Consider this a fulfillment of a request from Dave Naylor and Bruce Arthur...
Earlier tonight, Dave tweeted: "Would love to see MLB payrolls 1992 and 2012 for the other 29 teams."
This is what I am here for (with big thanks to baseball-reference.com):
(but since 2012 payrolls aren't finalized, I'll be going with 2011 numbers)
INCREASE IN PAYROLL
FROM 1992-2011
1. NYY $165 M
2. PHI $148 M
3. BOS $118 M
4. LAA $104 M
5. CHW $98 M
6. CHC $95 M
7. SFG $85 M
8. MIN $85 M
9. DET $78 M
10. STL $78 M
11. NYM $74 M
12. SEA $63 M
13. TEX $62 M
14. BAL $61 M
15. LAD $59 M
16. HOU $55 M
17. MIL $54 M
18. ATL $52 M
19. WAS/MTL $44 M
20. CIN $40 M
21. CLE $39 M
22. OAK $26 M
23. SDP $19 M
24. PIT $11 M
25. TOR $6 M
26. KC $2 M
TOR: $56 M IN 1992, $62 M IN 2011 (AFTER EXCHANGE RATE)
So, in other words, only the Royals have had a smaller payroll increase between 1992 & 2011. This isn't the perfect measure --- for example, it doesn't take into account what teams spent in the years between 1992 and 2011 --- but the point still holds: This is one of the many reasons why Jays fans are frustrated. Here's something that'll make you even more frustrated:
The average inflation rate from 1992-2011 was 2.5%... if the Jays simply kept up with inflation, their payroll would be somewhere close to $90 m.
That is all.
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Sunday, November 27, 2011
Five-point plan
Most observers of the NBA in this city are already treating this season as a write-off. They say the most important part of this season for the Raptors should be securing a high draft pick for the 2012 Draft. I disagree, and a look into the recent past is my main argument.
The Raptors won 16 games in the 1997-98 season. Their leading scorer was John Wallace. Heading into a lockout-shortened season, the Raptors didn't simply wave the white flag and plan for the next draft, here is what they did:
If there was anything to be learned from the 1998-99 season, it was the opportunity it provided for young teams. A 23-year old Allen Iverson led the league in scoring. 22-year old Tim Duncan led San Antonio to its first NBA title. And the young, upstart Raptors became the most exciting team in the league, finishing with a surprising 23-27 record.
Glen Grunwald could have tanked that season, and geared up for a high pick in the '99 draft. In fact, that was the exact route taken by the Chicago Bulls in the post-Jordan era. Chicago got that first overall pick in '99 (Elton Brand), and it still took them six seasons to post a winning record. Instead, Grunwald did everything he could to compete, laying the foundation for three consecutive playoff seasons in the years ahead.
What do I take from this look into the past: There's an inherent, immeasurable quality that veterans bring to a young team. DeMar DeRozan, Ed Davis, and Andrea Bargnani could benefit greatly from seeing how players from winning teams operate on a day-to-day basis.
No season should be over before it begins.
And with that, here's a five-point plan to (immediately) improve the Raptors:
Toronto has 10 players under contract, here is their depth chart:
STARTING FIVE
PG: Jose Calderon, Jerryd Bayless
SG: DeMar DeRozan,
SF: James Johnson,
PF: Ed Davis,
C: Andrea Bargnani
BENCH
Jerryd Bayless, Leandro Barbosa, Linas Kleiza, Amir Johnson, Solomon Alabi
(note: Sonny Weems signed a contract in Europe that did not have an out-clause if the NBA returned, so he is not playing this season with Toronto)
Action #1. Use amnesty clause on Leandro Barbosa
Barbosa is a player (one of many) that doesn't fit into Dwayne Casey's vision of a defensive-minded team. He's also a back-up guard making $7 million this season. That cap space could be better used elsewhere.
Action #2. Move Linas Kleiza to the end of the bench
When he was signed as a free-agent, Kleiza was marketed as a combo forward with good size and good shooting skills. Instead, he shot 44% from the field, 29% from three-point land, and 63% from the line. 16 players racked up at least 100 minutes for Toronto last season, and Kleiza's 10.1 PER ranked dead last among those 16.
He's also coming off microfracture surgery (a process with varying degrees of success). This team wants to be fast and athletic, Kleiza is neither.
Action #3. Sign two defensive-minded wing players (one, or both that can preferably shoot from the outside)
The NBA is filled with players who are nearly impossible to guard on the perimeter. Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade are just a few. The best defenders don't necessarily stop these players, but they make things as difficult as can be for them. These defenders challenge all jumpers, take away favourite moves, and make stars work to get open.
Luckily, there are many options on the free agent market, including Shane Battier, Grant Hill, DeShawn Stevenson, Tayshaun Prince, Josh Howard Andrei Kirilenko, and Jared Jeffries.
The dream pickup would be Battier, but he's the type of player a championship team will be salivating over.
Action #4. Sign a defensive-minded post player
I wrote this yesterday, but it bears mentioning again: Here are the 8 starting centres for the teams that made the conference semi-finals last season:
As I wrote yesterday, acquiring Tyson Chandler or Greg Oden would be a huge (unlikely) coup for Toronto, while a Joel Przybilla signing would be a nice consolation prize. Here are two other free agents that could fit:
I wrote earlier about how Toronto's young players need to learn how to win. This is one way to do that.
