to shred losing teams at an 80% clip, while also going 4-8 in the following games:

@ LAKERS
@ BLAZERS
HAWKS
THUNDER
JAZZ
NUGGETS
@ HEAT
@ BOBCATS
@ CAVALIERS
CELTICS
@ HAWKS
BULLS

Not be Dennis Downer, but I don't see four wins coming out of that.

My prediction: Toronto goes on a season-ending downturn (aggravated by Chris Bosh, Hedo Turkoglu, and Jose Calderon's struggles with staying healthy), ending with a 41-41 or 40-42 record.

Ball v.1.10

2010-02-23T22:30:00.000-08:00

Over Toronto's last 27 games, they have lost by more than 10 points just once.

(Prediction of the day: This will be invalidated in one of the next two games)

Ball v.1.9

2010-02-10T22:32:00.000-08:00

Two lists:

TORONTO RAPTORS
BEST HOME WINNING PERCENTAGE

2009-10 .769 (20-6)
2006-07 .732 (30-11) *
2000-01 .659 (27-14) *
1999-00 .634 (26-15) *
2007-08 .610 (25-16) *
2001-02 .585 (24-17) *
*made playoffs

W-L AFTER FIRST 20 GAMES OF THE SEASON

1. CLE 27-6
2. LAL 24-10
3. TOR 22-10
4. UTA 20-11
T5. DEN 20-12
T5. OKC 20-12

Other records of note:

CHI 18-12
BOS 16-14
PHX 16-17

DISCUSSION

The Raptors were 9 games back of Boston after the first quarter of the season. They're now 4 games back
Schedules matter... yes, the Raptors are beating good and bad teams of late, but playing bad teams helps build your confidence, as opposed to continually playing good teams (which hurts it)... for further evidence of this point, see the record of the Suns, who had a creampuff schedule early on, and have crashed back to earth

Ball v.1.8

2010-02-07T20:29:00.000-08:00

In the past, I've talked about (and tried to quantify) how rare of a season Chris Bosh is having. A few people chuckled when I wrote some of the things I wrote because they said there was no way Bosh could keep up his level of production.

They were wrong. Bosh has been amazingly consistent all season, and he's even slightly improved his performance of late. But back to the "rare" comment, consider:

Since the turn of the decade, only four players have averaged at least 24 points and 11 rebounds in a season:

2003-04 Kevin Garnett * ^ (22) ---LCF---

2002-03 Shaquille O'Neal * (11) ---L2ND---

2001-02 Tim Duncan * ^ (7) ---L2ND---

2000-01 Shaquille O'Neal * (11) ---WON NBA TITLE

2000-01 Chris Webber * (72) ---L2ND---

* denotes 1st team all-NBA

^ denotes NBA MVP

( ) denotes rank in Bill Simmons' Book of Basketball NBA Hall of Fame pyramid

--- --- denotes how the player fared in the post-season

How's that for a confusing, unreadable list? There's a few points I'm trying to make here:

Just four guys in an entire decade is pretty impressive
It'll be even rarer if Bosh can have a season like this AND lose in the first round of the playoffs.... how rare you ask? I'm glad you asked!

STAT OF THE DAY

You have to go back 16 years to find a player that averaged at least 24 points and 11 rebounds in a season that didn't at least make it to the 2nd round of the playoffs (Shaquille O'Neal, 93-94). After that, there were 14 seasons (half of them belonging to Shaq) where a player had averaged a 24/11 and made it at least to the second round. ANYWAYS, back to the bullets

Based on the list above, it seems that it would be impossible to justify not having Bosh on the all-NBA 1st team this season if he keeps up with these numbers

But I think I can justify it. Despite the fact that Bosh is having a season that rivals those of recent hall of famers, I don't think he's an all-NBA 1st teamer. Here's why:

If we assume that LeBron James' spot as one of the all-NBA forwards is etched in stone (a safe assumption), that leaves one spot open for another forward among those listed below.

C. Bosh - 24 pts, 11 reb, 2 ast, 26.1 PER

C. Anthony - 30 pts, 7 reb, 3 ast, 24.6 PER

K. Durant - 30 pts, 7 reb, 3 ast, 25.2 PER

D. Nowitzki - 25 pts, 8 reb, 2 ast, 23.0 PER

T. Duncan - 20 pts, 11 reb, 3 ast, 27.3 PER

Here's a question: Is it possible to leave off Anthony or Durant if one of them ends up winning the scoring title? Just twice in the past 15 years has the league's scoring leader not made 1st team all-NBA (TMac 03-04, Iverson 01-02).

Here's another question: What's more impressive? A 24-11 on a 45-win team or a 25-8 on a 55-win team? That's the question you'd have to answer if you were choosing between Bosh and Nowitzki.

And one last question: What if I told you the NBA's best player of the last decade was actually having a career season? There'd be no way you could keep him off, right? The answer I assume would be, "Kobe isn't on this list." (that would be your answer if you don't know basketball). The other answer I would expect is: "Tim Duncan isn't having a career year." But the numbers say otherwise (Duncan's career ranks in parantheses)

27.2 PER (1st)

58% TS% (t-1st)

12% Off Reb% (1st)

20% Tot Reb% (t-1st)

9% TO% (t-1st)

119 Off Rating (1st... prev. best - 114)

Colour me shocked. Who would have thought that one of the greatest players of all-time could be having his most efficient season at age 33? The only reason his counting numbers aren't that impressive is because his minutes have been monitored closely by Gregg Popovich this season. Listen, I don't expect stats like True Shooting Percentage and Offensive Rating to suddenly gain credence and push Duncan onto the 1st team. I'm just saying... it's pretty amazing stuff what he's doing this season (and I'd put him on the team if I had a vote).

Still not convinced? Well, how about a bonus stat of the day:

27+ PER

33 YEARS OLD OR OVER

Karl Malone (3x)

Michael Jordan

Tim Duncan

Now THAT is an impressive list.

Ball v.1.7

2010-02-06T08:07:00.001-08:00

This edition of T.Jose Caldeford coming at you live from Vancouver... I'll be out here for the Olympics but I'll still get my Raptors fix as much as possible (9 a.m. local gametime tomorrow!).

Anyways, the other day, Mr. Grange wrote about Andrea Bargnani's struggles in back-to-back games. This is a useful stat. Useful in that it confirms some qualitative analysis (Bargnani is not in as good of shape as he could be)... Even better, Mr. Grange wrote about those struggles BEFORE Bargnani played the second half of a back-to-back, and Bargnani followed the script almost perfectly (6-for-17 shooting from the field).

Quick Stat of the Day: I say "almost perfectly" because Il Mago still swatted away four New Jersey shot attempts. It was only the 11th time in his career he's had at least four blocked shots in a game (and just the second time this season). Most encouraging: In both instances this season, Bargnani had his "block party" so to speak in games when he wasn't shooting very well. In other words, perhaps he was looking to impact the game or help the team win in any way possible... not just the way he usually does it (making shots).

Anyways, Mr. Grange's post led me to a question: Do any other Raptors have statistical trends that show they struggle with or without rest between games? Let's check it out:

Chris Bosh shoots in the high 50s with 2 or more days rest, he shoots at around 48% on the second night of a back-to-back (48% is still good... high 50s is crazy)
Hedo Turkoglu's points, rebounds, and assists averages are all lower on 0 days rest compared to his seasonal average
Jarrett Jack shoots 40% from the field with no rest, and around 50% with 1 or more days rest
DeMar DeRozan shoots 42% from the field with no rest, and around 50% with 1 or more days rest
Antoine Wright's best games have come with no rest
Weird trend of the day: Jose Calderon shoots 94% from the line on 0 days rest, 80% on 1 day, 67% on 2+ days .... Amir Johnson shoots 82% from the line with no rest, and about 50% on 1+ days rest .... why are these guys better from the line with no rest?... (this is when you call chime in: small sample size)

Anyways, is there an underlying trend, a point I'm trying to make? Well, I don't think anyone would say Chris Bosh or Jarrett Jack or DeMar DeRozan is "out of shape," despite their shooting variances. I guess my point is, sometimes it's easy to find a stat that confirms an opinion you hold of someone (i.e. Andrea Bargnani is out of shape)... but does that stat always tell the whole story?

Ball v.1.6

2010-02-03T13:35:00.000-08:00

Have to say really quickly that I'm really loving the comments I'm getting from readers. Even when people are disagreeing with what I'm writing, the level of discourse is really encouraging ("the level of discourse is really encouraging" might be one of the geekier things I've written in the past few years but I digress). People are using statistics to strengthen their points, they're citing small sample sizes, they're talking about unaccounted factors... I've said this before, but my economics professors would be proud.

ANYWAYS, got this email from a reader named Stephen (more on him later), but here is the post (somewhat edited for length):

Chris,

First off, I love your blog. Always interesting and informative. Analysis supported by facts as well as opinion. Excellent.

I generally agree with you about Calderon being the better of the two but I also wonder if Calderon benefits from the fact that he plays most (not all) of his minutes against bench players while the opposite is true for Jarrett Jack. My totally non-stats based opinion is that they both have different things to offer. Calderon seems to be a better floor general, better shooter and a better ball handler. Jack is a little bigger and stronger, a better defender, tends to penetrate and get to the rim more consistently and also seems to co-exist a little more effectively with Turkoglu.

I think that last point has to do with Calderon being a more natural point guard and needing the ball more of the time. Jack seems to be OK with deferring to Turkoglu more often.

One last point. Even though Calderon is arguably the better point guard I wonder if coming off the bench is a better option for this team. The starting five tend to be somewhat defensively challenged and Calderon's defence would exacerbate that problem. The second unit has more of an ability to compensate for Calderon's defensive deficiencies while benefiting in a big way from his offensive skills. I especially think of the way Amir Johnson seems to have benefited from having Calderon on the floor. Johnson may not have been especially blessed with offensive skills but he and Calderon seem to have really developed some chemistry on the court.

First off, again, these are the types of things I'm getting to read every day, and it's great stuff (see, I'm calling stuff great even when it doesn't necessarily reiterate what I've been saying).

Secondly, I think the points he brings up about Jack co-existing with Turkoglu better than Calderon, and Calderon meshing well with Johnson are both valid. I think we will be able to get a better sense of this type of stuff when 82games.com releases their "player pairs." The "pairs" are pretty much just what they sound like -- a plus/minus for each pair of teammates when they're on the floor together. I'm not sure when 82games will release this stuff, but hopefully it will come soon (more content!).

Finally, I could be wrong and even if I'm right, he might not want me to write this, but didn't that letter sound like Stephen Brunt? The elegant yet simple style... the sound logic... I'm convinced! He must confirm or deny this hypothesis. Stephen, become the second celebrity-friend of T.Jose Caldeford! (Michael Grange is the first)

Ball v.1.5

2010-02-03T05:33:00.000-08:00

Oh, crushing, crushing symbolism.

Jose Calderon rolls his ankle after stepping on the foot of.... Jarrett Jack.

Clearly, Jay Triano is not reading T.Jose Caldeford on a regular basis.

To those of you who don't follow this blog religiously (I can only assume that's about 1% of the world population), let me explain:

Years ago, in a world far far away, I presumed that since Jose Calderon and T.J. Ford were 2 of the Toronto Raptors' five best players, success would follow if they played together.

Sound (but tragically flawed) logic. Whenever they were on the court together, it was (close to) an (unmitigated) disaster. The numbers were bad. And I quickly abandoned the idea that it could work.

Flash forward to this season, and again, Jay Triano was seduced by the same seemingly simple logic: If Player X and Player Y are two of your best five players, then we should be able to play them together.

Clearly, I did not jump aboard this runaway train, and from the get-go, tried to say as often as possible that the two point guards should never play together.

The numbers (as dependable as always) backed me up.

The two most used lineups with Jack & Calderon as the backcourt featured frontcourts of Turkoglu-Bosh-Bargnani, and Wright-Bosh-Bargnani. Those are pretty good lineups (featuring Toronto's top 4 players this season---arguably). But, consider:

Those two lineups have been on the floor for 128 minutes this season (the equivalent of 2.7 full games)
They've been outscored by 30 points
They've been outscored 18 of the 25 different times they've been on the court together

As you can see, I think the numbers show that Jack and Calderon should almost never be on the court together. And if Mr. Triano read this blog, perhaps Jose Calderon wouldn't be icing his ankle as we speak!

THE POINT GUARD "DEBATE" CONTINUES, I GUESS...

Calderon had a better plus/minus than Jack again last night. Calderon is now a +84 since returning from injury, while Jack is a -47.

If you want to look at numbers from the entire season, Calderon averages more points per 36 minutes, more assists, fewer turnovers, and shoots a better percentage from the field and from three-point range.

Again, as I said in the heading, I "guess" we can say there's still a debate, but I don't think there is.

