Ball v.1.30

Let me start today's entry with an admission: Not for one second did I think the Raptors brass would take Hedo Turkoglu out of the starting lineup. I'm upset that they did, if only because it rendered so much of my work from the last few days useless!

But there's always something to analyze.

Let's start off with a bit of small stuff, let's call them our mini-stats of the day:

• I won't give up on my stance that Marco Belinelli deserves more minutes. Over Toronto's last 10 games, the team has been outscored by 61 points overall. However, one player managed to stay in the positive over those 10 games. Belinelli was a +20 over that time.
• Over that same time frame, Andrea Bargnani was a team-worst -66, and DeMar DeRozan was a -60

Now let's move on to a bit of technical mumbo-jumbo:

After laying out the Turkoglu data crunching last week, I had a reader ask if it would be possible to consider the defensive side of the ball as well. Let's consider this for a second: If I tell you that a particular 5-man unit has outscored their opposition by 50 points this season, that's really ALL you need to know. The score encapsulates everything in basketball. It takes into account offence and defence. It takes into account ball movement, and turnovers, and shooting, and rebounding... everything. That's why it's a great stat (especially when you're talking about 5-man units). I agree with people who say plus/minus is a limited stat... it only helps explain part of the picture when you're talking about individual players. But when you're talking about 5-man units, I think it's a lot tougher argument to make.

THE NEW STARTING LINEUP

Finally, let's get to the meat of today's post. It won't take too long to analyze, but I want to look at a couple angles:

1. How has this lineup fared throughout the season?

2. How has this lineup fared with Jack as the point guard?

3. Was this move made with an eye towards the post-season?

Answers:

1. I'm so happy. This is the first personnel/coaching decision that's been made all season long that seems to be in concert with the numbers. Well, the first one that I haven't been screaming about making for 40 games (insert note about DeRozan or Jack here).

The Raptors have used 10 unique lineups for at least 60 minutes this season. Of those lineups, this current starting lineup of Calderon, Wright, Weems, Bosh, & Bargnani has been the 2nd best. They are a +12 so far this season.

2. I'm even happier. I'm over the moon. This lineup has performed well with either point guard at the helm.

As I said, the Raptors have used 10 unique lineups for at least 60 minutes this season and the current starting lineup has been the 2nd best among those 10. The best lineup among those 10 is Jarrett Jack playing with the other four starters!

They've outscored their opposition by 19 points in just 62 minutes of court time.

Before I get to my quick little third question, I want to make a point about what these numbers should tell Jay Triano. Don't put Calderon and Jack on the floor together at the end of close games. These numbers should make it easy for the Raptors. The starting unit works well with either of those guys at the helm, just pick one--whomever you think is having a good game--and finish the game with them. Don't ever say, "I can't pick between them, so let's just throw both of them out there." (I'm convinced this is what happens in Triano's head).

3. I told you this would be quick. The current starting lineup has not played a single minute against the Cleveland Cavaliers this season.

Ball v.1.29

Great message left on Mr. Grange's game recap today:

"I think my enjoyment of the Raptors improves when I concentrate on the game and not on the dollar values in the contract of individual players. I have no idea how much money Diana Krall makes every time I attend a concert - and that works just fine for me. I am trying to imagine a review in the Globe of a singer's performance that is punctuated by the amount of money they were paid to show up. Just doesn't happen, does it?" - Posted by Roarque

Just a simple, but absolutely perfect point made by this Roarque. This comes back to the post I wrote comparing Larry Murphy and Hedo Turkoglu, but for some reason, this city is obsessed with the contracts of the professional athletes who work here.

Is it because we live in the most superficial city in Canada? Is it because so many of us work in the finance industry? Does it come back to Canada's widely-panned inferiority complex? I don't have answers to those questions. All I know is that I'm going to watch games the way Roarque does. It sounds much more relaxing.

STAT OF THE DAY

Toronto's win over Charlotte on Monday night was just their 2nd win over a team with a winning record since January 28th! Two-plus months and 27 games played! They are 2-11 against +.500 teams during that time, and 10-4 against sub-.500 teams. I've said it before and I'll say it again - This team has had a peachy schedule for awhile (note: first time I've ever used "peachy" in a sentence).

BREAK IT DOWN

Toronto has 9 games remaining, and owns the tiebreakers with both Chicago and Charlotte. In my opinion, getting out of the 8th seed is vital to at least having a chance of an entertaining first round. I would peg Toronto's chances of pushing a series to at least 6 games vs Cleveland at about 8.4% (you appreciate the .4, don't you?). I think that probably jumps to about 18.6% if the opponent is Orlando. So what are their chances of moving up to 7th? Of even making the playoffs?

6. Mia 40-34 - 8 games remaining (3 home / 5 away); 0 vs. playoff contending teams

They're only 1.5 games up on Charlotte but this race is essentially over. Every single team Miami faces to close out the season is already out of the playoff picture. There is no reason for the Heat to not finish up on a 6-2 run.

7. Cha 38-35 - 9 games remaining (5 home / 4 away); 5 vs. playoff contending teams

The interesting part of Charlotte's schedule is that they have 2 games remaining against the Bulls--one this Saturday, and their final game of the season on April 14th. If you're a Raptors fan, who do you want to win on Saturday? I have to say, I don't think they have the easiest schedule, and I think they're scuffling a bit. I think they finish on a 4-5 run, leaving them with a 42-40 record.

8. Tor 36-37 - 9 games remaining (5 home / 4 away); 4 vs. playoff contending teams

Couple caveats to throw out about Toronto's schedule: Cleveland is obviously a tough opponent (they play next Tuesday), but by the time the Cavs and Raptors meet, Cleveland might have already locked up top spot in the East. So that could mean an unexpected win for Toronto.

Next, they play Chicago on April 11th (3rd last game of the season). If they have a 3-game lead in the standings on the Bulls by that time, then the Bulls would have nothing to play for. I'm not saying it's likely, but that could be another game where it looks like a toughie, but could be an easy and unexpected win.