Bargnani had the worst defensive rating in basketball last season (according to basketball-reference). The year before he had the 9th worst, so it's not exactly a statistical anomaly.
Quick aside: DeMar DeRozan had the worst defensive rating in 09-10, and 7th worst last season. But I know putting him on the bench isn't a realistic option.
Bargnani is a gifted scorer, and he is totally indifferent on the defensive end. All last season, the team failed to hold Bargnani accountable for his defensive miscues. Defence is mostly about effort, and admittedly, there aren't many ways an NBA coach can alter a player's effort level. However, one option for a coach is to sit players down who aren't giving 100%.
Maybe Jay Triano thought he couldn't afford to sit Bargnani (and he could have been right), but affordable or not, a message needs to be sent. Until he gets with the program defensively, Bargnani should come off the bench.
Final (Hypothetical) Result
STARTING FIVE
PG: Jose Calderon
SG: DeMar DeRozan
SF: Andrei Kirilenko
PF: Ed Davis
C: Jason Collins
First 3 off the bench: DeShawn Stevenson, Andrea Bargnani, Jerryd Bayless
Remaining: James Johnson, Amir Johnson, Linas Kleiza, Solomon Alabi
Other than signing Kirilenko, I think all these moves are very realistic, and they all definitely improve the team substantially on the defensive side of the ball.
The Raptors won 16 games in the 1997-98 season. Their leading scorer was John Wallace. Heading into a lockout-shortened season, the Raptors didn't simply wave the white flag and plan for the next draft, here is what they did:
- Drafted Vince Carter
- Traded 2 first-round picks for 36-year old centre Kevin Willis
- Traded Marcus Camby to the Knicks for 36-year old power forward Charles Oakley
If there was anything to be learned from the 1998-99 season, it was the opportunity it provided for young teams. A 23-year old Allen Iverson led the league in scoring. 22-year old Tim Duncan led San Antonio to its first NBA title. And the young, upstart Raptors became the most exciting team in the league, finishing with a surprising 23-27 record.
Glen Grunwald could have tanked that season, and geared up for a high pick in the '99 draft. In fact, that was the exact route taken by the Chicago Bulls in the post-Jordan era. Chicago got that first overall pick in '99 (Elton Brand), and it still took them six seasons to post a winning record. Instead, Grunwald did everything he could to compete, laying the foundation for three consecutive playoff seasons in the years ahead.
What do I take from this look into the past: There's an inherent, immeasurable quality that veterans bring to a young team. DeMar DeRozan, Ed Davis, and Andrea Bargnani could benefit greatly from seeing how players from winning teams operate on a day-to-day basis.
No season should be over before it begins.
And with that, here's a five-point plan to (immediately) improve the Raptors:
Toronto has 10 players under contract, here is their depth chart:
STARTING FIVE
PG: Jose Calderon, Jerryd Bayless
SG: DeMar DeRozan,
SF: James Johnson,
PF: Ed Davis,
C: Andrea Bargnani
BENCH
Jerryd Bayless, Leandro Barbosa, Linas Kleiza, Amir Johnson, Solomon Alabi
(note: Sonny Weems signed a contract in Europe that did not have an out-clause if the NBA returned, so he is not playing this season with Toronto)
Action #1. Use amnesty clause on Leandro Barbosa
Barbosa is a player (one of many) that doesn't fit into Dwayne Casey's vision of a defensive-minded team. He's also a back-up guard making $7 million this season. That cap space could be better used elsewhere.
Action #2. Move Linas Kleiza to the end of the bench
When he was signed as a free-agent, Kleiza was marketed as a combo forward with good size and good shooting skills. Instead, he shot 44% from the field, 29% from three-point land, and 63% from the line. 16 players racked up at least 100 minutes for Toronto last season, and Kleiza's 10.1 PER ranked dead last among those 16.
He's also coming off microfracture surgery (a process with varying degrees of success). This team wants to be fast and athletic, Kleiza is neither.
Action #3. Sign two defensive-minded wing players (one, or both that can preferably shoot from the outside)
The NBA is filled with players who are nearly impossible to guard on the perimeter. Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade are just a few. The best defenders don't necessarily stop these players, but they make things as difficult as can be for them. These defenders challenge all jumpers, take away favourite moves, and make stars work to get open.
Luckily, there are many options on the free agent market, including Shane Battier, Grant Hill, DeShawn Stevenson, Tayshaun Prince, Josh Howard Andrei Kirilenko, and Jared Jeffries.
The dream pickup would be Battier, but he's the type of player a championship team will be salivating over.
Action #4. Sign a defensive-minded post player
I wrote this yesterday, but it bears mentioning again: Here are the 8 starting centres for the teams that made the conference semi-finals last season:
- Joel Anthony
- Andrew Bynum
- Tyson Chandler
- Jason Collins
- Marc Gasol
- Joakim Noah
- Jermaine O'Neal
- Kendrick Perkins
As I wrote yesterday, acquiring Tyson Chandler or Greg Oden would be a huge (unlikely) coup for Toronto, while a Joel Przybilla signing would be a nice consolation prize. Here are two other free agents that could fit:
- Jeff Foster: 9-year vet moves very well, and would greatly help on rotations, and pick-and-roll defence
- Jason Collins: No one defends Dwight Howard better than Collins. According to 82games.com, Atlanta allowed 12 fewer points per 100 possessions when Collins was on the floor
I wrote earlier about how Toronto's young players need to learn how to win. This is one way to do that.