BIZARRO WORLD

Here's my biggest issue with the whole Jarrett Jack as the starting point guard thing: Toronto's current starting lineup has been outscored by 52 points this season. That's the worst mark among Toronto's 10 most used lineups. Shouldn't your starting lineup be one of your more effective lineups? If you can't say yes to that question, let me revise: Should your least effective lineup be your most-used lineup? Seriously, (warning: Zoolander reference) I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

So anyways, here's what I've done, I've looked at the 19 teams in the NBA with a record at or above .500. I've picked out their worst lineup performance-wise out of their 10 most used lineups, and sorted them by how often that lineup plays (in terms of minutes). Check it out:

HOU: 656 *

CLE: 365 *

CHI: 307

TOR: 275 *

CHA: 220

POR: 102

MIA: 91

LAL: 80

DEN: 75

DAL: 62

ATL: 60

BOS: 57

OKC: 57

NO: 54

PHX: 50

ORL: 43

MEM: 37

SA: 36

UTA: 35

*denotes current starting lineup

So Toronto is one of 3 teams with a winning record whose current starting lineup is their worst performing lineup.

Quick analysis:

Shocking to see the numbers-driven Rockets atop the list. It's still confusing to me that Carl Landry comes off the bench, however Houston must know something we don't, right?

I'm giving the Cavs a free pass here because they know they have to start Shaq even though the team would be best served with him on the bench. Seriously, that is depressing. Shaq, please retire, immediately.

I have to tell you, I'm not the least bit surprised to see Jerry Sloan and Gregg Popovich coached teams at the bottom of the list. Don't they just seem like the two most practical, black-and-white coaches in the NBA? Wouldn't they just forget all the B.S. about personalities or matchups or dealing with the media, and just say to themselves, "Hey, if this lineup isn't working, I'm not going to use it." It takes a certain amount of confidence and courage to do that, two things I'm not sure every NBA front office is oozing with.

Ball v.1.4

2010-02-02T11:03:00.000-08:00

Quick question from Anonymous: What about Raptor Defensive rating AFTER the Atlanta meeting? Good enough to advance to the ECF?

Answer: Toronto's defensive rating since the Atlanta blowout is 107.3... which would sit 10th in the Eastern Conference if maintained over the full season. In other words, Toronto's defence is bad, even if you don't count their worst effort of the season.

Ball v.1.3

2010-02-02T09:42:00.000-08:00

Love the Caldeford readers. Why? 'Cause they bring it!

Alex wrote: "Not titled Ball v1.2? A little disappointed."

Bones wrote: "What happened to naming every entry "Ball" version so and so?"

In just a few hours since posting, these guys are calling me on my mistakes. It's like having dozens of girlfriends pointing out all the empty promises I make!

Add in some great statistical breakdowns in the comment sections... and you guys are really bringing it! I've corrected the previous title

Ball v.1.2

2010-02-02T05:37:00.001-08:00

All I'm saying is:

Without DeRozan, the Raptors are:

3-0
averaging 111 points per game
shooting 56% from the floor
dishing out 25 assists per game

They're averaging seven more points per game, shooting 9% better, and averaging four more assists per game.

I said I thought with DeRozan out, it would allow the Raptors to have better ball-movement, better spacing, and they'd just be a more difficult team to defend (because the team would actually have to account for that fifth person on the floor). Here's the best way of showing how much it's helped the Raptors:

25 / 16 / 4 ... 49% FG ... Eastern Conference Player of the Week

That was Chris Bosh's week without DeMar DeRozan.

LOOKING BACK

I've done some good work at T. Jose Caldeford over the years. I was in the "Calderon is better than Ford" camp before it was cool to be in that camp. I warned everyone that Jermaine O'Neal would be a stiff. I've cut slices so thin, you can't even see them (sorry, Seinfeld reference).

ANYWAYS, one thing I remembered writing and thought it would be worth updating were some notes I pulled about looking back at former Eastern Conference champions to see if there were any underlying trends (and there were). Here's what I wrote at the time:

- Only 7 of the past 20 (35%) East champs were either the best, or second-best offensive team in the conference

- 15 of the champs (75%) were either the best, or second-best defensive team in the conference

- 8 champs (40%) were not among the top 5 offensive teams in the conference, yet still reached the NBA finals.

- Only 2 champs (10%) were not among the top 5 defensive teams in the conference.

Just based on what I wrote, you can tell why I brought it up as it relates to the Raptors. Essentially those numbers seemed to back up the old cliche, "Defence wins championships."

Bonus points for me at the time because I said that information suggested the only two teams with a realistic shot at winning the East were the Celts & Pistons (they both made the ECF).

So, I thought I would update the past two seasons to see what happened in the East:

2007-08: BOS (4th in Off, 1st in Def) def. DET (1st in Off, 2nd in Def) in Eastern Conference final

2008-09: ORL (4th in Off, 1st in Def) def. CLE (1st in Off, 3rd in Def) in Eastern Conference final

In 07-08, either the team would have added to the argument that I had built. Last season, Cleveland would have bucked the trend (not in the top 2 in def. efficiency), but Orlando came through for my theory! Let's update those notes:

- Only 7 of the past 22 (32%) East champs were either the best, or second-best offensive team in the conference

- 17 of the champs (77%) were either the best, or second-best defensive team in the conference

- 8 champs (36%) were not among the top 5 offensive teams in the conference, yet still reached the NBA finals.

- Only 2 champs (9%) were not among the top 5 defensive teams in the conference.

Interesting to note that both the '08 Celts and '09 Magic nearly added to that third note as well (as they were both ranked 4th in the conference offensively).

So what do these numbers tell us about this season (other than the Raptors have no shot to go deep in the playoffs), well, here are the top 4 defensive teams in the East (points allowed per 100 possessions):

1. Bos (101.6)

2. Cha (102.3)

3. Cle (102.7)

4. Orl (103.0)

Ya, for those of you who didn't know... Larry Brown has got those Bobcats playing some serious "D." Granted, the numbers for the teams are so close that Charlotte could fall out of the top 2 quite easily, but I'm not so sure that will happen. The Bobcats just closed out a 12-4 month of January that included road wins against Cleveland, Miami, Phoenix and Sacramento. Listen, I'm not predicting anything with this team, I'm just saying I'm not quite sure they're going away.

One other interesting note: For all those fantasy geeks who love the Hawks and think they're the most unstoppable team ever: Atlanta ranks 7th in defensive efficiency. They would have to buck that serious final trend (Only 2 of the past 22 champs have not been among the top 5 defensive teams of the conference). Just a thought when you're thinking about how much you love those high-flying Hawks.

Ball v.1.1

2010-01-29T09:12:00.000-08:00

I've decided instead of coming up with cheeky/snarky/semi-intelligent headlines, every post for the rest of my existence will simply be "Ball." Doesn't get any more succinct than that.

STATS LIE

The Raptors are 4-0 this season when Chris Bosh turns the ball over six times or more.

NOT BUYING WHAT THE TURK IS SELLING

Definitely not buying Hedo Turkoglu's go-to explanation for when he plays well. The Turk seems to think that it's dependent on the team giving him the ball in order for him to produce. I emphatically disagree. They give him the ball all the time, it's just a matter of whether he's had the energy to do anything with it. Last night, he did. Consider:

HEDO TURKOGLU

FIELD GOALS AT THE RIM THIS SEASON

Jan. 28 vs NYK 5

Nov. 29 vs PHX 3

Dec. 13 vs HOU 3

11 times 2

He had five layups / dunks last night, a season-high. Two things: First, it's pretty embarrassing that he's only had three games this season with three field goals at the rim or more (compared to 17 games with 0 field goals at the rim). Secondly, notice a trend with the teams he's done it against? Knicks, Suns, and Rockets --- They all allow over 100 points per game, and they all lack size (& shot blockers) up front. All I'm saying is: I'll be impressed if Turkoglu puts his body on the line and gets to the rim against Boston or Orlando. It doesn't impress me against the Knicks.

THE POINT GUARD DEBATE

We really are going back in time to the good ol' days of Caldeford. Two point guards, almost equally splitting time, each wanting to finish games. Quite honestly, I don't think it's even been close in terms of who has played better. However, one of them keeps making up for overall poor play by hitting a big shot or two in the fourth quarter (and that seems to be all fans remember). But let's look at the numbers:

POINT GUARDS

SINCE CALDERON'S RETURN

Jack: 4 assists per game, 2.1 ast/to ratio, -32

Calderon: 5 assists per game, 4.5 ast / to ratio, +88

Calderon has been a plus in 10 of the 12 games. Jack has been a plus in 2 of the 12 games. However, a big layup against the Knicks, some tough finishes against the Lakers, and people are still convinced Jack is a better point guard for this team.

Whatever, it's still 48 minutes of above-average point guard play, something that I said was the key missing ingredient to last year's team. Consider:

TORONTO POINT GUARDS - A NEW ERA

09-10 Caldejack 22 pts, 11 ast, 5 reb, 4 to, 49% FG, 40% 3PT, 81% FT

07-08 Caldeford 23 pts, 14 ast, 5 reb, 4 to, 49% FG, 41% 3PT, 89% FT

06-07 Caldeford 22 pts, 13 ast, 5 reb, 5 to, 46% FG, 32% 3PT, 82% FT

As you can see, the numbers are nearly identical (the only reason the assist numbers are down is because of the presence of Turkoglu). Otherwise, you're still getting 48 minutes of efficient, offensive basketball from your point guards. And as a bonus, "Jack" meshes just as well with "Calde" as "Ford" did.

Ball

2010-01-29T08:47:00.000-08:00

"Ball....."

"I got nothing else to say...."

"Yes Sir....."

The best.... post-game interview.... ever.

The Bargnani Factor: Appendices

2010-01-29T08:41:00.000-08:00

"Over the past month we have watched Bargnani evolve into a more complete player. While his ability to make shots from 24 feet remains, it is his willingness to put the ball on the floor and drive to the basket with a proficiency rarely seen in big men, which has dramatically changed his effectiveness." – Bob McCown, "The Bargnani Factor", January 28, 2010

This is an excerpt from Bob McCown's blog over at Fadoo.ca. The topic (Andrea Bargnani's development) is certainly timely and appropriate, given how Il Mago has played this season (last night notwithstanding). However, there are a few additional points to the above paragraph that I think help tell the full story about Bargnani's change in play:

First, Bargnani's most valuable attribute is clearly his offensive play. However, he is also averaging career highs in offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds, total rebounds (obviously), and blocks. So, he's stepping up his play in all areas.

Secondly, Bargnani's evolution into Toronto's key secondary scorer actually began last season, not just over the past month, or even just over this season. Take a look at his pre/post all-star game splits:

Next, Bob is definitely accurate when he mentions Bargnani's newfound willingness to drive to the basket. Much like his overall numbers, it was a trend that began last season and has peaked this campaign. Take a look at Bargnani's shots from 10 feet and in (data provided by hoopdata.com

Finally, the biggest change in Bargnani's play this season that I've noticed using naked-eye observation is his mid-range game. His ability to fake a three-point shot, put the ball on the floor, and pick up his dribble to hit a 15-footer before reaching the awaiting defence is something I've never seen before (from him at least). Do the numbers back me up? Luckily, hoopdata allows us to look at shots from 10-15 feet away:

It's a dramatic change in style just over the course of a few seasons. He's taking twice as many mid-range jumpers than just two seasons ago! There are two notes that expand on this data. First, let's just collectively sum up his first three seasons and compare it to this season:

He's taking 56% more mid-range shots this season than his previous three seasons, and he's making them much more often. And secondly, Bargnani's 54% accuracy from this range is actually tops among NBA centres who take at least one attempt per game.

So, in summation, Bargnani began to improve last season, and this evolution has turned him into one of the most well-rounded offensive frontcourt players in the NBA.

Many NBA pundits have written that Chris Bosh could actually be a better player if he's a complementary scorer playing alongside a more offensive-minded star. They say that this could be a key determining factor when/if Bosh chooses a new team in July. But perhaps he's had a offensive-minded star alongside him in Toronto all along, it's just taken a few years for that scorer to reveal himself.

Blessing in Disguise

2010-01-27T06:14:00.000-08:00

A quick disclaimer: This post has nothing to do with the long-term ramifications of this franchise. I understand it is important to develop players with an eye towards future seasons (however, I have a bit of problem with that as it relates to the Toronto Raptors --- more on that in a later post, but I digress). So if you find yourself disagreeing with anything below, make sure you're reading it in the context of someone who wishes only to maximize this season's output for the Raptors.

So, with that being said, here is the premise for today's content: DeMar DeRozan's injury could be the best thing that happens to this team this season.

This entire strategy of giving him minutes with the starting five in order to "develop" him has never made sense to me. I was told yesterday that it shouldn't matter if he's being given these minutes because they're not "big minutes" (as if it matters whether the team gives up a 10-0 run in the first quarter as opposed to the fourth).

To put it as simply as I can, DeRozan (right now) is not good enough to be in a playoff team's rotation. I can see that from my own eyes, and the numbers back me up in black and white terms. To me, this is a really simple conclusion to reach, but I find whenever I talk about it, people can't seem to understand that DeRozan isn't very good (I suspect it's the fastbreak dunks that cloud their judgment). Furthermore, the numbers have shown that the Raptors are much better with Marco Belinelli on the floor. Again, this seems obvious to my own eyes, and the numbers back me up. But again, whenever I discuss this with Raptor fans, people can't seem to understand that the team is better with Belinelli (I suspect it's the off-balance jumpers).