Finally, I think most people would look at Toronto's remaining schedule and say the Cle, Bos, Atl stretch is the most important part, but I tend to take an opposite view (naturally). I think this next week (Wed vs Clippers, Sat at 76ers, Sun vs Warriors) is THE time to take care of business. Toronto has handled weak competition well all season long and if they can do it again, they could potentially deliver a knockout blow to the Bulls.

8. Chi 35-38 - 9 games remaining (5 home / 4 away); 7 vs. playoff contending teams

They're one game behind Toronto in the standings, but that's essentially a two game lead because the Raptors own the tiebreaker.

Here's why I think the next five days or so are pivotal: If Toronto goes 3-0 against that weak competition, and Chicago goes 1-2 against Phx, Wsh, Cha (not unlikely). That would give the Raptors a three game lead on the Bulls with six to play, leaving their "magic number" to clinch a playoff spot at 3 ("magic number" - any combination of Toronto wins or Chicago losses).

Then, with the Bulls looking at games against Milwaukee and Cleveland, I think you could make them fold the tents up a bit early.

CONCLUSION

I think it's unlikely Toronto catches Charlotte in the standings (not groundbreaking I know). But you should get a good sense of whether they can in the next week as they need a 3-0 week to have any shot.

Ball v.1.28

So, if you're a regular reader of this blog, then you should have learned a few things about this Raptors season. You know the yanking of DeMar DeRozan out of the starting lineup came about two months too late. You know the yanking of Jarrett Jack out of the starting lineup came about a month too late. And you also know Jack and Jose Calderon should never (!) be on the floor together.

Sadly, Jay Triano doesn't read this blog.

Sunday vs Miami, the Raptors are on the verge of a key win. Leading by as much as 17 points (with Jack and Calderon never seeing the floor together), Triano sends Jack into the game to replace Sonny Weems with just under 3 minutes to play.

My reaction (think dramatic movie slow motion): "Noooooooooo!"

I've talked about this before. Let's jump all the way back to December 4th, 2009: "Abandon the idea that Jack is a combo-guard - He is a +3 as a point guard, and a -48 as a shooting guard. It doesn't get any simpler than that. The Calderon-Jack backcourt has been about as successful as the Caldeford pairing of years past."

That was nearly four months ago!

Anyways, so what happened next in the Miami game, to me, was no surprise. The Heat went on a 7-0 run to close out the game. Another failure for the Raptors.

The frustrating part about the conclusion of the game (and of the previous one against Denver) was that the disappointing endings masked two impressive games for Toronto. There were many positives to take from the two-game stretch, but perhaps none moreso than the improved 3rd quarter play. Taking DeRozan out of the starting lineup has helped coming out of halftime - Toronto outscored their two opponents by a combined 17 points in the two 3rd quarters.

However, the one glaring shortcoming in each of the two games was the inability to get a good shot late in the game. This is where Hedo Turkoglu is usually counted upon, and his absence was very noticeable. Say what you want about his "stomach virus," but this team needs him late in close games.

Ball v.1.27

I was reading Doug Smith's pre game chat over at thestar.com, and came across this:

Comment from Colin from Halifax: Did you see the Caldeford post today? Any thoughts?

This is it! Caldeford has gone big time... readers from Halifax, a mention on Doug Smith's pre-game chat... the fame, the jobs, the money, the women... it's all gonna happen! Call up Spice Route, book some tables, order the bottles... we're gonna make it rain tonight! Finally!!!

Reply from Doug: I have no idea what you're talking about and won't go looking for it.

Sorry, where was I?

Ball v.1.26

If there's one thing Toronto Raptor fans can agree on, it's this: They're stuck with Hedo Turkoglu. He's not going anywhere. Jay Triano isn't taking him out of the starting lineup. You're either going to win or lose with him.

Given that scenario, I've decided to devote my time and this space to finding a way to maximize the Raptors performance. Here's what I've realized after looking at the data: I knew there was a reason I liked Marco Belinelli!

I started my data mining over at basketballvalue.com to look at the most frequently used lineups that included Turkoglu. See if you notice a pattern when I list the shooting guard for each of those lineups (what you'll see in brackets is whether the lineup has a positive or negative plus/minus)

1. DeRozan (negative)

2. DeRozan (negative)

3. Jack (negative)

4. Weems (positive)

5. DeRozan (negative)

6. Wright (positive)

7. Belinelli (positive)

8. Belinelli (positive)

9. Belinelli (positive)

10. DeRozan (negative)

11. Belinelli (positive)

12. Wright (positive)

13. Belinelli (positive)

14. Weems (positive)

15. DeRozan (negative)

Let's summarize:

• DeRozan appears 5 times (all negative)
• Jack appears once, but in the third most used lineup (negative)
• Sonny Weems and Antoine Wright both appear twice (all positive)
• Marco Belinelli appears 5 times (all positive)

Before you say to yourself "well, DeRozan and Belinelli both appear five times, that's good..." consider the weighting of Turkoglu's floor time this season: (quick aside: All of you owe me for this... I did some serious Microsoft Excelling to figure this out)

Here is how Turkoglu's floor time has been split up in terms of shooting guards playing alongside him:

DeRozan 45%

Belinelli 16%

Weems 12%

Wright 12%

Jack 10%

(that only adds up to 95%, but the other 5% Turkoglu was playing as a Power Forward)

Before you build an opinion on the above list, let's show the net plus/minus for these guys playing alongside Turkoglu (brackets shows per 48 min +/-)

DeRozan -150 (-8.0)

Belinelli 62 (+9.0)

Weems -26 (-5.0)

Wright 3 (+0.6)

Jack -11 (-2.6)

I think there are two interesting questions to consider after looking at those numbers:

First, how does Turkoglu look if him and DeRozan never play together: Turkoglu would be a +31 overall, +3.6 per 48 minutes. Unfortunately, 45% of Turkoglu's floor time comes with DeRozan on the floor.

Secondly, how good would Turkoglu look if all of his court time came with Belinelli on the floor: Turkoglu would be a +379 overall, +9.0 per 48 minutes. Unfortunately, only 16% of Turkoglu's floor time comes with Belinelli on the floor.