Bargnani had the worst defensive rating in basketball last season (according to basketball-reference). The year before he had the 9th worst, so it's not exactly a statistical anomaly.
Quick aside: DeMar DeRozan had the worst defensive rating in 09-10, and 7th worst last season. But I know putting him on the bench isn't a realistic option.
Bargnani is a gifted scorer, and he is totally indifferent on the defensive end. All last season, the team failed to hold Bargnani accountable for his defensive miscues. Defence is mostly about effort, and admittedly, there aren't many ways an NBA coach can alter a player's effort level. However, one option for a coach is to sit players down who aren't giving 100%.
Maybe Jay Triano thought he couldn't afford to sit Bargnani (and he could have been right), but affordable or not, a message needs to be sent. Until he gets with the program defensively, Bargnani should come off the bench.
Final (Hypothetical) Result
STARTING FIVE
PG: Jose Calderon
SG: DeMar DeRozan
SF: Andrei Kirilenko
PF: Ed Davis
C: Jason Collins
First 3 off the bench: DeShawn Stevenson, Andrea Bargnani, Jerryd Bayless
Remaining: James Johnson, Amir Johnson, Linas Kleiza, Solomon Alabi
Other than signing Kirilenko, I think all these moves are very realistic, and they all definitely improve the team substantially on the defensive side of the ball.
The Raps need defensive help (d'uh!)
112.7 ... That number tells you everything you need to know about the Raptors' plans in this truncated free agency period.
112.7 was Toronto's points allowed per 100 possessions last season, a mark that was dead last in the NBA ("per possession" offensive & defensive metrics are considered better indicators of a team's play because it takes pace into account). It was the second straight season Toronto, statistically, had the worst defence in the league. In fact, the Raptors haven't had a top 10 defence since that glory year with Kevin O'Neill at the helm.
To give another clue about Toronto's plans in the off-season, consider the following list, given in alphabetical order:
Joel Anthony
Andrew Bynum
Tyson Chandler
Jason Collins
Marc Gasol
Joakim Noah
Jermaine O'Neal
Kendrick Perkins
Those are the starting centres for the eight teams that won at least one playoff series last season. Gasol is the only one from the list that could be considered a solid offensive option (Bynum's agent and close relatives would say he is the second). The others get their playing time purely for work on the defensive side of the ball.
It sounds like a simplification, but it's true: good NBA teams minimize easy points for their opposition. Dunks, lay-ups, uncontested jumpers --- good teams don't allow many of them. The Raptors allowed a lot of them last season, and a big body that protects the rim could go a long way to helping them improve in this regard.
Here are a few different scenarios Toronto could consider:
Perfect match: Tyson Chandler
Casey's interest in Dallas' starting centre is well-documented. Chandler grabbed 19.6% of all available rebounds when he was on the floor last season. Among centres that played at least 20 minutes per game, only Dwight Howard had a higher rate (conversely, Andrea Bargnani ranked dead last in that group at 8.6%).
He has anchored a top-10 defence in each of the past four seasons, including Charlotte's top ranked unit in 2009-10.
The issue: He will be entertaining offers from various title contenders, a list that could include Miami, Boston, New York, and Dall
Potential consolation prize: Joel Przybilla
Przybilla spent six and a half seasons in Portland, before getting traded to Charlotte in a trade that saw the Trail Blazers acquire Gerald Wallace. The 32-year old hasn't been fully healthy since 2008-09, when he grabbed a career-high 8.7 rebounds per game. He is a big body that blocks shots, and is always among the leaders at the position for drawing charges.
A plus: Przybilla is a role player, and would fit in well with Toronto's plan to develop their young front court players.
A minus: His lack of mobility would be especially glaring if paired with Bargnani at power forward.
Wild Card: Restricted free agent Greg Oden (Blazers)
First, to clarify: There is no compensation in the NBA for restricted free agents (as opposed to the NHL --- where top-level RFAs garner multiple 1st round picks as compensation).
Oden has failed to live up to the hype of being the first overall pick in the 2007 draft, however when he is healthy, he is a huge defensive force. In his career, he averages 17 points, 13 rebounds, and over 3 blocks per 36 minutes of floor time. Of course, it's ridiculous to use 36 minutes as a unit of measure for Oden, because it's safe to say he'll never average over 30 per game in any season. Regardless, in 09-10, Oden led the league in rebound percentage, and blocks per minute. He's a potential game-changer.
Now, to dampen everyone's spirits: he received an $8.8 million qualifying offer from Portland, and all indications are he's expected to stay with the Blazers.
So, while high-scoring free agents such as David West and Jason Richardson will undoubtedly get lots of attention (and dollars), expect the Raptors to focus on finding an anchor on the defensive end. Just don't hold your breath waiting for a big name.
112.7 was Toronto's points allowed per 100 possessions last season, a mark that was dead last in the NBA ("per possession" offensive & defensive metrics are considered better indicators of a team's play because it takes pace into account). It was the second straight season Toronto, statistically, had the worst defence in the league. In fact, the Raptors haven't had a top 10 defence since that glory year with Kevin O'Neill at the helm.
To give another clue about Toronto's plans in the off-season, consider the following list, given in alphabetical order:
Joel Anthony
Andrew Bynum
Tyson Chandler
Jason Collins
Marc Gasol
Joakim Noah
Jermaine O'Neal
Kendrick Perkins
Those are the starting centres for the eight teams that won at least one playoff series last season. Gasol is the only one from the list that could be considered a solid offensive option (Bynum's agent and close relatives would say he is the second). The others get their playing time purely for work on the defensive side of the ball.