Anyways, I will try to make the case as clearly as I can that this is a good thing for the Raptors:

He's not a good defender --- To those who suggest DeRozan is more of a defensive playmaker than Belinelli: Belinelli averages 2.2 defensive plays (blocks / steals / charges) per 40 minutes. DeRozan averages 2.1. Predicted rebuttal: Defensive plays aren't the be-all and end-all when it comes to defence. True, so try this: Belinelli's checks have produced a PER of just 13.1 this season, DeRozan's: 17.3.

He doesn't know how to pass --- Among the Raptors, only Andrea Bargnani and Amir Johnson average fewer assists per 40 minutes than DeRozan. Among guards playing at least 20 minutes per game, DeRozan averages the fewest assists in the entire NBA. Predicted rebuttal: It's not his job to create. There are other ballhandlers on the floor when he's out there, etc... Well, it's not Belinelli's job to create or have the ball in his hands either, he's a shooter. Same with Antoine Wright, or Sonny Weems, or even Rasho Nesterovic... none of them are primary (or even secondary ballhandlers). But if you understand the game, and how to play within an offence, or even just how to run, start, & finish a fastbreak, then a lot of assists just kind of come naturally even to players who don't have the ball in their hands very often. DeRozan lacks all of the qualities I just mentioned.

He doesn't how to finish --- Whether it's because of his shorter-than-expected height (I project it somewhere around 6'4 or 6'5), his shorter than expected wingspan (which makes his seem even shorter than his shorter-than-expected height), his lack of strength, his lack of understanding when to shoot, when to drive, when to pass, etc.... whatever... he is struggling to finish around the rim. No player on the Raptors gets blocked more often than DeRozan (8.5%). That number ranks in the bottom 10 among NBA guards as well. A trend: If you look at the players surrounding DeRozan in that high-block percentage, you'll notice a plethora of young players (Harden, Westbrook, W. Bynum, Stuckey, Affalo, C. Lee, Ge. Hill, etc...). That's because these guys are still learning how to pick their spots, and are learning how big/strong/tall/athletic NBA players really are. Predicted rebuttal: But DeRozan gets blocked a lot because he's taking it to the rim so often and finishing as well. You have to give him credit for that. Counter-point: Belinelli averages more "and-1s" per 40 minutes than DeRozan, but gets blocked half as often.

He can't stretch the floor --- NBA defences are tough to play against. They're tough to play against mainly because they (namely, the good ones) will find a way (more often than the bad ones) to have your 4th or 5th option end up shooting the ball. In years past, for Raptors fans, this meant a Shawn Marion or Jamario Moon corner three. This season, teams are hoping that Raptor possessions end up with the ball in DeRozan's hands with 6-10 seconds left on the clock. Why? For all of the reasons I've already listed: A lack of understanding, a lack of playmaking, and because he can't hurt them with the three ball. DeRozan is shooting 28% from three-point land. I'm not using this against him.. he only takes one every three games or so. It's just that this reality--the fact that the player sitting in the weakside corner can't hit a three ball--really allows teams to drift off of DeRozan and help on Bosh or Bargnani down low. Predicted rebuttal: Why does it matter if he moves in and shoots a 20-footer for two instead of the three? He's got a better field goal percentage than Belinelli this season. First of all, let's eliminate the misconception that he's shooting a better percentage than Belinelli. True, his field goal percentage is higher (46% compared to 40%). However, as most statheads know, FG% doesn't account for the added value of a three. When you compare the two players in effective field goal percentage (EFG%), you see that Belinelli has actually been a better shooter (49% to 47%). And as for that long, wide-open two that DeRozan loves to take: He's shooting 37% on 16-23 footers this season (that's an expected value of 0.7 points per shot). Belinelli's 39% accuracy on three-pointers actually gives him an expected value of 1.2 points per shot (and believe me, if he got as many wide open looks from the corner as defences give DeRozan, those numbers would be significantly higher). Here's something interesting: DeRozan actually has a higher expected value on his threes (0.8 points per shot) than his long twos this season. So when you cite DeRozan's willingness to pass up threes for the long two, it's actually not a good idea.

ADD IT ALL UP, WHAT DO YOU GET?

When I try to Coles notes all this stuff and produce an argument for people that Belinelli is much better for this team than DeRozan, here is the usual, final rebuttal: Ya, but we don't need another scorer in the starting five, it's good that DeRozan doesn't try to do too much when he's out there. This, to me, might be the weakest argument I've ever heard. According to this logic, DeRozan would be the perfect shooting guard for this team if he simply stayed in the corner, and didn't touch the ball (actually, he already does that).

This is when sites like 82games and basketballvalue really come in handy. Because they don't mess around with individual stats... they simply tell you: This five-man unit has been good, that five-man unit hasn't. The team does well when this player is on the floor. The team doesn't do well when that player is on the floor.

MY FINAL ARGUMENTS

The Raptors get outscored by 5.2 points per 48 minutes when DeRozan is on the floor. That's the worst mark among the team's rotation players (even Antoine Wright is only -3.2). The usual rebuttal to a mark like that is: Well, a stat like that doesn't account for the supporting cast on the floor with the player. However, in this case, we know that the heavy majority of DeRozan's floor time comes with Toronto's best players. Conversely, the Raptors outscore the opposition by 4.8 points per 48 minutes when Belinelli is on the floor (tied for the best mark on the team with Bargnani).

And finally, basketballvalue tracks all of the five-man units used by a team in a given season. As of today, the Raptors had used 22 different lineups for at least 20 minutes. I've sorted them by overall rating (pts per 100 possessions subtracted by pts allowed per 100 possessions), and listed the shooting guard in each lineup:

+37 (Belinelli)
+30 (Belinelli)
+29 (Belinelli)
+29 (Belinelli)
+14 (Wright)
+13 (Wright)
+11 (DeRozan)
+9 (Weems)
+7 (Belinelli)
+7 (Belinelli)
+7 (Belinelli)
+6 (DeRozan)
+2 (DeRozan) --- starting lineup with Calderon
+2 (Belinelli)
+2 (Belinelli)
0 (DeRozan)
-4 (Wright)
-6 (Belinelli)
-9 (DeRozan) --- the current starting lineup
-16 (Jack) --- the dreaded Calderon / Jack backcourt
-25 (Belinelli)
-49 (DeRozan) --- DeRozan / Wright as the swingmen... let us never see this again

So, Belinelli appears as the shooting guard in seven of top 11, Wright in two, and DeRozan & Weems in one each.

Listen, I'm sure none of this is news to Jay Triano, or Bryan Colangelo, or any of the members of press row (well, maybe I shouldn't go that far). But, I've struggled all season with the fact that DeRozan (21 mpg--- that's minutes per game, not miles per gallon) gets more burn than Belinelli (19 mpg). It's never made sense to me, and hopefully, Belinelli can take advantage of an opportunity (if it presents itself) to earn more minutes. Then maybe the team will abandon their wish of developing a 10-point deficit at the start of every half (sorry, I mean their wish of developing DeRozan at the start of every half).

Best message I've read in a long time...

2010-01-25T16:30:00.000-08:00

Message boards are a weird place to roam. They're kind of like Fox News... you tune in fully expecting to be disappointed by what you hear, but you go anyway.

ANYWAYS... I was reading Mr. Grange's post about yesterday's game, and came across the following message, which I will post in its entirety, because it's that good:

WTomlin76 wrote:
Personally I don't buy the argument that Turkoglu has had a bad season. In Orlando he wasn't a dominant scorer, he was a ball-handler and distributor who would take the big shots when needed. Orlando trusted Hedo to facilitate their offense, and as Charles Barkley said about the Magic this season "they miss Turkoglu."

To me, this is about the stat culture that ruins Toronto basketball discussions. Reporters, who often don't even watch the games, just let the stat line do their thinking for them. The reality is that whenever the ball was in Hedo's hands against the Lakers last night, good stuff happened. Whether it was knowing when to shoot or when to pass, Hedo usually made the right decision. And a lot of his passes were to wide open hot shooters like Jack and Andrea B.

Has anyone considered that with Hedo contributing the Raptors have one of the best offenses in the NBA? Does anyone notice how guys playing alongside him like Andrea B. are having career years? Hedo's passing and ball handling are a great addition.

Just Toronto sports media only know how to read stat lines, well here's a stat, this teams' great record comes with Hedo playing heavy minutes consistently, the fact that his stat sheet doesn't glow with 20-point performances doesn't mean he's having a bad year. The Raptors recent win-loss record and exceptional offense prove to me he is making a solid contribution.

His message echoes a lot of things I said when I first started writing this blog. Yes, it's a statistics-based blog, but I always was dismayed by the way Toronto writers used the "front page stats" (pts, reb, ast) to formulate their storylines. And I know I have been "ripping" Turkoglu a bit of late, however, you'll notice that my observations have been how his performance has changed compared to prior years. And the performances I have been tracking are his "hustle" stats, not his front page stats.

To further the earlier point about Hedo, I'll pass along a great message via Twitter from "Steeebo":

"Hedo averaging 12.5 / 4.5 / 4.5 this yr & his career avgs are 12.3 / 4.2 / 2.8 so basically Hedo IS WHAT WE THOUGHT HE IS."

See, that's a way of using those front page stats effectively (i.e. In a way that the mainstream media is not).

Here's one more way of using the mainstream stats to tell a different story about Turkoglu: Those seasonal averages of 12.5 / 4.5 / 4.5... here's the list of players in the NBA averaging at least those amounts in all three categories:

Lebron James

Kobe Bryant

Dwyane Wade

Brandon Roy

Joe Johnson

Tyreke Evans

Chris Paul

Andre Iguodala

Russell Westbrook

Hedo Turkoglu

That's not a bad list, and all of this talk reminds of a favourite line, courtesy of Homer Simpson: "People can come up with statistics to prove anything. 40% of all people know that."

Definitely not a Lazy Sunday

2010-01-25T06:39:00.000-08:00

Let's just update a few trends we've been following here at Caldeford before I get to Sunday's win over the Lakers:

TORONTO RAPTORS
BEST HOME WINNING PERCENTAGE

2006-07 .732 (30-11) *
2009-10 .714 (15-6)
2000-01 .659 (27-14) *
1999-00 .634 (26-15) *
2007-08 .610 (25-16) *
2001-02 .585 (24-17) *
*made playoffs

The Raptors continue to impress on their homecourt, and this does bode well for the team's immediate future: 9 of the next 12 at home, no "road trip" at all during that time (where "road trip" = more than 1 game in a row away from home).

However, it doesn't bode well for their playoff chances. They are just 8-16 on the road this season, including an abysmal 2-13 record vs. teams at or above .500. If you can't win on the road against playoff teams, you're simply not going anywhere in the playoffs.

SUNDAY IS FUNDAY

The Raptors have now played 6 Sunday home dates against Western Conference opponents this season. They're 5-1 against Phoenix, Houston, New Orleans, San Antonio, Dallas, and the Lakers.... 6 teams that, collectively, are 59 games above .500 this season.

CAN YOU FEEL IT?

I don't like to get caught up in writing about non-quantifiable stuff here at Caldeford, however, I want to briefly mention the unique electricity that was present at the ACC during the game last night.

There's only a few players that have come in to the arena (in my experience) that just have that aura about them: MJ, Kobe, Shaq, LeBron, and Vince. Mr. Carter probably doesn't belong on that list based on his accomplishments, but because of his---ahem---history here, he generates (or at least did) that buzz in the building.

Anyways, best crowd and best game of the season...

INSTANT NOSTALGIA

So where does it rank in terms of best regular season home dates ever? Here's a brief list I put together... counting down from five:

5. Sunday, January 8th, 2006 --- NJ 105, TOR 104 --- The only loss on the list. Playing in just his second game back in Toronto, Vince Carter hits a game winning three pointer that he calls "his greatest shot ever." Carter scored 42 points, including 24 in the fourth quarter... and he also got good friend Morris Peterson ejected from the game in the first half after Steve "Look at me" Javie made one of the worst calls I've ever seen in person. Bonus points because I somehow managed to sit courtside for this game, and made Vince laugh with one of my chirps.

4. Sunday December 8th, 1996 --- TOR 97, CHI 89 --- The defending champs rolled into the weekend with a 17-1 record. However, after a home loss to the Miami Heat the night before, mostly everyone expected the Bulls to take out their frustrations on the 6-12 Raptors. It didn't happen. Michael Jordan suffered through a 5-for-17 shooting performance, Damon Stoudamire had 31 points and the Raptors pulled off another shocking upset of the Bulls (more on the first one later). Interestingly enough (or maybe not), the Bulls followed up the two-game losing streak with another 17-1 streak. One more fun fact: Sharone Wright and Popeye Jones both had double-doubles for the Raptors.