ANALYSIS

There are a few nearly irrefutable truths I'm taking from this analysis:

• Since Turkoglu starting at the small forward spot is a given, it is imperative--given this data--that DeMar DeRozan be removed from the starting lineup immediately
• Weems & Turkoglu don't seem to play well together on the wings (-5 per 48), so all of Weems' minutes should come only as a substitute for Turkoglu
• This is just another piece of evidence that Jarrett Jack should never play at the 2
• Belinelli or Wright should be starting at the 2--with the other being the main backup at shooting guard. DeRozan would get minutes where specific situations specifically called for him

Given those conclusions, the breakdown of minutes at shooting guard alongside Turkoglu would look something like this:

Wright 45%

Belinelli 45%

DeRozan 10%

Here's an interesting hypothetical: Based on their performance alongside Turkoglu all season, what would the Turk's plus/minus look like if the above breakdown were used since October?

He would be a +11 with Wright, a +170 with Belinelli, and a -33 with DeRozan, giving him a net plus/minus of +148.

Real World Turkoglu: -119

Hypothetical Caldeford world Turkoglu: +148

Net Difference (the Caldeford effect): +267

So, you know, no big deal, my analysis is worth about 267 points to the Raptors (only about 3.25 points per game). What is that worth in today's NBA? $5 mill?

I'll wait for my check to show up in the mail.

DISCUSSION

I believe this is the most important issue for the Raptors going forward. As mentioned at the outset, the Raptors are going to win or lose with Turkoglu as their small forward, so it behooves them (don't know the last time I used "behoove" in a sentence) to find effective 5-man combinations that include him.

So ultimately, if the Raptors continue to throw out combinations they should know aren't effective, then there's nothing you can say other than Turkoglu's performance has been a failure of coaching and management. There are combinations (Belinelli, Wright) where Turkoglu has proven to be effective, and yet they are only being used sparingly (29% of the time). Conversely, there are combinations where Turkoglu has proven to be ineffective (with DeRozan or Weems), and yet, those combinations are still used more than half of the time. How can that not be considered a failure of coaching?

One other question to consider is this: Why? Why is Turkoglu effective with Wright & Belinelli, and not Weems and DeRozan? Here's one easy possible answer:

3PT FG / 3PT %

Wright & Belinelli: 102 / 36%

Weems & DeRozan: 5 / 18%

Here's another possible answer:

ASSISTS PER 36 MINUTES

Wright & Belinelli: 4.9

Weems & DeRozan: 3.8

That is telling because neither Wright or Belinelli are even considered playmakers, and yet they still have a noticeable edge in assists. I bring the assists up along with the three-pointers because I think there's an obvious difference between the two pairs. Wright & Belinelli have relatively complete games offensively. They can put the ball on the floor, they can make a pass that leads to a bucket... they have relatively high basketball IQs. Weems & DeRozan have very limited games offensively. They can take an open 15-footer, but they don't really understand how to work within an offence, they have low basketball IQs. They get by on athletic ability.

If you look at Turkoglu's last couple seasons in Orlando, you'd see that he was most (and very) effective when Keith Bogans was on the floor as the shooting guard. Bogans is like a Belinelli or Wright... he can spread the floor (with his shooting), and he has a high basketball IQ... he was known for making little plays to help the offence.

Anyways, as I said, I believe this data shows there are pieces available on this roster to make the team and Turkoglu effective. It's just a matter of whether management and coaching can figure it out.

Ball v.1.25 - Playing the Expectations Game

One day, a one-dimensional player came to Toronto as a high-priced acquistion saddled with big expectations. This player came from one of the best teams in the league, and was riding high following an outstanding playoff performance.

I'm speaking, of course, about Larry Murphy.

Mr. Murphy was an offensive minded defenceman who was traded to the Leafs in 1995 in exchange for young blueliner Dmitri Mironov and a 2nd round pick.

Despite nearly identical production to the year before in Pittsburgh (0.74 points per game in 94-95 compared to 0.79 points per game in 95-96), Murphy was booed mercilessly in Toronto. He was quickly run out of town and was traded to Detroit for future considerations just a year later.

I bring this up for two reasons.

1. I attended the disaster that was the Oklahoma City game. I heard the boos rain down on Hedo Turkoglu, and I heard the (mostly uneducated) hecklers focus their taunts on Toronto's big off-season acquisition.

These fans are booing Turkoglu for the same reason Toronto fans booed Murphy 15 years ago: Totally unrealistic expectations.

I have no idea whether this is a problem unique to Toronto or if it's a problem that afflicts all sports towns. But fans in this city always become totally unrealistic about high-priced talent. Let me try to explain:

If Player A has performed at level X for a number of seasons, and he comes to Toronto at the age of 28 or 30 or 32, let me tell you something... that player isn't getting any better. Level X is the BEST you can hope for for that player, and chances are you will get something much lower than level X.

What is difficult to accept for most of the paying public is that in professional sports, you have to overpay to acquire veteran talent. Free agency ensures this. The public doesn't understand this.

Before I move on to reason #2, let's hammer away at the one key area where I know people disagree with me. "But Turkoglu has been soooooo bad Chris, you've said it yourself!" Ya, but how much different has this season been for Turkoglu compared to last?

• He shot 41% from the field last season; shooting 41% this season
• He shot 36% from three-point last season; shooting 38% this season
• He took 5.4 3s per 40 mins last season; taking 5.1 per 40 mins this season
• Last season, his rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks added up to 12.3 per 40 mins
• This season, his rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks add up to 12.3 per 40 mins

I can't emphasize this strongly enough. I know how frustrated Raptor fans are with Hedo Turkoglu, but he's giving you exactly what you saw from him last season. And I know that most of you were happy when he signed on the dotted line.