It sounds like a simplification, but it's true: good NBA teams minimize easy points for their opposition. Dunks, lay-ups, uncontested jumpers --- good teams don't allow many of them. The Raptors allowed a lot of them last season, and a big body that protects the rim could go a long way to helping them improve in this regard.
Here are a few different scenarios Toronto could consider:
Perfect match: Tyson Chandler
Casey's interest in Dallas' starting centre is well-documented. Chandler grabbed 19.6% of all available rebounds when he was on the floor last season. Among centres that played at least 20 minutes per game, only Dwight Howard had a higher rate (conversely, Andrea Bargnani ranked dead last in that group at 8.6%).
He has anchored a top-10 defence in each of the past four seasons, including Charlotte's top ranked unit in 2009-10.
The issue: He will be entertaining offers from various title contenders, a list that could include Miami, Boston, New York, and Dall
Potential consolation prize: Joel Przybilla
Przybilla spent six and a half seasons in Portland, before getting traded to Charlotte in a trade that saw the Trail Blazers acquire Gerald Wallace. The 32-year old hasn't been fully healthy since 2008-09, when he grabbed a career-high 8.7 rebounds per game. He is a big body that blocks shots, and is always among the leaders at the position for drawing charges.
A plus: Przybilla is a role player, and would fit in well with Toronto's plan to develop their young front court players.
A minus: His lack of mobility would be especially glaring if paired with Bargnani at power forward.
Wild Card: Restricted free agent Greg Oden (Blazers)
First, to clarify: There is no compensation in the NBA for restricted free agents (as opposed to the NHL --- where top-level RFAs garner multiple 1st round picks as compensation).
Oden has failed to live up to the hype of being the first overall pick in the 2007 draft, however when he is healthy, he is a huge defensive force. In his career, he averages 17 points, 13 rebounds, and over 3 blocks per 36 minutes of floor time. Of course, it's ridiculous to use 36 minutes as a unit of measure for Oden, because it's safe to say he'll never average over 30 per game in any season. Regardless, in 09-10, Oden led the league in rebound percentage, and blocks per minute. He's a potential game-changer.
Now, to dampen everyone's spirits: he received an $8.8 million qualifying offer from Portland, and all indications are he's expected to stay with the Blazers.
So, while high-scoring free agents such as David West and Jason Richardson will undoubtedly get lots of attention (and dollars), expect the Raptors to focus on finding an anchor on the defensive end. Just don't hold your breath waiting for a big name.
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
Arguing against the "Kobe isn't Clutch" conventional wisdom
I told Michael Grange I needed more than 140 characters to make this argument, so I moved from Twitter to this dusty ol' blog.
A quick primer: Kobe Bryant's poor late game performance in Game 1 against the Mavs renewed the "Kobe isn't clutch" argument. This argument is based on one key set of statistics that show, on game-winning shot attempts, Kobe shoots right at the league average (somewhere just below 30%).
First warning sign for me: Everyone seems to agree with this argument (except for Laker fans). This rule comes from my penchant for gambling but whenever so many people seem to agree (so vehemently) about a particular issue, that usually tells me the truth probably isn't so concrete.
Before I present some counter-statistics, let's look at two weaknesses that pop up when you look at the numbers these conventional wisdomers always cite (note: "wisdomers" not a word).
First, who decided that field goal percentage is the be-all & end-all when it comes to "clutchness"? As I said to Michael, this is like ripping on the NHL leader in game-winning goals because he also had the most potential game-winning attempts (he didn't buy this argument, but you might).
If you've played team sports at any level, there's a pecking order on each team in terms of who you look to throughout the game. But, there's also a pecking order late in the game that doesn't always perfectly correspond with that first list. Some players who don't look to score for most of the game tend to rise up in big moments. Conversely, some big-time scorers tend to shy away from the big moments, and prefer to act as a decoy or passer (more on this later).
Secondly, who decided that game-winning shots is the best measure for "clutchness"? This strikes me as a very narrow-minded definition. The best analogy for the people who make this argument are the people who believe in the (overrated) value of a closer in baseball. Isn't there just as much value in hitting a shot to put your team up 2 with 90 seconds left? Or 2 minutes left?
With that in mind, let's look at 82games.com Clutch statistics --- defined as 4th quarter or OT, less than 5 mins left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points.
This season, Kobe had a league -leading 50 pts per 48 minutes under those conditions. Here are his pts per 48 minutes (and league rank) over the past 4 seasons:
10-11 49.8 (1st)
09-10 51.2 (2nd)
09-09 56.7 (1st)
07-08 51.8 (2nd)
Some more points about this year's statistics:
- Some players thought to be more "clutch" than Kobe in most circles still shoot a higher percentage than him, but take significantly fewer attempts per 48 mins.
K. Bryant 39 fga, 40 fg%
C. Anthony 30 fga, 46 fg%
D. Nowitzki 24 fga, 46 fg%
As I've said before, detractors of Kobe will say he forces too many shots, I say most of the other players shy away from big shots (quick aside: D. Rose averages 37 fga per 48 mins in clutch... does anyone say he forces shots?).