3. Sunday, February 27th, 2000 --- TOR 103, PHX 102 --- Welcome to the Carter Show, America. Remember Raptor fans, it wasn't all bad memories with this guy. Making their first ever appearance on US national television, the Raptors take out the 34-20 Suns on the heels of Vince's 51-point effort.

2. Sunday, January 24th, 2010 --- TOR 106, LAL 105 --- The Raptors welcome the best in the West to town. Kobe, Gasol, Bynum and co. bring a 33-10 record into the ACC. A well-played game (37 assists overall compared to 22 turnovers... 30-35 combined from the line) featuring (arguably) the two best front courts in the NBA. Oh, and also the 2nd best player in the NBA. Numerous dunks, highlights, and opposing runs from each team. Punctuated by a near make by one of league's all-time greats.... a shot that nearly everyone in the arena expected him to make (despite its degree of difficulty).

1. Sunday, March 24th, 1996 --- TOR 109, CHI 108 --- This wasn't the first time the Raptors played the Bulls tough at home. Back in January, the Raptors actually led at the half against the 32-3 Bulls, and had a chance to tie the game as the clock winded down (I won't tell you who took the potential game-tying shot... I'll only say it's hilarious, and it can be found here). So, you'd think MJ and company wouldn't mess around a few months later, as they marched into town with a 60-7 (!!!) record to face the 17-49 Raptors. But Mighty Mouse (I think the Bulls had trouble against quick, small point guards) led the Raps with 30 points and 11 assists, and Jordan's potential game-winning shot was a fraction of a second too late (shades of Kobe... or I guess, Kobe was shades of MJ... you get the idea).

Honourable mention: Sunday, March 19th, 2000 --- TOR 100, HOU 98 --- Vince Carter with a game-winning baseline drive & jam over Hakeem Olajuwon.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

Hey, did you realize all those games, including the honourable mention, came on Sunday. I'm telling you... magical stuff happens at the ACC on Sundays ("magical" = not very quantifiable).

QUICK STATS OF THE DAY

The Raptors improved to just 6-21 all-time vs the Lakers

The Raptors had a 26-9 free throw advantage despite being outrebounded 51-39

Since Kobe has been in the NBA (992 games), only 3 times have the Lakers attempted fewer than 9 free throws in a game

The Raptors were 2-7 against the Top 5 defences in the NBA before last night's game

The Raptors are now 10-4 this season when Andrea Bargnani grabs 8 boards or more

You've got questions... I've got answers...

2010-01-21T08:13:00.000-08:00

Matt wrote:

It seems like it's pretty common that when Bosh has a huge offensive game (like the one last night against the Bucks), the Raps lose. This might be an interesting blog topic. Bosh seems to slow down the offense when he has the ball. Even though he usually puts on show when the ball is in his hands, are the Raptors better off with a bosh-centric offense? Don't know how, but could be an interesting analysis.

I respond:

Good question Matt. A quick pull of Bosh's highest-scoring games reveals the following:

The Raptors are just 8-10 when Chris Bosh scores 35 points or more (including a 1-4 mark when he puts up more than 40).

What might be a more interesting way of looking at it is this: Bosh took 26 shots last night. The Raptors are 5-8 in Bosh's career when he takes 25 shots or more.

Is there a magic number from Bosh's perspective that will lead to wins? A stat that, if he hits, will ensure victory?

Let's set the time period from 2005-06 to this season (since Bosh has been the team's unquestioned alpha dog)... and let's roll out the numbers:

Is it when he's aggressive driving to the hoop? Nope... the team is 15-17 when Bosh has 15 free throw attempts or more
Is it when he's looking to find his teammates offensively? Nope... the team is 21-21 when Bosh has 5 assists or more
Is it when he's crashing the glass offensively? Nope... the team is 20-31 when Bosh has 5 offensive rebounds or more
Is it when he's cleaning up the glass on both ends? Not bad.... the team is 20-16 when Bosh has 15 rebounds or more
Is it when he's selectively picking his spots offensively? Pretty, pretty, pretty good... the team is 46-26 when Bosh shoots 60% from the field or better

We seem to be getting warmer, but I'm a bit skeptical of the 60% field goal percentage number because he could shoot 3-5 from the field when a bunch of other players go off and the team wins. It shows up almost as a false positive... yes the team won, but was it really due to Bosh's play?

No, there only was one or two numbers that I think provided us with a real answer, and it comes back to something I talked about earlier this year: Defensive Plays. I don't have the ability to search his game logs for charges drawn, but blocks and steals tell a compelling story:

The team is 8-5 when Bosh has 3 steals or more
The team is 23-12 when Bosh has 3 blocks or more

When he's got a real nose for the ball, and he's getting steals and blocks, it's even more obvious:

The team is 8-1 when Bosh's steals & blocks add up to 5 or more

So, there's the magic elixir... When Bosh is getting after it defensively... when, as I said, he's got a "nose for the ball," the team wins.

Simple as that.

AN INSIDE JOB

2010-01-19T13:48:00.000-08:00

If you're looking for evidence that:

Bosh is working harder than ever
DeRozan is listening to the coaches
Bargnani is starting to "get it"
Antoine Wright came into the season out of shape
Hedo Turkoglu came into the season out of shape

Just look here:

TORONTO RAPTORS
INSIDE SHOTS PER 40 MINUTES

Chris Bosh 10.5
Rasho Nesterovic 8.2
DeMar DeRozan 6.6
Amir Johnson 6.5
Andrea Bargnani 5.4
Sonny Weems 4.9
Jarrett Jack 4.1
Marcus Banks 4.0
Marco Belinelli 3.9
Jose Calderon 3.7
Antoine Wright 3.6
Hedo Turkoglu 3.3

(INSIDE SHOTS = FGA less than 10 ft from the rim)

Two stats of the day

2010-01-18T11:17:00.000-08:00

TORONTO RAPTORS
BEST RECORD THROUGH 41 GAMES

2001-02 24-17*
1999-00 22-19*
2000-01 22-19*
2007-08 22-19*
2009-10 21-20
*made playoffs

This is just the fifth time in franchise history the Raptors are above .500 through 42 games. The good omen: In each of the four previous instances, the Raptors made the playoffs.

TORONTO RAPTORS
BEST HOME WINNING PERCENTAGE

2006-07 .732 (30-11) *
2009-10 .684 (13-6)
2000-01 .659 (27-14) *
1999-00 .634 (26-15) *
2007-08 .610 (25-16) *
2001-02 .585 (24-17) *
*made playoffs

This season also seems like it will be the fifth time in franchise history the Raptors have finished with a home winning percentage above .600. Good omen: In every other one of those instances, the Raptors made the playoffs.

Lazy Sundays?

2010-01-17T21:23:00.000-08:00

Do the Raptors strategically schedule Western Conference opponents to early Sunday afternoon game times? Is there an actual advantage to doing that?

Consider:

The Raptors have played at home 19 times this season (sporting an impressive 13-6 record).

There has been roughly a 50/50 split between Sunday home dates and non-Sunday home dates (9/10 split).

Despite the nearly even split of Sunday and non-Sunday games, the Raptors have played just one Western Conference team on a non-Sunday home date. Conversely, the majority of their Sunday home games have come against teams from the West (Phoenix, Houston, New Orleans, San Antonio, and Dallas).

Before we get to some more numbers, first, let me explain the theory:

CREATURES OF HABIT

Basketball players, and all professional athletes really, are creatures of habit. From the time they're young teenagers, they're told not only when to stretch, study, practice, & play... they're also told when to sleep, eat, nap, wake up, etc... (none of this, I'm aware, is groundbreaking).

Most of these athletes are used to playing at night. They're used to the odd afternoon game, HOWEVER, what they aren't used to are morning games. And for teams from the West, a 12:30 start in Toronto is a morning game. Let me put it to you this way: How would you perform in your regular 11 a.m. budget meeting if all of a sudden it was scheduled for 3 a.m.?

THE RESULTS

So, as I said, five of Toronto's 9 Sunday home games have come against Western Conference teams, while just 1 of their 10 non-Sunday home games have come against the West.

Phoenix, Houston, New Orleans, San Antonio, and Dallas---all over .500, all potential playoff teams, all (arguably) better than Toronto.

Collectively, they're 35 games above .500 (Toronto is one). In those five Sundays against Toronto, they're 1-4 (and losers of four straight).

Collectively, they average 102 points per game (Toronto allows 104). In those five Sundays against Toronto, they average 93.

Collectively, they shoot 46.5% from the floor (Overall, Toronto allows its opponents to shoot 46.3%). In those five Sundays against Toronto, they shot 42.5%.

Overall, Toronto is -55 in total rebounding this season. In those five Sundays against Western Conference opponents, they're +4.

So it looks as if Toronto does gain an advantage by playing against Western Conference teams early on Sundays. If you're skeptical, let's replay all those five games at 7 pm on Wednesdays, what do you think the numbers would look like then?

STAT OF THE DAY

Jose Calderon was a game-high +32 against Dallas on Sunday. He's better than Jarrett Jack, in case anyone was wondering.

Talkin' Turk

2010-01-15T06:51:00.000-08:00

Wow, Raptor fans just lose their mind if there's no games to be played for a few days eh? Apparently, it's now time to trade Jose Calderon and Hedo Turkoglu. Really, Raptor fans? You're that enamoured with Jarrett Jack? Have all of you been fooled that much by the easiest part of Toronto's schedule? I can't spell this out anymore clearly:

It's easy to look like a good point guard against teams like Detroit, New Jersey, and New Orleans (when Chris Paul gets injured early in the game).

Let's just look at the past four games (keeping in mind that most of Calderon's minutes have come with the reserves):

CALDERON: 54% FG, 4.0 AST/TO, +6

JACK: 44% FG, 2.2 AST/TO, -18

Jose Calderon is a better player than Jarrett Jack. Let's just leave it at that.

Now, let's move on to the player Toronto fans have really been fretting over, Mr. Turkoglu. The big issue has been that Hedo has been complaining about not being a key part of the offence when Jack and Calderon are both in the lineup. Here's my response:

"You're lazy, Hedo. Don't blame your inactivity on other players or the coaching staff. Blame it on your diet. Blame it on your off-season. Blame it on your attitude. It's all on you."

Don't believe Hedo is lazy this year.... let's roll out the numbers:

CHARGES PER GAME
Previous 3 seasons: 0.15
This season: 0.03

STEALS PER GAME
Previous 3 seasons: 0.9
This season: 0.5

SHOTS AT THE RIM PER GAME
Previous 3 seasons: 3.6
This season: 2.0

FG% AT THE RIM
Previous 3 seasons: 57%
This season: 50%

Getting to the rim, finishing at the rim, taking charges, picking off passes... those are all skills that require a certain level of energy, athleticism, and effort. Turkoglu has regressed in all four of those areas this season.

Let's look at Turkoglu's year-over-year shot breakdown:

THIS SEASON

Rim - 15 feet: 4.2 FGA

16 feet & beyond: 7.9 FGA

LAST SEASON

Rim - 15 feet: 6.5 FGA

16 feet & beyond: 8.2 FGA

So, he's taking pretty much the same amount of long-range shots as he was last season. The only key difference is that he's taking much fewer close-range shots. Is that because he's becoming just a catch-and-shoot guy in this offence? Could be. I happen to believe there's so many opportunities for every player on the floor in this offence to drive, it's just an individual decision that's made. So whether he's just choosing not to drive, or he just doesn't have the ability to get inside anymore, he's doing it a lot less often this season.

HAVING SAID THAT...

The Raptors are still outscored by 5 points per 48 minutes when Turkoglu is on the bench. Regardless of his laziness, Toronto's other small forwards (Weems, Wright) are so bad (no offence), that the Raptors need Turkoglu, and they need to fix his attitude. They have no other choice.

Mail time re: Bosh

2010-01-14T13:00:00.000-08:00

Big Chris wrote: What about Pau? Currently the only elite level PF with a championship ring. Should the fact that he is asked to shoot less for the sake of winning a championship count against him.I think Dirk is the best PF right now too... but I don't even know if Bosh is > than Gasol...

My Response: I have probably the exact same thoughts as "Big Chris" when it comes to where Gasol ranks. I stuck with only mentioning Nowitzki because I thought he was clearly a better player than Bosh, whereas with Gasol, I think it's an argument that can go one way or another. On another note, I also happen to think Gasol is more of a true 5, and is only playing PF for the sake of Andrew Bynum.

Chris wrote: You are all forgetting that the players who can arguably be called better than Bosh are 30 and over. Bosh is just entering his prime years. Dirk, Gasol and Garnett all play on better teams (both coaching wise and talent wise) so it is difficult to compare them. It's easy to say Dirk/Gasol are the better players but remember Dirk has won as many championships as Bosh has (with a better team) and Gasol needed Kobe to get out of the first round.