Which brings me to my 2nd point: After Toronto fans patted themselves on the back for running Larry Murphy out of town, a funny thing happened... he played amazingly well for two Stanley Cup winning teams in Detroit. In fact, check this out, it's my stat of the day (and it's not even basketball... bonus points because I still found a way to incorporate plus/minus)

NHL LEADERS

PLAYOFF PLUS/MINUS - 1997 & 1998

Larry Murphy +28

Nicklas Lidstrom +24

Martin Lapointe +14

Steve Yzerman +13

Brendan Shanahan +13

Igor Larionov +13

(of note: Murphy (26) and Lidstrom (27) had nearly identical point totals as well)

So all of a sudden, outside of the hotbed of Toronto, Larry Murphy suddenly isn't a stiff who can't play hockey. He arguably performs equally with the best defenceman of that era (Lidstrom) in helping the Wings win two Cups.

Remember this when Toronto gives away Turkoglu for 10 cents on the dollar at the 2011 trade deadline.

Ball v.1.24 - Looking back

About two weeks ago, I attempted to forecast into the not-too-distant future to see how the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff race would play out. I looked at each team's schedule, injuries, and most importantly, their recent level of play, to throw out some rough hypotheses on how things would stand following this past weekend.

Quick snarky note: If you want to take a look at the post, just scroll down a couple weeks back to the post that starts with "Ball."

Anyways, I'm not posting this to gloat (well, I am, but I digress)... I'm actually just trying to show that if you pay attention to what's actually happening with each NBA team (and don't go by what you read or what gets hyped up on ESPN and ABC), then you can get a pretty good sense for what's going to happen:

Milwaukee: I wrote "expect a 3-2 record minimum" - They went 4-1

Miami: I wrote "Expect 4-1... at worst 3-2" - They went 3-2

Charlotte: I wrote "Expect a 2-4 record... maybe 3-3" - They went 3-3

Toronto: I wrote "Expect a 2-3 record" - They went 2-3

Chicago: I wrote "Expect 2-4 at best, but I have a feeling it might be 1-5" - They went 1-5

That is all.

Ball v.1.23 - More Crunch Time Analysis

Quick primer: The other day, we took a look at 82games.com's Crunch Time numbers. They track statistics when there's less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter or overtime in a game where the point differential is 5 points or less. We looked at some high level stuff the other day (i.e. LeBron James is the best player in the NBA... very groundbreaking). Today, we'll dig a bit deeper.

Stat of the Day: Want evidence that the NBA is a perimeter-based game? Only 1 of the top 30 players in terms of clutch FGA is either a power forward or a centre (Dirk Nowitzki).

Other quick highlights:

• Dwyane Wade has struggled in crunch time this year. He's a -16 per 48 minutes, is shooting just 32% from the field, and actually scores less often in crunch time than he does throughout the entire course of a game (more on this later)
• Minnesota's Jonny Flynn has made 13 buckets in crunch time this season, not one of them has been assisted. Other players with less than 10% of their crunch time FGs assisted: Brandon Roy (6%), and Gilbert Arenas (7%)
• Andrea Bargnani has 11 blocks in 103 crunch time minutes. I'm speechless.

BLOCKS PER 48 MINUTES

CRUNCH TIME

1. Brandon Haywood (the WSH version) 5.2
2. Andrea Bargnani 5.1
3. Andray Blatche 4.9
4. Kendrick Perkins 4.0
5. Andrew Bogut 3.9
6. Tim Duncan 3.8

• Speaking of Tim Duncan, he can still ratchet it up when he wants to: 22 pts, 21 reb, 4 ast, 4 blk per 48 minutes in crunch time

Finally, I mentioned earlier that Wade actually scores less in crunch time than during the course of an actual game. I came across this when I did a little project for you guys. It's called the Crunch Time Multiplier (or as I like to call it, the Sam Cassell Elephant Balls Dance Ratio).

I took the pts per 48 mins data from 82games.com, and put it alongside the basic pts per 48 mins data for the entire season. Divide column A by column B, and you get a good sense for who ratchets up their production when all the chips are down (the Sam Cassells of the world), and who shies away from the big moments (the Patrick Ewings).

Quick disclaimer: This doesn't include everyone in the NBA. 82games showed only the players who had a minimum of 50 minutes in crunch time.

SAM CASSELL LEADERS

1. Louis Williams 1.93
2. Raymond Felton 1.83
3. Jared Jeffries 1.79
4. LeBron James 1.78
5. Steve Nash 1.75
6. Antoine Wright 1.72

I know what you're thinking. What the hell is LeBron James doing on that list? (Sarcasm never works in writing)

Anyways, couple things:

• First, the degree of difficulty in reaching the top of this list when you're already averaging 37 pts per 48 minutes is quite high, so James' 1.78 is probably the best mark in the NBA.
• Still, my hat's off to Louis Williams, check out his crunch time percentages: 58% FG, 47% 3pt
• That being said, scoring a bunch of points doesn't guarantee effectiveness: Williams is a -11 per 48 minutes of crunch time (1 of only 2 players in the top 10 Sam Cassells to have a minus)
• Finally, Antoine Wright... I won't give up on this, he must become the starter at the 2 for the Raptors

PATRICK EWING LEADERS

(min 20 pts per 48 mins overall)

1. Troy Murphy 0.45
2. Elton Brand 0.49
3. Luis Scola 0.51
4. Charlie Villanueva 0.52
5. Brook Lopez 0.55
6. Marcus Thornton 0.58
7. Andrew Bynum 0.59
8. Dwight Howard 0.61

Notes:

• I put the minimum requirement on this one because the guys at the bottom of the list initially provided no real value (Do you care that Juwan Howard scores only 4 pts per 48 in crunch time as opposed to 12 pts per 48 in regular? Didn't think so)
• Common denominators: They're nearly exclusively post players, and they nearly exclusively lack the ability to create their own shot
• As I mentioned in an earlier post, "Dwight Howard 0.61" is why the Magic went out to get Vince Carter. And it's working, Howard is a +17 per 48 minutes in crunch time

ANALYSIS

I'm not going to do this (I do have some semblance of a life to uphold), but I bet you'd find a pretty strong correlation between height and this crunch time multiplier. In other words, the majority of the players who fall on the Patrick Ewing side of the scale (multiplier <>1.00) tend to be ball handlers.

