Listen to enough of the chatter from the talking heads on TV, the voices on the radio, or from reading the words on all the blogs around this city, and I think it's fairly divided on who is the quote unquote "key" to the Raptors season. Here are the usual suspects:
a) Chris Bosh
b) Hedo Turkoglu
c) Jose Calderon
d) Andrea Bargnani
e) DeMar DeRozan
I believe I've listed them in order of how often they're listed as the "key."
With Bosh, the theory is he has to "take his game to another level" (which we discussed last week). Turkoglu is supposed to provide a type of wing play that's been missing in Toronto for years. Calderon is expected to return to perfect health and that should improve his lacklustre defence and bring back his ability to drive. While, DeRozan should add a healthy dose of athleticism (and aggressiveness) that this team hasn't had for years (Moon lacked in the aggressiveness dept.).
But what about Bargnani?
It seems he's been the key to the Raptors hopes for so long that he's almost been forgotten this season. That again, like Bosh, maybe Bargnani "is what he is" and people aren't really expecting any sort of leap this year. Let's look at those statements in a couple of ways:
First, what makes Bargnani so intriguing? Well, getting taken first overall in the draft tends to do that, but let's look at this numbers-wise. There's no doubt he has a unique skill set, and I think that's what makes everyone drool year after year. He and Dirk Nowitzki are the only seven-footers in NBA history to make at least one three-pointer per game over their career.
Secondly, why should we expect that he is what he is?
BARGNANI: THE BAD
- Almost one third of his field goal attempts are still three pointers (Nowitzki about 1/8)
- Defensive Rating has dropped each season
With the first bullet point, the theory is that despite some improvements on defence (namely, blocked shots, which we'll talk about later), Bargnani will always be a below-average defender. Therefore, because of those shortcomings (foul prone, no lateral movement, etc...), he'll never be able to stay on the floor long enough or become enough of a two-way player to be considered great.
The second bullet point is a common gripe with Bargnani. That in order to move to the next level, he must stop relying on the three-point shot so much.
Oh, and there's one other pretty nasty stat that tempers enthusiasm for this guy.
BARGNANI: THE UGLY
Head down to the fourth table, and look at who's second on the list.
A 7-footer with a 10.0% rebounding rate... as you can see, that's really, really bad. I mean, there are some reasons for that. He shoots threes all the time, so he stands at the three-point line, and typically, offensive rebounds don't fly out 23 feet away from the rim. Anyways, we can talk about the reasons for that number for awhile, but the point is, it's tough to be a great 7-footer when you don't rebound the basketball.
So I've laid out the reasons why people might have finally tempered their expectations with this guy, but let's also point out why Bargnani still might have another gear or two to hit.
BARGNANI: THE GOOD
- Averaged 19 points per game over the last 46 games of the season
- Defensive Rebounding Rate has improved in each of his three seasons
- Three-point attempts per minute have dropped each year
- Free throw attempts per minute have risen each year
- Block rate nearly doubled year-over-year
- Averaged 18 / 6 as a starter last season
Quickly skimming through those bullet points:
Yes, he's still a bad rebounder (see earlier note), though he's becoming a better defensive rebounder (but let's face it, he'll never be a beast on the offensive glass).
Yes, he still takes too many threes, but he's getting better.
Fewer threes has resulted in more trips to the line.
Though he's a bad defensive player, at least he's shown an interest in that end of the court.
And the last two points go hand-in-hand. After giving up on force feeding Jermaine O'Neal into the offence (the Raptors were hoping to avoid having to call their big off-season acquisition a disaster), Bargnani shone as the second option on offence. How impressive are those numbers for a post player? Only three 7-footers averaged 18 points per game last season (Nowitzki, Ming, Gasol). Lowering the threshold to 6'10 only adds six players to the list (Jefferson, Bosh, Stoudemire, Howard, Duncan, Aldridge).
Think of how unique that potential is for the Raptors, to have two of the top 10 big men scorers in the league, and that was the case for over half of the season last year.
So, that's why people should still be excited for Bargnani.
BARGNANI: THE RE-ADJUSTMENT
There are reasons why expectations should still be high, but there's also reasons why expectations should be tempered. That's why I think the one comparison that's most often made with Il Mago has to go.
The player Bargnani is most commonly compared to is Dirk Nowitzki (as I did earlier). However, it might be time to shelve those comparisons. Here's the thing with these types of things: Players are always "compared" to their absolute highest ceiling. For instance, if you added toughness, defence, work ethic, leadership, etc... to Vince Carter, then the comparisons to Michael Jordan might have held up (to a reasonable degree).
So yes, if Bargnani's decision making, work ethic, and mid-range jumper all got exponentially better, then the comparison to Nowitzki might be realistic. But let's be honest, that won't happen. Andrea Bargnani will never be an MVP candidate or an All-NBA first teamer, deal with it.
But there's a more realistic comparison that just landed in Toronto this summer.
Hedo Turkoglu and Bargnani both came over to the NBA from Europe and played their rookie seasons as 21-year olds. Both have post player size, but are more comfortable on the perimeter. (This is where it starts to differ from Nowitzki) Both are good three-point shooters and free throw shooters, but struggle with their mid-range game.
Here's the good news: After failing to meet expectations in his first few seasons, Turkoglu really started to figure out the NBA game once he hit his mid-20s. He started getting to the line more than ever, and his shooting percentages from the field also rose, resulting in career-best marks in True Shooting Percentage.
So is that a more realistic assessment of where Bargnani could be headed? Obviously, they are different players with slightly different styles, however, I think Turkoglu's current level of play (impact player on a playoff team, playing just at or below the all-star level) is probably an accurate measure of Bargnani's potential.
Similar to my previous post about Chris Bosh & Kevin Garnett, I'm not necessarily saying the development of the Raptor player will follow the same path as the player I'm choosing to compare him with. I'm only illustrating that I think we all fall victim to judging these players very quickly, especially given their age. And there are numerous examples of players who take a few years to truly hit their stride in the NBA.
It's kind of like football in terms of player development. Coming into the NBA as a swingman is like being a running back in the NFL. It's easy to just come right in, hit the hole hard and find success (see: Vince Carter; Edgerrin James). Conversely, I'd compare being a big man in basketball to being a wide receiver in the NFL. In college, these guys were bigger and stronger than the guys who were trying to cover them, so they didn't have to work on little things like footwork, body control, etc... That's probably why it's so tough to evaluate NBA bigs and NFL wideouts (see: Charles Rogers; Michael Olowokandi). Sure, there are players who enjoyed success right away (see: Tim Duncan; Randy Moss) but they were definitely exceptions as opposed to the rule.
So where does Andrea Bargnani fit in? Will he develop like a Lions wide receiver drafted in the first round, or will he season nicely like a Tim Brown?
Quick aside: This is usually where I put in a real useless sentence like "Only time will tell." or "We shall see" or "We shall watch with great interest" (I don't think I've ever actually written that one, but I digress to get back to my original digression). Anyways, it's weird that I write things like that because I hate reading an article that ends with such a neutral statement. It's like the writer is taking great pains to ensure that he's an unbiased observer. But I think I've proven my unbiasedness by the way I've presented the facts. I don't think making a judgment one way or the other at the end of that presentation should change that. So there!
Well, I happen to think the future will more closely resemble the latter scenario, and I'll make a prediction right now (though admittedly, it can't be proven correct or incorrect for quite some time): Andrea Bargnani will average 20 points per game in a season before his 27th birthday. Maybe that was obvious to most people (it certainly wasn't to me before I really delved into his numbers), but so be it.
Will he make me look like a genius or a fool?
Only time will tell.