My Response: First and foremost, I swear I'm not the one writing these comments (if I was going to respond to my own blog, I would make up names, not use my own). Part of the reason I said Dirk is a better player than Bosh is because Dirk has produced at this level for years (i.e. even when he was Bosh's age). I also think it's hard to hold Dirk's lack of titles against him for a variety of reasons (the refs stole it from him in 2006; he plays in such a ridiculously competitive conference, etc...). I think the supporting cast (when you're talking about Gasol) definitely is a valid point. Who knows what Bosh could do with a player like Kobe on his team, however, I still don't think he'd ever be as good of a playmaker as Gasol or Nowitzki even with a better supporting cast. I just don't think he has the basketball sense.

Khandor wrote: Chris, I'm in full agreement with your take on Doug Smith's claim that Chris Bosh is the best PF in the NBA. Although CB4 is a terrific basketball player ... at the Power Forward position, specifically, he is not a better player than, at least, the following list of individuals:

Kevin Garnett (when healthy)
Dirk Nowitzki
Pau Gasol
Carlos Boozer
Josh Smith
Chris Bosh[tie] / Luis Scola [tie] / David West [tie]

My Response: I've already talked about Nowitzki and Gasol. Garnett hasn't been healthy for two years, he doesn't belong on this list. Carlos Boozer isn't even the best power forward on his team. Defensively, Josh Smith is probably the best power forward in the game, but his offensive game is non-existent. Luis Scola can't jump 6 inches off the ground. David West would be a 12/8 guy if he didn't have Chris Paul as his point guard. Khandor, you obviously have an IQ for this game, however, posts like this don't provide you with much credibility.

A letter to Doug Smith...

2010-01-14T07:25:00.000-08:00

Who wrote in his blog the other day that Chris Bosh is the best power forward in the NBA:

"Doug, The "Chris Bosh = best PF in the NBA" argument sounds a bit too much like homerism to me. Statistically, Dirk Nowitzki averages more points, assists, blocks, and steals per game than Bosh, while also turning the ball over less frequently. Qualitatively, Nowitzki plays on a better team in a tougher conference, just has better basketball sense, and most importantly, Nowitzki has shown he can play at this level consistently, not just in a contract year. Listen, I'm as happy as the next Raptor fan to see Bosh playing at this new level (even if it's just because he wants to guarantee a max contract), but I think it's too much of a reach to call him the best power forward in the game. Let's just call him best in the East."

A trip down (recent) memory lane

2010-01-09T14:45:00.001-08:00

This definitely isn't my bit, but unfortunately I don't remember whose it is... but you know how people are all about snapping pictures and then immediately going through the digital images on their camera. "Ohhhh, look at how young we looked," they'd say as they looked at a picture taken 5 minutes before.

The term is "instant nostalgia."

Well, we're going to have a little instant nostalgia today as we catch up (figuratively) with the lost souls from the 2008-09 Raptors.

QUINCY DOUBY

Douby played in a few games at the end of the season for the Raptors, showing a bit of promise and actually came to this year's camp with a shot at making the team as an extra guard. That (obviously) didn't happen.

This is pretty funny. Douby is playing in the Turkish Basketball League for a team called "Darussafaka Cooper Tires." They started the year 0-12 before winning their first game in the new year (Douby had 15 points in the win). He is 2nd on the team in scoring and leads in assists.

The lesson: Don't try to win a Turkish Basketball League championship with Quincy Douby as your lead guard.

NATHAN JAWAI

Jawai was the 08-09 version of Reggie Evans. The big, burly body in street clothes on the bench. Jawai is actually a contributing member of the Minnesota Timberwolves (which is kind of like saying you're a contributing member of Enron).

He's appeared in 28 games, starting 2... and he even racked up 16 points and 6 rebounds in one of those games.

JAKE VOSKUHL

Jake was a late cut from the Mavs training camp. He hasn't caught on anywhere, but has continued to work out for teams, hoping to catch another gig where he plays once every two or three weeks and still manages to earn a $500,000 per season paycheque (see: Patrick O'Bryant).

HASSAN ADAMS

Adams was traded by the Raptors last season to the Clippers where he was immediately waived (that's a bit of kick in the pants I'd say).

He then played two games with "Vojvodina" in the Adriatic League (if I had any idea what that was, I'd provide you with more context, but alas) before leaving to head back home to America.

I literally cannot find one piece of information that says Adams is playing basketball anywhere this season.

WILL SOLOMON

Bryan Colangelo really upsold everyone on Will Solomon didn't he? We really thought Toronto's backup point guard problems were solved the way Colangelo raved about Solomon's play in Europe.

He ended up starting 9 games in Toronto when Calderon was injured, with the high point being a 15 point, 11 assist performance against the Heat.

He was also traded mid-season.

Solomon signed with Turkish club Fenerbahce, but was released for insubordinate behaviour (or so Google translate tells me). Which brings me to my next player...

ROKO UKIC

(quick timeline: they traded Roko to Milwaukee after they signed Jack... Milwaukee released Roko just a week or so ago)

I will never understand why they signed Will Solomon because I thought Roko Ukic had the ability to grow into the role as backup point guard (and maybe more). Consider:

Jan. 12, 2009 - Playing on the road in Boston without Calderon, the Raps force overtime before falling to the Celtics. Facing Rajon Rondo most of his time on the floor, Ukic hits 7-of-12 shots for 16 points (with just one turnover).

Feb. 11, 2009 - Without Calderon and Bosh, the Raptors defeat Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and the Spurs 91-89. Ukic goes off for 22 points in 29 minutes, and has just one turnover.

Mar. 27, 2009 - Backing up Calderon, Ukic racks up 10 assists (compared to just one turnover) in a win over the Thunder.

And then this season:

Dec. 9, 2009 - Ukic puts up 17 points (with just one turnover) in 25 minutes as the Bucks blow out the Raptors.

I will never understand why they didn't just give Ukic time to develop. If they had, the Raptors don't need to sign Jack to his overpriced contract. The point guard situation is settled, and maybe they spend the mid-level somewhere else where it was more needed (i.e. wing play).

Anyways, as I said, Solomon led into the Ukic update so well because after Fenerbahce released Solomon, they signed Ukic as his replacement. See, a Turkish team understands Ukic is better than Solomon, why didn't the Raptors realize this?

JOEY GRAHAM

Oh Joey, Joey, Joey. Untapped potential. Space cadet. Those are the terms that come to mind with this guy.

But he's bounced back nicely in a new setting this year. Graham has appeared in 26 games with the Nuggets this season backing up star forward Carmelo Anthony. He's even had a chance to start with 'Melo injured. He peaked last week with a 20 point, 8 rebound performance against the Warriors (but in fairness, I think everyone in the NBA has had a 20 point game against the Warriors this year).

On the things I never thought I'd hear list: "Graham earned praise from head coach George Karl for his hard work during Anthony's absence."

KRIS HUMPHRIES

Hump was traded to Dallas in that convoluted, four-team sign-and-trade over the summer. Always a fan favourite, Hump actually became somewhat of a per-minute, statistical wunderkind as well (look back at my previous posts or read some of Hollinger's work on him).

This season, his best performance on a stacked Dallas team was probably a double-double in just 22 minutes of court time against the Pacers.

He was traded to the Nets just last week.

To most people, that would either serve as an indictment of their play, or as just a very depressing piece of news, but for Hump, I don't think either applies.

Because of the presence of Marion (more on him later), Howard, Dirk, Dampier, and others in Dallas (and because of Dallas' fondness for small ball), Hump wasn't going to get the opportunity to play very often.

And the biggest reason why New Jersey traded for him is actually a very big compliment: They know he will play hard, even on a 3-34 team. Anyways, he will make his debut tonight, likely being the first big off the bench, backing up Yi Jianlian and Brook Lopez. Here's to hoping for some early foul trouble for Yi!

SHAWN MARION

Shawn Marion's season averages in points, rebounds, and minutes this season in Dallas are all at their lowest levels since his rookie season in Phoenix.

You would expect, given his history, that this would lead to some serious pouting from Marion.

However, Marion is being told he is the key to Dallas' defence. Mark Cuban is proclaiming that Marion should be first-team all-NBA defence this season.

He's averaging about one steal and one block per game, and has helped the Mavs jump from 17th to 7th in defensive efficiency. All that being said, the biggest surprise is still that he's not pouting.

JERMAINE O'NEAL

There's not much to be said for Jermaine. I think we all know he's starting at the five spot in Miami. I'll give you just a quick statistical rundown to see if he's doing anything differently in Miami than he was in Toronto:

You probably won't remember, but when O'Neal first came to Toronto, I expressed amazement at the fact that he had never shot better than 50% from the floor, considering his size and athleticism. Well apparently, having Dwyane Wade on your team gets you a bunch of easy buckets. O'Neal is shooting a career-high 54% from the floor this season.

His other numbers are all fairly similar, except his usage rate (an approximation of how much the ball is in his hands) is well down, implying that the Heat aren't really posting him up all that much.

JASON KAPONO

Our boy JK is having another tough year... a 3rd straight season of declining numbers since his career year in Miami. His three-point percentage is down to 40%, and he's playing just 14 minutes per game in Philly.

He's actually not even getting off the bench some nights (moreso lately). He can still light it up every once in awhile (20 pts on 8 of 11 shooting in 29 minutes against the Celtics back in late November), however, a player like Kapono needs a point guard like Jose Calderon. Instead in Philly, he has me-first PGs like Lou Williams and Allen Iverson (hence the struggles).

And he probably won't see any good court time for the foreseeable future. The Sixers GM is getting quoted in the press that he'd like to see the team's defence improve, and Raptor fans know you don't turn to Jason Kapono when you need good defence.

JAMARIO MOON

Jamario is currently out with an abdominal strain that isn't considered too serious. He's been coming off the bench in Cleveland, and doing fairly well. Statistically, it's amazing how little his game has changed going from Toronto to Miami to Cleveland.

You would think maybe he would shoot less on the better teams, or maybe take less threes. You would think SOMETHING would have to be different. But Jamario just keeps on keeping on, so to speak. Consider:

From the start of last season to now, here are some key per 36 minute stats for Jamario on each of the three teams:

4 FG in Tor

4 FG in Mia

4 FG in Cle

47% FG in Tor

46% FG in Mia

45% FG in Cle

7 Reb in Tor

6 Reb in Mia

7 Reb in Cle

10 Pts in Tor

10 Pts in Mia

10 Pts in Cle

I used to lose my mind that Moon didn't just put in the work to become a better shooter. But if playing with Wade and Lebron doesn't push you to improve offensively, then maybe nothing will.

That being said, Moon has drawn praise in Cleveland for his defence, and he's undertaken one of the toughest jobs in basketball: trying to keep Cavs fans from losing their mind when Lebron is off the floor. Moon is one of the few players on the team that doesn't really benefit from playing with Lebron because most of Moon's minutes come when Lebron is off the floor.

ANTHONY PARKER

And we'll end with my favourite former Raptor, the guy who would be helping this current edition of the team the most: Anthony Parker.

"He's been great."

"He's shooting the heck out of the ball."

"He's making (Lebron & Shaq)'s jobs easier."

Those are just some of the things being said about A.P. this season in Cleveland. The consummate pro, Parker has started all 40 games for the 30-10 Cavs. His counting numbers are all at their lowest levels since returning to the NBA in 2006-07, but that doesn't really matter. Here's the only number Cleveland coaches and fans and players probably care about: .475. It's Parker's three-point field goal percentage, and as long as he keeps banging home those threes from the corner, everyone will be happy. Incidentally, his three-point percentage currently ranks third in the NBA. He also ranks 2nd on the team in charges drawn.

One funny note: Parker was somehow labelled as a good defender while here in Toronto (a claim I always disagreed with), so it was funny to read some things about how Parker had to learn a lot of new defensive principles in Cleveland. "He's getting better," "He had to learn some things when he first got here," etc... were just some of the things I read about Parker's defence. Shows what we know here in Toronto eh?

*************

So what was all of this for (other than a big procrastinating session on my part)? I think the biggest thing I want people to take from this is: Wow, that's a lot of bodies. Meaning, there's a lot of new bodies with this season's Raptors, and that it will take time for this team to really come together.

Oh, and I also wanted to point out how bad last year's team really was.

Unrealistic Trades... the lifeblood of the internet

2010-01-08T10:22:00.000-08:00

Graham Smith said...

Dear Caldeford, I was reading Raps Republic this morning and they had an article proposing at trade: Calderon and Derozan to Philly for Iguodala and Holiday. I discussed this trade with my brother and we both agreed that we'd pull the trigger on this deal. What do you think of this potential trade? Please enlighten us with some additional statistical knowledge to justify the deal. Thanks. Keep up the good work. Great Blog!

Well first off, tell me my blog is great, and I'll answer your question any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Here is my additional statistical knowledge:

Yes, it would be a slam dunk win for the Raptors, but there's 0% chance of this deal ever happening. In order for a trade to happen, there has to be motivation for both sides, and I can't see why Philly would be motivated to trade its best player for a point guard (when they already have Lou Williams and Iverson on the roster).