This isn't necessarily shocking. I think most people realize that the NBA turns into a "let's spread out and watch this guy drive the lane" in the closing minutes. It's not necessarily beautiful basketball, but it is what it is.

That being said, I'm interested in the players who defy those generalizations.

What is it about Erick Dampier that makes him jump from 13 to 19 pts per 48 minutes in crunch time (1.48 multiplier)?

Conversely, how in the world does Dwyane Wade's scoring decrease when the game is on the line (from 36 to 29 pts per 48)?

Interestingly enough (or not), I think Dampier and Wade's situations are related. Jason Kidd's basketball IQ is off the charts. This is not news. He knows teams will overplay on Jason Terry and Dirk Nowitzki when the game is on the line, so he probably finds Erick Dampier for easy looks, which the veteran (key word there) Dampier converts.

I think Dwyane Wade's basketball IQ is at the same level as Kidd's (which other people might not agree with). Ever since his days at Marquette, you could tell he had a gift for seeing the floor, and making the right decisions with the ball. When you surrounded him with veterans in 2006 (Payton, Walker, Posey, O'Neal... i.e. Dampier types), you saw the results. He was perhaps the most clutch player in the NBA.

This season, surrounded with players who don't necessarily share the same basketball IQ (Chalmers, Beasley, Richardson), his scoring is down in crunch time and he's a -16.

So, as I said, I think it comes down to basketball IQ. In Dallas, Erick Dampier, Jason Kidd, and company have it, while Dwyane Wade's supporting cast in Miami definitely doesn't.

FYI: RAPTOR CRUNCH TIME MULTIPLIERS

Antoine Wright 1.72

Hedo Turkoglu 1.34

Jarrett Jack 1.11

Andrea Bargnani 1.08

Chris Bosh 1.02

Jose Calderon 0.81

Ball v.1.22 - Lineup Analysis

Question from regular reader Sivart: "I am sure it has been asked before, but is there anyway a lineup with Calderon, Hedo, and Bargnani can even be an average defensive team?"

First of all, great question, and thanks for the idea for content!

To answer your question directly, the best defensive lineup that includes those three players is Calderon-Belinelli-Turkoglu-Bosh-Bargnani, who allow 102 points per 100 possessions (min. 20 minutes played). So yes, at their very best, they can be an average defensive lineup (for 29 minutes or so).

But this leads me to another question, if we looked at the best and worst Raptor defensive lineups, would any trends reveal themselves?

(Quick aside: After watching more NBA basketball in the past two years than I have in my entire life, I've come to the conclusion that defence is everything. The Lakers are the best team in the West because of defence. The Cavs, Magic, Celts, and Hawks are top 4 in the East because of defence. Charlotte became a team when Larry Brown finally taught them to defend. Phoenix is an also ran because they don't defend. It just goes on and on and on, even on an individual level. I'll take Andrew Bogut over Andrea Bargnani any day of the week even though Bargnani is exponentially more talented offensively. Anyways, this has turned into a longer aside than I thought, but long story short, I'm going to focus moreso on defence from now on because I think it's the thing that is least understood about basketball from a fan's point of view)

Disclaimer: The order of these isn't all that important (because of sample sizes, you're going to get big variances in the numbers). What is important is if you see certain people (or don't see certain people) very often.

Another disclaimer: If you play 40 minutes a night, you're going to show up in most lineups regardless (So, this practice doesn't reveal much about Chris Bosh... well it can, but we'll get to that).

One more disclaimer: Reggie Evans hasn't played enough to show up in these lineups (and it might not matter because Jay Triano doesn't care to play him lately), but the early numbers show Evans has been one of Toronto's best defenders. Sure, him and Amir Johnson do much of the same thing, but maybe they should both get legitimate minutes at the expense of Andrea Bargnani. More on this later.

TORONTO'S WORST DEFENSIVE LINEUPS

Calderon-Belinelli-Wright-Johnson-Bargnani 155

Calderon-DeRozan-Wright-Bosh-Bargnani 144

Calderon-Jack-Wright-Bosh-Bargnani 140

Jack-DeRozan-Turkoglu-Bargnani-Nesterovic 130

Calderon-Jack-Turkoglu-Bosh-Bargnani 126

Jack-Belinelli-Weems-Bosh-Bargnani 123

Calderon-Wright-Turkoglu-Bosh-Bargnani 122

Jack-DeRozan-Turkoglu-Johnson-Bargnani 117

Jack-Belinelli-Turkoglu-Bosh-Bargnani 116

Jack-DeRozan-Turkoglu-Bosh-Bargnani 116

Before we do some analysis, let's look at the best defensive lineups

TORONTO'S BEST DEFENSIVE LINEUPS

Banks-Belinelli-Turkoglu-Johnson-Bosh 66

Jack-DeRozan-Weems-Johnson-Bargnani 67

Calderon-Jack-Wright-Johnson-Bosh 71

Calderon-Wright-Turkoglu-Johnson-Bosh 83

Calderon-Belinelli-Weems-Johnson-Bosh 86

Jack-DeRozan-Turkoglu-Bosh-Nesterovic 94

Jack-Wright-Weems-Bosh-Bargnani 95

Calderon-Belinelli-Wright-Johnson-Bosh 97

Jack-DeRozan-Wright-Johnson-Bargnani 98

Calderon-Wright-Weems-Johnson-Bosh 99

ANALYSIS

First of all, can we all stop saying that Jarrett Jack is this wonderful defensive point guard compared to the atrocious Jose Calderon. Perception isn't always reality. Jack appears among the best lineups 5 times, and the worst lineups 7 times. Calderon appears 5 times in the best lineups, and 5 times in the worst lineups.

If Calderon truly was an awful defender, and Jack truly was better, then you'd see different best/worst ratios for those players.