- Kobe also takes hits for the fact that he has just one game-winning assist, and this is another bullet used as evidence for the "forcing too many shots" argument. As it turns out, Kobe averaged 7.6 assists per 48 minutes this season in the clutch. Here's how that number ranks with the 10 other players that average at least 40 pts per 48 mins in clutch (min 70 mins):
Derrick Rose 9.8
Kobe Bryant 7.6
Russell Westbrook 7.0
Dirk Nowitzki 5.6
LeBron James 4.9
Monta Ellis 4.0
Kevin Durant 2.3
Carmelo Anthony 1.3
So Kobe creates more for teammates in the clutch than Russell Westbrook, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant. Are all those players considered ball hogs as well?
- Finally, Kobe's net plus/minus in the clutch over the past four seasons: +192.
In conclusion, this argument was not meant to prove that Kobe is the "best" or "most" clutch player in the NBA. What this argument intended to do was disprove the theory that Kobe is simply an average player in the clutch.
I think I've successfully accomplished that wish. And it only took me about 14,000 characters.
A quick primer: Kobe Bryant's poor late game performance in Game 1 against the Mavs renewed the "Kobe isn't clutch" argument. This argument is based on one key set of statistics that show, on game-winning shot attempts, Kobe shoots right at the league average (somewhere just below 30%).
First warning sign for me: Everyone seems to agree with this argument (except for Laker fans). This rule comes from my penchant for gambling but whenever so many people seem to agree (so vehemently) about a particular issue, that usually tells me the truth probably isn't so concrete.
Before I present some counter-statistics, let's look at two weaknesses that pop up when you look at the numbers these conventional wisdomers always cite (note: "wisdomers" not a word).
First, who decided that field goal percentage is the be-all & end-all when it comes to "clutchness"? As I said to Michael, this is like ripping on the NHL leader in game-winning goals because he also had the most potential game-winning attempts (he didn't buy this argument, but you might).
If you've played team sports at any level, there's a pecking order on each team in terms of who you look to throughout the game. But, there's also a pecking order late in the game that doesn't always perfectly correspond with that first list. Some players who don't look to score for most of the game tend to rise up in big moments. Conversely, some big-time scorers tend to shy away from the big moments, and prefer to act as a decoy or passer (more on this later).
Secondly, who decided that game-winning shots is the best measure for "clutchness"? This strikes me as a very narrow-minded definition. The best analogy for the people who make this argument are the people who believe in the (overrated) value of a closer in baseball. Isn't there just as much value in hitting a shot to put your team up 2 with 90 seconds left? Or 2 minutes left?
With that in mind, let's look at 82games.com Clutch statistics --- defined as 4th quarter or OT, less than 5 mins left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points.
This season, Kobe had a league -leading 50 pts per 48 minutes under those conditions. Here are his pts per 48 minutes (and league rank) over the past 4 seasons:
10-11 49.8 (1st)
09-10 51.2 (2nd)
09-09 56.7 (1st)
07-08 51.8 (2nd)
Some more points about this year's statistics:
- Some players thought to be more "clutch" than Kobe in most circles still shoot a higher percentage than him, but take significantly fewer attempts per 48 mins.
K. Bryant 39 fga, 40 fg%
C. Anthony 30 fga, 46 fg%
D. Nowitzki 24 fga, 46 fg%
As I've said before, detractors of Kobe will say he forces too many shots, I say most of the other players shy away from big shots (quick aside: D. Rose averages 37 fga per 48 mins in clutch... does anyone say he forces shots?).
- Kobe also takes hits for the fact that he has just one game-winning assist, and this is another bullet used as evidence for the "forcing too many shots" argument. As it turns out, Kobe averaged 7.6 assists per 48 minutes this season in the clutch. Here's how that number ranks with the 10 other players that average at least 40 pts per 48 mins in clutch (min 70 mins):
Derrick Rose 9.8
Kobe Bryant 7.6
Russell Westbrook 7.0
Dirk Nowitzki 5.6
LeBron James 4.9
Monta Ellis 4.0
Kevin Durant 2.3
Carmelo Anthony 1.3
So Kobe creates more for teammates in the clutch than Russell Westbrook, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant. Are all those players considered ball hogs as well?
- Finally, Kobe's net plus/minus in the clutch over the past four seasons: +192.
In conclusion, this argument was not meant to prove that Kobe is the "best" or "most" clutch player in the NBA. What this argument intended to do was disprove the theory that Kobe is simply an average player in the clutch.
I think I've successfully accomplished that wish. And it only took me about 14,000 characters.
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Turn (over) me up some! (inside joke for the Woychyshyn brothers)
So, the Raptors are a bad team. This, I understand, is not earth-shattering news. I suspect it's not even glass-shattering news (or news at all for that matter).
But, looking at the numbers, can we figure out why they're a bad team? Naked eye observation tells me they give up a bunch of easy buckets, and have to work too hard for their own. But I'm not sure how accurate that is.
While looking through some numbers, I came across this surprising stat (I'll call it my stat of the day):
STAT OF THE DAY
Toronto Raptors Turnover Pct
Since 2000-01
2010-11 14.8
2003-04 14.1
2001-02 13.6
2002-03 13.6
2006-07 13.0
Putting that into words, the Raptors are turning the ball over more often than any other season since the turn of the century. This is (somewhat) surprising, given that Jose Calderon is back as Toronto's full-time starting point guard, but less surprising if you think about the numbers just a little bit. Consider a few factors:
1. Calderon's turnover rate is at its highest point since his rookie season.
How much of this can be attributed to Calderon? Tough to say. I would submit that part of this is reflective of inexperienced post players (Bargnani, Johnson, Evans, Davis, Dorsey) not knowing how to properly seal, pick & roll, etc...