On another note, Graham's note prompted me to head on over to this "Raps Republic" for a quick glance.... who are these people? If you listened to the people that left messages on this site, they'd have you believe a Raps poo-poo platter of Weems, Belinelli, and some other junk (along with a first rounder of course) could get you Caron Butler??? Are they insane??? These people must not read my stuff I assume since the messages I get are always of the utmost quality. I can only assume that its the intelligencia of Toronto that read Caldeford... all you investment bankers, and doctors and such...

2010-01-08T06:58:00.000-08:00

In Michael Grange's latest post, he wrote the following: "There is more meat on the bone here – anyone care to figure out the Raptors defensive rating for their past eight games? Or their past 16? – but it will have to do for now."

Since Mr. Grange complimented me in the same post, I thought I would do the dirty work for him, and sent him the following:

"Just for you, Mike: Raps defensive efficiency over the past 8 games (7-1 rec): 101.1

That would rank 7th in the NBA if it were held over the course of the entire season. Now before all Raptor fans start patting themselves on their proverbial backs, let's put this number in context:

Here is the list of teams they've played during this 7-1 stretch (with their offensive efficiency rank in parantheses):

NJ (30), NO (20), DET (24), DET (24), CHA (27), BOS (8)*, SA (5), ORL (7)

That's an average offensive efficiency rank of 18th in the NBA (and that's not even taking into account the * I put beside Boston for them not having three of their four best offensive players). In the first 28 games of the season, Toronto's opponents had an average offensive efficiency rank of 14th (and 16 of those 28 games came on the road, which is historically a tougher place to play defence than at home).

So yes, they've defended better, but a lot of that has to do with the quality of competition."

THE BEST IS YET TO COME?

So in my message to Mr. Grange, I preached "context" to Raps fans, but looking ahead, the context looks pretty damn good as well (I'm pretty sure that doesn't make sense). Consider the following points about Toronto's schedule heading into the all-star break (16 games):

The average offensive efficiency rank of Toronto's opponents is 19th.
They don't play more than 2 straight games on the road
They play only 5 games against teams with winning records
4 of those 5 games come at home
Toronto is 13-3 against teams with losing records this season
Toronto is 4-4 at home against winning teams this season

I guess what I'm saying is, perhaps when we were all ready to jump on a proverbial cliff after seeing the first month or two of the season, we should have given the tough schedule more credit for Toronto's lacklustre play. Because it seems like chances are Toronto will walk into the all-star break anywhere from two to six games above .500 with 30 games left in the season.

Three weeks ago, if I had suggested the Raptors would have a 28-24 record at the all-star break, I'm pretty sure I would have lost about 90% of my readership (note: 90% equals 4.5 readers).

More from Hoopdata

2010-01-06T08:09:00.000-08:00

Question from Sivart:

"Who are some of the top "playmakers" Toronto could look to trade for (at a reasonable cost)? One of the guys I thought the raptors should have targeted, was Matt Barnes, not sure where he ranks among the playmakers but it seems like when he is on the court he makes things happen, yet nobody ever seems to really want him."

Answer: First, about Matt Barnes... he averages 2.05 defensive plays per 40 minutes, which isn't very high. As for who Toronto could trade for: Well, there are only 2 players in the NBA who average over one steal, one block, and one charge per 40 minutes of action. The first is Jared Jeffries from the Knicks. I doubt however, the Raptors (or any other team) would be very interested in his exorbitant contract. The second is Anthony Randolph, the freakishly athletic forward from Golden State who stat heads have been salivating over ever since his amazing summer league performances. Could he be had? Probably not, but that is someone who would fit in as a backup off the bench rather well.

Comment from Toma:

"This is a prime example of why stats do not tell the story. If you look at the very database you referenced it shows that GSW is the best at defensive plays but allow the most points in the league while PORT has the same league worst defensive play (12.5) as TOR but are 4th best in opp scorong (sp). I love stats but whenever a stat is used to back up an arguement or premise, almost inevitably, further examination of the stats will show that it doesn't mean a damn thing and normally doesn't even back up what it was intended... If we are going to use a stat to back up a premise, it should not be so easy to show that defensive plays as a stat mean nothing."

First of all, it's a very valid point that Toma makes. However, I think there are two counter points to his argument.

Re: Portland - They had two significant playmakers at the back of their defence (Oden and Pryzbilla). They funnelled all of the opposing offence to these guys hoping for a blocked shot or at least a challenged or altered shot. I think that's why their numbers are low, because Portland's other players didn't have to make plays, and because Oden and Pryzbilla were making plays don't show up in this metric (altered shots).

Re: Golden State - It's one thing to have a few playmakers on defence, it's another to have everyone on the floor overplaying passing lanes and generally playing reckless defence in the hopes of picking off passes. The Warriors have to do this because they play so small all the time (Curry, Ellis in the backcourt... Maggette playing the occasional power forward, etc...).

So, I don't think Toronto would be better off if everyone on the team were a go-for-broke defender. However, I do think they would be better if perhaps their shooting guard was more of a defensive playmaker (see below):

CHARGES DRAWN PER 40 MINUTES (AMONG SHOOTING GUARDS)

MANU GINOBILI 0.77
RAJA BELL 0.76
QUENTIN RICHARDSON 0.65
DAHNTAY JONES 0.62

T-32. DEMAR DEROZAN 0.28

Why Jose Calderon is not (totally) to blame for Toronto's bad defence

2010-01-05T14:08:00.000-08:00

Playmakers... that's what sports are about.

Who are playmakers? They're guys who make plays that shouldn't necessarily be made... plays that defy the expected script of a game. It's an outfielder that makes a diving catch on a ball he had no business catching. It's a goalie that makes a great save on a rebound, or a defensive end that can come up with sacks at just the right time.

In basketball, an easy example would be a point guard who creates a bunch of easy buckets for his team, but there are many other examples, and they're mostly found on defence. Blocks and steals are the easiest examples of this, however, drawing charges is another key way to "make plays" on defence.

Which leads me to this: The Toronto Raptors have no playmakers on defence.

I long for the days of Doug Christie picking off passses, Morris Peterson taking charges, Antonio Davis blocking shots, and Jerome Williams doing a bit of all three. But those days are long gone.... (cue the stats)

A CHARGE AIN'T GONNA COME

The Raptors are taking 1.7 charges per game, a total that ranks 23rd in the NBA. The only reason they don't rank near the bottom of the league is because of their reserve players. Jarrett Jack (9 charges), Marco Belinelli (8), and Antoine Wright (7) are the biggest reasons why Toronto's reserves have taken 42 of the team's 59 charges this season.

SAD STAT OF THE DAY: Jack's team-leading 9 charges ranks 63rd in the NBA

SADDER STAT OF THE DAY: Toronto's starting five have taken 24 charges in a little under 5000 minutes of court time this season. Andrew Bogut has also taken 24 charges this season (in a little over 800 minutes)

SADDEST STAT OF THE DAY: Hedo Turkoglu has played 1090 minutes this season, and he's yet to take a charge. He's one of only two players in the NBA to log over 1000 minutes without taking a charge (Caron Butler)

PLAYMAKERS... NOT JUST A FAILED ESPN ORIGINAL SERIES

Which brings me back to my original point. The Raptors don't have a roster of playmakers on defence. Hoopdata.com tracks all this stuff, and they rank all NBA teams and players by a metric called defensive plays (blocks + steals + charges drawn).

LEAST SURPRISING STAT OF THE DAY: The Toronto Raptors rank dead last in defensive plays (12.5 per game) in the NBA this season

MOST SURPRISING (AND EQUALLY SAD) STAT OF THE DAY: Andrea Bargnani leads all Raptors with 64 defensive plays this season

Whether it's from a lack of defensive IQ (Bargnani), intensity (Bosh, Turkoglu), experience (DeRozan), or athleticism (Calderon), Toronto's starting five just doesn't have the ability to make plays on defence. And that's why they'll never be a good (or even average) defensive team.

THE ALL-NBA PLAYMAKER TEAM

PG Chris Paul (3.1) - How awesome is it that one of the league's best players also ranks 11th in the NBA in charges drawn per game
SG Dwyane Wade (3.0) - The only guard in the NBA to average more than one steal and one block per game
SF Gerald Wallace (3.3) - Add this to his freakish rebound totals, and can't you start making a case for him as defensive player of the year?
PF Josh Smith (4.3) - Literally, the definition of defensive playmaker
C Marcus Camby (3.7) - Beats out Dwight Howard by .05 plays per game

THE ALL-NBA ANTI-PLAYMAKER TEAM

PG Tony Parker (0.8) - Playmaker on offence, not so much on defence
SG Allen Iverson (0.3) - This was the Memphis edition of Iverson. In case you were wondering whether he wasn't trying, here is your statistical evidence
SF Peja Stojakovic (0.7) - "Stick a fork in me Jerry... I'm done"
PF Hakim Warrick (0.9) - Looking for a reason why Warrick isn't getting minutes for Scott Skiles in Milwaukee, look here
C Brad Miller (1.1) - See Stojakovic, Peja

One more note re: Calderon

2010-01-05T10:49:00.000-08:00

Quick points in defence of Calderon:

The list of teams Toronto has played during this 6-1 stretch (with their offensive efficiency rank in parantheses)

NJ (30th)
NO (20th)
DET (24th)
DET (24th)
CHA (27th)
BOS (8th)
SA (5th)

And the Boston team started Tony Allen, J.R. Giddens, and Rasheed Wallace. So, they've played one above average offensive team during the stretch. In other words, the schedule has more to do with Toronto's defensive improvement than the play of Jarrett Jack.

One other note: The Raptors remain 1-11 against the top 10 offensive teams in the NBA, and 16-7 against the rest of the league.

What's wrong with my boy???

2010-01-02T08:27:00.000-08:00

I'm on record as saying the Raptors should keep Jose Calderon as their starting point guard (5-game winning streak against the dregs of the NBA be damned). In simplest terms, Calderon gives the team the ability to be the best offensive team in the NBA, and Jarrett Jack does not. Regardless of defensive shortcomings (more on that later), you need to respect that ability.

HAVING SAID THAT, there is something obviously wrong with Calderon this year. What is it? Let's see what story the numbers tell us:

Let's get a couple obvious things out of the way: Yes, his assist totals have dipped, but that is to be expected with Hedo Turkoglu coming to town and handling the ball so much. His three-point percentage has also dipped a bit (but not as much as most people would have you believe). He's shooting 39.7% from downtown, tied for 30th in the NBA.

Next, the good stuff from this season for Jose: First, he's driving more (and taking fewer jumpers) than in the past couple seasons. I've always said the offence is at its most dangerous when Calderon is a threat to drive and the numbers agree with me on this:

Raptors Points per 100 Possessions

With Calderon on the floor

06-07 110

07-08 113

08-09 110

09-10 114

So the offence is actually humming better than it ever has under Calderon, which is saying something. So why hasn't this translated into wins? Well, you can obviously assume why, and here is when we get to the bad:

Raptors Opponents Points per 100 Possessions

With Calderon on the floor

06-07 108

07-08 110

08-09 112

09-10 121

That is a MASSIVE number beside 09-10 there. To put that into words/context, essentially every team in the NBA turns into the Showtime Lakers when they play the Raptors (with Calderon on the floor).

Take a look at the numbers being put up by the specific players Calderon is guarding (on a per 48-minute basis): 24 pts, 10 ast, 5 reb, 56 efg%, 23.6 PER

So, this makes sense: Every team turns into the Showtime Lakers because every opposing point guard gets turned into Magic Johnson (seriously, look at Magic's 86-87 season: 24/12/6/53 efg%)

I know what you're saying (Chris, you're not building a very good argument for starting Calderon), and I understand. I've already said in my previous post that this belief of mine goes against what the numbers tell me.

These numbers in particular tell me that opposing teams have made it a point to attack from the point guard spot as much as possible against the Raptors. Combine that with Andrea Bargnani's weak pick & roll defence, and the ever-improving crop of point guards playing in today's NBA, and this is the end result.

I think having Amir Johnson on the floor as much as possible with Calderon would help. I also think having DeRozan/Weems cover some point guards whenever possible (i.e. when Calderon can slide over to cover a spot up shooter) would also help the defence.

Here's the biggest (and unanswerable) question: What do these numbers tell us about Calderon? Is he hurt? Is this just what he is as a basketball player? Does he simply not work hard enough on defence?

(This is when I end the post with something like "time will only tell")

Decade Ending Stuff

2009-12-29T19:39:00.001-08:00

I work for That's Hockey at TSN (ironic I know, given that I write a basketball blog... is it ironic? or just coincidental?)... and we've been doing a bunch of decade-ending stuff for the show of late. Top 10 plays, moments, players, etc... The one thing we haven't really touched on is the top team of the decade, because really, there's no discussion. The best franchise in the NHL since 2000 is the Detroit Red Wings. However, the NBA is a different case. I think there are two obvious contenders, the Spurs and the Lakers. Let's consider a few things:

First, championships. The Lakers have won four titles, the Spurs three. This would seem to give the edge to the Lakers. But, when looking at an entire decade, it's important to take note of what I like to call "sustained excellence." Who was the best and most consistent, year in and year out?