In fact, I like the idea of the best/worst ratio (a ratio of how often someone appears among the top 10 defensive lineups compared to the worst)... let's take a look:

Johnson 8 / 2

Bosh 8 / 7

Wright 6 / 4

Calderon 5 / 5

Jack 5 / 7

Weems 4 / 1

Belinelli 3 / 3

DeRozan 3 / 4

Turkoglu 3 / 5

Bargnani 3 / 10

I'll take three key results from this analysis:

• Amir Johnson, Chris Bosh, Antoine Wright, and Sonny Weems are likely Toronto's best defenders
• Hedo Turkoglu and (unquestionably) Andrea Bargnani are likely Toronto's worst defenders
• Johnson & Bosh are the frontcourt all five times Calderon appears in the best 10... while Wright appears with Calderon four times... in other words, put Calderon with the right people on the floor, and there's no problem defensively. Put him with the wrong people (i.e. Turkoglu and/or Bargnani, as Sivart correctly pointed out earlier, and you've got trouble)

Ball v.1.21 - Crunch Time Stats

82games.com has finally released its sortable crunch time statistics. A quick primer: They accumulate per minute statistics for any game with less than 5 minutes left during a 4th quarter or overtime where the point differential is 5 points or less.

Here are the league-wide highlights:

• LeBron's line is a highlight unto itself: 65 pts, 17 reb, 7 ast, 2 blk, 3 stl... and 26 free throw attempts per 48 minutes. The next closest point total in the NBA is Kobe (50), the next closest free throw total is Carmelo (20)
• This is why Orlando got Vince Carter: 41 pts (7th in NBA) and +31 (3rd in NBA) per 48 minutes
• This is why Dallas got Jason Kidd: He averages a triple double in crunch time! 13 pts, 11 reb, 10 ast, 48% 3PT, +26 per 48 minutes
• As impressive as the Kidd line is, it's not that surprising. You almost expect that kind of line from him. Here's a line that is surprising: 26 pts, 10 reb, 9 ast, 4 stl, 2 blk, +18 per 48 minutes. Well it's surprising because of the name in front of the line. Who do you think put it up? My first guesses would have been: Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo, Deron Williams, or Derrick Rose... Wrong on all counts. The answer is: Baron Davis. Apparently, he hasn't been mailing it in all year

Here are the Raptor highlights:

• Antoine Wright has not missed a free throw in crunch time. He's one of many impressive clutch free throw shooters on the team - Bosh (89%), Bargnani (87%), Jack (86%), Turkoglu (86%), and Calderon (80%)
• Jack does a great job getting to the line (15.5 FT - 12th in NBA), but he should be focusing even more on getting to the rim. Why? He's shooting 11% from three-point land. 11%.
• Raps coaches, broadcasters, and writers always say that despite Turkoglu's overall performance, his value is what he brings to the team in crunch time... do the numbers back them up? 24 pts, 8 reb, 2 ast, 37% FG, 26% 3PT, +17... my analysis: He's producing in terms of putting up points and getting to the line, but the assist total is a bit depressing. What happened to the vaunted pick & roll with Turkoglu and Bosh, or the pick & pop with Turkoglu and Bargnani that was talked about so much in the off-season?

Ball v.1.20

Jay Triano's favourite crunch time lineup seems to be the one with his two point guards on the floor as his backcourt. He has said he likes having three ball handlers on the floor.

I've written before about how bad the Raptors are with Jack and Calderon as the backcourt. Here is another way of putting it / showing it:

That lineup (Calderon-Jack-Turkoglu-Bosh-Bargnani) is the worst defensive lineup in the NBA among units that have played at least 100 minutes together. They allow 126.1 points per 100 possessions.

Having a poor defensive lineup is one thing, relying on it (time and time again) in crunch time is another. It's just one of the reasons why I'm starting to wonder if Jay Triano is a legitimate NBA coach.

Ball v.1.19

A reader pointed out that Doug Smith is suggesting in his blog that Calderon and Wright might enter the starting lineup on Friday in place of Jarrett Jack and DeMar DeRozan.

For those of you that have seen Alice in Wonderland, I'm doing the dance that Johnny Depp does at the end of the movie right now (that's how happy I am).

For those of you who come here in search of valid statistical notes instead of pointless pop culture drivel, I'll have you know that the Raps are +69 this season with Calderon & Wright as their backcourt.

That is all.

Ball v.1.18

DeRozan game-worst -27 last night... it's all I'm going to say on the topic. I've already made my point. Anyone who watches basketball knows I'm right (except for maybe Bryan Colangelo and Jay Triano).

Anyways, about 10 days ago, I wrote the Raptors would finish the season with a 41-41 or 40-42 record. Clearly, nothing has happened to change that prediction.

But here's the question: Are these guys going to miss the playoffs entirely? Here's the bottom half of the Eastern Conference playoff race:

5. Mil 34-29

6. Tor 32-31

6. Cha 32-31

6. Mia 33-32

---

9. Chi 31-32

FROM NOW THRU NEXT WEEKEND...

Mil: Uta, Ind, @Lac, @Sac, @Den

Tor: @GS, @Por, Atl, Okc, @NJ

Cha: Lac, @Orl, @Ind, Okc, @Atl, @Mia

Mia: Chi, Phi, SA, Orl, Cha

Chi: @Orl, @Mia, @Mem, @Dal, Cle, @Phi

ANALYSIS

Mil: Peaking at the right time (9-1 in last 10); facing only two winning teams and have just one back-to-back; their core is healthy; tightly defined 9-man rotation; should expect a 3-2 record minimum

Tor: Playing poor basketball (3-7 in last 10); facing three winning teams, and playing two back-to-backs (a potential disaster NJ game on 2nd end of a back-to-back looms large); Chris Bosh working himself back to 100% health; can't decide on a tight rotation (11 players saw floor vs LA); should expect a 2-3 record, but 3-2 (or 1-4) is possible

Cha: The best defensive team in the league - only one of their last 7 opponents has scored more than 90 pts; Tough stretch of basketball - 6 games, 4 winning teams, 2 back-to-backs; Fully healthy; My favourite 8-man rotation in the NBA (Felton/Augustin at PG, Jackson, Wallace, Diaw on the perimeter, Tyrus Thomas, Chandler, and Ratliff inside... now that team can defend!); despite the fact they're playing well, expect a 2-4 record during this stretch (maybe 3-3)