2. Linas Kleiza travels about once every 2.4 minutes
This number might be an approximation (and by approximation, I mean exaggeration)
3. Chris Bosh ain't walkin' thru that door
Turnover Pct This Season
Joey Dorsey 28.1
Reggie Evans 20.5
Amir Johnson 12.7
Chris Bosh's career turnover pct - 11.0
You see what I'm getting at. Say what you will about Mr. Bosh, but for someone who had the ball in his hands an awful lot, he didn't cough it up very often (is that because he never passed the ball with any type of degree of difficulty - well, yes). And Mr. Bosh's minutes have been replaced (for the most part) with a trio of players with a (minutes-weighted) turnover percentage of 17.5.
That probably explains the turnovers more than anything.
OTHER NOTABLE TEAM STATS
Two things I came across that interested me -
94.5 Pace Factor - highest ever (prev. high - 95-96)
I'm not sure if we've talked about this (I'm pretty sure we have), but Pace has no correlation with winning whatsoever. Having said that, teams that go into seasons knowing they are less talented than the majority of the league usually try one of two strategies -
1. Either really slow the pace down, make it a game of as few possessions as possible (thereby increasing the role luck plays over the course of a game)... think Kevin O'Neill's Raptors;
2. Or really fast the pace up (if "slow down" is a term, shouldn't "fast up" be one as well?), and hope even though your team isn't as talented as most, that at least you can teach effort, fitness, etc... and hope sprinting can lead to points/wins.
Now, my eyes tell me the first strategy is much more efficient (and likely to succeed) with less talented players. Less talented players are usually less athletic, and less athletic doesn't usually work when you fast the pace up. I also think, historically, the first option has been more successful. Think of the Milwaukee Bucks last season, or the 95-96 Florida Panthers (oh, this isn't a hockey blog?).
Anyways, the Raptors are clearly trying out the second strategy. But there's a reason why this will NEVER work for this team:
32.7 3pt Pct - worst ever (prev. low - 34.1 - 98-99)
First of all, no matter what pace you play, if you're shooting this poorly from the three-point line, you better be damn good somewhere else, and the Raptors don't fit that mold.
But, if you're trying to play an up-tempo game when you know you're outmanned, that strategy will ONLY work if you can kick it out for lots of wide open threes in transition.
Consider this:
Pace above 94, 3pt pct below 33%
Since 1995-96
02-03 Cle 17 wins
01-02 GS 21 wins
00-01 GS 17 wins
99-00 GS 19 wins
99-00 Sac 44 wins
98-99 Sac 44 wins (proj. win total)
96-97 Phi 22 wins
Few things here -
1. There's a reason this hasn't happened in 8 years. If you're playing at a fast pace, you're shooting the ball well from outside. If you're not, your coach adjusts and slows the pace down. In other words, there's no reason in rushing down the court to take contested 2s.
2. The average win total of those teams - 26. Toronto is on pace for 28.
3. The only playoff team on that list - The late '90s Kings. In other words, you can play at a fast pace and shoot poorly from 3pt land........ IF you have two of the best passing big men of the last 30 years (Divac & Webber) on your team getting you layup after layup.
My closing advice to the Raptors:
I know why they won't do a Kevin O'Neill / Scott Skiles type of transformation. That type of basketball isn't (necessarily) fun to watch. But, if you're going to keep up with this pace of play, please find some three point shooters to throw on your wings. This current collection of DeRozan (10%), Weems (26%), Kleiza (32%), and Barbosa (34%) just isn't good enough.
But, looking at the numbers, can we figure out why they're a bad team? Naked eye observation tells me they give up a bunch of easy buckets, and have to work too hard for their own. But I'm not sure how accurate that is.
While looking through some numbers, I came across this surprising stat (I'll call it my stat of the day):
STAT OF THE DAY
Toronto Raptors Turnover Pct
Since 2000-01
2010-11 14.8
2003-04 14.1
2001-02 13.6
2002-03 13.6
2006-07 13.0
Putting that into words, the Raptors are turning the ball over more often than any other season since the turn of the century. This is (somewhat) surprising, given that Jose Calderon is back as Toronto's full-time starting point guard, but less surprising if you think about the numbers just a little bit. Consider a few factors:
1. Calderon's turnover rate is at its highest point since his rookie season.
How much of this can be attributed to Calderon? Tough to say. I would submit that part of this is reflective of inexperienced post players (Bargnani, Johnson, Evans, Davis, Dorsey) not knowing how to properly seal, pick & roll, etc...
2. Linas Kleiza travels about once every 2.4 minutes
This number might be an approximation (and by approximation, I mean exaggeration)
3. Chris Bosh ain't walkin' thru that door
Turnover Pct This Season
Joey Dorsey 28.1
Reggie Evans 20.5
Amir Johnson 12.7
Chris Bosh's career turnover pct - 11.0
You see what I'm getting at. Say what you will about Mr. Bosh, but for someone who had the ball in his hands an awful lot, he didn't cough it up very often (is that because he never passed the ball with any type of degree of difficulty - well, yes). And Mr. Bosh's minutes have been replaced (for the most part) with a trio of players with a (minutes-weighted) turnover percentage of 17.5.
That probably explains the turnovers more than anything.