REGULAR SEASON WINNING PERCENTAGE

Games played from Jan. 1, 2000 thru Dec. 29, 2009

1. SAS 573 - 245 (.700)

2. DAL 561 - 260 (.682)

3. LAL 529 - 291 (.645)

4. DET 493 - 329 (.600)

5. PHX 493 - 330 (.599)

22. TOR 370 - 453 (.449)

I thought I would throw in the Raptors there just for fun.... can you imagine how much more enjoyable it's been over the course of the last 10 years to be a Spurs fan? 203 more regular season wins, countless more playoff wins, and 3 titles... I'm so envious.

Anyways, that's pretty impressive stuff. A .700 win percentage is pretty amazing over the course of a few months, let alone 10 years! This would seem to sway the argument in San Antonio's favour.

However, the defining statistic revealed itself when I looked at the Finals from each year:

MULTIPLE FINALS APPEARANCES

THIS DECADE

LAL 6

SAS 3

DET 2

NJ 2

The Lakers made six trips to the Finals!

STAT OF THE DECADE

Here's the big question: Why has anyone put any money on any team in the Western Conference other than the Spurs or Lakers to make it to the Finals? Like at all this decade? From 1999 to 2009, the Lakers and Spurs have accounted for 10 trips to the finals, and 8 championships.

I will be flabbergasted by that note until at least the end of this decade.

Anyways, to send you off, I'll leave you with some individual stat leaders since the start of the 2000-01 season. Enjoy!

STATISTICAL LEADERS

SINCE START OF 2000-01 SEASON

GAMES: Andre Miller, 766

MINUTES: Kobe Bryant, 28101

POINTS: Kobe Bryant, 20477

REBOUNDS: Kevin Garnett, 8553

OFF. REBOUNDS: Ben Wallace, 2628

ASSISTS: Steve Nash, 6974

STEALS: Jason Kidd, 1393

BLOCKS: Ben Wallace, 1675

3PT FG: Ray Allen, 1853

PERCENTAGES

FG%: Shaquille O'Neal, .585

3PT%: Jason Kapono, .450

FT%: Reggie Miller, .915

ADVANCED STATS STUFF

PER: Lebron James, 26.4

TS%: Brent Barry, .629

OFF REB%: Jeff Foster, 15.0%

DEF REB%: Marcus Camby, 30.2%

TOT REB%: Reggie Evans, 20.8%

Off. Rating: Chris Paul, 121

Def. Rating: David Robinson & Ben Wallace, 94

Perspective

2009-12-28T23:56:00.001-08:00

The Raptors have won 4 straight games. They are also 8-4 since starting the season 7-13. This has caused some to propose drastic personnel maneuvers involving one of Toronto's franchise players.

I'm speaking of Jose Calderon. Toronto's improved play has led to many people saying Jarrett Jack should continue to start at point guard even when Calderon returns. Here is my response to this suggestion:

No.

Consider: During this 8-4 stretch, the Raptors have played four teams with a winning record. They are 1-3 against those teams. The three losses were by a combined 61 points. In those 4 games against quality competition, Jack averaged 12 points and 4 assists per game, and was a combined -14.

So what exactly is the rush to alienate a player under contract for multiple seasons at big dollars? Is Jose Calderon playing at his best this season? No. Should the Raptors have expected him to be at his best after forcing him to sit out of international action all off-season? No.

Here are Toronto's wins during this stretch: Washington, Chicago, Minnesota, Houston, New Jersey, New Orleans, and Detroit (twice). This team has yet to beat a team with a winning record on the road this season.

What is everything I've just said above? Context.

If I were strictly a numbers guy (as many of you probably think I am), then technically, I should be all for this Jack as the starting point guard movement. Jack is a +57 at the point this year, Calderon is a -93 (giving a net difference between the two of 150 points). I don't think the easy schedule explains away all of that net difference... however, there are other factors (injuries, rust, etc...). And given the contract situation, and just the fact that Calderon is a better player, I think you need to stay the course with your original starter.

THE ENIGMA THAT IS SONNY WEEMS

He can't shoot. His handle doesn't even look that nice. He can D up reasonably well. Somehow that all adds up to a great performance. During this winning streak (and yes, all those caveats about Jack apply here as well), Weems has been a plus in each game... leading to a combined plus/minus of +54 (3rd on the team during that time, and best among reserves).

His game is admittedly tough to figure out. It's hard to understand how someone that is obviously athletic, has a fairly high basketball IQ, and has decent touch (as evidenced by his alley-oop passes) can't seem to hit a 15-foot jumper consistently.

STAT OF THE DAY

(courtesy of 82games.com)

Back to my point about the Raptors really not showing much during these winning times. Toronto has played 32 games this season.

Here is how their record breaks down when you separate their opponents by net points (for-against):

vs Top 10 teams: 1-11

vs 11th-20th teams: 2-5

vs 21st-30th teams: 11-1

So, the Raptors are 3-16 against the top 20 teams in the NBA, but they're dominating the really crappy teams...... YAY!!!!

FYI: Toronto's next 6 games:

vs Charlotte

at Boston

vs San Antonio

at Orlando

at Philly

vs Boston

Absolute best case is 3-3. More likely to be 2-4 or 1-5... giving the team a 17-21 record nearly halfway through the season.

And they're going to alienate their point guard over that!

Gimme Some More cont'd

2009-12-08T05:24:00.001-08:00

A player has averaged a 24 points and 12 rebounds in a season 92 times in NBA history. We're talking Wilt Chamberlain, Oscar Robertson, Kareem, Karl Malone... all-time greats here.

Couple things:

Bosh ranks dead last in terms of minutes played when you look at all those players
Only 7 of those players took fewer shots per game than Bosh

EURO-BOSH

Don't believe Bosh plays a European style of basketball? Consider the list of players who have averaged 24 points per game and fewer than 2 turnovers in a game in a season since the start of this decade:

Dirk Nowitzki (3 times)

Peja Stojakovic (03-04)

Got a European flavour, doesn't it.

In fact, Bosh could become just the fifth player in NBA history to average more than 24 PPG, and fewer than 2 turnovers per game (Kiki Vandeweghe and Jeff Malone have also accomplished the feat).

Gimme Some More (Bosh)...

2009-12-07T21:58:00.000-08:00

Chris Bosh is averaging over 24 points and 12 rebounds per game right now. If he were to finish the season above those two thresholds, he would become just the 12th player over the last 20 years to do so.

And here lies the problem.

If you look at the numbers of those 12 players, particularly minutes played, here is the story they tell:

Tim Duncan (01-02) 40.6 *

Shaquille O'Neal (99-00) 40.0 *

Shaquille O'Neal (93-94) 39.8

Shaquille O'Neal (00-01) 39.5

Hakeem Olajuwon (92-93) 39.5

Kevin Garnett (03-04) 39.4 *

Shaquille O'Neal (96-97) 38.1

David Robinson (90-91) 37.7

Charles Barkley (92-93) 37.6 *

Patrick Ewing (92-93) 37.1

David Robinson (95-96) 36.8

Chris Bosh (09-10) 34.7

* denotes MVP season

Pretty good company Bosh finds himself in... 7 players all either current or future hall of famers...

BUT.... why is Bosh getting so little run compared to these players. Only Shaq in 93-94 and 96-97 was younger than Bosh is now. So why are all these players getting at least two minutes per game more than Bosh?

Granted, I think Bosh is the only one of these players to consistently wear a knee brace, but I digress.

Here's the big point: If this guy is gone for good at the end of the season, then maximize the return on your investment. He should be playing a MINIMUM of 38 minutes per game... no questions asked.

STAT OF THE DAY

No player in the history of the NBA has ever had a season averaging over 24 points and 12 rebounds per game, and fewer than 2 turnovers per game (Bosh is averaging 1.8 turnovers per game so far this season).

STAT OF THE DAY #2

Bosh could become the only player from that original group to have his team miss the playoffs.

John Hollinger rips Triano

2009-12-04T07:05:00.000-08:00

From his PER Diem:

OK, we need to stop mincing words and call this what it is: Jay Triano is in over his head, and if the Raptors don't do something about it, it will cost them their best player this summer. The 146 points Wednesday night by Atlanta was the latest ridiculous example of Toronto's defensive ineptitude, and while the roster composed by Bryan Colangelo is far from ideal in this respect, this should not be the worst defensive team in history. Right now it is.

Getting defensive effort from players is one of the basic measuring sticks for an NBA coach, and Triano has failed miserably in this respect. The carping in the locker room following Wednesday's defeat spoke volumes -- players were basically begging the coaching staff to go through the film and go over the mistakes so they could correct them. Which makes one wonder what on earth the Raps were doing for the first quarter of the season while opponents conducted layup drills at their expense.

There's an added urgency for the Raps because of Chris Bosh's impending free agency -- if the Raptors can't show substantial improvement, he's probably gone after the season. And it appears there's no chance of Toronto showing that kind of progress under Triano. It would be a desperation move to change conductors at the 20-game mark, but I'm not sure the Raptors' situation gives them much of a choice.

Dissecting a Disaster

2009-12-04T06:12:00.001-08:00

From Dave Feschuk's article yesterday: "...more than one veteran voice said Triano is failing to call out the players who are making the most egregious defensive mistakes.

"Every time something happens it's always, `It's okay, it's all right.' It's not all right," said Jarrett Jack..."Problems go by without attacking them or challenging them or bringing them to the forefront and getting them solved. We can't keep keep putting them to the back of the bus and just saying, `That's okay.' It's not all right. Everybody can't walk on eggshells around here and say, `We're playing good basketball.' We're not."

Said Antoine Wright: "You've got to address (the defensive issues) and you've got to show people on tape. It's not personal. If you want to win, you're going to have to make some sacrifices."

Wright said Triano has failed to "call out" under-performing Raptors because unnamed teammates are "too sensitive" to criticism.

From Mr. Feschuk's article today: Sam Mitchell on who he was hard on: "People don't understand how relentless I was on Jose and Chris. I cut 'em no slack... Andrea it was different. I cut Andrea a lot of slack."

READING BETWEEN THE LINES

Mr. Feschuk is an intelligent writer. He knows there are certain things he can and cannot write in the paper. Jarrett Jack and Antoine Wright are both intelligent (if not exactly in-shape) basketball players. They know they can't call out specific players in the papers.

However, if you read between the lines of Mr. Feschuk's columns over the last two days, I think you'll see that he's saying the Raptors are growing frustrated about how Andrea Bargnani is treated by this organization.

You even get the sense from the Mitchell quote that he didn't even want to cut Bargnani that much slack, that it was almost an organizational mandate to do so.

MY OWN OBSERVATION

As I mentioned earlier this week, I was at the Suns game on Sunday. On two separate occasions, Bargnani just totally forgot to rotate on defence (I'm sure he forgot to rotate many more times than that, but I'm just pointing these two out for a specific reason). After his gaffe led to dunks for the Suns, a visibly frustrated Hedo Turkoglu threw his hands in the air and said/yelled something in the direction of Bargnani. The Italian was naturally oblivious to Turkoglu's criticism, and merely continued up the court, happily mouth-breathing away.

"DO SOMETHING..."

That was the plea from Chris Bosh to his coaches (said thru the media) after the loss in Atlanta.

Luckily, I'm here to provide the answers for Bosh, here is a five-point plan to make this team better:

1. Belinelli for DeRozan in the starting five - Talked about in my previous post.

2. Johnson for Bargnani in the starting five - I didn't agree with this move earlier this week, however, I didn't realize how much this team doesn't respect Bargnani's work ethic. This is a move made to keep this team together, not necessarily one that makes sense on paper.

3. Abandon the idea that Jack is a combo-guard - Jack is a +3 as point guard, a -48 as a shooting guard. It doesn't get any simpler than that. The Calderon-Jack backcourt has been about as successful as the Caldeford pairing of years past.

4. Cut Turkoglu's minutes until he gets in better shape - He's out of shape. I think that's obvious to anyone who watches this team play on a consistent basis. However, the solution to this problem is almost a catch-22. Do you play him to get him in shape (and thus, reward him for bad behaviour)? Or do you sit him to punish him for being out of shape (and thus, potentially only make the problem worse)? I think you have to sit him down, and say, we need you to be quicker and stronger out there. We need you to be our leader on the floor, and you can't do that in the shape you're in right now. Until you're in that kind of shape, then you're going to be a 24 minute per night guy. I think, at that point, Turkoglu's pride will take over, and you'll see him wake up.

5. Maximize Antoine Wright's minutes - He's been awful this year, no question. But they've misused him and put him in the wrong lineups. Simply put, you cannot have him out there with DeRozan as the shooting guard. Wright should only be on the floor when Belinelli is out there as a shooter. That way, he'll know what his role is when he's out there. Be scrappy, go for loose balls, attack the basket, and defend. If the Raptors trot out a unit with DeRozan and Wright out on the floor, Wright's saying, I'm more ready to contribute than this kid, give me the ball! The numbers agree with me on this:

STAT OF THE DAY ALERT!