Mia: Talent-wise, has the best player but the worst roster among these teams; Easily the best schedule - 5 home games, 0 back-to-backs; 2 pivotal games with Cha and Chi; Beasley left last night's game with an injury; Expect 4-1 (at worst, 3-2)

Chi: Shouldn't even be in this position, but trading of Salmons, and injuries have ruined their depth; Lost 5 straight games and it could get worse; Easily the toughest schedule in the group - 5 road games, 3 unique sets of back-to-backs (incl. games at Mia and at Dal on the back halves of those back-to-backs); J. Noah is out indefinitely, L. Deng got hurt last night and won't play tonight vs Orl, T. Gibson might not play tonight, B. Miller is playing hurt... meaning essentially it's Derrick Rose and a bunch of sluff on the floor (with apologies to K. Hinrich); Expect 2-4 at best, but I have a feeling it might be 1-5

CALDEFORD'S PROJECTED STANDINGS AS OF NEXT SUNDAY

5. Mil 37-31

6. Mia 37-33

7. Tor 34-34

8. Cha 34-35

-----

9. Chi 32-37

Keep in mind, Toronto plays Mia, Cha, and Chi before the end of the season, games that could mean huge things in the standings.

I guess all I'm saying after looking at the respective situations of each team is this: Chicago is messed up and picked the wrong time to have key injuries (and to trade away one of your top six players). I really can't see them sticking in this (unless D. Rose turns into C. Paul, which he does from time to time). So, on the one hand, Toronto is probably assured of a playoff spot.

On the other hand, Milwaukee and Charlotte are playing much, much better than Toronto, and should likely finish ahead of them in the standings. So, as long as you're excited about a first-round exit at the hands of Cleveland or Orlando, then yes, you should be excited that the Raptors will, in fact, make the playoffs.

Ball v.1.17

Stat of the Day: Toronto has wins over Cleveland and Los Angeles already this season, and they've blown games against each of those teams that they should have won as well. Regardless, Toronto is one of only 8 teams in the NBA to have beaten the two best teams in the league this season:

Charlotte (has beaten Cle 3 times already)

Dallas (has beaten LA twice)

Boston

Houston

Memphis

Orlando

Toronto

Utah

What do I take from this? Maybe Stephen Jackson is the only person crazy enough in the NBA to take on LeBron and win... a Charlotte-Cleveland 1st round series could be pretty interesting.

Ball v.1.16

Here is a list of the 25 highest-paid players in the NBA, sorted by how far they've gone in the playoffs:

WON NBA TITLE
Ray Allen
Kobe Bryant
Tim Duncan
Kevin Garnett
Pau Gasol
Shaquille O'Neal
Paul Pierce
Dwyane Wade

(interesting note ((to me)): Tim Duncan is the only player listed above to have won the title playing without anyone else on the list)

NBA FINALIST
Dwight Howard
LeBron James
Rashard Lewis
Kenyon Martin
Dirk Nowitzki

CONFERENCE FINALIST
Carmelo Anthony
Joe Johnson
Andrei Kirilenko
Jermaine O'Neal
Amare Stoudemire

2ND ROUND
Gilbert Arenas
Vince Carter
Yao Ming

NEVER WON A PLAYOFF SERIES
Chris Bosh
Tracy McGrady
Michael Redd

So, how many ways can we put this: Over half of the 25 highest paid players in the league have played in the NBA Finals... Even Vince Carter has won a playoff series before and Chris Bosh hasn't...

Here's one other thing I noticed: If there's one common denominator between the guys at the top of this list, contrasted with the guys at the bottom, it's that almost all of the guys at the top are great players on both ends on the floor, while the guys at the bottom are somewhat one-dimensional.

Ball v.1.15

I've come to grips with the fact the Raptors will keep Jarrett Jack as their starting point guard. I've gone through the all the required "steps":

Denial - This is when I thought the starting lineup was just a temporary thing while Calderon returned to 100%...

Anger - This is when the Raptors were going through their hot stretch and everyone thought Jarrett Jack was the greatest thing since sliced bread...

Bargaining - I tried finding any statistic to prove to someone that Jarrett Jack was not a good point guard... no one listened.

Depression - I didn't post for weeks on end. I even made up a story about going to the Olympics to justify my lack of work.

Acceptance - This is where I'm at now. Jarrett Jack is Toronto's starting point guard. I've moved on.

And this is what I've moved on to (and something I won't give up on this season): It's time to sit DeMar DeRozan down for this season. I've talked about it before, and I won't give up on it. It just makes too much sense. Here are the arguments:

1. It's too hard to be a rookie guard in this league - Among the playoff contending teams in the East, there's only one successful rookie guard (Brandon Jennings), and even he has hit a massive wall of late. The Raptors can't afford to be playing someone who's in over his head, and DeRozan clearly is...

2. He's lost the one other trick in his bag - Other than driving to the net, the only other thing DeRozan does offensively is take long 2s. Other than the fact that those are the most inefficient shots in basketball, DeRozan is also the worst in the league among shooting guards when it comes to those shots... take a look:

LONG TWO-POINT JUMPERS FG%
AMONG SHOOTING GUARDS

D. DeRozan 34%
K. Martin 35%
J. Stackhouse 37%
D. Jones 38%
D. Wade 38%
M. Ellis 38%
*min 4 att per 40 min

Here's the thing too... Martin, Wade, & Ellis probably take the majority of these shots under extreme defensive pressure, compared to DeRozan, Stack, and Dahntay Jones, who probably were taking open Js.