OTHER NOTABLE TEAM STATS
Two things I came across that interested me -
94.5 Pace Factor - highest ever (prev. high - 95-96)
I'm not sure if we've talked about this (I'm pretty sure we have), but Pace has no correlation with winning whatsoever. Having said that, teams that go into seasons knowing they are less talented than the majority of the league usually try one of two strategies -
1. Either really slow the pace down, make it a game of as few possessions as possible (thereby increasing the role luck plays over the course of a game)... think Kevin O'Neill's Raptors;
2. Or really fast the pace up (if "slow down" is a term, shouldn't "fast up" be one as well?), and hope even though your team isn't as talented as most, that at least you can teach effort, fitness, etc... and hope sprinting can lead to points/wins.
Now, my eyes tell me the first strategy is much more efficient (and likely to succeed) with less talented players. Less talented players are usually less athletic, and less athletic doesn't usually work when you fast the pace up. I also think, historically, the first option has been more successful. Think of the Milwaukee Bucks last season, or the 95-96 Florida Panthers (oh, this isn't a hockey blog?).
Anyways, the Raptors are clearly trying out the second strategy. But there's a reason why this will NEVER work for this team:
32.7 3pt Pct - worst ever (prev. low - 34.1 - 98-99)
First of all, no matter what pace you play, if you're shooting this poorly from the three-point line, you better be damn good somewhere else, and the Raptors don't fit that mold.
But, if you're trying to play an up-tempo game when you know you're outmanned, that strategy will ONLY work if you can kick it out for lots of wide open threes in transition.
Consider this:
Pace above 94, 3pt pct below 33%
Since 1995-96
02-03 Cle 17 wins
01-02 GS 21 wins
00-01 GS 17 wins
99-00 GS 19 wins
99-00 Sac 44 wins
98-99 Sac 44 wins (proj. win total)
96-97 Phi 22 wins
Few things here -
1. There's a reason this hasn't happened in 8 years. If you're playing at a fast pace, you're shooting the ball well from outside. If you're not, your coach adjusts and slows the pace down. In other words, there's no reason in rushing down the court to take contested 2s.
2. The average win total of those teams - 26. Toronto is on pace for 28.
3. The only playoff team on that list - The late '90s Kings. In other words, you can play at a fast pace and shoot poorly from 3pt land........ IF you have two of the best passing big men of the last 30 years (Divac & Webber) on your team getting you layup after layup.
My closing advice to the Raptors:
I know why they won't do a Kevin O'Neill / Scott Skiles type of transformation. That type of basketball isn't (necessarily) fun to watch. But, if you're going to keep up with this pace of play, please find some three point shooters to throw on your wings. This current collection of DeRozan (10%), Weems (26%), Kleiza (32%), and Barbosa (34%) just isn't good enough.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
I've told you the good...
Now it's time for Bargnani the Bad....
Let's kick it off right away with the patented T.Jose Caldeford STAT OF THE DAY (TM)
STAT OF THE DAY
FEWEST ASSISTS PER GAME
AMONG 20 PPG SCORERS THIS SEASON
Dwight Howard 1.1
Andrea Bargnani 1.4
Jason Richardson 1.5
Michael Beasley 1.6
Kevin Love 2.1
Quick asides:
- First, can we get rid of that "Kevin Love is such a great passer" argument until he bumps up his assist totals a bit?
- Jason Richardson is the only guard on this list... He really is a chucker.
So, 1st point out of the way: Andrea isn't a very good passer.
Next:
ANDREA BARGNANI SHOT DISTRIBUTION
(courtesy 82games.com)
3% dunks/tips
16% close range
81% jump shots
So, 2nd point out of the way: Despite taking fewer threes (as mentioned in my previous post), the 7-foot Bargnani is still predominantly a jump shooter.
Next:
RAPTORS THIS SEASON
(courtesy 82games.com)
WITH BARGNANI ON THE FLOOR: 108 pts / 100 possessions
& ON THE BENCH: 111 pts / 100 possessions
WITH BARGNANI ON THE FLOOR: 114 pts allowed / 100 possessions
& ON THE BENCH: 102 pts allowed / 100 possessions
WITH BARGNANI ON THE FLOOR: Raps get 52% of avail rebounds
& ON THE BENCH: Raps get 55% of avail rebounds
In summation: Toronto's offence is 3 pts better per 100 possessions when Bargnani's on the bench; Toronto's defence is 12 pts better per 100 possessions when Bargnani's on the bench; and Toronto's rebounding is 3 percent better when Bargnani's on the bench.
Wow.
So, 3rd point out of the way: The Raptors are better offensively, defensively, and on the glass when Bargnani is on the bench (maybe those are my 3rd, 4th, & 5th points).
In another (final) summation:
1st point: Despite being the team's focal point on offence, Bargnani is not a good passer.
2nd point: Despite being a 7-footer (and having a pretty soft touch inside), Bargnani remains a jump shooter.
3rd point: Toronto is better offensively with him on the bench.
4th point: Toronto is better defensively with him on the bench.
5th point: Toronto is better on the glass with him on the bench.
That's ugly.
I have to say, these numbers are more up my alley when it comes to the stuff that I "buy" so to speak (compared to the pro-Bargnani stuff I was spewing out a few days back). So, even though I've been pretty pro-Bargnani so far this season, that probably ends tonight.