DeRozan & Wright have played almost an entire 48-minute game on the court together this season, and the Raptors have been outscored by 43 points in that time!

FIVE POINT PLAN - REVIEW

Let's review my changes, and see what it would give us as a new overall picture for this team (with avg minutes played in parentheses)

Starting Five: Calderon (30), Belinelli (33), Turkoglu (24), Bosh (38), Johnson (28)

Backup PG: Jack (18)

Backup SG: DeRozan (15)

Backup SF: Wright (24)

Backup big: Bargnani (30)

That, to me, is a tightly knit, better defined rotation. Everyone will have a better idea of the role they will play. The team will get the sense that Bargnani is being punished for bad defensive play (even though he'll still play 30 minutes per game). And we'll never have to see the Calderon-Jack backcourt ever again.

STAT OF THE DAY DOUBLE-DIP SURPRISE SPECIAL

When Calderon & Jack are on the court together this season, the Raptors are a -50.

The Defence Rests....

2009-12-02T05:24:00.001-08:00

Should be the slogan for this year's Raptors.

Went to the Suns game on Sunday, and I was amazed at how bad the Raptors defence is in person. Granted, Phoenix is a great offensive team, but Toronto's defenders are just, well, beyond description.

Their key strategy of the day was to switch on every high pick & roll, trusting that Andrea Bargnani could contain Steve Nash one-on-one. Apparently, help defence from whoever was covering Grant Hill in the corner was out of the question.

My favourite part of the various game recaps was the part where they said Bargnani and the Raptors defence actually did a decent job on "containing Nash." This is where the Raptors now find themselves: Allowing 113 points overall, while allowing the point guard to rack up 20 points and 16 assists is classified as "containing" the aforementioned point guard. I will now set fire to the remaining Raptors tickets sitting on my dresser.

THE REGGIE EVANS MYTH

This awful defence has led to a steady stream of "this will change when Reggie Evans finally plays" lines from fans and media alike. Let me reply:

WRONG!

There are two ways I respond to this:

1. What do you really expect Reggie Evans to do?

Last season, he had a net PER of -10.4. When he was on the court, the 76ers were outscored by 3 points per 48 minutes. When he was off the court, the 76ers outscored their opponents by 1 point per game.

So, essentially, the Sixers were a better team without Evans on the floor.

2. How much can one player affect a whole team's defence when he's playing just 30% of the game?

Over his entire career, Reggie Evans has averaged about 20 minutes per game. With Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani firmly entrenched in their starting roles in Toronto, that leaves about 27 minutes of front court time to the rest of Toronto's bigs (Evans, Johnson, & Nesterovic).

So, unless they completely sit down Amir Johnson when Evans returns (I doubt that will happen), Evans is looking at between 12-20 minutes per game.

Really, how much could one player affect a team's defence even when he's playing 80 or 90% of the game, let alone 30%? At the end of the day, each of Toronto's five starters is a below-average defensive player. Nothing will change that, meaning nothing (not even the presence of Reggie Evans) will change the fact that the Raptors are the worst defensive team in basketball.

WON-LOST PROFILES (& MY STAT OF THE DAY)

This is my stat of the day. It's tracked by 82games.com, and it's an individual won-lost record based on whether your team outscored the opposition in a given game when you were on the court.

Here is the list of players on the Toronto Raptors with a winning individual won-lost record:

Hedo Turkoglu 9-6

That is all.

OBSERVATION OF THE DAY (a new feature!)

Have you ever noticed Andrea Bargnani is faster on the offensive end than he is on the defensive end?

This is my first rebuttal whenever anyone disputes that defensive performance isn't effort-based.

FIX OF THE DAY

It's time to end the DeMar DeRozan as a starter experience. The Raptors get outscored by 7 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor (and he pretty much exclusively plays with Toronto's best players). What does this mean? Well, it means Toronto is always having to dig out of a first quarter & third quarter hole. It means they're always playing from behind, which is actually very tough to do mentally.

And again, if you're following the logic that nothing will change the fact that Toronto is a bad defensive team (in case you haven't noticed, I'm firmly in this camp), then you should do everything you can to just maximize Toronto's offensive capability.

If that's the case, there's only one move to make: Put Belinelli in the starting lineup.

The Raptors average 115.86 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor (tops on the team), and he's one of just four players on the team with a plus/minus greater than zero for the season (Bosh, Turkoglu, and Bargnani being the other three).

And if you want to keep it really simple, that lineup (Calderon, Belinelli, Turkoglu, Bosh, Bargnani) has been Toronto's best this season in terms of offensive efficiency and net efficiency. Therefore, it follows that you should probably put your best lineup out on the floor as much as possible.

Best Raptor-related information of the year

2009-11-25T13:35:00.000-08:00

Courtesy of Basketball Prospectus

I don't want to use too much of their information here (they deserve the hits), but suffice to say, it is the best stuff I've read this year. It's simple, concise, and has some pretty interesting stats.

Essentially, they noticed the same thing I noticed a few weeks back (and that Hollinger wrote about last week): The Raptors are the best offensive team in the league, and the worst defensive team.

Where they expanded on that was how they compared Toronto's offence and defence to the league average (providing a bit more year-over-year context). The results were staggering:

"It's very early, but so far the Raptors have both the best offense and the worst defense since the merger, as measured by percentage above or below league average.

TOR 09-10 +9.5%
Dal 03-04 +9.5%
Phx 04-05 +8.6%
Dal 01-02 +7.8%
Phx 06-07 +7.4%
Dal 02-03 +7.4%
Sac 03-04 +7.2%

If nothing else, the Raptors have a pretty good shot at being the best offense that was not run by Steve Nash, a title currently held by the 2003-04 Sacramento Kings. Yet their defense has been even worse relative to the league.

TOR 09-10 -9.6%
Lac 98-99 -7.8%
Sea 05-06 -7.6%
Den 98-99 -7.5%
Orl 03-04 -7.1%
Dal 92-93 -7.1%

Needless to say, none of those other teams made the playoffs. In fact, three of the five changed coaches midseason. Only one of the five coaches made it all the way to the next year (the Clippers' Chris Ford)."

By "the merger," they were referring to the NBA/ABA merger in 1975.

That's amazing stuff, and it was a great read.

Raps win! Raps win! Raps win!

2009-11-25T07:40:00.000-08:00

The Raptors scored a lot of points against a below-average defensive team last night. This, apparently, is cause for celebration.

I'm celebrating. But only because it allows me to vent about my problems with mainstream journalism.

A prominent Toronto writer used last night's game as evidence to make the following points:

1. The Raptors aren't that bad of a defensive team

2. Andrea Bargnani is not that bad of a rebounder

I don't even know where to begin, but for consistency's sake, let's look at the first point.

This writer believed that the Raptors get a bit of a bad rep on the defensive end because they play at such a fast pace and there's so many possessions in their games. Factually, that is an incorrect statement. The Raptors have had 95.4 possessions per game this season, ranking 14th in the NBA.

The writer then went on to say that Toronto's defence has shown enough glimpses of being "passable" to expect that it will be "passable" on more nights than not for the rest of the season. This is, again, factually incorrect. The Raptors defence has not been passable, it's been bad, historically bad (as John Hollinger put it, last week). Even after that "solid" effort last night, the Raptors are dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 113 points per 100 possessions. The next closest team, the Hornets, are allowing 109 points per 100 possessions. In other words, the Raptors are going be dead last in defensive efficiency for awhile, and no matter how loosely you define "passable," that ain't passable.

About Bargnani's rebounding: He ranks 52nd out of 61 centres in rebounding rate this season. That is bad. I'm not going to expand on that.

Here's the thing: This writer used a couple micro-moments from last night's game and extrapolated on them to make his points. However, it's such a deceiving way to talk about a game. Consider the following:

Jose Calderon has been criticized for being a below-average defender this season. But last night, Calderon had a great play where he anticipated a pass and picked it off for the steal and lay up. Later on in the game, he stepped up from the weak side to take a charge... two great defensive plays from a player that deserves more credit for his work on the defensive end.

Those plays were made up but you get the point. Just because I eat salad every once in awhile, doesn't mean I'm a healthy eater.

You can't cherry pick particular plays in order to make overall statements about a player or a team. You need to consider the entire package.

How are the Toronto Raptors not like the Boston Celtics?

2009-11-24T06:57:00.000-08:00

Let me count the ways.

1. Toronto Raptor players are actually likable, as people.

2. Toronto Raptor players would get technical fouls for clapping in the face of an opposing player. Boston Celtic players are somehow immune to this call.

3. Toronto Raptor players are not superhuman. They cannot leave a game in a wheelchair, and return mere minutes later as if nothing happened.

4. Boston Celtic players can defend... very well. Toronto Raptor players... cannot.

And the fourth point is what I'm going to talk about today. I want to compare the defences of the Raptors and Celtics. There are some qualitative, uhhhh, qualities that are obvious. Intensity, intelligence, and aggressiveness seem to be the staples of Boston's defence. Find the antonyms of each of those words and you'll find the staples of Toronto's defence.

But is there a way to quantify the differences (other than just by the simple, usual metrics - i.e. points per game, field goal percentage allowed, etc...)? Let's find out.

(courtesy of 82games.com)

INSIDE VS OUTSIDE

Toronto Raptors' head coach Jay Triano made defending the paint a huge point of emphasis for this team throughout the pre-season and early in the regular season.

That has translated to the fact that the Raptors have forced opponents to take 63% of their shots as jumpers.

This is one of those numbers that seems well, completely useless without a point of reference.

Here's your point of reference: Boston Celtic opponents are forced to take 72% of their shots as jumpers.

And not only do the Celtics force more jumpers, but they force more missed jumpers as well. Here's the total breakdown for outside shots:

TOR opp: 63% of total attempts, 47.4 FG%, 67% of made FG are assisted

BOS opp: 72% of total attempts, 43.3 FG%, 62% of made FG are assisted

Now the breakdown for inside shots:

TOR opp: 54.8 FG%, 36.1 PPG

BOS opp: 51.6 FG%, 25.6 PPG

SHOT CLOCK ANALYSIS

From looking at the breakdown of their defences in terms of how much time is left in the shotclock, it's pretty clear that the Raptors have trouble defending early in the clock (or conversely, that the Celtics focus on defending in those first 10-15 seconds of the clock.

Consider: In the last 9 seconds of the shot clock, the Celtics actually allow more points per game than the Raptors.

However, let's look at how they break down in the first 15 seconds:

TOR opp (0-10 sec): 39% of attempts, 57.0 FG%, 36.8 PPG

BOS opp (0-10 sec): 36% of attempts, 50.9 FG%, 28.5 PPG

TOR opp (11-15 sec): 26% of attempts, 53.8 FG%, 23.1 PPG

BOS opp (11-15 sec): 28% of attempts, 45.2 FG%, 19.3 PPG

That's a combined difference of around 5% in field goal percentage, and nearly 23 points per game!

The following sentence isn't groundbreaking by any stretch of the imagination, but good NBA defences are good at taking away the first or second option on a play. They will be happy if the weak side player in the corner is forced to take an open three with 4 seconds left in the clock. There's a reason that player (think DeMar DeRozan in the corner) is the weak side option. He's usually a pretty weak offensive player.

I also think this has a lot to do with perimeter defence (namely, pick & roll). Scoring early in the clock implies scoring a lot off your first move (which is increasingly the high pick & roll in today's NBA). This is an indictment not only of Toronto's perimeter players, but also Bargnani & Bosh, who are pretty weak when it comes to helping on the pick & roll (I won't get into the technical aspects of that here).

FOUL BREAKDOWN

One other thing I want to make note of... and I'm not even sure what it really means. Check out the foul breakdown for these two teams:

TOR: 158 shooting, 136 personal, 29 loose ball

BOS: 131 shooting, 105 personal, 17 loose ball

That's a difference of 70 fouls!

Now that is very unexpected, and counter-intuitive. Based on the fact that Boston is so much more aggressive than the Raptors defensively, one would expect to see more fouls called against the Celtics.

Here are two possible explanations:

1. Boston's reputation as a good defensive team provides them with the benefit of the doubt from officials.

2. Boston's intelligence, and overall basketball IQ as defenders gives them the ability to defend without fouling (I'll call this the anti-Bargnani effect).

To be honest, I think it's probably a combination of the two factors. And unfortunately, there's pretty much no way of measuring this.

CONCLUSION

I've concluded that the Celtics are a much better defensive team than the Raptors. I've also concluded that it will snow at some point this winter in Toronto.

BONUS COVERAGE

I looked at every team in the NBA to see how many jumpers they force their opponents to take. Only four teams force fewer jumpers than the Raptors:

Lakers 62%

Nets 62%

Hawks 61%

Thunder 60%

With the Lakers and Hawks, I almost feel like it's intentional. "Oh, you want to go inside on Josh Smith and Al Horford or Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom? Go right ahead!"

And when you look at the top of the list, you see teams with sound defensive principles, sound defensive athletes, and good coaching:

Celtics 72%

Heat 70%

Spurs 70%

Cavs 69%