3. He's the least effective player on the Raptors, according to one metric - If you gauge by on-court plus/minus, no one has been less useful for Toronto this season:

ON COURT +/-
PER 48 MINS

Wright 2.3
Johnson 2.2
Belinelli 1.2
Bosh 0.8
Weems 0.8
Calderon 0.7
Evans 0.0
Jack -1.5
Bargnani -1.6
Turkoglu -2.2
DeRozan -6.0

This is obviously not the be-all and end-all when it comes to statistics. However, one thing is striking about this list: All of the players fall within a certian range (-2.5 to 2.5). It's a five-point range which pretty much says, "We're all NBA players, and when we're on the floor over the course of a full season, you're not going to win or lose by too much." And then there's DeRozan... 6 points per 48 minutes... that's insane. And it's way too much of a hole to be giving up when playoff spots are on the line.

THE SOLUTION

I'm so jacked about this problem, I'm going to give you the goods on three possible solutions. If you hold the four other spots of the starting lineup constant (Jack, Turkoglu, Bosh, Bargnani), and just look at the stats of the five-man units for all of the possible shooting guards, here is what you get:

DeRozan 314 mins, -72, 102 off eff, 113 def eff
Weems 83 mins, +4, 106 off eff, 110 def eff
Belinelli 39 mins, +24, 138 off eff, 117 def eff
Wright 35 mins, +6, 124 off eff, 104 def eff

Weems, Belinelli, and Wright have all been relatively successful playing with the starting lineup (with all the obvious notes about sample size and not accounting for competition). Belinelli or Wright provide the stronger offensive punches, Weems or Wright provide the best defensive punches.

One thing is for sure: DeRozan provides the worst overall option.

Ball v.1.14

Addendum to Stat of the Day:

Only 5 players in NBA history have ever averaged 24 points and 10 rebounds per game while also shooting over 50% from the field and 80% from the line:

Larry Bird 1984-85

Bob Lanier 1976-77

Julius Erving 1975-76

Bob McAdoo 1974-75

Oscar Robertson 1962-63

My point? Other than that these are also all Hall of Famers... Chris Bosh is having a once-in-a-generation season, and will join some pretty exclusive company if he can improve his free throw shooting (79%) by just a bit.

Ball v.1.13

Stat of the Day:

Only 13 players in NBA history have ever averaged at least 24 points and 11 rebounds in a season, while also shooting at least 52% from the field... they are:

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (7x)

Charles Barkley (4x)

Walt Bellamy

Wilt Chamberlain (6x)

Patrick Ewing

Artis Gilmore

Bob Lanier (2x)

Karl Malone (5x)

Moses Malone (2x)

Bob McAdoo (2x)

Shaquille O'Neal (8x)

Hakeem Olajuwon (2x)

David Robinson (2x)

Only one of those players (Gilmore) is not a current or future member of the Hall of Fame.

My point? Chris Bosh (24.5 pts, 11.4 reb, 52.5 fg%) is having a once-in-a-generation type season.

The last non-Shaq (i.e. non-freak-of-nature) season like this was Olajuwon's 93-94 campaign, which is generally regarded as one of the best seasons ever by a post player.

That's all I'm saying.

Ball v.1.12

To further the points made in my previous post:

The most common theme about Toronto's resurgence in the middle part of the season was that their defence improved. It did, but again, this has more to do with schedule than anything else. Consider:

During the 11-17 start:

• Toronto opponents had an average offensive efficiency rank of 15th in the NBA
• They faced 11 teams ranked in the top 10 offensively (39%)

During the following 20-7 stretch:

• Toronto opponents had an average defensive efficiency rank of 20th in the NBA
• They faced 3 teams ranked in the top 10 offensively (11%)

During the latest 0-4 stretch:

• Toronto opponents had an average offensive efficiency rank of 9th in the NBA
• They faced 2 teams ranked in the top 10 offensively (50%)

So, start of the season, they faced a good-to-great offensive team nearly every other game, and middle of the season, they faced a good-to-great offensive team once every 10 games.

If that doesn't explain everything you need to know about the Raptors season, well, then... (insert witty comment here).

Ball v.1.11

The Olympics were a once-in-a-lifetime experience, and a once-in-a-lifetime workload. I'm exhausted, and honestly, I wasn't very interested in what the Raptors were doing during the Games.

Quick aside: To those "hardcore" hoops writers that thought it gave them cred that they were more interested in a Golden State-L.A. game than a home-country Olympics... get some perspective. First, it doesn't make your writing or your insight any better. Second, it's just stupid.

Now, to the Raptors. I don't think anyone should be surprised by this stretch of play. If anything, I think the Bosh injury will be a detriment to the (numerous) delusional Raptor fans. They'll use the injury as an excuse for these losses, when in reality, the team probably would have lost most of these games regardless. Here's the cold hard truth:

1. The Raptors aren't as bad as their 11-17 start.
2. The Raptors aren't as good as the 18-6 stretch that followed.

The common denominator between those two points is the schedule. In the early part of the season, the Raptors had a very hard schedule. In the middle portion of the year, they had a very easy schedule. It really is as simple as that.

You can give the Raptors credit for beating teams they're supposed to beat. Toronto is 20-5 against teams with losing records...

STAT OF THE DAY: Only the Bucks (21-7) and Lakers (24-4) have more wins against losing teams this season.

But the flip side to that equation is Toronto's record against good teams. They have just 11 wins against winning teams this season.

FLIP SIDE STAT OF THE DAY: Toronto (11-23) ranks 22nd in the NBA in wins against winning teams.

OUTLOOK

Looking at Toronto's stretch run in this context, they have 23 games remaining, 11 against losing teams, and 12 against winning teams. Assuming their season-long winning percentages against losing & winning teams stays relatively consistent, that would suggest a 43-39 year-end record for the Raptors.

MY TAKE

That model is assuming the Raptors continue to shred losing teams at an 80% clip, while also going 4-8 in the following games:

@ LAKERS
@ BLAZERS
HAWKS
THUNDER
JAZZ
NUGGETS
@ HEAT
@ BOBCATS
@ CAVALIERS
CELTICS
@ HAWKS
BULLS

Not be Dennis Downer, but I don't see four wins coming out of that.

My prediction: Toronto goes on a season-ending downturn (aggravated by Chris Bosh, Hedo Turkoglu, and Jose Calderon's struggles with staying healthy), ending with a 41-41 or 40-42 record.