Based on requests from a plethora of readers (plethora = 2), I've decided to revive the blog with a new focus. It will look at all sports (mostly focusing on Toronto), but it will keep the same inspiration as before (looking at storylines in unconventional ways --- and a lot of time that will involve statistics).
First up, your first-place Toronto Blue Jays. Before looking ahead to this much-anticipated series with the Sox, let's look at this crazy offence. Seriously, where did it come from?
Things we know about this team: 27-14 record (best in AL), 3.5 game lead in the East, 4.5 games up on the next closest team in the Wild Card race (always be aware of that race as well), and Roy Halladay is pretty damn good (more on him later).
Other than those indisputable facts, everything else is sort of uncharted waters, especially when we're talking about the offence.
Consider: 8 of their top 11 players have been above average offensively this season (measured in terms of OPS+). The three below-average players: Wells, Rios, Snider. That's bass-ackwards.
(Quick aside: OPS+ (and ERA+) are two of my favourite baseball stats. They weigh OPS and ERA to the league average, and adjust for what ballpark the games are played in.)
That unexpected balance has resulted in the league's best offence in terms of runs, batting average, or OPS+.
How did it happen? Here's the three key reasons:
1. DH: Stairs (2008) vs Lind (2009): We loved Stairs for his home run derby swings, but this is no comparison. Lind has been the best DH in the AL this season.
2. 2B: Inglett (2008) vs Hill (2009): Inglett was a decent stop-gap and could slap the ball around a little bit, but Hill has been the third-best second baseman in the Majors this year (Kinsler, Utley).
3. SS: Eckstein (2008) vs Scutaro (2009): Eckstein was a grinder, Scutaro has been great. Leads the majors in walks, 3rd among MLB SS in on base percentage. Not only has he solidified the position, he's also solidified the leadoff spot for Toronto, a spot that has been in flux since Shannon Stewart left (the first time)
But the real question is: Can this offence keep it up?
The answer? It depends.
It depends on what you mean by keep it up. I think there's little to no chance they finish the season with the league's best attack. I think Scutaro and Hill are bound to come back to earth. However, Wells' and Rios' awakenings (it better come at some point) should offset those slowdowns, and I think Lind is for real.
The key thing is: I don't think this team needs a 1st place offence, it just needs an above-average offence, which I think it will be throughout the season.
PITCHING AND DEFENCE
I'll get to these two items on later dates (I've written enough already), but consider this: The Jays lead the AL in WHIP and K/BB, and are 2nd in ERA+. They're also 1st in defensive efficiency, and 2nd in fielding percentage.
I have a theory on the Jays pitching I'm going to work on over the next few days, and it centres around these facts: Six of the nine starters used by Toronto this season have been lefties, and three of their top four relievers are also southpaws.
QUICK STAT OF THE DAY
Halladay: 8-1
Bullpen: 8-4
Other Starters: 11-9
Here's a question? What's the most impressive stat? Personally, I take the rag-tag collection of other starters having a record above .500. Think about it, the other starters go .500, the bullpen finishes a few over .500, and Halladay goes 20-8 and suddenly you have a 90-win team (much easier said than done).
JAYS VS SOX - FENWAY
Tue - Tallet (4-2, 4.68) vs Wakefield (4-1, 4.03)
Wed - Cecil (2-0, 1.80) vs Penny (3-1, 6.69)
Thu - Ray (1-1, 3.60) vs Lester (2-4, 6.51)
Toronto was 9-9 vs Boston last season, including 4-5 at Fenway. The Sox luck out by avoiding Halladay.
Here's the thing, this has been a great story for the Jays. Young team surprising everyone in the Majors, it's almost been like a dream. But is this the week when it all becomes real for these young pitchers and hitters. How will Tallet or Cecil or Ray respond when the umpire is squeezing the zone with runners on early in the game? How will Lind and Hill and Snider fare in a three-game series where they face a knuckle ball pitcher, a hard-throwing big righty, and a polished lefty?
My prediction: Sox win 2 of 3.
FLASHBACK OF THE DAY
September 16th, 2002 - At 24 years of age, Brian Tallet wins his major league debut for the Cleveland Indians, throwing six shutout innings as the Indians defeated the Red Sox at Fenway Park.
Note: Exactly 0 of the batters he faced back then are still on the Red Sox today.