Let's kick it off right away with the patented T.Jose Caldeford STAT OF THE DAY (TM)
STAT OF THE DAY
FEWEST ASSISTS PER GAME
AMONG 20 PPG SCORERS THIS SEASON
Dwight Howard 1.1
Andrea Bargnani 1.4
Jason Richardson 1.5
Michael Beasley 1.6
Kevin Love 2.1
Quick asides:
- First, can we get rid of that "Kevin Love is such a great passer" argument until he bumps up his assist totals a bit?
- Jason Richardson is the only guard on this list... He really is a chucker.
So, 1st point out of the way: Andrea isn't a very good passer.
Next:
ANDREA BARGNANI SHOT DISTRIBUTION
(courtesy 82games.com)
3% dunks/tips
16% close range
81% jump shots
So, 2nd point out of the way: Despite taking fewer threes (as mentioned in my previous post), the 7-foot Bargnani is still predominantly a jump shooter.
Next:
RAPTORS THIS SEASON
(courtesy 82games.com)
WITH BARGNANI ON THE FLOOR: 108 pts / 100 possessions
& ON THE BENCH: 111 pts / 100 possessions
WITH BARGNANI ON THE FLOOR: 114 pts allowed / 100 possessions
& ON THE BENCH: 102 pts allowed / 100 possessions
WITH BARGNANI ON THE FLOOR: Raps get 52% of avail rebounds
& ON THE BENCH: Raps get 55% of avail rebounds
In summation: Toronto's offence is 3 pts better per 100 possessions when Bargnani's on the bench; Toronto's defence is 12 pts better per 100 possessions when Bargnani's on the bench; and Toronto's rebounding is 3 percent better when Bargnani's on the bench.
Wow.
So, 3rd point out of the way: The Raptors are better offensively, defensively, and on the glass when Bargnani is on the bench (maybe those are my 3rd, 4th, & 5th points).
In another (final) summation:
1st point: Despite being the team's focal point on offence, Bargnani is not a good passer.
2nd point: Despite being a 7-footer (and having a pretty soft touch inside), Bargnani remains a jump shooter.
3rd point: Toronto is better offensively with him on the bench.
4th point: Toronto is better defensively with him on the bench.
5th point: Toronto is better on the glass with him on the bench.
That's ugly.
I have to say, these numbers are more up my alley when it comes to the stuff that I "buy" so to speak (compared to the pro-Bargnani stuff I was spewing out a few days back). So, even though I've been pretty pro-Bargnani so far this season, that probably ends tonight.
Saturday, December 4, 2010
The toughest players in the NBA to defend...
Creates matchup problems. Shoots over smaller players, drives on bigger players. An ability to get to--and convert from--the free throw line. Can score from anywhere on the floor.
That is how I would describe players who are tough to guard, and I want to focus particularly on that last statement: Can score from anywhere on the floor.
Hoopdata.com tracks shot locations from five different ranges: At the rim; inside 10 feet; 10-15 feet; 16-23 feet; & 3pt. It's great to see that Blake Griffin leads the NBA with 4.2 FG at the rim (R. Westbrook is 2nd at 3.9!), or that Kyle Lowry is shooting 10% on long 2s this season (10%, wtf!).
Anyways, converting that statement "score from anywhere on the floor" and using it with this data, I came up with the following question:
How many players in the NBA are hitting at least one shot per game from each of the five ranges listed above ?
Here they are:
Kobe Bryant
Kevin Durant
Steve Nash
Rudy Gay
and....
Andrea Bargnani
I like seeing this, and it reaffirms something I said last season, that Bargnani is a much more natural scorer than Chris Bosh. That offence comes easier to him than it does to Bosh.
Quick aside: If you're wondering what's changed about Bargnani's game this season, how this was made possible... this evolution of his scoring... well, he's on pace to take the fewest three-pointers of his career. Even though he's still connecting at the same rate of his career pace (38%), he's still only averaging 3.1 attempts per game (down from a career-high 4.1 last season).
So, I'm comfortable saying Andrea Bargnani is one of the toughest players in the NBA to defend, and I don't think I should be laughed out of a room for saying it!
That is how I would describe players who are tough to guard, and I want to focus particularly on that last statement: Can score from anywhere on the floor.
Hoopdata.com tracks shot locations from five different ranges: At the rim; inside 10 feet; 10-15 feet; 16-23 feet; & 3pt. It's great to see that Blake Griffin leads the NBA with 4.2 FG at the rim (R. Westbrook is 2nd at 3.9!), or that Kyle Lowry is shooting 10% on long 2s this season (10%, wtf!).
Anyways, converting that statement "score from anywhere on the floor" and using it with this data, I came up with the following question:
How many players in the NBA are hitting at least one shot per game from each of the five ranges listed above ?
Here they are:
Kobe Bryant
Kevin Durant
Steve Nash
Rudy Gay
and....
Andrea Bargnani
I like seeing this, and it reaffirms something I said last season, that Bargnani is a much more natural scorer than Chris Bosh. That offence comes easier to him than it does to Bosh.
Quick aside: If you're wondering what's changed about Bargnani's game this season, how this was made possible... this evolution of his scoring... well, he's on pace to take the fewest three-pointers of his career. Even though he's still connecting at the same rate of his career pace (38%), he's still only averaging 3.1 attempts per game (down from a career-high 4.1 last season).
So, I'm comfortable saying Andrea Bargnani is one of the toughest players in the NBA to defend, and I don't think I should be laughed out of a room for saying it!
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